Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, February 07, 2011
Stock Market Real Negative Returns for the Next Decade, Bear Market in PEs / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations
By: Mike_Shedlock
Market cheerleaders keep ratcheting up expected earnings, failing to note that much of the recent earnings growth is simply not sustainable.
Reasons for Unsustainable Earnings Growth
- Much of the recent earnings growth is directly related to federal stimulus that will eventually end.
- Much of the earnings in the financial sector are a mirage, based on assets not marked-to-market and insufficient loan loss reserves. The Fed and the FASB have repeatedly postponed rules changes for the benefit of banks and other financial institutions.
- Earnings in both the financial and nonfinancial sectors have margins outside historical norms, based on very low headcounts and outsourcing.
Monday, February 07, 2011
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for Week Starting 7th Feb / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
By: Tony_Caldaro
The market again recovered from an end of month decline to start a new month off in positive fashion. This has been an ongoing theme during this seven month uptrend. Economic reports for the week were quite good: 13 positive and 3 negative. On the negative side, monthly Payrolls came in lower than expected, construction spending and the M1 multiplier both declined. On the positive side, ISM manufacturing/services improved, along with the Chicago PMI, monthly auto sales, factory orders, personal income/spending, PCE prices, Q4 productivity, the ADP, weekly jobless claims, unemployment, the WLEI and the monetary base.
Sunday, February 06, 2011
The Financial Crisis of 2015 / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Trader_Mark
An interesting paper by international management consulting firm Oliver Wyman, on the potential for the next Financial Crisis to play out around 2015. This is not necessarily a 'prediction' per se, but an outline of the next black swan. At the heart of it is once more.... central bankers, especially those of an American kind. I am 100% sure the central bankers will cause another crisis, but what year and via what instruments is a guess.
Sunday, February 06, 2011
Financial Markets Train Smash 2011... / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
By: Brian_Bloom
For those who have the eyes to see, conditions for a train smash in the financial markets continue to build. This conclusion does not flow from a predisposition on the part of this analyst to be pessimistic. It flows from the facts – some of which have been highlighted in the three previous editorials of this name, and some of which are presented below.
Sunday, February 06, 2011
Value of Gold? (vs. currency, oil and stocks) / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
By: Richard_Shaw
Let’s look at the possible value of gold from three angles:
- real money — replacing all paper currency in the world
- energy equivalent value — how much oil can gold buy?
- stock market value — how many S&P 500 index shares can gold buy?
Sunday, February 06, 2011
Stock Market Indexes Look Like April 2010 Correction / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
By: David_Grandey
The charts of the indexes today remind us of April 2010 where the indexes chewed around for what seemed like eternity before rolling over.
So let’s explore that statement shall we? Below are the S&P 500 and OTC Comp charts of the April 2010 highs.
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Sunday, February 06, 2011
Stock Market SPX Closed Above Cycle Top Resistance / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The FDIC Failed Bank List announced three new bank closures this week. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation seized the American Trust Bank, based in Roswell, Ga., with $238.2 million in assets and $222.2 million in deposits; the North Georgia Bank of Watkinsville, Ga., with $153.2 million in assets and $139.7 million in deposits; and the Chicago-based Community First Bank, with $51.1 million in assets and $49.5 million in deposits.
Saturday, February 05, 2011
Stock Market February Seasonality / Stock-Markets / Sector Analysis
By: John_Hampson
February is an interesting month by seasonality. Typically the start of six months of underperformance for precious metals and the start of six months of outperformance for oil, it is also the second weakest month of the calendar for stocks.
On this occasion I expect Gold to buck seasonal weakness, given that it has been consolidating for the last 3 months during its seasonally strong time and is now signalling a buy:
Saturday, February 05, 2011
Egypt’s Civil Unrest Could Spread to Asia, What It Means for Your Investments! / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
By: Bryan_Rich
In recent weeks we’ve seen riots in Algeria, a coup in Tunisia and a massive public uprising in Egypt. The catalyst: The combination of skyrocketing food prices and high, persistent unemployment.
But while most are focusing on the specific political shortcomings within the countries and dismissing the events as isolated and contained, the lessons learned from this global economic crisis give every reason to expect contagion …
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Saturday, February 05, 2011
Stock Market Bubbles, Crowds and Credit / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
By: Doug_Wakefield
“…now that the recession is over, we have to face the fact that the government must make cuts.”
“We put rules in place to prevent another financial crisis…” President Barack H. Obama, State of the Union, Tuesday, January 24 ‘11
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Saturday, February 05, 2011
Stock Market Investors Be Careful - It’s Not Easy to Get Rich Quick! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
By: Sy_Harding
Over the last decade investors and home-owners experienced a series of brutal beatings in what was historically a very short period of time.
Many investors took heavy losses in the 2000-2002 bear market when even the blue chip S&P 500 lost 50% of its value. Many then got caught up in the housing bubble, maxing out mortgages that were unsafe unless home prices kept rising at a record pace. They lost sizable amounts when instead the housing bubble burst and home prices plunged. In too many cases they lost their homes as well. No sooner had the stock market recovered in the 2003-2007 bull market than investors lost heavily again in the 2007-2009 bear market, when once again the S&P 500 lost 50% of its value.
Friday, February 04, 2011
Is The U.S. Stock Market Rally Sustainable? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
By: John_Browne
This week, the financial media celebrated as the Dow closed above the 12,000 mark for the first time since June 19th, 2008. For many, this milestone is another sign that the financial nightmare of the past three years will soon fade in the rearview mirror.
Friday, February 04, 2011
Stocks Getting Boost From Commercial Real Estate / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
By: Chris_Ciovacco
While it would have seemed implausible during the depths of the 2008 financial crisis, the financial markets and economy are getting a boost from commercial real estate. According to Bloomberg:
Friday, February 04, 2011
Sloppy BubbleOmics: Case-Study John Maudlin And Jeremy Grantham / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
By: Andrew_Butter
John Maudlin recently put out an article called “Pavlov’s Bulls, the Importance of Asset Class Bubbles for Value Investors and Why They Occur”, which pretty much summarizes popular misconceptions about financial bubbles.
Friday, February 04, 2011
U.S. Citizens Go Global With Your Wealth, Before It’s Too Late / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
By: David_Galland
David Galland, Managing Director, Casey Research writes: It has been years since I last watched The Matrix, a lapse I corrected last night. As the movie makers intended, the film serves as stark metaphor of the world as we know it.
Or, more appropriately, as we think we know it. If asked, the average citizen of these United States would describe their life in entirely ordinary terms. They work at such-and-such a company, they live in this or that place, they enjoy one activity or another, and so on.
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Friday, February 04, 2011
Stock Market Investors Need to be Aware of Power in Mass Collateral Damage / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
By: Joseph_Russo
Those seated comfortably in every niche of concentrated power should duly note that their well-guarded monopolies of power and influence are not nearly as invincible as they might perceive them to be.
As evidenced in Egypt, on the turn of a dime, what at one moment appeared status quo turned business-as-usual into a living nightmare.
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Friday, February 04, 2011
How To Spot and Trade Stock Market Negative Divergences / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
By: David_Grandey
Well once again it’s all about the 60-minute charts with support and resistance clearly defined. We made a move up to resistance and are now in the process of turning around here.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 03, 2011
Global Stock Markets Strong Supportive Tone Continues / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
By: Donald_W_Dony
Global equity markets continue to carry a strong supportive tone into Q1. The percentage of rising stocks within the broad-based NYSE is holding above 80%, which represents an overly bullish reading.
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Thursday, February 03, 2011
Is the Stock Market Making a Major Top? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
By: Chris_Ciovacco
With the often misused term “overbought” being thrown around regularly on Wall Street these days, it is a good time to take a step back and assess the odds of a new bear market rearing its ugly head from current conditions.
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Thursday, February 03, 2011
Danger of E.U. and North Africa Bank Runs 2011 / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2011
By: Gordon_T_Long
This is a warning to prepare for potential stealth bank runs cascading from North Africa and Ireland through to EU regional banking centers.
Stealth bank runs are the unrecognized and perilous serpent lurking presently below the European financial surface. They prey on slower moving archaic bond vigilantes and anyone else swimming in these dangerous uncharted waters.
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