Monday, March 20, 2017
Stock Market Uncertainty Following Interest Rate Increase - Will Uptrend Continue? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,410, and profit target at 2,200, S&P 500 index).
Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook remains neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral
Monday, March 20, 2017
No Cash ISA Season 2017 / Personal_Finance / ISA's
Moneyfacts UK Savings Trends Treasury Report data, yet to be published, highlights that the number of ISA products has risen to 311, marking the first time the number of ISAs has stood above 300 since September 2016. The long-term ISA rate has also risen, for the fourth consecutive month.
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Monday, March 20, 2017
Where the Fed Goes, Other Central Banks May Not Follow / Interest-Rates / Central Banks
It has been a busy couple of days for the world's central banks. Since the U.S. Federal Reserve made its decision to hike interest rates, rate announcements have followed from the People's Bank of China, the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England. This confluence of activity from most of the key guardians of the global economy provides a good opportunity to take stock of where things stand.
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Monday, March 20, 2017
Precious Metals : Who’s in Charge ? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
In this report I’m going to update some charts I posted back in November of last year before the PM complex bottomed in late December. What I was showing back in November were many of the H&S tops that were breaking down in an impulse leg to the downside. The lows in December of last year is where they bottomed and began a counter trend rally that took prices back up to the February 2017 highs. From a Chartology perspective all we’ve had so far was a backtest to some of the necklines at this point in time. Maybe it will end up being more, but for now the backtests are holding resistance.
I would like to start with one of the more important ratio charts which compares Gold to the US dollar. During the bull market years this ratio chart built out a parallel uptrend channel that was a thing of beauty. In 2000 this ratio started to build out an inverse H&S bottom which reversed the bear market to a bull market. For the next 11 years this ratio built out one consolidation pattern on top of the next, which is bull market action. Even the crash in 2008 built out a H&S consolidation pattern which launched the rest of the bull market into the 2011 high.
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Monday, March 20, 2017
Gold and Silver 200-Day Moving Averages / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
The precious metals complex enjoyed a strong week mostly due to a post-Fed explosion on Wednesday. Although gold stocks sold off to end the week, they finished up almost 5% for the week. Gold gained 2.4% on the week while Silver gained 2.9%. The miners enjoyed massive gains following the previous two rate hikes and that has some optimistic about a repeat scenario. However, the miners and metals need to prove they can recapture their 200-day moving averages before we become optimistic.
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Monday, March 20, 2017
Gold and USD Cycles : A Roadmap / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
Monday will be day 6 of Gold’s third Trading Cycle (TC) out of the December 2016 Yearly Cycle Low (YCL). Next week’s price action will be critical in determining if we will see a higher high in this Intermediate Cycle (IC) or just a secondary high that will set the IC downtrend line into the next IC Low. Based on my cycle work, I do believe the Gold Bull has resumed, however, the transitions from Bear to Bull markets are typically epic battles that take time to play out.
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Monday, March 20, 2017
A Stock Market Dip in the Offing? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
Right now, the coming dip could be a little scary, but shouldn’t amount to much, maybe around 4%. My guess is the first couple of days next week should see a sharp drop, but a buy the dip mentally and seasonal strength should prevail for now. The astros were ripe for a top around February 27-March 2. We have another even more complex period coming up March 31-April 15. March 31 could be a top and then another secondary bottom around April 11-12 would be ideal. A sharp drop next week would produce a need for a momentum failure retest by around early/mid April.
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Monday, March 20, 2017
Gold and Silver Markets Update / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
Technical analyst Jack Chan charts the latest moves in the gold and silver sectors.
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Monday, March 20, 2017
Obamacare Healthcare Repeal or Obamacare 2.0? / Politics / Healthcare Sector
This Thursday, the House of Representatives will vote on a Republican bill that supposedly repeals Obamacare. However, the bill retains Obamacare's most destructive features.
That is not to say this legislation is entirely without merit. For example, the bill expands the amount individuals can contribute to a health savings account (HSA). HSAs allow individuals to save money tax-free to pay for routine medical expenses. By restoring individuals' control over healthcare dollars, HSAs remove the distortions introduced in the healthcare market by government policies encouraging over-reliance on third-party payers.
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Monday, March 20, 2017
Stock Market Correction Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: Uptrend continues.
SPX Intermediate trend: The correction from 2400 continues,
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily-basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
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Monday, March 20, 2017
Why The Status Quo Is Under Increasing Attack By 'Populist People Power' / Politics / Social Issues
Protecting The Status Quo Is Failing
We need to fully appreciate yet another example of what the mainstream media doesn't yet get! The "People" increasingly don't see the system working for them anymore and have as consequence become much more willing to try something very different, possibly even extreme, depending on how serious their personal blight has become!
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Sunday, March 19, 2017
Scotland Independence Referendum 2.0? / Politics / Scotland
Sunday, March 19, 2017
US Fed is Driving Stock Prices and Volatility / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
Last week’s news that the US Fed will raise rates from 0.75% to 1.00% drove the US markets, generally, over 0.40% higher after Fed Chairman Janet Yellen announced the hike. As of right now, the NASDAQ has pushed to a new all-time high and the SPY is very close to an all-time high.
Yet, as we move into the end of March 2017 and begin the spring season, we have to be aware of the risks that are before us. OIL has recently seen a downward price break based on over supply, yet is up today on the Fed news. Gold and Silver are up nearly 2% today. The US Dollar is down nearly 0.75%.
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Sunday, March 19, 2017
Why the SNP WILL Destroy Scotland, Exit UK Single Market for EU - IndyRef2 / Politics / Scotland
The SNP have declared that their primary reason for demanding a second Independence referendum barely 2 years on from the last 'once in a lifetime' referendum was as a consequence of the UK intending to LEAVE the European Union including exiting the EU Single Market.
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Sunday, March 19, 2017
Crypto Craziness: Bitcoin Plunges on Fork Concerns, Steem Skyrockets and Dash Surges Above $100 / Currencies / Bitcoin
The last month has not helped bitcoin’s reputation as being a volatile currency.
A month ago bitcoin was trading near $1,000. Two weeks later it sat on the cusp of $1,300. Then, after the SEC turned down a bitcoin ETF, it sank below $1,000 briefly a week ago.
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Sunday, March 19, 2017
What ‘Ice-Nine’ Means for Your Money / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2017
Dear Reader,
As you read this message, financial elites are devising a plan that could see them take complete control of your money.
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Sunday, March 19, 2017
The Future for U.S. Stocks has never been so bright / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
Roy Bombardia writes: The U.S. stock market, as indicated by the S&P 500, is on the verge of a massive rally. This rally will be comparable to that of 1995 or 2013 when the S&P more than 30% in one year! Here's why.This is the first time in 8 years in which literally every single market will go up
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Saturday, March 18, 2017
Angela Merkel in Washington / Politics / US Politics
Saturday, March 18, 2017
Stock Market 4 Year Cycle / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
The market started the week at SPX 2373. After ticking up to SPX 2374 on Monday the market gapped down on Tuesday to SPX 2358. After that it rallied to SPX 2390, after the FED raised rates 25 bps to 1.0% on Wednesday. Then it pulled back to SPX 2378 to end the week. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.55%. Economic reports for the week were mostly positive. On the downtick: the NY/Philly FED, building permits, and the Q1 GDP estimate. On the uptick: the CPI/PPI, retail sales, business inventories, the NAHB, housing starts, capacity utilization, leading indicators, consumer sentiment, the WLEI, plus weekly jobless claims improved. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by durable goods orders and housing. Best to your week!
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Friday, March 17, 2017
The Only Article You Need to Read to Understand the Trump Phenomenon / Politics / US Politics
The following is an attempt to explain the Trump phenomenon. It is NOT a pro-Trump article; it is simply an explanation for how Trump accomplished what he did, and why so few predicted his success and the impact of his economic policies.
There’s a simple reason so few people in the media and in finance understand the economic impacts of a Trump Presidency.
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