Wednesday, April 10, 2019
Smart Money Is Piling Into Oil / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Oil prices jumped to five-month highs this week, pushed higher by a bullish cocktail of supply outages, geopolitical unrest and a sputtering shale sector.
The most recent factor is the sudden eruption of the long simmering feud in Libya between rival factions. The attack on Tripoli by the Libyan National Army (LNA), a militia led by Khalifa Haftar, led to a spike in oil prices on Monday as the market priced in the possibility of supply outages.
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Wednesday, April 10, 2019
In The Event Of A Fiat Currency Collapse Would Gold Rocket? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Bob_Kirtley
One of the reasons given for allocating a portion of one’s investment assets to the precious metals sector such as physical gold is that gold can be considered as an insurance policy against the devaluation of paper money. On my office wall I have framed various bank notes from an 'inflationary' period of time which include the following:
2,000,000 marks, Germany 1923
100,000,000 Pengos, Hungry 1946
5,000,000 Kwanza, Angola 1995
Wednesday, April 10, 2019
Stock Market Trend Forecast 2019 - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is my final video in a series of 10 that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for the stock market into September 2019.
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Wednesday, April 10, 2019
Is The Federal Reserve ‘Too Big To Fail’? / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: Kelsey_Williams
The term “too big to fail” refers to certain businesses whose viability is considered critical to the survival and effective operation of our economic system. These very large businesses are designated as too big to fail because their failure or bankruptcy would have disastrous consequences on the overall economy.
The potential effects are considered to be severe enough, and the costs so unbelievably large, that these businesses are afforded special attention and consideration in the form of bailouts and protection from creditors.
The expenses necessary in order to save a large institution from bankruptcy are considered less than the costs that would be incurred if the institution were allowed to fail. Active application and implementation of both alternatives were prominently featured in the financial crisis of 2008.
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Wednesday, April 10, 2019
The Inverted Yield Curve as a Harbinger of Higher Gold Prices / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Michael_J_Kosares
During the course of the past few weeks, we have heard much about the inverted yield curve in three-month and ten-year Treasuries as a harbinger of recessions. Missed in the press reports is the fact that it has also been a harbinger of higher gold prices. In the chart above, please note the upward surges in the price of gold in the five-year periods following the two most recent yield inversions in 2000 and 2006. The first occurred with gold trading in the $300 range. It subsequently rose to the $600-650 level in 2006. The second occurred with gold priced in the $600-650 range. It subsequently rose to over $1900 per ounce in 2011 – its all-time high.
Wednesday, April 10, 2019
Trump’s Trade War Is Nowhere Near Over / Stock-Markets / Protectionism
By: Patrick_Watson
If you follow daily market action, you can tell investors don’t like tariffs or other trade restrictions. Stock prices rise when it looks like US and Chinese negotiators are making progress. They fall when President Trump makes new threats or negotiations fall apart.
We’ve seen it dozens of times in the last year.
Lately, we see more celebrating. People seem to think some sort of trade war resolution is near—or at least an extension of last December’s truce.
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Wednesday, April 10, 2019
Will Recovery in Payrolls and Yield Curve Sink Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
US labor market strengthened again and the yield curve inversion looks to be over. Has the sky cleared? Hold on, Brexit is just around the corner. Given the circumstances, are gold prices more likely to rise or fall?
America Creates almost 200,000 new jobs in March
US economy added 196,000 jobs last month, following a disappointing rise of 33,000 in February (after an upward revision). The number surprised on a positive side, as the economists forecasted 177,000 created jobs.
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Wednesday, April 10, 2019
Here’s What You Should Know About the Finance Behind Venture Capital / Companies / SME
By: Submissions
Venture capitalists help startups grow by offering capital in exchange for equity during early stages. Of course, there’s much more to the process than simple siphoning money from VC to startup: often, this capital becomes a lifeline for promising businesses whose roadblocks are almost entirely monetary. Today, VCs play a huge role in the financial landscape of the startup world.
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Tuesday, April 09, 2019
Is This The Last Leg Higher for the DOW Stock Market Index? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our researchers, at Technical Traders Ltd., believe this current upside price move is nearing the end of any immediate upside potential. Yes, back in December 2018 and before, we called for an “Ultimate Low” pattern setup followed by an incredible run to new all-time highs when almost everyone else was calling for a continued downside price move. Now, that the YM/DOW is only 640 points away from reaching all-time highs again, we believe a new price peak will setup sometime near June/July 2019.
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Tuesday, April 09, 2019
What Does Bitcoin’s Surge Reveal? / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Rodney_Johnson
If you went to the store two days in a row and all the prices had gone down by 20% on the second day, would you wonder what was going on?What if prices jumped 10% one day, then fell 7% the next?
What if, over the course of a year, prices skyrocketed by 400%?
This is what the world is like for those who view Bitcoin as currency.
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Tuesday, April 09, 2019
Financial FOMO with Lyft IPO / Companies / IPOs
By: Rodney_Johnson
Biotech in 1990, internet companies in 1999, vacation homes in 2005, cryptocurrencies in 2017. Now the fast money is chasing ridesharing pioneer Lyft, as well as other unicorns (private, money-losing companies valued at $1 billion or more). The Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) can certainly make us look foolish.My mother warned me about things like this. Something about following friends off a bridge…
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Tuesday, April 09, 2019
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast to September 2019 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is the last in a 10 part series that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for the stock market into September 2019. However the whole of this analysis has first been made available to Patrons who support my work.
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Tuesday, April 09, 2019
LYFT Stock IPO Mania is Wall Street’s Dead Canary / Companies / IPOs
By: Michael_Pento
Recently, Wall Street has been myopically focused on the IPO of a ride-sharing company called Lyft, which by the way, is hemorrhaging money. Since investors have become much less concerned about profits and valuations, this offering was an incredible 20 times oversubscribed. Meaning, the underwriters received $47 billion of orders for Lyft shares but raised $2.3 billion. The company generated $2 billion in revenue last year and lost an incredible $911 billion! Investors rewarded this profligate business model with a market cap of $27 billion.This is a great example that Wall Street has gone nuts. The Lyft IPO price was $72 per share and shot up to $88.60 on its first day of trading. But the following trading day those shares were down 24% from the high. Indeed, this is emblematic of the dead canary in Wall Street’s coal mine.
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Tuesday, April 09, 2019
Why Stock Buybacks Are Such a Mistake / Companies / Corporate News
By: Harry_Dent
A lot’s driving this bubble we’ve been in since 2009, but good fundamental trends and things like demographics and technology are not among them.The biggest inflator has been the $13 trillion worth of quantitative easing (QE) courtesy of central banks. Thanks to their significant gift to all but retail investors like you and me, speculation has become the norm.
With higher cash flow and cheaper borrowing rates – all in a slow growth economy – companies quickly learned that the best way to increase their earnings per share (EPS) was to shrink the number of shares available.
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Tuesday, April 09, 2019
A Recession is Coming… But Not Just Yet / Economics / Recession 2019
By: Harry_Dent
In the last week, there have been a slew of articles warning that we’re on the verge of a recession.
The most prominent is talk about the yield curve – the 10-year versus the three-month Treasurys – finally inverting. That has led every recession since 1955, and only gave one false signal in the 1960s.
I agree. This is something to worry about. But, this signal typically appears about a year before any recession hits. That means stocks could run up another six to nine months before they react. That’s all we need for my Dark Window blow-off rally scenario.
Tuesday, April 09, 2019
Are Fake Electronics Goods Worth Buying? Turkey Fethiye Market / ConsumerWatch / Shopping
By: Anika_Walayat
If your going to be holidaying in Turkey this year and are anywhere near the Dalaman / Fethiye area then you MUST visit the Fethiye Tuesday market! It is huge! Vibrant, bustling with variety, Turkish culture in action with plenty of bargains to be had if your upto the haggling challenge. It's a experience in its out right and its FREE, apart from the shopping. You get to see a side of the world that you don't usually see, full of tourists from all over the world of all types and ages, a true melting pot.
The market sells virtually everything under the sun, food, fruit, sweets, electronics, bags, all sorts of bags, trinkets, shoes, jewellery and clothes, tons of clothes, from the mainstay for tourists t-shirt's tons and tons of t-shirts to the local traditional garments.
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Monday, April 08, 2019
What’s Next for the U.S. Dollar? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gary_Tanashian
People don’t understand gold. They don’t understand the U.S. dollar either.Mostly, it’s the same people.
Gold bugs thought we were debasing the dollar by printing our way out of the 2008/9 financial crisis. Ha! Actually, the dollar has been rising since the start of that recession. The dollar, not gold, is actually the safe haven for the markets.
Right now, it’s range bound, but the dollar strengthened as much as 47%, at its best, during the last 11 years.
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Monday, April 08, 2019
US Dollar Key Fundamentals / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Gary_Tanashian
A reminder that we are not using the standard gold bug method of evaluating the USD (perma “death to the dollar!!”). We are using fundamentals in evaluating its potential to correct (and launch a global macro trade). The blue shaded boxes on this weekly chart tell the story of Fed policy (Fed Funds/3 mo. T-Bill) that significantly lagged the upturn in the 2yr yield into late 2015. But USD turned up much earlier (in 2014) to follow the 2yr.
Today we have an opposite situation. The 2yr has turned down (putting the Fed in dove mode) but Fed policy is going sideways. We are relatively early in a new blue box and if the correlation between USD and the 2yr holds (in reverse) either USD will correct soon or the 2yr will rise again (and whipsaw an increasingly clownish looking Fed).
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Monday, April 08, 2019
Are Traditional Business Models Going the Way of the Dinosaur / Companies / SME
By: Submissions
The term "business as usual" has always represented a slight misnomer, as the concept itself is dictated by economic, social and political conditions. So, success within this community will often depend upon one's ability to see what might be waiting around the corner. While all eyes are focused upon the Brexit and its potential long-term ramifications, not all freelancers and entrepreneurs have taken a dim view on the eventual outcome. Why is this the case? Should they not be more concerned about the fiscal ramifications of such an unprecedented move? One of the main reasons why astute professionals will likely be able to weather the storm involves the growing presence of the online business community. What changes might this phenomenon have in store? Are traditional models no longer viable? How can freelancers take full advantage of the opportunities at their disposal?
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Monday, April 08, 2019
Watch For +15% Move In Chinese Stocks / Stock-Markets / China Stocks
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Last week we had strong numbers out of China and our research continues to suggest the Chinese stock market could be poised for an upside price rally of at least 15% over the next 30+ days before possibly reaching a peak in June or July 2019. Our Fibonacci predictive modeling system is suggesting a target level of $30.50 to $31.50 (in YINN) as an immediate upside profit range.
We believe the continued pricing pressures of 2018 are easing as continued negotiations with US trade officials have everyone in high hopes for a suitable and equitable outcome. Our researchers believe the upside in the Chinese stock market could be as high as $32 to $36 in YINN before the June/July peak is reached. This would represent a +25% to +40% upside price objective from recent highs.
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