Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Politics

Thursday, April 18, 2024

All Measures to Combat Global Warming Are Smoke and Mirrors! / Politics / Climate Change

By: Nadeem_Walayat

In practical terms, humanity collectively has done absolutely NOTHING to cut back on carbon emissions so it's no wonder that that rate of increase in co2 in the atmosphere remains on an exponential trend trajectory. Back in 1999 the suits were aiming to cap co2 at 400 parts per million, today it is now over 425 ppm. in 25 years time it will probably be approaching 500ppm as in reality nothing will be done given that people want to have better lives, they want to eat meat every day not once a month or even once a year as used to be the case in centuries past. So we are a long way from even stabilising the system let alone reversing damage that is being done, look at the graph, what has been done since 2000 to prevent climate change? The answer is NOTHING! Instead the exact opposite has transpired!

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Companies

Thursday, April 18, 2024

Cisco Then vs. Nvidia Now / Companies / Nvidia

By: Submissions

Owen Williams writes: We have been watching the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 melt-up since the minor correction ending in October 2023.  While the narrative around a Fed “pivot” on rates sparked the turnaround, it is obvious since we started 2024 that the indexes are rising purely on momentum in a handful of stocks which are leading development of artificial intelligence (AI). Notably this is Nvidia, a semiconductor foundry, along with Meta and Microsoft.

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Currencies

Thursday, April 18, 2024

Is the Biden Administration Trying To Destroy the Dollar? / Currencies / US Dollar

By: MoneyMetals

Confidence in Western financial markets has already been shaken enough by the 20% devaluation of the dollar over the last few years. But now the European Commission wants to hand Ukraine $300 billion seized from Russia. Doing so likely would sound the death knell for the dollar and eventually the euro.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who has worked for literally decades to undermine the strength of the dollar, recently urged world leaders to take this disastrous step of outright theft.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, April 16, 2024

S&P Stock Market Trend Forecast to Dec 2024 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

Here is the final installment of my epic analysis that concludes in detailed S&P 500 trend forecast for 2024 that was first been made available to patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $5 per month, this is your last chance to lock it in now at $5 as it will imminently rise to $7 per month for new sign-ups. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

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Personal_Finance

Tuesday, April 16, 2024

No Deposit Bonuses: Boost Your Finances / Personal_Finance / Gambling

By: Sumeet_Manhas

Picture this: you're itching for some thrilling casino action, but your wallet is feeling a bit light. Here come no deposit bonuses – a game-changer in the world of online casinos. No deposit bonuses are like the golden ticket to Willy Wonka's chocolate factory, except instead of chocolate, you're diving into a world of exhilarating games without spending a dime of your own money. These bonuses come in various forms, from free spins on the slots to bonus cash to play with – all without requiring you to make an initial deposit. They're essentially the casino's way of saying: Come on in, try your luck, and maybe walk away with some real cash – all on us! In an era where financial stability is top of mind for many, exploring avenues to boost your finances is crucial. And what better way to do it than by taking advantage of these no deposit bonuses? They offer a risk-free opportunity to explore the vast array of games a casino has to offer, all while potentially padding your wallet with some extra cash.

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Politics

Monday, April 08, 2024

Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend / Politics / Climate Change

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Firstly I'm a climate change denier!

I deny the right of climate change to prevent me from getting richer! Large swathes of planet may become a scorched earth but I will be more than able to afford top end AC units, climate suits and indoor grown crops and meat to ensure it's impact on oneself and ones patrons proves to be limited, 10c for 10x!

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Commodities

Monday, April 08, 2024

Gold Is Rallying Again, But Silver Could Get REALLY Interesting / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: MoneyMetals

Another week, another record high for gold.

On Wednesday, the monetary metal surged above $2,300 per ounce. It took a bit of a breather Thursday ahead of today’s key employment report but it rallied again on Friday. 

Turning to silver, it made a significant breakout of its own this week. The white metal shot up above the $27 level to a fresh 2-year high and rallied to over $27.50 on Friday

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Economics

Monday, April 08, 2024

Media Elite Belittle Inflation Struggles of Ordinary Americans / Economics / Inflation

By: MoneyMetals

A top writer for the Wall Street Journal thinks Americans who complain about the economy just aren't aware of how good things are.

Chief Economics Commentator Greg Ip wrote a gaslighting article last week with the headline, "What's Wrong With the Economy? It's You, Not the Data."

The article begins with the claim that Americans just don't have the facts on inflation.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, April 08, 2024

Profit from the Roaring AI 2020's Tech Stocks Economic Boom / Stock-Markets / AI

By: Nadeem_Walayat

I have been iterating since June 2020, the message one should be receiving is that I expect this bull market to run for many more years, that I expected to target a return of X6 over some 7 years on where AI tech stocks stood June 2020, whilst my best guess 3.5 years ago was that we could see a major top during 2027, as long as run away valuations moderated from time to time delivering buying opps as they did during 2022 then I don't see why this should not still remain the big picture, thus the bull market that began March 2009 could continue to fulfill my original expectations for a 18 year bull market, where even the bear market that follows it will prove temporary as the bull market once more resumes during the 2030's.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, April 07, 2024

Stock Market Election Year Five Nights at Freddy's / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

Remember the start of the 2024? That opening dip in the S&P that had the likes of the holy church of the Almanach warning of the Trifecta of failures starting with the Santa Rally, then the first 5 days, with eyes next on the January baromoter, harbingers for a bad 2024 for stocks!

This was my Five Nights at Freddy's response to the headless chickens that was first made available to patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $5 per month, this is your last chance to lock it in now at $5 before it soon rises to $7 per month for new sign-ups. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

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Commodities

Sunday, April 07, 2024

It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet) / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: Gary_Tanashian

On the occasion of another standout payrolls report, we note that the macro is indeed changing beneath the surface

Another payrolls report, another beat of expectations. Here is the breakdown of the details as posted earlier. However, let’s pluck one graphic from that post and illustrate a phenomenon I’ve been watching unfold for several months in a row; that of unabated government hiring this election year.

The USS Good Ship Lollipop sails along, supported by its vast services economy and construction (a product of the services industries, not a productive industry itself, unlike for example, manufacturing) as well as a continued trend of brisk government hiring this election year. I am not going to play politics (I am dispirited by both major parties) but as usual, I am going to lay out facts so that we can properly manage the situation from an investment perspective.

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Companies

Sunday, April 07, 2024

AI Revolution and NVDA: Why Tough Going May Be Ahead / Companies / Nvidia

By: EWI

"These things could get more intelligent than us"

The topic with all the buzz these days is Artificial Intelligence (AI) and its future.

The potential benefits include automating repetitive tasks, enhancing productivity, data analysis, assisting in medical applications -- and more.

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Housing-Market

Sunday, April 07, 2024

Hidden cost of US homeownership just saw its biggest spike in 5 years / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Submissions

As millions of Americans lose sleep over record mortgage costs, many overlook one of the biggest expenses they’ll incur as homeowners: property tax.

According to real estate data analytics firm ATTOM, property taxes jumped by 6.9% or more than $4,000 in 2023—the largest annual increase in five years. It's also double the gain from a year earlier.

“Property taxes took an unusually high turn upward last year, pushing effective rates up, while huge gaps in average tax bills between different parts of [the] country remained in place,” said Rob Barber, ATTOM’s chief executive.

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Commodities

Sunday, April 07, 2024

What Happens To Gold Price If The Fed Doesn’t Cut Rates? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: Kelsey_Williams

GOLD PRICE IF THE FED DOESN’T CUT

With the increasing gold price of late comes the assumption that the expected cut in interest rates will open a torrent of cheap money that will bring the U.S. dollar down with a thud.  But, what would happen to the gold price if the Fed doesn’t cut interest rates?

What seemed like a universally expected event may not be as likely as some have assumed. In fact, the Fed has a history that includes examples of pivots and re-pivots; or, ignoring the presumed pivot and staying the course.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, April 07, 2024

The Fed is becoming increasingly divided on interest rates / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Submissions

Powell reaffirms multiple rate cuts are on the table, but his peers thinks we’ll be lucky to get one this year

The Fed's officials can’t seem to get their stories straight.

On April 3, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reaffirmed his expectations for multiple rate cuts this year, shrugging off the recent uptick in inflation.

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Currencies

Sunday, April 07, 2024

The Evils of Paper Money Have no End / Currencies / Fiat Currency

By: MoneyMetals

Many prominent American founders warned us about paper money.

Thomas Paine may have summed it up best:

“The evils of paper money have no end.”

In an 1814 letter to Thomas Cooper, Thomas Jefferson was prophetic.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, April 03, 2024

Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Nadeem_Walayat

How are you enjoying AI tech stocks gravy train bull market of 2024?

This is my latest instalment of my in-depth analysis and and concluding S&P detailed trend forecast for 2024 - S&P Stock Market Analysis, Detailed Trend Forecast Jan to Dec 2024 that was first been made available to patrons who support my work.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, April 02, 2024

Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Nadeem_Walayat

During 2023 it seemed like everyone woke up to the importance of the US presidential election cycle.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, April 02, 2024

Dow Stock Market Annual Percent Change Analysis 2024 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dow Annual Percent Change

The 2022 Dow Annual Percent Change chart which accurately warned to expect the Dow to drop to 28k during 2022 in 2021 and that the Dow was cheap October 2022.

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Currencies

Sunday, March 31, 2024

Bitcoin S&P Pattern / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Here's a log chart of the Bitcoin price and S&P where I broken the bitcoin trend down into main bull and bear markets, which so far have been followed by minor bull and bear markets.

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