Wednesday, July 31, 2019
Stock Market Expensive: Traumatic Correction Approaching / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: QUANTO
As S&P climbs to new highs and closes another week into 3000s levels, we believe that the ground underneath is starting to slip. The economy per say may not be the problem. However the same cannot be said about valuation. The S&P500 is valued over 100% to its traditional mean and median levels on price to earning ratio. The one month treasury yield is now above US 2 year and 10 year yield thus effectively inverting. Money is often borrowed in the short term markets. A rise in short term rate is a warning signal of the coming mayhem. Rising yield will force models to reset after certain threshold are hit and this automatically converts into equity market cash outs. This sets of a chain reaction as sell momentum can spread across.
THe current S&P earning yield is 4.5% down from 6% thus contracting the returns investors make. This becomes even worrying when the short term yield is closing in on the earning yield at its fastest pace in over 10 years. We believe traumatic correction is on its way.
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Wednesday, July 31, 2019
Stock Market Medium-long Term Bullish Case From a Trend Following Perspective / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
The stock market is going nowhere as traders prepare for a rate cut. Today’s headlines:
- The stock market’s MACD
- S&P’s indecision is coming to an end
- Put/Call remains very low
- Finance stocks are finally going up
- Materials are no longer lagging the stock market.
Tuesday, July 30, 2019
US Fed Infinite QE Forever at Zero Bound / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The widespread profound and recognized global recession, complete with numerous icon corporate failures, will lead the US Federal Reserve to return to unlimited Quantitative Easing with a Zero Percent chaser. The Jackass calls it a return to Infinite QE Forever at the Zero Bound. Not only is the double step of return to QE with a sequence of interest rate cuts urgently necessary, but the financial markets are demanding it. In fact, they are holding the USFed hostage, as the venerable august body is backed into a policy corner. This time seems different. For ten years, the USFed has relied upon coordinated policy with the Euro Central Bank, having used all the most extreme measures, yet has a systemic failure on its hands. Witness extreme monetary policy failure. The systemic failure is both financial and economic. The bond purchase program wrecked the bond market by driving away legitimate investors, while the ultra-low interest rates wrecked the economy by distorting asset allocation.
Tuesday, July 30, 2019
Nearly 700,000 Homes in the UK Have Broadband Classed as Slow / Personal_Finance / ISP's
By: Boris_Dzhingarov
Do you feel like your internet is constantly slow and sluggish, meaning your unable to stream shows from the likes of Netflix or Amazon Prime? Well, you’re not alone, as a recent study from Ofcom has shown that nearly 700,000 homes across the UK have broadbands speeds of less than 10Mbps. That’s nearly 2% of offices and homes in the UK.
This is particularly shocking as 10Mbps is what is considered to be the bare minimum a household needs in order for it to cope with internet needs. This means that simple actions like watching a TV show on demand on Sky, playing video games or using Netflix will be extremely difficult. Even worse, if you have a family who all want to use the internet, there won’t be enough for everyone – which is sure to end in fights!
Tuesday, July 30, 2019
Are We in Recession Yet? / / Recession 2019
By: John_Mauldin
I’m often asked if recession is coming.For quite some time now, my answer has been: “Yes, but not just yet.”
That’s still what I think today, but more of the early warning signals I have used in the past are beginning to flash again.
I see some leading indicators weakening. I see smart people like Dave Rosenberg argue we may already be in recession today.
And I see Wall Street not really caring either way, so long as it gets enough rate cuts to prop up asset prices. None of that is comforting.
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Tuesday, July 30, 2019
Foreign Policy Betrayal of America / Politics / US Politics
By: BATR
Very little has changed when it comes to the elites who control public policy. Foreign affairs have been shaped by an un-American tribe of Judas' who seek to rule over real patriots. America has been systematically sold out for well over a century by deviants of our culture, economics, politics and especially religion. A legitimate foreign policy, above all, needs to protect our own country and her own people. Abdicating those responsibilities to benefit Israel is treason. Regretfully, most of the populace is so afraid of being labeled an anti-Semitic that they eagerly suspend rational thinking to be a kosher supporter.
Tuesday, July 30, 2019
Watch These Key Levels in Precious Metals / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
The precious metals sector appears to have started a correction.
It was roaring higher until natural resistance kicked in and the US Dollar grinded its way higher, towards its 2019 high. Factor in the Fed decision this week and it has created a natural “buy the rumor, sell the news” event.
We cannot know for certain what the Federal Reserve will do or even more importantly, how the market will react. But we can take note of key levels in these markets.
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Tuesday, July 30, 2019
Crude Oil Should Breakdown to $51 This Week / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system is predicting that Crude Oil will break recent support levels near $55 and move very quickly down to levels near $50 to $51 before August 2nd, 2019. The move to near the $50 price level is likely to be a 100% measured Fibonacci price extension related to the initial downside move from $61 to $55 earlier in July 2019.
After this new downside move completes, we expect Crude Oil will form a short-term price base just above $50 that may last many days or weeks. Our earlier analysis of Oil called this move and we outline our future oil expectations. For more information about this call, please review the following research posts.
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Tuesday, July 30, 2019
Central Bank Gold Agreement No Longer Necessary in Europe / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Submissions
Last Friday, July 26, 2019 - the spot gold price got what should be the opposite of a “Friday News Dump” using a longer gold price history perspective.
Effectively the significant bank power of Europe (ECB) and 21 other national central banks publically agreed that no gold bullion sale coordination is needed this September 2019 and after.
These +20 central 'gold holding' banks likely agree, that to sell sovereign gold bullion currently, is the exact opposite of what any prudent central bank should be doing.
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Tuesday, July 30, 2019
Gold Sound Money Movement Gains Momentum in the States / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.
Coming up we continue our discussion on the importance of sound money -- and we are going to check in on the progress at both the state and federal levels. Jp Cortez of the Sound Money Defense League joins me to update us about sound money bills across the nation and also shares his group’s sound money scorecard -- revealing which states have policies that favor sound money and which states are simply abysmal. So, stick around for my very interesting conversation with Jp Cortez, coming up after this week’s market update.
As investors look ahead to a likely rate cut next week by the Federal Reserve, gold and silver markets are consolidating their recent gains. The gold market is giving back 0.4% this week, bringing spot prices to $1,422 an ounce. Silver, on the other hand, is showing significant outperformance for the second straight week – up 1.2% since last Friday’s close to trade at $16.49, and the fact that it hasn’t broken down to this point after last week’s rally should be viewed quite positively.
Turning to platinum, the catalytic metal registers a weekly gain of 2.1% to come in at $867. And finally, palladium is headed higher by 1.3% this week to trade at $1,533 per ounce as of this Friday morning recording.
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Monday, July 29, 2019
US Stocks Seem To Be Following Our Predictions – Get Ready / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In the first part of this multi-part technology sector research post, we highlighted our previous research and predictive modeling result that suggest the US and global stock markets are poised for a peak/roll-over within the next 30+ days. Our predictive modeling systems and cycle analysis tools are pointing to August 19, 2019, critical inflection date that we believe will become the “breakdown date” for this next big move to the downside.
Part of our effort to help skilled technical traders is to provide research posts, like these, that highlight trade setups and allow our followers to understand the type of trading opportunities that are present for them to consider in the future. We believe the next 30+ days will prove our predictions are accurate and that the US/Global stock markets will roll-over into a new bearish trend – likely breaking downward near August 19, 2019.
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Monday, July 29, 2019
All Eyes on the Fed / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Finallong-term phase on the way? How much longer, is the question.
Intermediate trend – The continued strength has muddied the water and we may have to wait until August before the intermediate trend becomes more clear.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Monday, July 29, 2019
Car Money Saving How to Test Your Battery Before Replacing / Personal_Finance / Motoring
By: HGR
Here's how to test your car battery using a multimeter to check if it needs replacing or not. Does your car not start, do you have dim headlights or interior lights, does the starter sound weak when start the engine, or does your car die sitting overnight? This video will show you a few ways to test your battery to see if it is bad, is going bad, or is good. A good battery will hold a charge at around 12.6v and while the car is starting it wont drop below 8-10v.
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Monday, July 29, 2019
Odd Business at Twitter / Politics / Social Media
By: Stephen_Merrill
In today’s political world, there is one place everyone must join, even without a Facebook account.Twitter is the online platform that has become the singular global square for interactive discussion of political people and events. Surprisingly, Twitter has no real competition as the titan for this niche in the West and well beyond. The far smaller Reddit does not have the focus on politics that Twitter offers, though you will find on Reddit far better discussion of public policy issues. Facebook’s market-share in this space has steadily diminished.
Twitter’s top-dog status on political talk is also in place when compared to platforms that concentrate on a single country’s own market. None match Twitter’s usage in those countries.
Twitter at first helped make Donald Trump the President without really trying to. Then Trump became the guarantor of Twitter’s dominance in its marketplace, despite Twitter’s Leftist identity.
Monday, July 29, 2019
The Ever-Political IMF Meddlers Give Boris Johnson Unsolicited Advice / Politics / Global Financial System
By: Steve_H_Hanke
No sooner than Boris Johnson put his foot over the threshold of 10 Downing Street, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) offered its unsolicited advice to the newly elected Tory Prime Minister. Johnson won the right to replace the hapless Theresa May by pledging to remove Britain from the EU by October 31, 2019, “deal or no deal.”
Enter the IMF. In a preemptive strike, the Philosopher Kings threw cold water on the idea of a no deal, asserting that it would be a disaster. Talk about entering a domestic quarrel without an invitation.
But, such meddling is nothing new for the IMF. Indeed, a bipartisan Congressional commission (The International Financial Advisory Commission, known as the Meltzer Commission) concluded in 2000 that the IMF interferes too much in the domestic politics of member countries. Just recall the IMF’s involvement in toppling Indonesian President Suharto in 1998. This scandalous episode was confirmed by no less than former U.S. Secretary of State Lawrence Eagleburger. I would add that the IMF propensity to interfere has become much more pronounced since the days of the last great Managing Director of the IMF Jacques de Larosière (1978-1987).
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Monday, July 29, 2019
Stock Market - Get Ready! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As we near the important date of August 19, 2019, and we watch how the markets are reacting based on our earlier predictions, it is becoming evident that the US stock markets and global stock markets are following our predictions very well. The fact that these markets are doing almost exactly what we predicted months ago suggests that our call for an August 19, 2019 breakdown in the US/Global markets should also align with price activity very well.
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Monday, July 29, 2019
Gold, Silver and Central Bank Folly: Blame the Boomers / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: The_Gold_Report
Sector expert Michael Ballanger muses on how the baby boom generation has impacted markets through time, and discusses how he will play the current precious metals bull.
"Destroyers seize gold and leave to its owners a counterfeit pile of paper." —Ayn Rand
The baby-boom generation, of which I am a less-than-proud member, blew it.
There was a time long, long ago when the mention of the words "baby boomer" evoked a sense of pride of membership. Amid the prosperity of the post-WWII era, birth rates in North America soared while the sons and daughters of many men and women that fought in the war became the dominant demographic force by the year 1966.
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Monday, July 29, 2019
Gold ETF That Obliterates its Competition / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
By: The_Gold_Report
Bob Moriarty of 321Gold profiles a precious metals ETF that has "absolutely obliterated its main competition." The U.S. Global GO GOLD and Precious Metal Miners ETF (NYSE: GOAU) just had its two-year anniversary at the end of June, and since inception, the fund has absolutely obliterated its main competition.
GOAU delivered a remarkable 41% since inception through July 24, crushing the hugely popular VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) and VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), which were up 32.7% and 27.6% over the same period.
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Monday, July 29, 2019
RIP Global Economic Cooperation, 1944–2019 / Economics / Global Economy
By: Patrick_Watson
By Patrick Watson
Last month, world leaders observed the 75th anniversary of D-Day, when Allied troops stormed the beaches of Normandy, France. It was a critical day in world history.
However, other things happened that year.
As that massive invasion took place, a smaller group quietly planned how to reshape the world economy.
The Second World War was, in part, a result of failure to establish a stable currency system after the first one. That led to tariffs and other trade barriers in the 1930s. Economists and bankers wanted to keep it from happening again, and spent the war years discussing solutions.
Monday, July 29, 2019
Google News Articles and Searches for Recession and Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Everyone is discussing recession right now. But how much do they actually chatter about it? Does this talk reflect or change people’s perception? And the key question is: can the world-related indices predict the recession? Are they useful for the precious metals investors?
It turns out that yes! At least to some extent. Let’s start with the R-word index created by The Economist. It counts how many stories in the The Washington Post and The New York Times are using the word “recession” in a quarter. The idea behind the indicator is that economic downturn coincides with a surge in the frequency of the that scary world starting with R. The index surges when recessions are on the minds of people and the financial journalists who write articles about them. And, indeed, it has been pretty good at spotting economic turning points over the past three decades. As one see in the figure below, the R-word index signaled the start of recessions in America in 1990, 2001, and 2007.
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