Tuesday, January 24, 2017
How Bond Market Investors Were Fooled Twice / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: EWI
The Commercials and Large Speculators are routinely on the opposite sides of trades
Most investors, including large groups of professional money managers, extrapolate financial trends into the future. So they're often completely caught off guard when a trend changes.
[Editor's Note: The text version of the story is below.]
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Tuesday, January 24, 2017
Gold price to 2 month high as fiery Trump declares New American Order / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: GoldCore
– ‘Trumponomics’: Politics and economic policy in 140 characters
– The ‘intelligence’ according to Trump
– Trump, Putin and Russia – the great bromance
– Trump – Bull in a China shop
– Trade and currency wars with China and other nations
– Trump – Fan of gold and golden tweets
– Conclusion – Trump may be the ‘Golden Ticket’
Tuesday, January 24, 2017
Why Gold Is Oddly Looking Bullish / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Nicholas_Kitonyi
The price of gold appears to be on yet another homerun after eight weeks of decline. The price of the yellow metal has been on an upward trending movement since December 23, 2016 amid the growing uncertainty on the potential impact of President Donald Trump’s policies on the stock market.Since the turn of the year, the US stock market has exhibited mixed reactions to Trump’s pre-and-post inauguration period, with America’s 45th president’s activity swinging the market up and down on a weekly basis.
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Tuesday, January 24, 2017
EURO, GBP, AUD, JPY, CAD C.O.T Reports / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Enda_Glynn
The Commitments of Traders Report is issued by CFTC.
It reports all open positions in futures markets of three main groups of traders:
Commercial Traders – Hedgers
Non-Commercial Traders – Money Managers
Non-Reportable – Retail market
The report breaks down each Tuesday’s Open Interest and gives us a powerful view on what exactly the big guys have been doing in the marketplace and what their plans might be.
It is issued every Friday and includes data from Tuesday to Tuesday. The three days prior to the release date are not included.
This is an essential tool for gauging long term sentiment in futures markets.
Monday, January 23, 2017
Building Societies are Winning the Mortgage Interest Rate War / Interest-Rates / Mortgages
By: MoneyFacts
With competition still fierce in the mortgage market and many banks claiming to launch the lowest products ever on their records, many borrowers could assume that the mortgage rates from these providers will be significantly lower than those offered elsewhere. However, Moneyfacts.co.uk research shows that building societies are the winners when it comes to the mortgage rate war.
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Monday, January 23, 2017
Trump's Foreign Policy An Unwise Inconsistency? / Politics / US Politics
By: Dr_Ron_Paul
Throughout the presidential campaign, Donald Trump's foreign policy positions have been anything but consistent. One day we heard that NATO was obsolete and the US needs to pursue better relations with Russia. But the next time he spoke, these sensible positions were abandoned or an opposite position was taken. Trump's inconsistent rhetoric left us wondering exactly what kind of foreign policy he would pursue if elected.
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Monday, January 23, 2017
United States Common Sense - 2017 / Politics / US Politics
By: James_Quinn
In Part One of this article I explored Thomas Paine's critical role in the creation of our nation. His Common Sense pamphlets inspired the common people to uncommon acts of courage and heroic feats of valor; leading to the great experiment we call the United States of America. Paine, Franklin and the other Founding Fathers produced a republic, if we could keep it.
John Adams championed the new Constitution precisely because it would not create a democracy, as he knew a democracy "soon wastes, exhausts and murders itself." Their herculean efforts, sacrifices, and bloodshed have been for naught as we allowed our republic to devolve into a democracy and ultimately into our current corporate fascist warfare/welfare surveillance state. Sadly, we were unable to keep the republic Franklin and his fellow revolutionaries gave us.
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Monday, January 23, 2017
Is Dow 20,000 a Bridge Too Far? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: If the market strength persists, the long-term trend may need to be re-evaluated.
SPX Intermediate trend: SPX intermediate P&F count to 2300 is still possible before a reversal occurs.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily-basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
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Monday, January 23, 2017
Gold And Interest Rates…GET IT STRAIGHT / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Kelsey_Williams
Over the past couple of months there have been several headline articles regarding the relationship between gold and interest rates. Most of them are well-meaning attempts to convey information about recent changes in the markets as interest rates head higher.
In several instances, however, the author(s) have tried to explain a ‘perceived’ correlation between rising interest rates and the value of the US dollar – in a very positive manner. And they have imputed a similar correlation – albeit negative – in other statements with respect to Gold. In both cases they are incorrect.
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Monday, January 23, 2017
Trumping World Trade / Economics / Protectionism
By: Dan_Steinbock
After the inauguration, President Trump has begun to reset the White House trade policies. But the consequences of “America First” stance in world trade are wrought with threats.
Recently, President Xi Jinping gave a strong speech about the need for more inclusive globalization at Davos. World trade is a case in point.
Monday, January 23, 2017
Protection Will Lead to Great Prosperity / Economics / Protectionism
By: Gary_Tanashian
After being mostly off the grid on Friday, I listened to the Trump inauguration speech on Saturday morning. While I have lots of thoughts and opinions, I want to focus on an item where I am qualified; namely my former area of expertise as someone who was in essence told by the media over and over again "you don't exist", while the consumerist, financialized and globalized economy flourished. By "you" I of course mean me, an owner of a small American manufacturing business. My area of focus from the speech...
Monday, January 23, 2017
The New Gold Rush Of 2017! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Gold to Regain Its Gleam!
One question that gold investors are asking now is, will 2017 be as spectacular for the yellow metal as it was in 2016? The short and sweet answer to this is YES.
The dollar, gold and the major U.S. stock exchanges will all see new highs. Gold is currently in a “complex corrective correction” while experiencing its’ last pullback, beforehand.
Both the short-term outlook and the long-term outlook for gold is BULLISH! Trumps’ victory win is a positive for gold bulls. Policy uncertainty and slowing growth, following a Trump win, will stoke the yellow metals’ price in 2017.
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Monday, January 23, 2017
HBO HOMELAND Bet on HIllary Clinton Winning US Election and LOST / Politics / Mainstream Media
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The new series of HBO's award winning HOMELAND began Sunday that onc more paints the CIA as fighting the good fight across the globe against threats to America. However, wishful thinking on part of the writers of Hillary winning the election did not quite pan out that way. So within 10 minutes of the start of episode 1 we see a sane President Elect understanding HER brief and having valid questions of the lead actors in the series about sending in 70,000 ground troops into Syria, which does not gel with the reality of President Trump who's policy is simply to "Bomb the Shit out of them".
Sunday, January 22, 2017
Stock Market New Highs For 2017? Yes, But When Do I Enter? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Chris_Vermeulen
When the SPX breaks out above its’ current resistance level, it will be the next leg up in this bull market. We are currently in a consolidation period. The SPX seems to be resting for now! The “Bollinger Bands Squeeze” is now taking hold and will result in a powerful move in either direction once broken. I do have a new BULLISH trigger for members to enter into during this amazing “melt up” that will only be shared with my ‘elite members’. I can assure you that you will want to be invested in this next BULLISH leg of the SPX!
Sunday, January 22, 2017
Active vs Passive Investing: And the Winner Is ... / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: EWI
The chart below comes from a new report from our friends at Elliott Wave International.
It's as straightforward as it looks -- not much need for animation.
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Sunday, January 22, 2017
The Epidemic of Bad Ideas / Politics / Social Issues
By: David_Galland
Dear Parader,
This week’s missive tackles a big topic. One of the biggest.
That’s because it touches virtually every corner of society: politics, the economy, investments, social order, innovation. People live or die because of it.
The topic is education.
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Sunday, January 22, 2017
Gold Futures Prices Looking Bullish / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold has rebounded sharply higher in the past month, taking the early lead as 2017’s best-performing asset class. Normally such a big gold surge would require heavy gold-futures buying by speculators. But they’ve been missing in action, barely moving any capital into gold yet. Their collective bets on this metal remain very bearish. Since they are such a strong contrarian indicator, that’s a very-bullish omen for gold.
The sole mission of speculation and investment, and thus all the endless research that feeds into it, is to multiply wealth. Traders can’t effectively buy low and sell high unless they understand what drives the prices of their trades. For years now, gold has had two overwhelmingly-dominant drivers. Their capital flows fully explain the vast majority of all gold’s price action, and thus are exceedingly important to study.
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Sunday, January 22, 2017
Great Rotation and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The performance of gold in 2017 depends largely on whether the Trump’s presidency will lead to lasting shift in the markets. What changes do we mean? Some analysts mention the reflation, others point out the ‘risk on’ sentiment and the ‘great rotation’ out of bonds and into stocks. Ray Dalio, the founder and chairman of Bridgewater, claims that the Trump’s victory was a turning point ending the period characterized by increasing globalization, free trade, and global connectedness; relatively innocuous fiscal policies; sluggish GDP growth, low inflation, and falling bond yields. The new period is believed to be characterized more by decreasing globalization, free trade, and global connectedness; aggressively stimulative fiscal policies; increased economic growth, higher inflation, and rising bond yields.
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Sunday, January 22, 2017
This Ratio Suggests Gold Is Entering a Major Bull Market / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: John_Mauldin
An often cited negative about gold is the inability for investors to value it, unlike traditional investments such as stocks and bonds.
A company’s revenues and earnings can be forecast to arrive at a valuation multiple. A bond’s cash flows can be discounted to come up with a present value. But since gold bullion does not produce either, investors often struggle with assigning a fair value.
Some will look at technical analysis, others fundamentals, interest rates, or expected inflation—but unfortunately there’s no correct answer, and attempting to time the market when choosing an entry point is extremely difficult.
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Sunday, January 22, 2017
Trump Talks Gibberish at Inauguration then Panic Runs to CIA to Prevent Assassination / Politics / US Politics
By: Nadeem_Walayat
If you thought Trump was unhinged during the election campaign then you have not seen anything yet for he is truly showing all the hallmarks of turning into an American Pyscho! First we had his inauguration speech, which was far from being presidential, a stream of gibberish inter spiced with "america first" and "make america great again", something a rebellious teenager would have put together.
Now what would a sane President have been focused on following in the inauguration? Getting ones team together to start the hard work to rebuild america? Not Trump, his first order of business was the size of the inauguration crowd!
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