Thursday, April 20, 2017
2 Choke Points That Threaten Oil Trade Between Persian Gulf And East Asia / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: John_Mauldin
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : The flow of international trade has always been subject to geopolitical risk and conflicts. At all stages of the supply chain, trade inherently faces challenges posed by the geopolitical realities along a given route.
Some routes are more perilous and harder to navigate than others. One such trade route is the maritime path for transporting oil from Persian Gulf exporters to East Asian consumers. This route faces two major choke points that are unavoidable given geographic constraints.
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Wednesday, April 19, 2017
Stock Market Rally May be Complete / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
It has become obvious that the higher Cup with Handle formation was not triggering the sell-off that would be expected. Both the daily chart and the 2-hour chart actually show a better position for a clean Cup with Handle pattern with the Lip at 2322.25. The Broadening Wedge remains the same.
SPX appears to have halted its rally at the 50% retracement level. It remains on a sell signal with additional confirmation beneath 2322.25.
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Wednesday, April 19, 2017
Gold’s Next Downside Target Is Around $700… Even if It Breaks Up First / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Harry_Dent
Many analysts have been so excited that gold broke to new highs, above $1,262, in late February.I was excited as well, but for a different reason.
I’d forecast that gold could bounce back just above the July 2016 highs of $1,373, to around $1,400 or $1,450.
And ANY bounce, no matter how high it went, would be a good place to get rid of any gold you’re still holding.
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Wednesday, April 19, 2017
The Fed Must Be Reading Our Work / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: Rodney_Johnson
It’s too much of a coincidence. Fed officials must be reading our work.OK, they don’t really have to be… but if they don’t, they should.
It’s not that we deserve credit for what comes next at the Fed, but I was glad to read the details last week in the nitty-gritty of the Fed’s minutes of its March meeting. (You would’ve had to have read it there; Fed chair Janet Yellen didn’t talk about it at all in her post-meeting press conference.)
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Wednesday, April 19, 2017
Stock Market to Push Higher? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Gary_Savage
I suspect the market will be near the all-time highs ahead of the FOMC meeting on May 3rd.
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Wednesday, April 19, 2017
Soothing East Asia's Nerves as Trump's Administration Reaffirms US Power in Asia-Pacific / Politics / US Military
By: STRATFOR
Forecast
- U.S. Vice President Mike Pence's 10-day tour of East Asia will focus primarily on easing uncertainty among U.S. allies about the administration's policies in the region.
- U.S. moves to contain North Korea and compel China toward cooperation will dominate discussions in Seoul and Tokyo, though tension over the Trump administration's trade policies will loom large in both visits.
- Indonesia and Australia will remain wary of joining U.S. initiatives that risk provoking China but also receptive to U.S. efforts to lay the groundwork for more robust defense cooperation.
Wednesday, April 19, 2017
Stock Market Turn-Around Tuesday Closes Negative / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Harry_Boxer
It looks like turn-around Tuesday for the stock market indices today as the markets reversed yesterday, gains for losses, and pretty decent ones, too, but they did come back. The day started out with a gap down, but then a really sharp rally got them to their highs very quickly, within the first thirty minutes. At that point, they came down in a sharp, 3-wave decline, and reached their session lows by midday. An early afternoon rally back got to resistance and backed off late afternoon, and then surged into the close to reach the morning highs, but were unable to get through, and in the last five minutes they backed off.
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Wednesday, April 19, 2017
SPX May be Completing its Corrective Pattern / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Good Morning!
It appears that SPX may be completing a Wave [c] of 2 this morning. This changes the structure somewhat, postponing the top of Wave 2 until today. My original thought that the low at 2328.95 was Wave [b] was because of overlap between the waves. Leading diagonal waves may overlap, so that description is being moved forward.
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Wednesday, April 19, 2017
On the Commemoration of World War I: From Woodrow Wilson to Donald Trump / Politics / US Politics
By: Antonius_Aquinas
It is altogether fitting that the US attack on a Syrian airport, the dropping of a MOAB on defenseless Afghanistan, and the potential outbreak of nuclear war with North Korea have all come in the very month one hundred years earlier that an American president led the nation on its road to empire. President Trump’s aggressive actions and all of America’s previous imperialistic endeavors can ultimately be traced to Woodrow Wilson’s disastrous decision to bring the country into the First World War on April 6, 1917.
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Wednesday, April 19, 2017
Silver Production Has “Huge Decline” In 2nd Largest Producer Peru / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: GoldCore
– Silver production sees “huge decline” in Peru
– Production -12% in one month in 2nd largest producer
– Silver decline is due to ‘exhaustion of reserves’ in Peru
– GFMS recognise that ‘Peak Silver’ was reached in 2015
– Global silver market had large net supply deficit in 2016
– Silver rallied 13.5% in Q1 in 2017
– Base metal production accounts for 56% of silver mining
– Base metal demand under threat from global economy
– Own financial insurance of silver coins and bars
Wednesday, April 19, 2017
Silver Price Likely To Rise In A Concentrated Manner / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Hubert_Moolman
The long-term view of silver is extremely bullish, given that it is one of the most undervalued metals, today. It is evident that ideal economic conditions are present, for silver to rise for many years to come:
- All-time low interest rates, that are about to rise
- Over-valued stock markets
- Fragile international monetary system that is debt-laden to the full.
Wednesday, April 19, 2017
US Housing Market Starts Plunge 6.8% as Sentiment Soars / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Mike_Shedlock
Unless housing starts data is another one-time affair, and it could be given the volatile nature of housing starts, this recovery is nearly over just as sentiment is peaking.
Econoday notes a 6.8% decline in housing starts for March to 1.215 million units seasonally adjusted annualized (SAAR).
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Wednesday, April 19, 2017
The Brexit War - Article 50 Triggered, General Election 2017 Called - Let the Games Begin! / Politics / BrExit
By: Nadeem_Walayat
On Wednesday 29th March 2017 Theresa May's post man in Brussels hand delivered a 6 page letter to Donald Tusk the President of the European Council, triggering Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty starting the formal process for the UK exiting the European Union within 2 years' time, with the negotiations expected to begin during May following the conclusion of the French Presidential elections.
Wednesday, April 19, 2017
Tesco Collapses Into a Sink Hole, Stock Price Down 10% in 3 Trading Days! / Companies / Tesco
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Whist the mainstream media focuses on some of Tesco's latest result numbers, mostly painting a bright picture of Britain's supermarket giant recovering, with sales up for the first time in 7 years and with the SFO false accounting scandal behind it.
Tesco reports first sales growth in 7 years - FT 12th April
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Tuesday, April 18, 2017
Plungers Big Trade - The Oil Short / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Plunger
The big trade of this year positions oneself for the upcoming US recession. In speculating and investing if one can get the main concept right everything else falls into place. Various trades will branch off from this theme. The trade is not priced into the market at all since we are betting against the accepted narrative. We can use various proxies to play the trade, as just about anything economically sensitive may qualify. Base metal producers, car companies, sub prime financiers, retail establishments, the list goes on. The main vehicle I have chosen to execute the trade is the oil price. I have chosen this because both fundamentals and technicals indicate to me it is over priced and due for a fall. It trades deep and has a record of falling under distressed economic conditions.
"All that we see or seem is but a dream within a dream." - Edger Allan Poe
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Tuesday, April 18, 2017
Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Iran, North Korea, Russia, China... Will They Ever Learn? / Politics / US Military
By: DeviantInvestor
In the 1960s Peter, Paul and Mary popularized a song written by Pete Seeger – “Where Have All the Flowers Gone?”
The short version is:
Where have all the flowers gone?
Young girls have picked them.
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Tuesday, April 18, 2017
The Smart Money Is Piling Into Regenerative Medicine / Companies / BioTech
By: John_Mauldin
BY PATRICK COX : The Congressional Budget Office released its long-term budget outlook. This report should have sparked a national discussion about societal aging, but big media largely ignored it.
Fortunately, there are signs that smart investors are hedging this failure by investing in regenerative medicine (RM).
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Tuesday, April 18, 2017
If You Invest In Stocks Now, Expect No More Than 3% Returns In The Next 20 Years / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: John_Mauldin
BY JOHN MAULDIN : We didn’t have all of this big data or computing power when I started in the investment publishing industry in 1982. But we do today.
This data not only shows us the present state of the stock market, but also tells what that means in terms of probable returns over the coming 7, 10, and 12 years and what it means in terms of relative risks.
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Tuesday, April 18, 2017
Maps That Explain Wars In The Middle East And North Africa / Politics / Middle East
By: John_Mauldin
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : The Middle East and North Africa region runs from the Atlantic Ocean to the Indian Ocean and from Turkey to Yemen. The bulk of the region is along five waterways: The Mediterranean Sea, Red Sea, Persian Gulf, Black Sea, and Caspian Sea.
Here are four maps that explain the dynamics and inherited divisions in these regions. (Download my FREE e-book, The World Explained in Maps, to get more insight into the forces shaping our physical and financial worlds.)
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Tuesday, April 18, 2017
Theresa May Calls Snap BrExit UK General Election Capitalising on Crippled Labour Party / Politics / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Theresa May surprises everyone by calling a BrExit snap UK General Election on 8th June 2017. And this really is a surprise to all because previously she has repeatedly stated that she would not be calling an early general election. Instead in a statement today she made clear that her slender majority in the House of Commons was not large enough to secure a strong BrExit outcome for the United Kingdom.