Monday, May 22, 2017
Stock Markets Should Fear Central Banks More Than Trump / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
Trump’s economic agenda has become further delayed by what seems like daily leaks from the White House. This may finally bring about the long-awaited equity market pullback of at least 5 percent. However, what will prove to be far more troubling than Trump’s ongoing feuds with the DOJ and the press, is the upcoming market collapse due to the removal of the bids from global central banks.The markets have been feeding off artificial interest rates from our Federal Reserve and that of the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan for years. In addition, the global economy has been stimulated further by a tremendous amount of new debt generated from China that was underwritten by the PBOC. After it reached the saturation point of empty cities, China is now building out its “Belt and Road Initiative” that could add trillions of dollars to the debt-fueled stimulus scheme that has been spewed out over the world-wide economy.
Monday, May 22, 2017
What an America First Trade Policy Could Mean for the US Dollar / Commodities / Crude Oil
JACOB L. SHAPIRO : It was only a few months ago that OPEC, once the de facto arbiter of oil markets, seemed to have a plan to inflate the price of oil: The cartel, along with several non-OPEC members, agreed in December to cut production by roughly 1.2 million barrels per day.
And for the first quarter of 2017, OPEC largely made good on its pledge. It produced 1.1 million fewer barrels of oil per day in the first quarter of 2017 than it did in the final quarter of 2016. Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s largest producer, accounted for 55% of the cuts.
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Monday, May 22, 2017
James Rickards: Gold’s “Decisive Turn Around” – “Next Stop Is $1,300 Or Higher” / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
James Rickards via Daily Reckoning
But the most important development this week may be the one you never heard about on the news or the internet.
On May 10, gold launched a decisive turnaround from its most recent decline.
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Monday, May 22, 2017
US Dollar 3 Year Cycle Low Charts / Currencies / US Dollar
The dollar is now 4 days into its final bloodbath phase. This phase usually lasts 5-7 days. We should get a bottom this week.
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Monday, May 22, 2017
Buy-to-Let Mortgages for Limited Companies Double / Housing-Market / Mortgages
The Buy-to-Let (BTL) market has faced extra scrutiny recently as landlords have been hit by several BTL tax changes in recent years. As tax reliefs are being cut, landlords are looking at their options, with many considering incorporation. Luckily for them, research from moneyfacts.co.uk shows that the proportion of BTL deals available to limited companies has doubled in just one year.
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Monday, May 22, 2017
Stocks Fluctuate Along Record Highs - Topping Pattern Or Just Pause? 22nd May / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,410, and profit target at 2,200, S&P 500 index).
Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook remains neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral
Monday, May 22, 2017
Gold and Sillver Markets - Silver Price Sharp Selloff - 22nd May / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
Technical analyst Jack Chan charts the latest moves in the precious metals market, noting a price bounce off positive divergence
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Monday, May 22, 2017
An Ethereum Price Forecast For 2017 / Currencies / BlockChain
The price of cryptocurrency Ethereum in 2017 is going through the roof, similar to the price of Bitcoin and several other cryptocurrencies. Our Ethereum price forecast for 2017 and later is very bullish.
Interestingly, there are no Ethereum price forecasts available on the web. So we are among the first ones to forecast the Ethereum price for 2017 and later. There is even no Ethereum price forecast on the official Ethereum site ethereum.org.
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Monday, May 22, 2017
Stock Market Volatile C-Wave / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: Uptrend continues.
SPX Intermediate trend: The correction from 2400 on 3/08 continues, with the B-wave now in place.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily-basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
Monday, May 22, 2017
Stock Market Trend Forecast and Fear Trading / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
The broad US stock market last week took a tumble sending a massive wave of fear through investors’ minds. On Wednesday May 17th the S&P 500 index plummeted 1.7% causing the fear index to jump a whopping 48% in a single session.
What does this mean and what should we expect going forward? I don’t see the recent drop as being anything to worry about at this point. It’s important to remember that some of that larges drops in stocks happen during a bull market (rising trend). In fact, these stand out sharp drops on the charts are nothing more than the market trying to buck investors out of the bull market (scare them out) before it continues higher.
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Sunday, May 21, 2017
THREE Charts That Tell Us the Next Financial Crisis is Closer Than Most Think / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2017
The election night bull market trendline is about to break. The only reason stocks have held up is hype and hope for Trump’s economic agenda. With the entire MSM, establishment shills, and deep state operatives trying to derail this, the market is about to lose this prop.
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Sunday, May 21, 2017
US Dollar Cycle : Deep Dive / Currencies / US Dollar
I thought I would start off this weekend by recapping one of the most important aspects of Walter Bressert’s Cycle Theory. Very simply put, it is that Longer Cycles almost always dominate the shorter Cycles. This is Huge because if you understand where you are in the Longer Cycles, trading the shorter ones becomes much easier.
Is the USD really topping here? This is an extremely importing Cycle call here because if it is, Gold and the broader Commodity Complex may well be ready to become much more bullish going forward. There is no doubt that the USD has been very bullish since 2014 but this post and related charts will provide you with why a trend change maybe upon us.
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Sunday, May 21, 2017
Euro Remains Bullish Above 1.11 / Currencies / Euro
The EUR/USD experienced major upside moves last week with prices moving forcefully ahead of the psychological mark at 1.10. The moves are significant because the suggest that we are now seeing an end to the previous downtrend that had been in place since June 2016.
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Sunday, May 21, 2017
Stocks Bull Market and Donald Trump's Death Knell / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
In the minds of many investors, the election victory of Donald J. Trump to the United States Presidency was nothing short of a miracle. Following his shocking victory, expectations were high that Trump would, with the help of Congress, fulfill his promises of tax reform and infrastructure spending. The lifting of the heavy penalties associated with Obamacare was another hope that investors cherished. Many hailed his victory by declaring that it was “morning in America” again. But after only six months since the election, Trump's presidency has hit a potentially fatal obstacle and he now faces the growing possibility of impeachment.
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Sunday, May 21, 2017
Bitcoin Breaks the $2,000 Mark as Cryptocurrencies Continue to Explode Higher / Currencies / Bitcoin
Bitcoin has just broken through the $2,000 level according to the CoinDesk Price Index.
The last time it traded below $1,000 was on March 26th, meaning it has doubled in the last two months. And the last time it traded below $500 was less than a year ago, on May 26th, 2016, meaning it has quadrupled in the last year.Of course, we’ve been talking about it since it was $3 in 2011.
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Sunday, May 21, 2017
Stocks, Commodities and Gold Multi-Market Status / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2017
It has now been exactly 10 months since we established 2410 as the measured objective for the S&P 500. In forming a potential double top this week at 2405.77 I’d say we are close enough to call the target in (as we did in February when the first top was made on what we called “peak Trump” day, post-congressional address).
Now, a target is not a stop sign; in this case it was a long-term objective based on a chart pattern, period. It could make me look like the genius I certainly am not, or it could just pause at the target on its way to further upside mania and a potential market blow off. Don’t let ’em baffle you with bullshit, nobody knows which of those, or whatever else may be in store.
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Sunday, May 21, 2017
Stock Market Day Trading Strategies and Brief 20th May 2017 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
Technically Speaking
1. Technical Summary:
Short Term Trend: Consolidating.
Medium Term Trend: Bullish.
Long Term Trend: Bullish.
28 Day Stochastics: Overbought.
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Saturday, May 20, 2017
DOW Needs to Rally Big or Correction is Next / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
The market started the week at SPX 2391. The market rose on Monday, hit an all-time high on Tuesday at SPX 2406, then started to pullback. On Wednesday the market had a gap down opening, hit SPX 2353 on Thursday, then rallied to end the week at 2382. For the week the SPX/DOW lost 0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.60%. Economic reports were mostly positive. On the downtick: the NY FED, housing starts, building permits, and the WLEI. On the uptick: the Philly FED, the NAHB, industrial production, capacity utilization, leading indicators, the Q2 GDP estimate, plus weekly jobless claims declined. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by: Q1 GDP, durable goods, FOMC minutes, and housing.
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Saturday, May 20, 2017
Gold Somewhat Ignores US Dollar Weakness / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
The precious metals complex rebounded as expected after becoming very oversold just a few weeks ago. The rebound has been aided by weakness in the US Dollar, which plunged roughly 2% over several days. However, upon further inspection Gold’s rebound has been entirely dollar-centric. Gold has remained weak in real terms and strength in the gold stocks and Silver has been rather muted. In short, the lack of much stronger performance in the face of US Dollar weakness bodes for increasing downside risk over the near term.
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Saturday, May 20, 2017
EURUSD reaches DO or DIE moment! / Currencies / Euro
My Bias: short in wave 3 blue.
Wave Structure: downward impulse wave 1, 2 blue
Long term wave count: lower in wave 3 blue
Important risk events: EUR: Eurogroup Meetings. USD: FOMC Members Speak.