Wednesday, October 12, 2016
Is The Fed Delaying The Day Of Reckoning? / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The FED and the Corporate World understand that there is NO economic recovery. They need to keep feeding this ‘bull market’ with plenty of accommodative easing or this ‘bull’ will die. The FED will do whatever it takes to maintain this by cutting rates to near zero and below so as to spruce up the economy. However, these conventional policies that are being applied, by the FED, will not work seeing as the ‘deflationary forces’ have gained momentum. Global economies cannot sustain rate hikes. They will continue to use ‘expansionary monetary policy’, indefinitely: (https://finance.yahoo.com/n...).
Tuesday, October 11, 2016
Confirmed Stock Market Sell Signals / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX has crossed beneath the bottom trendline of the Triangle formation. This confirms the trend change in SPX.
ZeroHedge points out that the Risk Parity trade is deleveraging this morning, causing the breakdown. This practice is akin to the “portfolio insurance” used up to the crash of 1987, but with leverage, since yields are so low.
This may be a fast-developing situation, as each level of breakdown instigates more selling. There is a vicious feedback loop that may be unstoppable until selling is exhausted. That may take SPX beneath the February 12 low at 1810.10.
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Tuesday, October 11, 2016
For How Long Can OPEC Talk Up Oil Prices? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Not a day passes without OPEC making oil and gas headlines, and today is surely no exception. Seemingly in lockstep with OPEC, the market is once again pacified on the promise that changes to the global oil supply glut are a' comin'. Yesterday, the Wall Street Journal quoted anonymous sources close to the matter who had it on good authority that the Saudi's were willing to cut "up to" 400,000 barrels per day (and that they had planned to do so all along, with or without an OPEC agreement). We can assume this figure is off August or September levels, which are near-record highs for the oil-rich country.
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Tuesday, October 11, 2016
Hillary Deceit, Debt, Delusions / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: James_Quinn
“While every group has certain economic interests identical with those of all groups, every group has also, as we shall see, interests antagonistic to those of all other groups. While certain public policies would in the long run benefit everybody, other policies would benefit one group only at the expense of all other groups. The group that would benefit by such policies, having such a direct interest in them, will argue for them plausibly and persistently. It will hire the best buyable minds to devote their whole time to presenting its case. And it will finally either convince the general public that its case is sound, or so befuddle it that clear thinking on the subject becomes next to impossible.”
― Henry Hazlitt, Economics in One Lesson
Tuesday, October 11, 2016
Child Savings Accounts Face Gruelling Interest Rate Cuts / Personal_Finance / Savings Accounts
By: MoneyFacts
It is unusual to see a mass of rate cuts on children’s savings accounts, but the latest research by Moneyfacts.co.uk reveals this is exactly what’s happening. More than 100 rate cuts have been made over the course of 2016 to child savings accounts, so much so that some deals are now paying as little as 0.10% per year.
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Tuesday, October 11, 2016
Trump Support Crashes to New Low of 6.4 on Betfair Odds Betting Market / Politics / US Presidential Election 2016
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Trump's 2nd debate bounce that had seen Trump rally on Betfair's betting market from a low of 6.2 just prior to the debate to a post debate high of 4.8 has already apparently evaporated with Trump support literally crashing to a new low of 6.4 (current 6.2) as punters pile into placing bets on Hillary Clinton to win who now stands at a Betfair market price of just 1.21, her highest standing ever, which translates into just a £21 potential profit on every £100 bet, against Trump where every £100 converts into a potential £520 profit!
Tuesday, October 11, 2016
The World Is Turning Dangerously Insular / Economics / Global Economy
By: John_Mauldin
A toxic mix of short-sighted policy and isolationist politics is endangering the global economy.
In his recent talk at the Strategic Investment Conference 2016, David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff argues that there are growing threats looming over the global economy.
He believes that current macroeconomic and political trends could lead to serious problems in China, and especially Europe, in the not too distant future.
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Tuesday, October 11, 2016
The US Needs a Robust Infrastructure Spending Program / Stock-Markets / Infrastructure
By: John_Mauldin
I’ve been quite hard on central bank leaders lately, and rightly so. But once in a while, a central banker says something that makes sense. When it happens, I want to be fair and highlight it.
Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz gave an unusually coherent Sept. 20 speech called Living for Lower with Longer. The “lower” refers to lower interest rates. He discussed some of the broader factors contributing to the extended low-rate environment.
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Tuesday, October 11, 2016
Stock Market Debate Rally...Still Nowhere....Still Bullish.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Jack_Steiman
Last night we had the second debate between Clinton and Trump. The market wants the status quo because if Trump wins, he said he would remove fed Yellen. That's not what this stock market wants. It wants Yellen since she, and she alone, is responsible for quite a bit of the wealth most have in stock market gains over the past many years. If she goes away, it is quite likely rates will go up quite fast and kill the market. The market wants a democrat since this will make certain that Yellen will remain in office, and, thus, the world of low rates and, therefore, more Disneyland is possible.
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Tuesday, October 11, 2016
Presidential Election and Bear 'Super-Cycle' Stifle Growth in Markets / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: The_Gold_Report
Contrary to what a number of gold bugs have observed, other experts believe recent drops in the gold price are not a bull market correction, but rather reflect a market stuck in a commodity bear "super-cycle." Coupled with a gloomy end-of-year outlook for stock markets, precious metals and miners could be in for a rough Q4.
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Tuesday, October 11, 2016
Stock Market Downside Possibilities / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Brad_Gudgeon
The stock market rallied on Monday out of the 8 TD low on Friday. The 8 TD low is acting more like a 4 TD low. The dominant has once again become sub-dominant. The market looks as though it wants to curl over this week into Thursday. Downside possibilities are the low to mid 2130’s to as low as the 2102/07 area SPX.
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Tuesday, October 11, 2016
An American Tragedy: Trump Won Big / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: Raul_I_Meijer
If the US presidential debate last night showed anything, it must be that just about everyone has dug themselves into their trenches and had no desire whatsoever to ever came out.
This seemed especially clear on the Hillary side, which appeared to include -to an extent- ‘moderators’ Anderson Cooper and Martha Raddatz, judging from their interruptions. But, granted, they were the only biased side in the discussion, so we don’t really know what trenches the Republicans have dug.
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Tuesday, October 11, 2016
What in the World Happened to Gold and Silver Prices Last Week? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: MoneyMetals
By Clint Siegner : Gold and silver prices charged higher during the first 6 months of the year. They fell into a rut over the summer, and then hit the skids last Tuesday. Lots of bullion investors are wondering what in the world happened. There are three primary factors driving this price correction.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 10, 2016
This Past Week in Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: The_Gold_Report
Technical analyst Jack Chan charts the latest movement in the gold and silver markets, noting the cycle has reversed down.
Monday, October 10, 2016
Stock Market Shades of August 2015 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
You may recall that we saw a Triangle formation going into the August 2015 flash crash decline. This time it’s capped by an Orthodox Broadening Top formation that has the potential for a much larger decline.
In addition, the time from the top of Wave A to today’s top is exactly 12.9 market days. From the 2187.87 high to the 2179.99 high was 8.6 market days. The time from the August 15 high at 2193.01 to the high at 2187.87 was 17.2 market days.
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Monday, October 10, 2016
Bubble Blind Central Bankers / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: Michael_Pento
Fed Head Janet Yellen is keeping alive the tradition of her predecessors, Messrs. Greenspan and Bernanke, by showing she is equally as blind-sighted to the bubbles central banks are blowing in the bond and equity markets. During her September press conference, Ms. Yellen stubbornly clung to the misconception that it is only possible to tell if a bubble exists after it bursts. And because of this delusion, in Yellen's eyes ninety-six months of a virtual Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) is merely, and I quote, "a modest degree of accommodation." Her blinders are so opaque that she claims to see, "no signs of leverage building up." And her feckless ability to spot market imbalances even resulted in this doozy of a Yellen quote: "In general, I would not say that asset valuations are out of line with historical norms."
Monday, October 10, 2016
Gold Trading COT Report “Means Lower – Then Much Higher – Prices Coming” / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: GoldCore
The gold trading Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released Friday, shows the peculiarly timed gold sell off and much needed wash out of speculative longs out of the gold futures market last week sets gold up for lower prices, prior to moving higher again.
Monday, October 10, 2016
No Clear Short-Term Direction, Will Stocks Continue Higher? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Paul_Rejczak
Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,210, and profit target at 2,050, S&P 500 index).
Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook is neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral
Monday, October 10, 2016
Bank Current Account Overdraft Fees Hit a High, Attacking Careful Customers / Personal_Finance / Mortgages
By: MoneyFacts
Moneyfacts UK Mortgage Trends Treasury Report data, not yet published, highlights that the average two-year tracker rate has increased by 0.07% in just one month, bringing the figures back to July 2016’s level and cancelling out the “base rate effect”.
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Monday, October 10, 2016
Commodities, Forex and Stock Market Forecasts / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016
By: Ken_Ticehurst
We are getting closer to our long forecast drop in the commodities complex with the possibility of some important lows next year. WTI is still putting in a top, the dead cat bounce that has lasted throughout this year is running out of steam and we should see the push for lower lows over the next couple of months and in to 2017.