Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, July 17, 2018
Easy Money Over, Show Time Begins As Real Macro Battle Ahead / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Submissions
The market went according to expectations and projections in the second week of July after the first week's huge bull reversal week. The bulls were able to retain their bull train momentum from the prior week and managed to do a decent job on the standard continuation upside pattern demonstrated by the consecutive higher lows and higher highs on the micro charts.
For the most part it was just a typical perfect week following our 4-hour white line projection chart. Initially rejected at the major 2800 level on the S&P 500, the bulls held the expected pullback with a low of 2765.75 on Tuesday night and eventually managed to wrap up the week around the highs at 2800 for the weekly candle.
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Monday, July 16, 2018
Markets Pay Attention Moment - China’s Bubble Economy Ripe for Bursting / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Plunger
The economies of the world are at an inflection point. Enough data points have now presented themselves to be able to see the outlines of a major shift in the markets of the world. We are at a pay attention moment. There comes a time when a successful investor must make some hard decisions to position himself to be able to take advantage of opportunities down the road. The markets are telling us now is such a moment.
It’s time to sit up and pay attention to what Mr. Market is trying to tell us.
It appears we are at the top of the cycle, anecdotal evidence is now pouring in. But that is just a cyclical story. The bigger story is that major market forces that have been brewing in the system for 25-40 years are now coming to a head. They are now dovetailing with the cyclical turn and together they may cause a massive shift in the world’s economic structure which has been erected over these 25-40 years. Few can even imagine these changes let alone prepare themselves for them.
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Monday, July 16, 2018
Stock Market Uptrend Continues, But... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Paul_Rejczak
Friday's trading session was pretty much uneventful, as investors awaited the coming quarterly earnings releases season. The S&P 500 index continued to trade along the level of 2,800 and it's closer to breaking higher towards the late January record high. There are still two possible medium-term scenarios, but bulls are happier than a week ago.
The U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between 0.0% and +0.4% on Friday, as investors took some short-term profits off the table following the recent advance. The S&P 500 index traded along the level of 2,800. It reached the highest since the early February. It currently trades 2.5% below the January's 26th record high of 2,872.87. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.4% and the technology Nasdaq Composite was unchanged on Friday.
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Monday, July 16, 2018
Emerging Markets Could Be Starting A Relief Rally / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Over the past 4+ months, many emerging markets have come under pressure as the global markets were roiled by the sudden and relatively deep market retracement in early February. For many, this downward price trend has been frightening and somewhat disastrous. Recently, though, something new appears to be on the horizon that may be the early signs of renewed life for many Latin American, South American and Indian markets – early signs of support and a potential bottom formation in the works.
Our researchers have been following the recent moves in these emerging market ETF for Brazil, Latin America, and India with great interest because we believe in finding opportunities when many others may not be looking for them. We believe these early warning stages of a market bottom could be an excellent time to “forward think” any possible price recovery that may occur in the near future and to prepare for any success opportunities that may arise. Heck, we are traders and if the opportunity exists for a decent profit with little risk, we’ll investigate it.
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Monday, July 16, 2018
(Only) a Near-term Stock Market Top? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – The bull market is continuing with a top expected in the low 3000s.
Intermediate trend – In spite of recent market action, the intermediate trend from 2873 may have to extendits corrective phase.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Sunday, July 15, 2018
US Stocks Set For Further Advances As Q2 Earnings Start / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The upside price moves recently in the US Equities markets have been dramatic. While many people believe the US Equity markets are overvalued and setting up for a top, we believe just the opposite – that the US Equity market and strong US Dollar are attracting capital and investment from numerous internal and external sources. We also believe the Q2 2018 earnings season, which is just about to begin, could be an additional driving force for further price advances – with big upside moves ahead.
Sunday, July 15, 2018
Stock Market vs. Gold, Long-term Treasury Yields, 10yr-2yr Yield Curve 3 Amigo's Update / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Gary_Tanashian
You have better things to do than read droning macro analysis or long, drawn out investment theses. It is a weekend in the dead of summer and for that reason we go easy this week; real easy.
The 3 Amigos are here to simply say that things are as they have been, with Amigo #2 (long-term yields) getting home and pulling back on cue, and the other two (SPX/Gold ratio & Yield Curve) still in process and indicating risk ‘on’ and ‘boom on’, respectively.
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Friday, July 13, 2018
Stock Market Outlook 2018 - Bullish or Bearish / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Sol_Palha
There is no absurdity so palpable but that it may be firmly planted in the human head if you only begin to inculcate it before the age of five, by constantly repeating it with an air of great solemnity. Arthur SchopenhauerFinancial experts continue to state that the markets are going to crash, even though their record since this bull market started back in 2009 has been dismal to the say the least. To complicate matters, some of these same experts suddenly jump ship and start to paint a bullish picture until the markets start to pull back. Then they falsely assume that the markets are going to crash and start singing the “market is going to crash” song again.
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Friday, July 13, 2018
Rising Inflation is Not Bearish for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
Inflation is on the rise. Yesterday’s CPI reading saw inflation rise 2.8% year-over-year.
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Thursday, July 12, 2018
Stocks Trying to Break Higher Again, Will They? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Paul_Rejczak
The S&P 500 index retraced some of its recent advance yesterday, as investors reacted to overnight trade tariffs announcement. Is this a new downtrend? Or just a downward correction before another leg higher? There are still two possible medium-term scenarios.
The U.S. stock market indexes lost between 0.6% and 0.9% on Wednesday, retracing some of their recent advance, as investors reacted to new trade tariffs announcement. The S&P 500 index has bounced off the resistance level of around 2,800. It currently trades 3.4% below the January's 26th record high of 2,872.87. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.9% and the technology Nasdaq Composite lost 0.6% on Wednesday.
Thursday, July 12, 2018
Corporate Earnings Q2 2018 Will Probably be Strong. What This Means for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
Earnings expectations for Q2 2018 are high. Analysts expect the S&P 500’s earnings to grow 20% year-over-year. This leaves some investors and traders “worried” that the bar has been set too high, setting up for a disappointment.
I think that this earnings season will be strong and continue to beat expectations.
Why?
Because companies (on balance) almost ALWAYS beat their earnings expectations.
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Wednesday, July 11, 2018
China, Asia and Emerging Markets Could Result In Chaos / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Recently, quite a bit of news has been originating from Malaysia, China and other areas of South East Asia. Much of it is concerns with multi-billion dollar projects and excessive corruption and graft. Malaysia is taking the lead with this issue so far with the new Mahathir administration. Yet, we believe these issues are far-reaching and could result in quite a bit of market turmoil over the next few months – possibly much longer.
What is at risk is the exposure of “cooked books” across much of China, India and likely throughout the globe with infrastructure and real estate projects that were designed to boost numbers while hiding real economic concerns. You may remember we alerted our members and the general public to this concern in March 2018 – nearly 4 months ago in this blog post. If you have not read our multi-part research post regarding how China has set itself up for a massive economic collapse, please take a minute to read all of our earlier research.
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Wednesday, July 11, 2018
Can the Stock Market Close Higher For a Record 10th Year in a Row? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The S&P 500 Total Return Index is slightly different than the S&P 500 Index in that it includes the dividend yield that companies throw off. Hence, the S&P 500’s Total Return Index tends to go up a little more than the S&P 500 each year.
As of the end of 2017, the S&P 500 Total Return Index has gone up 9 years in a row (2009 – 2017, inclusive). If the Total Return Index closes higher at the end of this year, it will set a new record for 10 years higher in a row.
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Monday, July 09, 2018
Another Stock Market Drop Next Week? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Brad_Gudgeon
I know most are getting bulled up here, but I’m thinking we go lower into the 12th before rocketing higher in the stock market. Notice the 16 TD tops on the SPX on chart below!GDX and gold look lower into next week and perhaps the week after. Typically, the PM's have been finding bottoms in July and December, so a short term buying opportunity looks forthcoming perhaps into at least August, maybe September.
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Monday, July 09, 2018
Why Trade Wars Are Really Good For The Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
If you read most of the analysis being published over the last two days, you would almost assume that the S&P500 should be crashing or be in a bear market. Yet, we are only 4% off the all-time highs struck early this year in the S&P, whereas the Nasdaq and Russell have made new higher highs this summer.
In fact, if you had read the analysis put out over the last two days when further tariffs went into effect, you would have to assume that Friday should have been a major down day in the US markets. This is just an excerpt from a bearish author’s recent article on the US market:
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Monday, July 09, 2018
Are the Stock Market Bulls Starting to Run? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – The bull market is continuing with a top expected in the low 3000s.
Intermediate trend – In spite of recent market action, the intermediate trend from 2873 have to extendits corrective phase.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Sunday, July 08, 2018
Breadth is Leading the Stock Market Higher. A Bullish Sign / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The NYSE’s Advance-Decline cumulative line is one of the best breadth indicators for the U.S. stock market. It adds the number of stocks that went up each day and subtracts the number of stocks that went down each day.
This is a long term leading indicator for the stock market.
The Advance-Decline cumulative line just made a new high even though the S&P 500 hasn’t. The Advance-Decline cumulative line hasn’t allowed the S&P’s pullbacks to push it down.
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Friday, July 06, 2018
The Stock Market’s “Turnover Bubble” Isn’t as Bad as it Sounds / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
Every time you hear words “speculative behavior” used to describe a bull market in stocks, you should sit back and look at the data carefully.
- “Speculative behavior” is mostly code for “the market has gone up a lot, I’ve missed out on a lot of its gains, and this is a bubble but I don’t know when it will top”. In other words, calling something “speculative behavior” is not useful for making trading decisions. Calling something “a bubble” tells you NOTHING about when the market will top.
- Nominal data always looks like “speculative behavior” because inflation causes numbers to go up in the long term.
Friday, July 06, 2018
Micron / China Holding Stock Markets Back / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Just before the July 4th holiday, the US equity markets were about to rally above a defined wedge formation that has been defining price range for the past 7+ days. As the markets opened on July 3rd, prices had already started to rally and appeared to be ready to rocket higher by a decent amount. Yet, by early morning, news that China had banned Micron chip sales in a patent case caused the markets to reverse quite steadily. This news, as it relates to US chip manufacturers and a major part of the NASDAQ, creates a temporary speed bump in the perceived rally that we have been expecting for weeks.
The Technology sector makes up a very large component of the US major indexes. Other than the DOW, technology firms are spread across nearly every sector of the US major indexes and this case may have some reach to it. As the trade tariffs and trade issues continue to ramp up, these types of explosive news items can drive the markets up or down as the news hits. We consider these external factors that push the market one way or another while the core market dynamics may want to drive prices in another direction.
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Thursday, July 05, 2018
Stock Market Still No Clear Direction, But S&P 500 Remains Above 2,700 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Paul_Rejczak
There were some positive expectations ahead of the opening of Tuesday's trading session, but then stocks reversed their intraday advance and closed lower. The broad stock market continues to trade within a short-term consolidation. Which direction is next? There are still two possible medium-term scenarios.
The U.S. stock market indexes lost 0.5-0.9% on Tuesday, as investors' sentiment worsened once again. The S&P 500 index continues to trade above the support level of 2,700. It is currently 5.5% below the January's 26th record high of 2,872.87. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.5% and the technology Nasdaq Composite lost 0.9% on Tuesday.
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