Thursday, October 01, 2015

Stock Market Closing the Books on September...Pessimism Extreme...Testing Weekly Support Lines.. / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Jack_Steiman

I thought, based on the markets behavior ending last Friday, that we'd see a bull-bear spread on the Investors-Intelligence survey of around minus -7% today when the new number was released. I wasn't pessimistic enough apparently as the number came in at -10.4%. With the action we saw in the market Monday and Tuesday it's actually quite possible we're now at lower levels on this measure. It goes to show you how fast things can unwind from froth to fear when all the leading froth stocks get completely annihilated, such as we've seen in the world of biotechs.

Wednesday, September 30, 2015

The Coming Corporate "Crime Wave" / Companies / Government Intervention

By: William_Anderson

William L. Anderson writes: In a recent appearance before Congress, Deputy Attorney General Sally Quillian Yates declared that the US Department of Justice is going to ratchet up its prosecution of individuals employed in corporations as part of a larger push against “white collar crime.” There is no doubt that such prosecutions will be very popular to a large section of voters, given that presidential candidates like Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton, and Martin O’Malley, along with Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren pretty much have declared that nearly all American businesses are part of a massive criminal conspiracy that must be brought down by federal authorities.

Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Stock Market Retracement May Have Run Its Course / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX met neckline resistance near 1912.00 and has been repelled near the Fibonacci 50% retracement level at 1912.35. Apparently there were a significant number of stops at 1910.00 that attracted the Algos.

The algos appear to be spinning their wheels at 1916.50, which may be the top of this retracement. Selling pressure appears to be settling in.

Wednesday, September 30, 2015

A Stocks Bear Market Is Now More Likely Than Not / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market

By: Richard_Shaw

• A Bear market from this Correction is more likely than not
• Yield Curve suggests Bull has further to go
• Breadth measures suggest Bull is exhausted
• Triple top and Head & Shoulders pattern suggests breakout to the downside
• 4 Factor Technical indicator suggests Bear is around the corner

Wednesday, September 30, 2015

The Killer Ape, Human Evolution, Artificial Intelligence and Extinction End Game / Politics / Evolution

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Some 7 million years ago our human ancestors split from the Apes that would go on to become our closest living relative the Chimpanzee. For the next 5 million years our ancestors would have physically looked little different to modern Chimpanzees  as well as in terms of behaviour and circumstances as there was a very gradual process of evolution of physical abilities such as walking upright in addition to still being good at climbing trees. Even as recently as 2 million years ago, some 3 million years into the age of the Australopithecine's, they would not have looked that different to modern Chimpanzees, living a precariously frightened existence constantly falling victim to predators, and where brains were of comparable size to Chimpanzees, about 1/3rd the cranial capacity of modern man.

Wednesday, September 30, 2015

China Boosts Gold Reserves 1% in August, Diversifying Assets / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: GoldCore

In his article for Bloomberg Business Ranjeetha Pakiam takes a look at China’s recent accumulations in gold and how the country now compares in the world league table on gold holdings. He observes that there is a deliberate policy of increased transparency in China “as the country improves data quality, increases its presence in commodities trading and promotes the international role of the yuan”.

Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Stocks One More Crash Leg Down Into Mid October / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Gary_Savage

Stocks should be getting close to a bounce out of the half cycle low, but there should still be one more crash leg down into mid October before the 7 year crash low is complete. The 200 week moving average is at roughly 1700. I would think that would be a minimum target with a maximum target at 1550.

Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Help to Buy keeps the UK Housing Mortgage Market Alive Two Years On / Housing-Market / UK Housing

By: MoneyFacts

The Help to Buy Mortgage Guarantee Scheme will soon be celebrating its second birthday. Phase two aimed to help borrowers who have a 5% deposit buy a home by giving lenders a Government-backed guarantee of 15% of the mortgage.

Since its launch in October 2013, the 95% loan-to-value (LTV) mortgage market has changed dramatically, and data from Moneyfacts.co.uk has revealed that not only are there now lower rates available for borrowers with small deposits, but there’s also far more product choice.

Wednesday, September 30, 2015

More U.S. Municipal Bankruptcies on the Way / Politics / US Debt

By: BATR

Even to the casual observer, the financial condition of government budgets are under severe stress. Taxes have gone up consistently and have outpaced any meager adjustments in income for most taxpayers. No one can reasonably expect that municipal financing is assured by simply raising assessments and rates to keep their bloated bureaucracies solvent. Since the middle class has never recovered from the money centered meltdown, the average community struggles with diminished resources.

Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Junk Bond Market Imminent Collapse Threatens (Unwelcome) BIG Rate Rises / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market

By: Clive_Maund

Everyone is so focused on looking at the Fed and whether or not it decides to raise rates by a puny 0.25%, that they are completely overlooking the fact that it is the market's role to set interest rates, and if the Fed is not up to the job, then the markets will eventually take over and do it in a manner that is likely to involve rises vastly greater than a mere 0.25%, which given the current fragile and extremely unstable debt structure, can be expected to have catastrophic consequences.

Wednesday, September 30, 2015

What Could Reverse The Global Stock and Commodity Markets Decline? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Clif_Droke

Falling stock and commodity prices around the world are underscoring a change of fortunes for the global economy. As the shockwaves from Europe, China and the developing markets spreads, there is a growing sense among investors that the U.S. might be the next casualty of the global slowdown.

Economists have already begun questioning what, if anything, the Federal Reserve might be able to do to stem the financial market selling pressure. Weakness has been broad-based and is visible in stocks, commodities as well as high-yield corporate bonds. Since the first bear market of the new millennium, the Fed has played an outsized role as a stimulator of equity markets and the economy.

Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Panic Is Spreading, Part 1: Surge in Junk Bond Defaults Imminent / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: John_Rubino

One of the early signs that a cycle is about to turn down is disorder in junk bonds. That’s because the companies that issue such bonds are by definition financially and/or operationally weak and therefore ultra-sensitive to changes in their environment. A modest drop in, say, consumer spending or the price of wind turbines will hardly be noticed by an Apple or GE but might threaten the survival of those companies’ weakest competitors. And as credit bubbles inflate, the weak in every field tend to proliferate as overexcited bankers and bond funds offer them plenty of rope with which to hang themselves.

Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Speaker Boehner Readies Final Sellout As Debt Ceiling Debacle Looms / Politics / US Debt

By: MoneyMetals

It's campaign season, and that means non-stop media coverage of candidate polls, quips, gaffes, tweets, emails, controversies, lies, and scandals. It all makes for a good soap opera. Unfortunately, it's almost all irrelevant in the big picture.

The media prefer to focus on the sideshow rather than the 800-pound gorilla in the room: the looming debt crisis. Nothing that comes out of a pundit's mouth or a Hillary Clinton email will close the $210 trillion long-term fiscal gap the U.S. now faces.

Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Are the Central Banks Attempting to Dam the Stock Market Waterfall? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

The bounce to the hourly Cycle Bottom was spot-on. It remains to be seen whether there may be yet another bounce (Micro Wave c) to a higher position. I think not, but reserve the right to be wrong.

Today s day 8 of the decline from the Wave (B) peak. Unless there is some catalyst to speed things up, we may not see the decline end in 8.6 days (mid-day tomorrow). The next potential interval for a flash crash is 10.75 days, which would potentially give us a low on Friday (early afternoon).

Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Stock Market It’s All Downhill From Here… / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Ed_Carlson

…well, down anyway. An emissions scandal at VW (the world’s largest auto maker), the announcement from Caterpillar that it is laying off 10,000 workers, a 5,000% price increase in a 62-year-old drug, the resignation of the US Speaker of the House, and Janet Yellen reaffirming a rate hike before the end of the year… what’s not to be bullish about?!

Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Gold - Somebody Call Warren Buffett - Quick / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: Peter_Degraaf

A few years ago Warren was interviewed on CNBC.  The interviewer asked him:  “Where do you think gold will be trading five years from now?”  His answer showed an ongoing dislike for gold as he replied:  “I have no views as to where it will be, but the one thing I can tell you is it won’t do anything between now and then except look at you.  Whereas, you know, Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) will be making money, and I think Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) will be making a lot of money and there will be a lot — and it’s a lot — it’s a lot better to have a goose that keeps laying eggs than a goose that just sits there and eats insurance and storage and a few things like that.”

Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Stocks: Why Following the Crowd is Usually a Big Mistake / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: EWI

Millionaires show poor market timing

We've seen it time and again: The investment crowd often hops aboard a financial trend just as it's about to end.

Government itself is actually a case in point. Here's what the August 2007 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast said:

Tuesday, September 29, 2015

The Difference Between Gold and Debt / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: DeviantInvestor

Simple version:  Gold is good.  Sovereign debt is bad.

The world has added approximately $60 Trillion in debt since 2007, much of it sovereign debt created from deficit spending on social programs, wars, and much more.  In that time the world has mined perhaps 30,000 tons of gold, or about 950 million ounces, worth at September 2015 prices a little more than a $Trillion.  It is easy to create debt – central banks “print” currencies by BORROWING those currencies into existence.  Debt increases, currency in circulation increases, and until it crashes, life is good for the financial and political elite.  But debt increasing 60 times more rapidly than gold indicates that debt is growing too rapidly and due for a reset.

Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Peak Food Island Earth / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities

By: Ned_W_Schmidt

Island Earth is our latest article on the concept of Peak Food, which was introduced in two previous articles. We do recommend reading those other two articles in conjunction with this one: Peak Food 2 and Peak Food, An Introduction

Below we will observe that Island Earth is a major component of Peak Food. Reality is that Island Earth, combined with a myriad of other factors, has serious negative implications for our world's ability over time to satisfy human demand for food at affordable prices. Today, many ignore the reality of Peak Food. For the farsighted investors, Peak Food offers an investment opportunity that can provide benefits for generations.

Tuesday, September 29, 2015

This Stocks Bear is Just Waking from Hibernation / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market

By: James_Quinn

“Every man has a right to his own opinion, but no man has a right to be wrong in his facts” ― Bernard M. Baruch

“The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many men as possible.” ― Bernard M. Baruch

As the market drops 200 to 300 points daily on a fairly frequent basis these days, and has now dropped 13% in the last four months, John Hussman’s valuation analysis based upon historical facts is proving to be accurate. He’s not an “I told you so” type of person, but I am. The MSM stories follow the same old storyline – this is just a correction, time to buy the dip, stocks are undervalued, the Fed won’t let the market fall. We’ve been here before, twice in the last fifteen years. Wall Street and their media mouthpieces attempted to spread misinformation about the nature of the markets in 2000 and 2007, as epic bear markets were just getting underway. John Hussman cut through their crap then and he is cutting through it now.