Monday, January 09, 2017

UK Mortgage Trends Treasury Report – Largest fall in BTL products since 2009 / Housing-Market / Buy to Let

By: MoneyFacts

Moneyfacts UK Mortgage Trends Treasury Report data, not yet published, highlights a significant drop in the number of buy-to-let (BTL) mortgage products, with 74 deals having been withdrawn from the market in just one month.

Monday, January 09, 2017

Agri-Stocks and Agri-Food Prices: Both Strong / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities

By: Ned_W_Schmidt

When has food been more valuable than technology? Aside from all of history, that was especially true in 2016. Chart below is our Investment Scoreboard for 2016. In it are portrayed the returns for a variety of important market measures. Gold stocks, Silver, oil, and Agri-Equities clearly owned the year. Agri-Equities, number four in chart, substantially outperformed most of the equity markets. In 2016 food was clearly more valuable than those tired, old, over owned technology and internet stocks as indicated by the NASDAQ 100 being far down in the list.

Monday, January 09, 2017

Will Obama's 'Good War' in Afghanistan Continue? / Politics / Afghanistan

By: Dr_Ron_Paul

Last week, as the mainstream media continued to obsess over the CIA's evidence-free claim that the Russians hacked the presidential election, President Obama quietly sent 300 US Marines back into Afghanistan's Helmand Province. This is the first time in three years that the US military has been sent into that conflict zone, and it represents a final failure of Obama's Afghanistan policy. The outgoing president promised that by the end of his second term, the US military would only be present in small numbers and only on embassy duty. But more than 8,000 US troops will remain in Afghanistan as he leaves office.

Monday, January 09, 2017

Gold Stocks Leading but Approaching Trump Resistance Levels / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2017

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Although we expected a rally in the gold mining sector, we have been surprised by its strength and recent buying pressure. From the lowest ticks, Gold has rallied less than 6% but GDX has gained 25% and GDXJ has soared 36%. This rebound adds to the evidence that the gold stocks are leading the metal. That being said, the gold stocks are approaching some strong resistance levels which coincide with Trump's election victory.

Monday, January 09, 2017

The Two Hottest Commodities For Investors In 2017 / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2017

By: OilPrice_Com

Monday, January 09, 2017

Gold Price US$700? OR US$7000? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Kelsey_Williams

Does either of the above preclude the other?  In other words, if we expect gold to reach $7000 per ounce, and we are correct, does that mean that we can’t reasonably expect gold to go as low as $700 per ounce? Conversely, if we are predicting or expecting gold to continue its current decline, and even breach $1000 per ounce on the downside, can $7000 per ounce, or anything even remotely close to that number, be a reasonable possibility?  

Monday, January 09, 2017

Stock Market Tad More Distribution Needed / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend: If the market strength persists, the long-term trend may need to be re-evaluated.

SPX Intermediate trend: SPX intermediate P&F count to 2300 is still possible before a reversal occurs.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily-basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.

Monday, January 09, 2017

PM Theresa May Fears Donald Trump Will Grab Her by the P#ssy When they Meet / Politics / UK Politics

By: Nadeem_Walayat

In a candid interview with Sky news British Prime Minister Theresa May in addition to covering the usual hot topics of BrExit and the NHS, was asked by Sophy Ridge on her thoughts about meeting Donald Trump given that it is on the record that he likes to grab women by the P#ssy.

Sunday, January 08, 2017

Will Donald Trump Defy Expectations and Be a Peace President? / Politics / US Politics

By: Stephen_Lendman

It’s hardly likely given America’s rage for endless wars, gorging on them. Neocons infesting Washington demand them.

Enemies are invented to accommodate them. War profiteers depend on them. The indifferent public does nothing to demand they stop.

Yet what US leader in memory said getting along with Russia “is a good thing, not a bad thing. Only ‘stupid’ people, or fools, would think that it is bad!” If Trump follows through on this rhetoric, imagine the possibilities for change.

Sunday, January 08, 2017

The Trump Stock Market Bubble / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Mike_Whitney

Donald Trump has a plan for dealing with the stock market bubble. Make it bigger.

Before the election candidate Trump blasted Federal Reserve chairman Janet Yellen for keeping interest rates too low for too long to keep the economy humming along while Obama was still in office. The president elect accused Yellen of being politically motivated suggesting that the Fed’s policies had put the country at risk of another stock market Crash like 2008.

Sunday, January 08, 2017

In a Lawless World, Rules STILL Matter / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Andy_Sutton

While economics is a science and should be treated as such, economic forecasting is both a science and an art at the same time. However, anyone can forecast. Just like anyone can forecast the weather. To do so accurately and furthermore to do so frequently is a true talent. We think of it along the lines of the ability to hit a major league fastball; a gift granted to maybe 1 in 500 or a thousand babies each year. Then add to that the ability to hit a major league fastball for an average of .300 over an entire career and we’re talking a few babies in an entire generation.

Sunday, January 08, 2017

The Trump Reset War With China: 2. The Putin Doctrine / Politics / US Politics

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Trump's US election win amounts to a pressing of the RESET button on that which has passed for at least the past 40 years. Which demands a reappraisal of virtually everything to ascertain not just the impact of Trump but the trend reversal / rebellion underway amongst Western populations against the ruling elites that will impact on the mega-trend drivers of financial market trends for many years if not decades to come.

Sunday, January 08, 2017

Obama Has 14 Days To Start World War III / Politics / WW3

By: Jeff_Berwick

Barack O’Bomber was nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize before he even became President. And he hasn’t had one day of peace in his eight years.

And, he now has 14 days left and appears to be trying to foment World War III with his remaining opportunity.

Long ago O’Bomber accepted the Nobel Peace Prize, but didn’t do anything to either justify or deserve it. More recently he’s actually done a lot to repudiate it.

Sunday, January 08, 2017

China Potentially Threatens a Near Term Us Treasury Bond Market Short Squeeze! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Gordon_T_Long

Problems in China are looming on top of an already very tenuous and misunderstood situation in the US Financial Markets. Additionally, Federal Reserve Policy has made the situation even more combustible!

As a result of a Trump Victory inspired bond market massacre there are now few places that a yield starved world can presently find better risk-adjusted yields than in US Treasuries. With China now being forced to sell their FX Reserves and thereby creating  the much needed supply so eagerly craved by foreign investors, it is also further depleting an already restricted EuroDollar pool required to buy this supply. There are consequences of this combination of shifting global parameters.

Sunday, January 08, 2017

Government Bail-ins, Asset Confiscations and the Gold Sword of Self Defense / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2017

By: Stewart_Dougherty

[Preface: In Part 1 of our report, “Goldman to Trump: Situation Assessment, Government Bail-ins and the Precious Metals Threat,” we inferred what Goldman Sachs’s second in command Gary Cohn might have said to President-elect Trump during their meeting on November 29, 2016. Cohn met again with Mr. Trump on December 2, 2016, and this time, we have inferred that he was accompanied by a second person. Here is Part 2 of our intuited, fictional report.]

Mr. Cohn: It is a pleasure to see you once again, Mr. Trump. I have been pre-empted. I was asked by important friends of our firm to introduce to you their envoy, Dr. Hugo Ehrlich. I can vouch for the fact that he represents extraordinarily powerful people with whom you will be working closely going forward. Let me turn it over to Dr. Ehrlich so he can explain.”

Sunday, January 08, 2017

Soft Commodities and the SPX Stocks Bull Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Tony_Caldaro

The week started on Tuesday at SPX 2239. The market gapped up to start the week, hit SPX 2264, sold off to 2245, then gapped up on Wednesday to hit 2273. Thursday the market pulled back to SPX 2260. Then on Friday the SPX made all-time new highs at 2282. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 1.45%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 2.95%. Economic reports for the week were slightly positive. On the downtick: the ADP, monthly payrolls, unemployment, factory orders, plus the trade deficit increased. On the uptick: construction spending, ISM manufacturing, auto sales, the WLEI, the Q4 GDP estimate, plus weekly jobless claims declined. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by retail sales, business/wholesale inventories and consumer credit.

Saturday, January 07, 2017

Now Is the Time to Face Reality and Invest in Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: David_Galland

Stephen McBride writes: Since reaching multi-year highs in July, gold has plummeted 17%. Having risen 22% in the first seven months of 2016, many believed the yellow metal had moved too far, too fast.

They were right.

Gold’s fall quickened post-election, caused by an uptick in optimism about America’s future. The economy was seen as ready to “take-off” in 2017 once Trump’s pro-growth policies kicked in. The Fed’s December rate hike just added fuel to the fire.

Saturday, January 07, 2017

The World Is Entering a “Localism” Era / Politics / Social Issues

By: John_Mauldin

BY PATRICK WATSON : Against all odds, we made it through 2016.

I think future historians will call last year the, “Year of Shattered Concepts.” Obvious truths proved false, and unstoppable trends stopped.

Globalization is a prime example.

The idea that free trade and technology would merge the planet into one Giant Happy Global Economy is mortally wounded. The incoming Trump administration may well deliver the coup de grâce.

Saturday, January 07, 2017

DOW Breaths FIRE on Dow 20k, Stock Market New All Time Trading High 19,999.63 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Dow after a 2 week holiday break on Friday finally re-attempted to break above the stocks bull market mega-milestone of 20,000, by literally breathing fire on 20k for the whole of the trading session, trading to a high of 19,999.63 early in the session, retreating to close at 19,963. The Dow literally cannot get much closer than reaching 20k than 19,999.63 without actually touching it! A remarkable trading session taking the Dow within a cats whisker of achieving 20k.

Saturday, January 07, 2017

4 Reasons the Trump Stock Market Rally Has No Legs / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: David_Galland

US equity markets are already factoring in Trump’s promised reforms, while bond markets are pricing in higher inflation.

There’s just one thing: Trump hasn’t done anything yet. We’re still weeks away from his inauguration, and details of his economic plans remain scarce.

Investors seem to take potential positives for economic growth (lower taxes, deregulation, and fiscal stimulus) at face value, but ignore the potential negatives (soaring deficits, tariffs, and trade wars).