Friday, March 03, 2017
Is Trump Delirium Burning the Stocks Bull Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Alt-Reality President Trumps' election victory induced delirium rather than dissipating is clearly intensifying. Whilst personally having partially succumbed to the Trump delirium hot on the heels of Britains' Brexit which implied that the approaching 8 year Dow stocks bull market target of Dow 20k was far more probable than the highly vocally often repeated view by the crash is always coming crowd. So in the run up to the probable Trump election victory my view of Dow 20k as being the most probable outcome.
Friday, March 03, 2017
This Chart Reveals How China Is Faking Its Economic Growth Figures / Economics / China Economy
By: John_Mauldin
BY KEVIN BREKKE : China ended 2016 with 6.8% annualized GDP growth for Q4 that let it log 6.7% growth for the year. Among other things, Beijing’s data divas were eager to report that fixed-asset investment (FAI) had jumped 8.1% last year.
But a quick dissection of that number reveals that a surge in FAI by state-owned enterprises (SOE) saved the year.
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Friday, March 03, 2017
Time For African Economic Miracle / Economics / Africa
By: Dan_Steinbock
In the 20th century, Africa gained political independence but fell behind economic boom. In the 21st century, it is Africa’s turn – but not without stronger state and new external push.After struggle against corruption, lawlessness and terror, President Buhari’s administration has outlined an economic recovery plan targeting 7 percent GDP growth rate from 2017 to 2020. While many African economies are hoping for takeoff in the coming years, Nigeria represents the region’s greatest economic potential.
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Friday, March 03, 2017
How Trump Versus Fed Adds to Uncertainty / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Dan_Steinbock
To implement his $1 trillion dollar infrastructure plan, President Trump needs low rates, even though the Fed’s rate hikes will strengthen dollar. That means new uncertainty worldwide.In his Crippled America (2015), Trump argued that “our airports, bridges, water tunnels, power grids, rail systems—our nation's entire infrastructure is crumbling, and we aren't doing anything about it."
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Friday, March 03, 2017
Dow 19,20,21….Faster, Faster! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Doug_Wakefield
Aren’t you glad that the Dow leaped to 21,000 today. I mean, just three weeks ago its low for the day was 20,015. In fact, on November 22, 2016 the Dow crossed 19,000 for the first time.
Yet why the hurry to get in now? The 8 year US “QE assisted” bull market has yet to see a 20% decline since 2008. In fact, since the Feb 11, 2017 low, the S&P 500 hasn’t had a weekly decline (Fri to Fri close) of even 2.5%. Even based on Goldman Sachs’ recent research we know the S&P 500 has not seen a 1% decline over the last 96 days, a feat only topped 3 times since 1980, none since 2000.
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Thursday, March 02, 2017
Dow on Fire! Is Trump Debt Delirium Burning the Stocks Bull Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Alt-Reality President Trumps' election victory induced delirium rather than dissipating is clearly intensifying. Whilst personally having partially succumbed to the Trump delirium hot on the heels of Britains' Brexit which implied that the approaching 8 year Dow stocks bull market target of Dow 20k was far more probable than the highly vocally often repeated view by the crash is always coming crowd. So in the run up to the probable Trump election victory my view of Dow 20k as being the most probable outcome. Even going a little further could be rationalised to to 20,150 which is about as far as I could extend a rationale post Trump election trend in the face of growing alarm at the real world consequences of a 'Trump Reset' Presidency, namely one of literally the US trending towards WAR with China!
Thursday, March 02, 2017
US Real Estate May Never Be the Same Again / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Harry_Dent
I expected Japan’s 67% drop in residential real estate to rebound substantially, even with its smaller, but still substantial millennial generation. But that hasn’t happened. So, I went digging to find out what was going on.I’ll admit that this had me stumped for a while… until I began to understand that real estate was different than other consumer sectors of spending. It’s obviously not a consumable like food or clothing. But it’s not like a durable product either, like cars and washing machines. Real estate, with the exception of natural disasters or human insanity (arson, wars, etc.), tends to last forever.
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Thursday, March 02, 2017
This is the Internet Revolution / Politics / Internet
By: Rodney_Johnson
In early December, I bought a 15-year-old Jeep Cherokee for my kids to drive while they were home from college. It sounds a bit outrageous when I put that in print, but my reasoning seemed sound at the time.With all of them flying home, we’d have extra drivers around for five weeks, and only my car and my wife’s car available. I could have rented one instead of buying one, but the cost was substantial and I would still be the only driver allowed. As long as the old beater held up mechanically, even with registration and sales tax, it would be a better deal to simply buy an old one and then sell it.
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Thursday, March 02, 2017
Stock Market At the Brink... / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The Markets appear to be dependent on what happens to the USD. This morning USD futures rose as high as 102.11, apparently completing the final probe of the retracement at a near Fibonacci 63%. A reversal from this high sets the wheels in motion with a decline beneath the 50-day Moving Average offering a sell signal.
Thursday, March 02, 2017
Stock Market Fake Risk, Fake Return? Market Crash? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Axel_Merk
With seemingly everyone from the blogosphere to the Tweeter-in-chief chiming in on fake news, have investors considered their risk/return profile may also be “fake”? When it comes to investing, who or what can we trust, is the market rigged, and why does it matter?
For eight years in a row now, an investment in the S&P 500 has yielded positive returns.1 In recent years, expressions like “investors buy the dips” and “low volatility” have become associated with this rally.
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Thursday, March 02, 2017
Trump Avoid Debt Crisis ? “Extremely Unlikely” says Rickards / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: GoldCore
The upcoming March 15 U.S. debt ceiling deadline is something that is being largely ignored by markets and most media for now. Despite it being just 9 trading days away. This will change in the coming days and is one of the many reasons why we are bullish on gold.
Thursday, March 02, 2017
The Myth of Gold Confiscation / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Nick_Barisheff
If we experience a debt crisis, as many economists believe is inevitable, many people believe that their holdings of gold and silver bullion will be confiscated, just as in 1933. This article reviews the probability of confiscation and compares it to other more likely measures to generate government solvency.
An appropriate starting point when addressing concerns about gold confiscation is to define the word 'confiscation.' Merriam Webster says 'to seize or buy as if by authority' and 'to seize without compensation as forfeited to the public treasury.' Almost without exception, it is expropriation that is the actual risk, not confiscation. Confiscation, as in forfeiture, is usually the result of theft, treason, insurrection, war or genocide. Expropriation is defined as 'to take (property) of an individual in the exercise of state sovereignty' (Merriam Webster). The key difference between confiscation and expropriation is the appropriate compensation of the individual for the transfer of his or her property.
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Thursday, March 02, 2017
Oil Majors' Costs Have Risen 66% Since 2011 / Commodities / Oil Companies
By: OilPrice_Com
The oil majors reported poor earnings for the fourth quarter of last year, but many oil executives struck an optimistic tone about the road ahead. Oil prices have stabilized and the cost cutting measures implemented over the past three years should allow companies to turn a profit even though crude trades for about half of what it did back in 2014.
Thursday, March 02, 2017
Stock Market New Record High, S&P 500 At 2,400 Mark / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Paul_Rejczak
Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,410, and profit target at 2,200, S&P 500 index).
Our intraday outlook is now bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook remains neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral
Thursday, March 02, 2017
Trump Before Congress / Politics / US Politics
By: Stephen_Lendman
His Tuesday address was long on making America safe for Wall Street, war profiteers and other corporate predators, short on what’s most needed to serve all Americans equitably and promote world peace.
He focused on increased military spending at a time major cuts are needed, combating terrorism without explaining ISIS and likeminded groups are US creations, used as imperial foot soldiers.
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Thursday, March 02, 2017
Have Central Banks Finally Achieved the Unthinkable, Inflation Unleashed? / Economics / Inflation
By: Graham_Summers
Globally inflation is on the rise.
On Monday Spain reported a year over year 7.5% jump in its PPI reading (a measure of inflation). Take a look at that chart.
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Thursday, March 02, 2017
SPX Rally Appears Complete / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
We can now say that the Wave structure is complete with a throw-over above the Cycle Top. We have round number resistance at the top as well. The reversal begins with the re-entry back beneath the Cycle Top, which appears to be happening now.
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Wednesday, March 01, 2017
Gold Pressured By Increasing Odds of March FED Rate Hike / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Jason_Hamlin
The gold price has corrected by roughly $25 over the past few days. This pullback has been driven by increased odds of a Fed rate hike during March. Federal Reserve officials have been making hawkish comments lately, which has been supportive of the USD index and thus bearish for precious metals. After hitting a 2017 high of $1,265 on Monday, the gold price has since dropped back to $1240 today.
On Monday the odds of a March rate hike were around 40%, but they have since increased to around 70% to 80% today. New York Fed President William Dudley told CNNMoney on Tuesday that the case for raising interest rates is growing.
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Wednesday, March 01, 2017
US Drives Global Economic Growth / Economics / Global Economy
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The US is back in the driver seat again as a sustained and growing economic powerhouse – the Trump Economy. Since the November 2016 elections, the US economic data and outlook have been driving investment in US equities as well as select foreign investment opportunities. The reduction in regulations and business friendly Trump administration seems to have unleashed the hoard of cash and opportunity of the past 7+ years. US and foreign business are, again, “wheeling and dealing” with the intent of generating greater profits and more opportunities.
Wednesday, March 01, 2017
Stocks are higher, but the Fed trumps Trump / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Good Morning!
President Trump’s speech appeared to be his most “presidential,” but was short on details.
The surging dollar and rising SPX futures give some indication that Trump is still getting the benefit of the doubt.
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