Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, February 03, 2013
Stock Market Uptrend Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Tony_Caldaro
Despite the FOMC meeting, a negative Q4 GDP, the monthly Payrolls report, and a number of other economic indicators this market was not volatile at all. The entire range for the week was SPX 1496-1514, a bit more than 1%. For the week the SPX/DOW were +0.75%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.95%. Asian markets gained 1.3%, European markets lost 1.6%, and the DJ World index gained 0.7%. On the economic front positive reports outpaced negative reports 12 to 5. On the uptick: durable goods orders, the Chicago PMI, ISM manufacturing, Case-Shiller, construction spending, personal income/spending, the payrolls report, the ADP index, consumer sentiment, auto sales, and the WLEI improved. On the downtick: pending home sales, consumer confidence, and Q4 GDP, plus the unemployment rate and weekly jobless claims rose. Next week is a much lighter week with only five economic reports with ISM services and Consumer credit highlighting the week.
Sunday, February 03, 2013
Stock Market Bull Rages On.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Jack_Steiman
I don't think anyone reading this letter tonight would argue that the bull market is raging along, overbought or not. Even the most bearish of traders has to realize, at this moment in time, the bulls are in full control of things. How can you argue with this type of price action? If you have, and you've been shorting, you are undoubtedly feeling the heat. Nothing good has been coming from shorting at overbought to this point. Of course, we will snap down for a correction at some point soon, but until now, shorting the overbought conditions have bought you nothing but heartache. Thinking you can short just because the market is overbought is a huge mistake.
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Sunday, February 03, 2013
Stock Market Elliott Wave Theory Analysis - Semper Terminus / Stock-Markets / Elliott Wave Theory
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The near 4 year old stocks stealth bull market punches through resistance at Dow 14,000 and S&P 1500 for the first time since October 2007, with the Dow closing at 14,009 and the S&P at 1513. What happened to the final fifth ? According to the most ardent or rather vocal adherents of Elliott Wave Theory the stock market should have peaked over 3 years ago ! Sept - Oct 2009, then again peaked several times during 2010, then some more times in 2011, how many final peaks were there in 2012?, and as for January 2013? Yeah you guessed the END IS STILL ALWAYS NIGH!
Sunday, February 03, 2013
Stock Markets at Extreme Levels, Asset Class Correlations / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Tony_Pallotta
For the week ending February 1, 2013, the SPX was up 0.7%, the Russell small caps were up 0.6% and the COMP was up 0.9%.
The only noticeable divergence within the indices is the Nasdaq 100 which has failed to take out prior highs and has shown a clear loss of momentum. Technically it has not violated support and therefore remains in an uptrend.
Other indices also remain in an uptrend as daily support has not failed though they too are showing a loss of upside momentum. If you are long equity, stops that are recommend are roughly 1,490 on the S&P500, 895 on the Russell and 3,140 on the Composite.
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Sunday, February 03, 2013
Stock Market Broadening Top Pattern Meets the Inflation Mega-trend / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Dow having successfully breached the psychologically important 14k on Friday, an event that has triggered the mainstream media to busily dig out long-term charts for analysis that show that the market is approaching a multi-year high that is coupled with dubious concluding implications.
Saturday, February 02, 2013
Harry Dent: Stock Market Roller Coasters and Bear Megaphones / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: The_Gold_Report
Booms and busts in the economy are based on predictable demographic cycles such as those studied by Harry Dent, founder of HS Dent, chairman of SaveDaily.com and author of "The Great Crash Ahead: Strategies for a World Turned Upside Down." In this Gold Report interview, Dent predicts a global crash between mid-2013 and early 2015, in an ongoing decade of economic coma. For now, gold and gold equities are great investments, but when the crash comes, read on to find out what he suggests will be a good sector until the echo generation enters the workforce and starts buying potato chips and houses.
The Gold Report: Harry, you base your economic predictions largely on demographics and demographic cycles. As the baby boomers enter old age and spend less, will that quash any hope of an upward trend in the overall economy?
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Saturday, February 02, 2013
Investor Critical Baseline Money Printing Realities / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013
By: DeepCaster_LLC
"Money printing creates illusory wealth and buys time, but if it was truly the answer to a deleveraging cycle, Zimbabwe would be a member of the G10."
David Rosenberg, Gluskin Sheff, 1/29/2013
Cleansing all the Recovery Hype off one’s Boots, it is well to remember the Key and Threatening Baseline Reality which David Rosenberg notes.
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Saturday, February 02, 2013
2012 Will be the Gold Stocks Year / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Jeff_Clark
Is your precious-metals portfolio ready for 2013? We want to get positioned in the best performers ahead of the industry's next big move to maximize profit while minimizing risk.
Some readers may question if gold stocks really have snapped out of their funk. We could discuss this topic for many pages, but the bottom line for us at Casey Research is simple: if you believe gold and silver prices are going higher, then equity prices will follow.
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Friday, February 01, 2013
Last Burst of Investor Stock Market Optimism? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: EWI
When do investors love stocks the most?
The simple answer is: After a long-term bullish trend has matured.
The S&P 500 recently stood near 5-year highs. And speaking of "recent," consider this investor behavior.
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Friday, February 01, 2013
Does The Stock Market Have It Right On The Economy Again? / Stock-Markets / US Economy
By: Sy_Harding
The stock market usually figures out what lies ahead for the economy well before economists and the Fed catch on.That can be seen in the way the market rolls over into a bear market when conditions are still looking great, when investor sentiment is at high levels of bullishness and optimism, when economists are projecting the positive trend to continue in a straight line into the future, and usually turns back up into the next bull market when sentiment is bearish and well before the economy shows signs of pulling out of a recession.
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Friday, February 01, 2013
Stock Market Reversal and Touchback Confirms the Turn / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
A rally back to a broken trendline is standard operating procedure. It serves two purposes. For the analyst, it confirms the validity of the trendline. For the market, it clears the shorts who put their stops too low. This particular retracement bounce took back 80.5% of the decline. This is another point from which to short the decline. We now have a reversal pattern that also confirms the new trend.
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Friday, February 01, 2013
Why The Stock Market Rallies Despite Worries / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Clif_Droke
The fiscal cliff, tax increases, the debt ceiling, missed earnings - investors certainly have had much to worry about lately. So why in spite of these fears has the market continued to rally?
There's a Wall Street bromide that succinctly answers this question: "Bull markets climb a wall of worry." Fear tends to fuel higher prices when internal momentum is rising due to short covering and other technical factors. It's normally not until everyone has entered the market that the market finally tops out.
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Thursday, January 31, 2013
Latest Economic Data Enough to Keep the Stock Market Moving Higher? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: InvestmentContrarian
Sasha Cekerevac writes: One of the stock market’s most perplexing moves for both professional and retail investors is when the market, best represented by the S&P 500, moves in a direction that might be contrary to current conditions regarding economic growth.
This is one of the most difficult concepts to understand; that the S&P 500 does not represent current economic growth conditions, but what the market believes is highly probable for the future.
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Thursday, January 31, 2013
Doug Casey's Current View of the World / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013
By: Casey_Research
Doug Casey's latest book, Totally Incorrect, gathers his iconoclastic views in a tidy package to stimulate and possibly dismay readers. In an interview with The Gold Report, Doug elaborates on some of his most radical ideas and offers his view of where the markets are likely to head in 2013.
The Gold Report: Doug, you have a new book out called Totally Incorrect: Conversations with Doug Casey. In one of those incorrect conversations with Louis James you said, "It's not the US economy that's facing a fiscal cliff, it's the US government. People equate government with the economy. They are entirely two different things. The only way to revitalize the US economy is through both vast reductions in taxes and vast reductions in government spending. Instead, these idiots are arguing over how much to raise taxes and how little they can cut spending." Now that we have avoided parts of the fiscal cliff and delayed addressing other parts, what are your observations?
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Wednesday, January 30, 2013
Stock Market Going for Broke / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Fred_Sheehan
The talk in 2013 has been of the great rotation from bonds to the U.S. stock market. This accompanies a new world record for the Russell 2000 Index (small-cap stocks). The S&P 500 has topped 1,500. It did so twice before, in 2000 and 2007. Here we are, again.
This U.S. stock market view is parochial. There are new world records wherever one looks. Flows (in 2013) into emerging-market stocks, emerging-market bonds, and real estate are raising prices and reducing yields. There are two reasons to step back from the spree. These will be taken in turn, to be followed by an excuse to go for broke.
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Wednesday, January 30, 2013
Going Beyond the Proton Gradient - Stocks Stealth Bull Market Analysis 2013 Part1 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market has so far put in a spectacular bull run during January 2013 by putting in a series of new stocks bull market highs across virtually every major indices and this taking place whilst the hottest stock of 2012 having collapsed by 1/3rd - Apple. No one could have imagined that the major stock market indices could make a series of new bull market highs whilst the biggest cap stock was in free fall! Where Apple is concerned it is clearly a case of Samsung having pricked Apple's stock price bubble that looks set to have much further to deflate.
Tuesday, January 29, 2013
Lindsay Stocks Bull Market Top Forecast 2013 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Ed_Carlson
When forecasting a market high with the methods of George Lindsay, the first step is always the 15-year interval. A period of time which should contain the high we seek is identified by counting from an important low to a time period 15 years to 15 years and 11 months later. Counting from the low of October 1997 identifies such a time period between October 2012 and September 2013.
Tuesday, January 29, 2013
Handle.... Stock Market Remains Overbought.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: Jack_Steiman
And overbought is overbought, which means, at some point in the not too distant future, the market is going to take a decent hit to the down side in order to wash away the overbought oscillators. They will need to reset some point soon, so don't be shocked when the Dow has a triple-digit down day in the near future. It doesn't mean we don't go higher first. It just means the upside action is limited for a while, until the market can gain more energy from the overbought oscillators. The longer you stay overbought, and the more overbought you actually get without unwinding, the more intense the selling is when it hits. We saw that in many stocks today that took some devastating hits on either a simple downgrade from overbought or simply because they were violently overbought with RSI's ranging from the mid 70's to as high as 90.
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Tuesday, January 29, 2013
How To Spot A Zombie / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing
By: Raul_I_Meijer
That thing in Davos is on again, the World Economic Forum, sort of like the Academy Awards without awards but with the same peacock factor. And snow. Full of business leaders and government leaders and media leaders, the vast majority of whom are the same folks who attended before this crisis broke you but not them into pieces, and easily enough to make you realize with a shudder what an unmitigated disaster it is that these are the people who are supposed to take the world back to financial health. Simply because they are the people who profit most from the state of the world as it is, or they wouldn't be there. And they are the chosen ones destined to save you? They are only out to save themselves.
Tuesday, January 29, 2013
Be Careful of the S&P 500 Three-Headed Dragon / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
By: InvestmentContrarian
George Leong writes: The S&P 500 is at a crux, following its recent move to 1,502 on Thursday, the first time it was above 1,500 since December 2007. The index is up nearly 12% since July 24, 2012. The fear is that the index may be testing its third top at 1,500 since 2000, something I have discussed in the past.
The overall U.S. stock market is trending higher. About 75.2% of U.S. stocks are above their respective 200-day moving averages (MAs), versus 59.3% a month earlier. On a short-term basis, 86.2% of U.S. stocks are above their respective 50-day MAs, versus 63.6% a month earlier.
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