Friday, June 24, 2016

Trading BrExit - British Pound Plunges, FTSE Stock Futures Slump on LEAVE Shock Referendum Win / ElectionOracle / EU_Referendum

By: Nadeem_Walayat

3am BST: With now 8 million votes counted, the headline of standings of near 50/50 masks the fact that as Jeremy Vine periodically keeps reminding BBC viewers that LEAVE are doing far better than their models suggested they should be, which if maintained implies that LEAVE are heading for referendum win, which compares against the situation of when the polls closed and the release of YouGov's polling for the day that gave REMAIN a commanding 4% lead over LEAVE, which even prompted Nigel Farage to effectively throw in the towel, apparently after talking to his friends in the city who assured him that REMAIN had won.

Friday, June 24, 2016

EU Referendum Shock Results Putting BrExit LEAVE in the Lead Hitting Sterling Hard / ElectionOracle / EU_Referendum

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Results at 1am BST are reversing the REMAIN camps earlier complacency that following the polls closing had many congratulating themselves after YouGov's 10pm poll that gave REMAIN a commanding 4% lead over LEAVE. We even even saw Nigel Farage effectively throw in the towel, apparently after talking to his friends in the city who assured him that REMAIN had won.

Thursday, June 23, 2016

Final Opinion Poll Gives REMAIN 52% Lead, Bookmakers, Markets and Pollsters ALL Back REMAIN Win / ElectionOracle / EU_Referendum

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The final opinion poll of the EU Referendum campaign by YouGov was released at 10pm just as the polls closed and the counting began, putting REMAIN in a clear 4 point lead on 52% against LEAVE on 48%, which is what the story that the mainstream press is running with given that the first significant results won't be known for at least another 3 hours.

Thursday, June 23, 2016

Reviewing the Basics of the Elliott Wave Principle: The Zigzag / InvestorEducation / Elliott Wave Theory

By: EWI

Free Lesson from Jeffrey Kennedy's Trader's Classroom

The Wave Principle classifies price action as either motive or corrective. Corrective waves move opposite the direction of the primary trend and include the zigzag, flat, triangle and combinations of these patterns. They offer traders an opportunity to rejoin the larger trend. Today, you can listen to a lesson from Jeffrey Kennedy's Trader's Classroom in which he teaches you the basics of the zigzag and shows an example in the chart of Microsoft Corporation (MSFT).

Thursday, June 23, 2016

A New Balance Of Power In The Gold Market / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: John_Rubino

Gold analyst Michael Ballanger just posted an article noting how much things have changed — perhaps for the better — in the gold market. Here’s an excerpt:

Thursday, June 23, 2016

E-Wave Says BIG Down in Stock Market June 24th / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Brad_Gudgeon

The chart below of the S&P 500 suggests a move down to around 2041/42 early Friday, June 24 or about 3% down from today’s high near 2107. The e-wave astro/cycle pattern also suggests a strong move back up into Tuesday, June 28 to perhaps as high as 2121/22.  By July 5th, a move into the low 1900’s is possible.

Everybody is focusing on the BREXIT, so the outcome, whatever it will be, will likely be the blame for the coming volatility. We shall soon find out. It is 12:30 CDT as I write this. I still see new highs by October 3rd.

Thursday, June 23, 2016

Stock Market Waiting for the Reversal / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX has made a measured move, so far. The rally from the 2050.37 low has taken 34 hours. Another .4 hours would make it divisible by 4.3. you can see that the volume is low, so there is little participation or short covering.

Thursday, June 23, 2016

BREXIT Day – Markets Becalmed – Gold Panic Prelude / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: GoldCore

BREXIT Day and the UK EU referendum is upon us today and investors are expecting more choppy trading in financial markets in the coming hours. The City of London is bracing itself for potentially the most volatile night since the sterling devaluation on Black Wednesday.

Thursday, June 23, 2016

What Billionaire Investors Are Doing with Gold While Your Not Watching / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: MoneyMetals

With each passing day, systemic risks in the financial system become greater. Smart money insiders and billionaire investors are taking note – and taking defensive actions.

Mega-billionaire Carl Icahn, whose long-term track record is unrivaled, recently warned that “there will be a day of reckoning unless we get fiscal stimulus.” Icahn’s hedge fund is betting on a day of reckoning scenario. He has gone 150% net short the stock market while holding commodity-related positions to the long side.

Thursday, June 23, 2016

Does BREXIT Matter? Outlook for Sterling / Currencies / British Pound

By: Marc_Horn

This I want to use as an example of MWA so you can get a feel of how and why.....in my previous article I said BREXIT and your vote is only an illusion.
The overview last 3 pivots of same fractal - don't worry you will get to see them - they will become pretty obvious with practice and application of the rules and theory. The green ML is the target for a healthy wave 1 on the next smaller fractal. Failure to reach ML with break of MLL is weakness and the target then becomes SP to the high MLL or WL-1. The break is confirmed with a break of the lowest pivot or highest pivot depending on the trend.

Thursday, June 23, 2016

Keep Calm and Vote BrExit - Last Chance to Break Free of EU Superstate / ElectionOracle / EU_Referendum

By: Nadeem_Walayat

In February Prime Minister David Cameron defacto surrendered virtually every point of his already heavily watered down non binding deal with the European Union who stated would only legislate the laws AFTER the the UK had voted to remain within the EU. Which the EU Parliament President clarified as implying that virtually every aspect of the deal would be subject to debate and resistance from the dozen or so eastern european benefits claiming states, who would likely decide to reject most of the so called UK deal, that effectively has been repeatedly used as a smoke screen to hoodwink the British people into giving up their democracy and freedoms.

Thursday, June 23, 2016

Here’s the Foreign Policy Trump and Clinton Really Want / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016

By: John_Mauldin

BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : Forget for a moment that Hillary Clinton is a criminal, Donald Trump is crazy, and both are liars. This is an election year, and demons stalk the world. It is now clear that one of them will be president of the United States.

Behind the heated rhetoric lie two very diverse visions for American foreign policy. But what presidents want and what they get are usually very different things.

Thursday, June 23, 2016

Stock Market Fluctuates on Concerns Ahead of Brexit / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Harry_Boxer

The stock market indices had a very volatile session, first starting off with a little bit of a dip, then a strong rally to test Monday’s highs, and when they were unable to take those out they came down in a strong midday decline, but snapped back early afternoon. However, that failed to take hold, but it was just a retest. The indices then had a 5-wave decline into the close, finishing near the session lows, just bouncing right off them into the close.

Thursday, June 23, 2016

Late Morning Brexit Poll Kills Earlier Stock Market Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Jack_Steiman

It is normal for markets to drift higher ahead of an important news event. Hope trumps fear most of the time in this crazy game. I think it's about most folks thinking the worst case scenario won't happen. That intervention will take over right at the end and keep things status quo. It seems impossible in the minds of the masses that something terrible can actually occur since the world banks, etc are always doing something to make sure nothing all that bad takes place.

Thursday, June 23, 2016

Why the Average Person Should Own Some Gold and Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Sol_Palha

"Ability is of little account without opportunity." ~ Napoleon Bonaparte

We live in a world where the main driving force behind this illusory economic recovery is hot money and data manipulation. According to Government stats, inflation is nonexistent, but anyone with a grain of grey matter understands that this is not the real case. Rents, education and medical costs are soaring, and salaries are dropping when inflation is factored in. In simple words, you are working more and more for less and less. This is not the American dream; in fact, it sounds more like the American nightmare. The purchasing power of the dollar has been eroded dramatically over the years. According to the website usinflationcalculator.com, an item that set you back $20.00 in 1913 would cost you over $485 in 2016, for a cumulative rate of inflation of 2320%.

Thursday, June 23, 2016

Details Behind Semiconductor Stocks Leadership / Companies / Tech Stocks

By: Gary_Tanashian

I am prompted to write this article because TA’s are starting to pick up on the Semiconductor index’s bullishness and even the overwhelmingly bearish website, the Daily Reckoning is calling bull on the Semiconductor sector.

These Tech Stocks Are Ready to Lead the Market. Before Buying, Read This…

The author uses only charts to clue readers in to this little secret (Semis led the market down and now they are leading it up) but there is much more to the story, and since it has been our story (for its upside and downside market leadership) since 2013 I’ll lay claim before the whole enchilada opens up and every wise guy with a chart or a stock pick is touting the Semis.

Thursday, June 23, 2016

Trading BrExit - Stocks, Bonds, Sterling, Opinion Polls, Bookmaker Odds and My Forecast / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2016

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The EU Referendum according to the opinion polls is too close to call as illustrated by the most recent opinion polls and resulting momentum analysis that literally puts the vote on a knife edge. However the same does not hold true for the bookmakers or financial markets that are apparently assuming that a REMAIN outcome is a done deal which is set against my forecast conclusion for Brexit, from someone who correctly called both the 2015 General Election that the pollsters got so badly wrong and the 2014 Scottish referendum.

Wednesday, June 22, 2016

BrExit Looks Set to Win EU Referendum, Final Opinion Polls Give LEAVE Lead Over REMAIN / ElectionOracle / EU_Referendum

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Latest opinion polls taken today (22nd of June) both put LEAVE marginally ahead of REMAIN, TNS (online) 43% LEAVE against 41% for REMAIN and Opinium (online) 45% LEAVE against 44% for REMAIN. Which illustrates that whilst leave as the advantage nevertheless given the margin of error then both camps are virtually neck and neck, literally balanced on a knife edge going into voting day that compares against the dramatic shifts in the poll leads of the past 10 days.

Wednesday, June 22, 2016

These Conditions Ensure That Gold Stocks Will Continue To Rise Over The Coming Years / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016

By: Hubert_Moolman

Gold stocks need very specific conditions in order to perform well. The last time most of these conditions were present was during the Great Depression. However, conditions are currently shaping up to be even more ideal.

The performance of the Dow is one example of conditions that heavily influences how gold stocks fair.
Historically, gold stocks had some of the best rallies after significant Dow peaks. This was true for the 1929 and 1973  major Dow peaks.

Wednesday, June 22, 2016

Proof that the Gold Bears are Wrong / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Michael_Swanson

I am bullish on gold and I own gold and mining stocks, because gold is in a bull market.

I have been trying to do my best to tell people this, but many people simply do not believe it.

Gold and the mining stocks went through a very brutal bear market for five years and that makes it hard for people to believe that any of the rallies are real. What is more there are several “experts” that keep calling for gold to fall to $1,000 or even $250 an ounce that are scaring people out of gold.