Saturday, January 09, 2016

Stocks Bull/Bear Market Inflection Point Approaching / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Tony_Caldaro

Volatile week ends with a steep selloff. The week started at SPX 2044. Monday’s gap down took it to SPX 1990, before rallying with a gap up on Tuesday to 2022. Gap down openings on Wednesday/Thursday took the SPX to 1939. Then after a gap up opening on Friday to SPX 1960, then market dropped to end the week at 1922. For the week the SPX/DOW lost 6.10%, the NDX/NAZ lost 7.15%, and the DJ World index lost 6.10%. Economic reports for the week were mostly negative. On the uptick: the ADP and Payrolls, plus the trade deficit and weekly jobless claims improved. On the downtick: ISM manufacturing/services, construction spending, factory orders, wholesale inventories, consumer credit, the WLEI and GDPn. Next week we get reports on Industrial production, the FED’s Beige book and Export/Import prices.

Saturday, January 09, 2016

U.S.December Payrolls: ‘Back End’ Still Strong; a Closer Look / Economics / Employment

By: Gary_Tanashian

It is important to distinguish the ‘back end’ from the ‘front end’ of the economy or else all you end up with hype emanating from the financial sphere every time an economic data release comes out.  For example, I was critical of Martin Armstrong’s post, Is the recession Starting? in a rebuttal post, Armstrong 3+ Decades Late on Manufacturing because Marty’s post not only brought back some jaw droppingly old fashioned concepts about US manufacturing (JiT and automation replacing labor) but it focused only on the ‘front end’ of the economy, affirming the “ECM” in a short info-blurb.

Saturday, January 09, 2016

Gold And Silver – Why More Important Than When. Going Lower Before Moving Higher / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Michael_Noonan

When the globalist’s central bankers are in control, primarily the US/UK, they are proving their ability to supersede the natural forces of supply and demand with impunity. When they have the ability to “print” unlimited amounts of fake fiat, no other country can stand in the way, not even China.

On the other hand, neither China nor Russia wants to oppose the globalist forces of evil, for both of those nations see what is unfolding on the world’s stage is the kabuki theater death dance of the US and the inexorable fading away of the fiat Federal Reserve Note.

Saturday, January 09, 2016

The Impact of a Strong U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Donald_W_Dony

Impressive drivers continue to surface for the U.S. dollar. And the impact lingers on many fronts.

One measure is the recent positive U.S. jobs report. This adds to the dollar's already bullish tone as it dials up pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates in the months ahead.

Saturday, January 09, 2016

Gold to Equities Ratios Have Bottomed / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

It has been a strong start to 2016 in precious metals, today notwithstanding. Gold was able to break above daily resistance at $1080 to $1090 while miners climbed higher until Friday's reversal. Rather than focus on the nominal gains I want to turn our attention to Gold's performance against other markets and asset classes. It is starting to turn in Gold's favor and that is imperative if the precious metals bear market is to end in 2016.

Saturday, January 09, 2016

Book Review: Prosper!: How to Prepare for the Future and Create a World Worth Inheriting / InvestorEducation / Reviews

By: John_Rubino

In their new book, Peak Prosperity's Chris Martenson and Adam Taggart don't sugarcoat the thesis, which is basically the end of the world as we know it.

It seems that three major trends are colliding:

Friday, January 08, 2016

China Stock Market Crash Impact on Global Markets 2016 - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Chinese stock market already weak going into the end of 2015 has started 2016 off with a BANG, literally crashing on a near daily basis by hitting the 7% circuit breaker daily limit moves prompting a closure of the market, only to resume to the free fall the following morning as investors panic sold on the open attempting to sell before the circuit breaker kicks in resulting in a market that locked out most retail investors. This daily 7% limit down crashes prompted the Chinese authorities on Thursday to suspend the circuit breaker which should have the effect of alleviating the panic selling going forward.

Friday, January 08, 2016

Fed’s Stock Market Distortions Unwind / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Zeal_LLC

The world’s financial markets changed dramatically entering this young new year, led by sharp stock selloffs and a mounting gold rally.  These are major reversals from recent years’ action.  The immediate catalysts were China’s plummeting stocks and ongoing yuan devaluation.  But the far larger underlying driver is the Fed’s first tightening cycle in a decade, which is just starting to unwind years of gross distortions.

Just a few weeks ago on December 16th, the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee chose to hike the benchmark federal-funds rate for the first time since June 2006.  This was widely hailed as bullish for stocks, since it implied the US economy had improved enough to weather a new tightening cycle.  The flagship S&P 500 stock index (SPX) surged 1.5% that day, as traders rejoiced at the Fed’s gradualist approach.

Friday, January 08, 2016

Stock Market Retracement Appears Over / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

It appears that SPX has completed its retracement just 2 points above the 5-year trendline at 1960.47. This amounts to only a 26% retracement of the last decline. The decline must resume today, since this is only a minor Pivot day.

ZeroHedge reports, “This week is simply the worst we had in recent history for markets, RBS exclaims, the worst ever start to the year for The Dow, the worst since 1999 for S&P and the second-worst for credit since 2008. Worst still is, they think there’s more weakness ahead and that many fundamental risks will continue to haunt markets. Why? Simple! Investors drank too much policy kool-aid last year.

Friday, January 08, 2016

Natural Gas Prices Signaling Oil Bottom for Investors / Commodities / Natural Gas

By: EconMatters

Everyone is trying to figure when the oil markets will bottom. Well lost in all the crazy action in markets globally is the nice resurgence off the bottom for natural gas prices. Natural Gas prices have essentially gone from $1.68 per MMBtu to $2.40 per MMBtu rather rapidly in the midst of a mild winter so far. The reason is that all those rig reductions are starting to affect the production of the commodity, less natural gas is coming to market relative to expectations.

Friday, January 08, 2016

That`s the Bottom in the Crude Oil Price, Clear Out Weak Hands in the Market / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EconMatters

On Wednesday the oil market sold off to $33.77 on large product`s builds, China`s devaluation of its currency, and a substantial selloff in equities. Sure Oil can go a dollar below this low, but for all intents and purposes this is the bottom in the oil selloff that was predicted for the start of the year. This move down was as predictable a move as there is in financial markets, and we called this down move to start the year with a piece we issued in December.

Friday, January 08, 2016

Silver and S&P Stocks Index Similarities – Tops and Bottoms / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: DeviantInvestor

Examine the 30 year log scale chart of the S&P 500.  What I see:

Friday, January 08, 2016

Stock Market Pop-N-Drop? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

The SPX Premarket appears to be challenging its 60-minut3e Cycle Bottom resistance at 1971.86, very near the 38.2% retracement level. However, the Employment Situation Summary came out above expectations with a reported 292,000 new hires in December. On the surface it looked good, but average wages posted its first drop since 2014, according to ZeroHedge. So the jobs report is a mixed bag.

Friday, January 08, 2016

Gold Price Higher In Most Currencies in 2015 – Up 4% This Week / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: GoldCore

- Gold acts as safe haven in 2015 … for those who need safe haven
- Gold gains in CAD, AUD, NZD, ZAR, RUB & most emerging market currencies
- Gold essentially flat in EUR (-0.3%) as ECB QE supports gold
- Gold lower in USD, GBP, CNY, INR, JPY, CHF
- Of 18 major currencies, gold was higher in 11 currencies and lower in 7
- Hallmarks of market bottoming and bodes well for 2016
- Gold over 4% higher in USD, EUR and GBP so far in January 

Friday, January 08, 2016

Is this the Wile E. Coyote Moment for Global Markets? Video / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016

By: Mario_Innecco

Transcript excerpt: it's been very interesting for a few days for the stock market and the markets in general
for the year 2016 I mean the Dow Jones today dropped three hundred and ninety
two points the Chinese stock market is dropped 7 percent twice this year
already even though the jack Chinese central bank is injected about twenty
billion dollars into the market
yeah you know looking back at last three or four years you know you like relax
and say all this is just a correction you know and I think there's a lot of
complacency still but this use worse than that this fuse bad I think you know

Friday, January 08, 2016

Where Is the Chinese Stock Market Headed? / Stock-Markets / Chinese Stock Market

By: Austin_Galt

The Chinese stock market, the SSEC, has tanked out of the block in 2016 and has investment professionals across the globe running around like headless chickens. So, let's take a deep breath and check out the charts. We'll take it from the top beginning with the yearly chart.

Friday, January 08, 2016

Stock Market Crash Potential - Video / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: Gary_Savage

I strongly advise not trying to pick a bottom in the stock market right now. The market is trying to move down into the 7 year cycle low. There is risk this could evolve into an 87 style crash event. Don’t try to be a hero and risk getting caught in that if it were to happen.

Friday, January 08, 2016

China Stock Market Crash Terrorises Global Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Chinese stock market already weak going into the end of 2015 started 2016 off with a BANG, literally crashing on a near daily basis by hitting the 7% circuit breaker daily limit moves prompting a closure of the market, only to resume to the free fall the following morning as investors panic sold on the open attempting to sell before the circuit breaker kicks in, resulting in a market that has locked out most retail participants as they watch their stock portfolio valuations evaporate. This daily 7% limit down crashes prompted the Chinese authorities Thursday to suspend the circuit breaker which should have the effect of alleviating the panic selling going forward.

Thursday, January 07, 2016

Bill Gross Warns China Stocks Will Drop Another 5-6% Friday / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Bloomberg

Bill Gross of Janus Capital spoke with Bloomberg's Tom Keene about the state of the global economy.

Gross said China's stock markets are likely to drop 5-6% on Friday: "Based upon the ETF in the United States, China is predicted to be down 5 percent or 6 percent…But China is an artificial market. All global markets are artificially based. And to the extent that we have a catharsis, I think, depends upon central banks basically giving up in terms of what they do. I don't think that's going to happen."

Thursday, January 07, 2016

Stock Market Major 5-year Trendline Crossed / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

It appears that SPX has violated its (nearly) 5-year trendline that appears to be in the mid 1950’s.

I normally would not be watching this since the more technically correct trendline was violated in August. However, there are multiple analysts who have been using this as a “line in the sand.”