Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Monday, July 05, 2010
Stock Markets Treading Water as the U.S. Celebrates / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
U.S. stocks dropped again Friday, pre the holiday weekend, condemning the Dow to its longest losing streak since the 2008 leg of the financial crisis, on concern the economic rebound is slowing after companies added fewer jobs than consensus expectations and factory orders slumped. General Electric, Caterpillar and Bank of America all shed at least 1.2% to lead the Dow to a seventh straight decline. Elsewhere Equity Residential, the largest publicly traded U.S. apartment landlord, fell 24% after Citigroup downgraded the shares. Airlines also retreated while drug makers rallied on takeover speculation.
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Monday, July 05, 2010
The Double-edged Sword of Financial Fear Stalks Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Worries over the fragility of the economic recovery continues to haunt investors and dominate the new headlines. The latest headlines point to a widespread expectation of a double-dip recession by later this year. The latest round of worries are focused on potential European debt troubles, soft unemployment numbers and the latest round of U.S. economic numbers that proved to be disappointing to investors.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 05, 2010
Stock Market Forecast to Head Back Down to 2009 Lows / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
I trust you’ve had a great Independence Day!
In four days, we will have published 1,776 editions of Money and Markets — one for every year between the birth of Christ and the birth of our nation.
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Sunday, July 04, 2010
Was S&P 1220 The Stocks Secular Bear Market Rally Top? / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Current Position of the Market
Very Long-term trend - Down! The very-long-term cycles are down and if they make their lows when expected, the bear market which started in October 2007 should continue until about 2014-2015.
SPX: Intermediate trend - The index made an intermediate top at 1220 and is now in a confirmed intermediate downtrend.
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Sunday, July 04, 2010
Stock Market Support Broken, More Pain Ahead SP500 at 900? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The S&P 500 (proxies SPY and IVV) clearly broke key support yesterday and today. The index also now has a pattern of lower lows and lower highs. The price has been below its 200-day average for weeks now, with only a short peak above in June.
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Sunday, July 04, 2010
Gold Charts, Stocks and Bond Market Crash, Currency Wars and Financial Coup d'état / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
If there is a stock crash, all asset classes will suffer liquidation for a period of time, except perhaps for treasuries, and chart formations will get tossed out the window. But at some time after the primary crash, the currency is devalued, and bonds are taken out and beaten.
Crashes are low probability events, but need to be accounted for in your planning. I do that by hedging my positions with some shorts, and relying more on bullion than stocks during riskier periods.
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Sunday, July 04, 2010
Stock Market SPX Breaks September Low as VIX Spikes / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
FDIC Friday on vacation. - The FDIC Failed Bank List announced no new bank closures this week. FDIC employees took an extended holiday.
Stocks, Commodities Drop on Jobs, Factory Orders Data
U.S. stocks fell, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average extending its longest slide since the financial crisis of 2008, and commodities slumped as data on jobs and factory orders added to concern the economic rebound is slowing. The 10-year Treasury yield held below 3 percent.
Sunday, July 04, 2010
Stocks Bull Market Correction or Bear Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
My primary focus at this time remains the UK economy and housing market so as to conclude in a multi-year UK house prices trend forecast and ebook by mid August 2010.
However in response to requests and price action here is an interim analysis of the stock market:
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Saturday, July 03, 2010
Max Keiser on Economic Bloggers Branded Heretics as Keynesians Prepare for Monster Money Printing / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
On this edition of the Keiser Report, Max and co-host Stacy Herbert look at the latest scandals of economic bloggers branded heretics as the high priests of economics are busy preparing "monster" money-printing and refusing to recognize housing bubble "time bombs". In the second half of the show, Max talks to Josh Brown of TheReformedBroker.com about hexopolies and financial reform.
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Saturday, July 03, 2010
Key Financial and Commodity Markets Pointing to More Economic Pain Ahead / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
In the past two weeks, we’ve seen China de-peg its currency from the dollar, the UK roll out historical fiscal austerity measures and Japan release details on a plan to tackle its massive debt load.
The knee-jerk market reaction to these events was positive … i.e. interpreted as a positive influence on economic growth and a bullish cue for risk appetite.
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Saturday, July 03, 2010
Stocks Bear Market Triggered 90% Probability Target / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
Employment fell for the first month this year. - (Bloomberg) Employment fell in June for the first time this year, reflecting a drop in federal census workers and a smaller-than-forecast gain in private hiring.
Payrolls declined by 125,000 last month as the government cut 225,000 temporary workers conducting the 2010 census, Labor Department figures in Washington showed today. Economists projected a decline of 130,000 payrolls, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. Employment at companies rose 83,000. The jobless rate fell to 9.5 percent from 9.7 percent as the labor force shrank.
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Saturday, July 03, 2010
Stock Market Bears In Full Control.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
It's a rare time indeed when the major daily index charts stay oversold. When RSI's hit 30 and stochastic's hit 7 across the board and we go lower you know you're in a bear market. This is what we dealt with today. Extremely oversold on the daily charts, not the 60-minute charts but the daily charts. That indeed unusual except when you're in a truly bearish scenario. After today's action I think it's pretty clear to all that things are in bad shape from both a fundamental and a technical perspective. The futures were flat going in to the big jobs report. Everyone was anticipating something good to come out of left field to help the bullish case come alive once again. They didn't get it. The numbers were not good. The private sector was anticipating job creation to the tune of 100k. Instead it got 83k. The unemployment level fell to 9.5%.
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Friday, July 02, 2010
Will Q2 Earnings Create a Stock Market Rally? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The stock market is down 16% since its April peak, getting close to a decline of 20%, the threshold of entering a bear market. The S&P 500 is already back to its level of early September, having given back 38% of the entire bull market off the March low last year.
Yet, while investor sentiment has turned more pessimistic, it has held up surprisingly well in the face of the market decline, the steady stream of negative U.S. economic reports, and the continuation of troubling news from Europe and Asia.
Friday, July 02, 2010
This Stock Market Indicator Says the Time to Buy is Near / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
My favorite indicator is showing “yellow” and is on the verge of flashing “green.”I know, I know…things look very pretty dreary right now.
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Friday, July 02, 2010
Stock Market May Surprise By Year-End / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Economic news has been weak lately. Financial markets have performed poorly for over two months. Dow Theory "sell signals" have been issued. You may have heard a "death cross" is on the way. It is nearly impossible to find a bull among the growing sloth of bears. We are concerned about both the fundamentals and the technicals. However, in the context of history the current situation is not all that unusual. Since risk assets, such as global stocks, commodities, and commodity-dependent currencies have very high correlations in today’s liquidity-driven markets, the comments made below relative to stocks also generally apply to copper, silver, oil, emerging market stocks, the Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, risk, etc.
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Friday, July 02, 2010
Stock Market Bears Should Beware / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
I'm going to go through some signs that rabid bears might do well to pay attention to because I think the market is very close to a major bottom. (That doesn't mean we are guaranteed to make new highs, although we might. Just that we can probably expect an explosive rally soon, even if it ultimately turns out to be a counter trend rally in an ongoing bear market).
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Friday, July 02, 2010
A Post Payrolls Stock Market Bounce? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The S&P 500 Index fell for the fourth straight day Thursday losing 0.3% to close at it’s lowest since Oct. 2, 2009, after sinking as much as 1.9% earlier in the day. That was because of more worrying jobs data in the form of weekly and continuing jobless claims which gave the double dippers argument more ammunition. But European equity markets opened marginally higher this morning following their lead from Asia overnight despite the weak economic data from the US yesterday.
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Friday, July 02, 2010
20 Questions with Robert Prechter: Long Decline Ahead / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
The following article is an excerpt from Elliott Wave International’s free report, 20 Questions With Deflationist Robert Prechter. It has been adapted from Prechter’s June 19 appearance on Jim Puplava’s Financial Sense Newshour.
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Friday, July 02, 2010
Red Flags on the Economy, Stock Market Death Cross Forming / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
The market seems to have run out of buyers. Recently, on days when the market goes up, the volume is light. On days when the market goes down, volume soars with passionate intensity.
The babbling heads on TV make the bullish case enough, so I’ll just summarize it: Basically, corporate profit margins surged to 36% in the first quarter. Since records began in 1947 they have never been this high. Meanwhile, bond yields are pitifully low. There is no better place, say bulls, to put your money than in the market’s leading stocks.
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Friday, July 02, 2010
Cash Pouring Into Junk-Bond Funds May Signal Stock Market Chaos / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Shah Gilani writes: Investors are plowing money into junk-bond funds, which leveraged borrowers at private equity funds are using to pay dividends to themselves and to buy out more public companies.
The huge-and-growing overhang of debt-laden portfolio companies that private-equity shops want to take public - when combined with additional leveraged deals in the pipeline - will keep a lid on U.S. stock prices and could even spark a sell-off for stocks in both the United States and Europe.
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