Wednesday, July 20, 2016
Gold Daily Cycle Low Still Several Days Away / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Gary_Savage
Some analysts were expecting gold to form an early Daily Cycle Low. I’ve been warning that gold needs to break the cycle trend line before the DCL can bottom and to beware of a fake out. It turns out I was correct to be patient. I doubt gold will form the DCL until right before, or on the FOMC statement next week. More patience.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 20, 2016
China Economic Troubles - Is Kyle Bass Finally Getting His Revenge? / Economics / China Economy
By: Clif_Droke
One of America's most prominent hedge fund managers is betting the farm that China's economic troubles are far from over. His bet centers around the U.S. dollar and by extension several Asian currencies. What happens to the dollar from here will determine whether this man's epic trading positions pays off, and China suffers a major setback, and whether his worst case scenario for the global economic outlook is merely a mirage. If he's right, the outcome of his bet will also affect the commodities market and perhaps even the equities market.
Wednesday, July 20, 2016
Forex Trading: Investors Await Inside Bar Breakout for Clear Direction in USD/JPY / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Richard_Cox
The US Dollar (USD) extended upside movement against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Thursday, increasing the price of USD/JPY to more than 105.00 as bulls gain strength. The technical bias however remains bearish because of a Lower Low in the recent downside move. The pair has formed a great inside bar trade setup after the emergence of a giant candle on 24th June amid Brexit vote. A breakout through the aforementioned candle will provide clear direction for the pair.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 20, 2016
Why Derivatives Are So Dangerous to the Financial System - Video / Stock-Markets / Derivatives
By: Mario_Innecco
I'd like to talk about derivatives this evening
there's a lot of talk about derivatives and a lot of people have questions about
the rivers so here we go basically you know derivative is a financial instrument almost like an
insurance on an underlying acid and the modern-day derivatives market really
sprung up in nineteenth-century us in the Midwest especially chicago where you
know people came myou know to sell the grains the cattle and the buyers also came to buy the
grains in the cattle and for example a farmer who grew corn he wanted to lock in a price
you know in the future because he thought the price of corn Michael down
and he needed to know how much money he was going to get he would you know sell
a future in corn and the the buyer of the corn
Wednesday, July 20, 2016
TNX - A little Late But Still Expected / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Ed_Carlson
The high forecast by the Hybrid Lindsay model for early last week was delayed for three days by option expiration. Even if the high is seen today or tomorrow, that would still be within the margin of error for the model. The new high in the Dow probably means that a new Basic Advance began last February but we’ll wait and see what happens during the upcoming pullback before making that “official”.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 20, 2016
Why Lithium Will See Another Price Spike This Fall / Commodities / Lithium
By: OilPrice_Com
So far, lithium has been the hottest metal of 2016, beating out gold, with exponential demand expected over the coming years. Although the price trajectory of the metal has been subdued in recent months, the fundamentals behind the long-term trajectory suggest strong potential for long-term growth. Price doubling from 2014/2015 was first seen in China and is now being felt worldwide, with lithium hydroxide prices from $16-20 and carbonate prices from $12-14 thousand USD per ton. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 20, 2016
Bitcoin in Asymmetric Position / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Paul_Rejczak
In short: no speculative positions.
The recent halving of Bitcoin rewards has proved to be a sort of no-volatility event. In an article on CoinDesk, we read:
One of the primary expectations leading up to halving was that the price would drop due to an expected rumor-and-event cycle, whereby traders would accumulate the asset, riding the excitement up until the actual halving took place, at which point they would exit positions.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 19, 2016
Deleveraging in Motion - Believe It or Not, Our Money Velocity Sucks! / Economics / Deflation
By: Harry_Dent
Dr. Lacy Hunt has been featured more than any outside speaker at our IES conferences. Why? Because he’s the only classical economist I fully admire and he is a successful bond investment manager in the real world that understands the trend towards deflation, despite unprecedented money-printing.I love the gold bugs for being realistic and honest about the debt and financial asset bubble we’re in, especially when most mainstream economists and analysts are blind to it.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 19, 2016
The Peak Oil Paradox Revisited / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Raul_I_Meijer
It’s been a while since we posted an article by our friend Euan Mearns, who was active at The Oil Drum at the same time Nicole and I were. Is it really 11 years ago that started, and almost 9 since we left? You know the drill: we ‘departed’ because they didn’t want us to cover finance, which we said was the more immediate crisis, yada yada. Euan stayed on for longer, and the once unequalled Oil Drum is no more.
On one of our long tours, which were based around Nicole’s brilliant public speaking engagements, we went to see Euan in Scotland, he teaches at Aberdeen University. I think it was 2011?! An honor. Anyway, always a friend.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 19, 2016
Waiting on the Euro to Bottom / Currencies / Euro
By: Gary_Savage
I’m just waiting for the euro to confirm a final intermediate cycle bottom. It’s now very late in the timing band at 33 weeks. So the bottom could occur at any time. My best guess is the euro will bottom and the dollar will top on, or the day before, the FOMC meeting next week.
The intermediate trend line has been broken. This needs to happen during cycle lows to get technical traders on the wrong side of the market. We are waiting for the trend line to break in gold.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 19, 2016
SPX Challenges the Upper Trendline / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX appears to have made its high on Friday at 2169.05, 17.2 days from its June 27 low. This morning, the Premarket is challenging the upper trendline of the Orthodox Broadening Top at 2160.00. Once a reversal beneath the trendline is evident, I will comment on what may be expected next.
ZeroHedge reports, “After a head-scratching S&P500 rally - which not even Goldman has been able to justify - pushed stocks to new all time highs with seemingly daily record highs regardless of fundamentals or geopolitical troubles, overnight US equity futures dipped modestly, tracking weak European stocks as demand for safe haven assets including U.S. Treasuries and gold rises. Asian stocks outside Japan fall. Crude oil trades near $45 a barrel. “
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 19, 2016
Missing ’28 Pages’ of the 9/11 Report Released into Blitzkrieg of World Events / Politics / Iraq War
By: Jeff_Berwick
We have been massive and outspoken proponents that 9/11 was an inside job since our inception in 2010. Five or more years ago that was a fairly extreme stance. We’d often get people calling us “crazy,” but I’m used to it.
In the last few years, however, it appears that anyone who has a decent internet connection and has looked into the details of what happened on September 11, 2001, probably agrees with our stance.
For the last few years this has caused an outcry that the “missing 28 pages” from the 9/11 Report be released. Eventually, as the pressure increased, we became confident the pages would be released and began to wonder about the timing.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 19, 2016
UK Savings Interest Rates Fall to Record Lows / Personal_Finance / Savings Accounts
By: MoneyFacts
Data from Moneyfacts.co.uk can reveal that rate reductions in the savings market have now outweighed rate rises for nine consecutive months.
In June, Moneyfacts recorded just 14 savings rate rises. Disappointingly, rate reductions over the same period completely outshone this figure, with the number of rate decreases standing at a staggering 117, with some deals falling by as much as 1.30%.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 19, 2016
Likelihood of Organized Disruption at GOP Convention / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: BATR
The anticipated and long awaited political theater of the political conventions is upon us. The Republican gala has special expectation. “The Donald” will make a real show out of this high tension wire walk across the political divide of GOP careerist party stalwarts. Those populist upstart activists that raise the participation impact of new primary voters are invading the clandestine chambers of the privileged establishment. The never Trump movement will have their last gasp, but the surreptitious NeoCon insiders will not go away. Their covert choice is still Hillary Clinton.
Tuesday, July 19, 2016
More on the ‘Breadth Thrust’ and Stock Market Internals / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Gary_Tanashian
NFTRH 404 deviated from the usual format of widespread, in-depth coverage of US and global markets, precious metals and commodities in order to focus on two main themes. One was a view of building short-term risks in the gold market [possibly pending new rally highs] and the other of a developing bullish phase in the US stock market. We reproduce part of that segment here…
Tuesday, July 19, 2016
VIX Falling....Volatility Falling....Understanding Stock Market Froth / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Jack_Steiman
Let's understand what's happening with the VIX. For quite a long time, many, many months, the VIX kept finding closing support at 13.00 or higher. We would see some intraday spiked in to the 12's, but ultimately we would find a reading that closed above 13.00. This would mark the end of an uptrend for very short term. The VIX would then spike a few points, and sometimes more than just a few points, and, thus, we'd see the market fall back down. The bears could always count on a 13.00 close, or higher, as a time to get short. Now we're dealing with three consecutive days with the VIX closing below 13.00. A change of trend that occurred once we were able to, eventually, close above S&P 500 2134. With the VIX this low, the market does something else traders don't love. It grinds.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 19, 2016
Banking Stocks Index - Does Danger Lurk? / Companies / Banking Stocks
By: Marty_Chenard
Does Danger lurk on the Banking Index?
Last week, the Banking Index closed at 67.22 with the C-RSI at a Danger level of +1.59.
The Accelerator had a very small down tick. The Timing Indicator was in negative territory with an up tick that still showed technical upside trending.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 19, 2016
FX Traders: Get a Free Week of Forecasts (Details inside) / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: EWI
Dear reader,
Now through 5 p.m. July 22, you are invited to get free access to an online event that only happens once or twice a year at elliottwave.com:
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 19, 2016
Christine Lagarde on Turkish Markets, Global Banking and Politics / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016
By: Bloomberg
In an exclusive interview with Bloomberg Television’s Tom Keene, IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde discusses a range of issues including Turkish markets, the challenges around global banking and money laundering, the Italian bank crisis and political turmoil on both sides of the Atlantic.
Tuesday, July 19, 2016
Climbing Gold and Silver’s Wall of Worry / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: MoneyMetals
Confidence is slippery, even when you are a metals investor sitting atop the best performing assets of 2016. It doesn’t help when 4 years of a miserable bear market remains fresh in our memories. Any weakness in prices and it can feel like markets are getting ready to plunge right back to $13 silver and $1,000 gold.
That feeling is called the “Wall of Worry”, and bulls are going to have to climb it by staying in the market even if their emotions are telling them to bail. Let’s review the last 6 weeks because they are quite instructional.
Read full article... Read full article...