Thursday, March 01, 2018
Stock Market High Volatility, Higher inflation, low unemployment / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Abalgorithm
Unemployment in the last year has sunk to a 17-year low, yet inflation continues to run below the Fed’s 2% target. Abroad, it is the same story: in Germany and Japan unemployment is at multidecade lows but inflation remains stuck below 2%. We are in a new normal of low reported unemployment and low inflation across the world. However if history is a gauge of what is to come, we are headed into a different normal, one that will spell trouble for all those who have reposed blind faith in risk markets without due diligence. Volatility has broken into a new normal range of 18 to 35. Bond yields are flirting at 2.9% from 2.6% earlier last year. A new normal in yields around the world. Bond investors are fleeing. The equity markets have had a damaging correction in Feb. It has dead cat bounced back but most smart traders will be exiting their long positions. This may be the final chance. We look at some key indicators to see where we stand and what the future may hold.
Thursday, March 01, 2018
The Potential $54 Trillion Cost Of The Fed's Planned Interest Rate Increases / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Dan_Amerman
The United States national debt is currently about $20 trillion, and the federal government is paying some of the lowest interest rates in history on that debt. The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates five times now, and is publicly considering another seven increases between 2018 and 2020, for a total increase of 3%.
What will be the impact on the national debt and deficits if the interest payments on the debt jump upwards because of the actions of the Fed?
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Thursday, March 01, 2018
Dark Cloud Covers Blue Chip Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Paul_Rejczak
Yesterday's trading session brought the main U.S. stock market indexes 0.8-1.5% down, as investors' sentiment worsened following Tuesday's downward reversal. Stocks broke above their short-term consolidation on Monday, but they failed to continue higher. Consequently, they fell into their last week's consolidation and the S&P 500 index got closer to 2,700 mark again. Stocks are expected to open lower today, but they may retrace some of their two-day-long sell-off. Where is a potential support level?
Stocks extended their Tuesday's move down yesterday, as the main U.S. stock market indexes lost 0.8-1.5% vs. their Tuesday's closing prices. Investors' sentiment worsened and the market got back to its last week's trading range. The S&P 500 index fell closer to 2,700 mark again. It currently trades 5.5% below January 26 record high of 2,872.87. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.5% yesterday, as it was relatively weaker than the broad stock market gauge. On the other hand, the technology Nasdaq Composite lost 0.8% yesterday. Tech stocks were relatively stronger than the rest.
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Thursday, March 01, 2018
United States Steel Corporation $X Daily Elliott Wave View / Companies / Steel Sector
By: ElliottWave-Forecast
United States Steel Corporation (NYSE: X) is the second largest steel domestic producer behind Nucor Corporation (NYSE: NUE) and also the world’s 24th largest steel producer.
Last year, Steel price surged higher reaching new all time high of 4772 in December gaining +60% before a correction took place. The price is expected keep rising in the coming years as the demand for steel in critical industries keeps increasing.
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Thursday, March 01, 2018
Doritos 100% Every Time WIN Promotion! Cash Prizes Upto £500 per Day! / Personal_Finance / Freebies and Comps
By: Anika_Walayat
Doritos recently launched a promotion that we said at the time was easy to win, one of thousands of DAILY prizes awarded every day until the 16th of April, ranging from £500,all the way down to a free packet of Doritos crisps. Given the large number of 121,000 prizes up for grabs then this really was deemed to be an easy to win promotion. Well our experience to date confirms all of that as so far we have entered 18 codes from 18 Doritos packets and WON 18 Prizes! 16 packets of crisps and £5 X2, an incredible 100% success rate! So definitely don't miss this apparent 100% winnable promo, at least at this stage. So do check out our video that explains the specs and prizes of this remarkably easy to win promotion.
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Thursday, March 01, 2018
The 'Beast from the East' UK Extreme Snow Weather - Sheffield Day 2 / Local / Sheffield
By: N_Walayat
The 'Beast from the East' weather from Siberia finally hit Sheffield on Wednesday Day 2 after the relative mild Tuesday, with heavy snowfall fall of between 5 cm and 10cm disrupting travel throughout the day as snow flurries continued to fall onto the gritted roads in the coldest weather experienced for at least the past 5 years continuing well into the night! Many motorists decided to do the wise thing and leave their vehicles parked rather than risk driving. However, in the interests of wanting to take a better look at the impacts from the 'Beast from the East's heavy snowfall, I decided to hunt down some of the most treacherous roads to drive in Sheffield, none more so then going to the outskirts of Sheffield, literally within throwing distance of Derbyshire as the this video illustrates, driving in the 'Beast from the East'
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Wednesday, February 28, 2018
Here’s What Gold is Waiting for / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Gold was well bid during the equity correction but it could not breakout then and has retreated as equities have roared back. As a result, the Gold to stocks ratio has retraced most of its recent surge. Meanwhile, the US Dollar has rebounded and the oversold and overhated bond market could be starting a rally. The recent rise in long-term bond yields which has benefitted Gold appears due for a pause or correction. Meanwhile, Gold could also correct and consolidate as it waits for a breakout in long-term bond yields which should in turn benefit Gold.
Wednesday, February 28, 2018
America’s New Steel and Aluminum Protectionism / Commodities / Steel Sector
By: Dan_Steinbock
Now that the White House seeks to turn China’s steel and aluminum overcapacity into a national security matter, America’s new protectionism risks international trade discord.
Following a trade investigation of imports, U.S. Department of Commerce recently recommended imposing heavy tariffs or quotas on foreign producers of steel and aluminum in the interest of national security. Armed with steel and aluminum reports, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross stated that steel is vital to U.S. national security and current import flows are adversely impacting the steel industry.
Wednesday, February 28, 2018
Gold Stocks Break Down below 2017 and 2018 Lows! / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The HUI Index just closed below both 2017 and 2018 lows. The interpretations of many developments in the market are vague and subjective. But not major breakdowns. Gold miners just showed exceptional weakness by closing at new lows even though gold is still above $1,300 and the S&P corrected more than half of its recent sharp decline. Can anything save the precious metals sector from falling further?
Yes, but based on what happened yesterday, it seems that the golden Superman may have some trouble getting into the scene.
Another downturn in the USD Index would likely trigger a corrective upswing in gold and silver, which would in turn cause the prices of mining stocks to move higher. The “problem” here is that the USD has just invalidated the breakdown below the declining medium-term support line, which significantly lowered the odds for another short-term decline.
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Wednesday, February 28, 2018
China Growing Peoples Unrest Following Xi Jinping Declaring Himself as New Emperor / Politics / China
By: Submissions
Rongxian Mu writes: Cities across China such as Zunyi are increasingly witnessing out breaks of unrest following Xi Jinping's announcement to declare himself at least Emperor for life and likely to seek a dynastic rule of China some decades down the road. The people of China are not going to stand for this and thus a growing resistance against the rule of the communist elite is taking place and spreading across China, none of which is being reported on by the official media.
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Wednesday, February 28, 2018
The Light at the End of the HUI Gold Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: Rambus_Chartology
I’m going to use this long term weekly chart for the HUI as a proxy for the other PM stock indexes. This chart also shows you why I’ve remained very cautious on any PM stock rally.
What we know for sure is that the HUI rallied strongly out of its January 2016 low to the August 2016 high which was very impressive. At the time it looked like the initial impulse move in a brand new bull market which was a welcomed sight after 5 years of bear market price action. At the 2016 top is where we should have expected some type of consolidation pattern to start building out to consolidate that massive gain, but what we got is not what we wanted to see.
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Wednesday, February 28, 2018
More State Regulations and Higher Minimum Wage / Politics / US Politics
By: BATR
Disputing that the economy is healthy has been an occupational job for decades. Still the government unemployment stats paint a picture that full employment is upon us. Undercounting the permanently discouraged may just be the largest category of growth that goes under reported. However the empirical data for the real causes and disincentives of both the employer and employee are usually glossed over. No doubt the shift in actual job requirements are constantly changing, but the effects of switching the ground rules makes some state governments non-competitive with other jurisdictions.
The New York Law Journal digs into the weeds to illustrate a proposed regulation that cannot help improve the plight of labor in 'No Help Wanted': The Regulation and Elimination of Retail Positions outlines an absurd example of governmental interference.
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Wednesday, February 28, 2018
Does the Stock Market Need to Make a Pullback? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
I expected the S&P 500 to make a short term pullback before rallying higher in the medium term. Hence the current rally’s intensity does surprise me a little. But I’m unfazed because 95% of my capital is traded via the Medium-Long Term Model, which ignores the short term.
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Wednesday, February 28, 2018
Sheffield Street Tree Fellings - Pingle Road, Dobcroft School Night Attacks! / Local / Sheffield
By: N_Walayat
Sheffield tree fellings resumed this week after a 4 week pause following the Mayhem on Meersbrook Park Road on the 22nd of January 2018. Whilst the police have been taking a heavy handed attitude towards the protestors this week. It's what's happening elsewhere that has children weeping on their way to School as they walk past trees that have been attacked and mutilated during the night, literally drive by fellings, leaving behind butchered trees as is the case on Pingle Road at the end of which sits Dobcroft Infants and Junior School.
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Wednesday, February 28, 2018
Doritos 100% Every Time WIN Promotion, Cash Prizes Upto £500 per Day! / Personal_Finance / Freebies and Comps
By: Sami_Walayat
Doritos recently launched a promotion that we said at the time was easy to win, one of thousands of DAILY prizes awarded every day until the 16th of April, ranging from £500,all the way down to a free packet of Doritos crisps. Given the large number of 121,000 prizes up for grabs then this really was deemed to be an easy to win promotion. Well our experience to date confirms all of that as so far we have entered 18 codes from 18 Doritos packets and WON 18 Prizes! 16 packets of crisps and £5 X2, an incredible 100% success rate! So definitely don't miss this apparent 100% winnable promo, at least at this stage. So do check out our video that explains the specs and prizes of this remarkably easy to win promotion.
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Tuesday, February 27, 2018
Stocks May be Turning Down / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX futures are pulling back from their overnight high and have turned red from yesterday’s close. Yesterday may have indeed been a Cycles turn date, but delayed by the algos. However, if their motive was to bring investors back into the market, they may have succeeded.
Yesterday’s high clearly marked this rally as a Wave C of Wave (2). My original Wave count was correct. However, I allowed myself to be influenced by others who were a little less careful about Wave structure.
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Tuesday, February 27, 2018
Stocks? Who Cares? You Should Worry about Something Else, Bonds! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Investors are still worried about the stock market. It’s quite understandable, given the recent correction, but it draws their attention away from the really important developments. Let’s analyze the hidden threats and consider how they could affect the gold prices.
It’s Bonds, Stupid!
Let’s establish one thing at the beginning. The bond market is more important than the stock market. First, it’s significantly bigger. The global bond market exceeds $100 trillion, while the global stock market is higher than $70 trillion. Point for bonds.
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Tuesday, February 27, 2018
Fresh Fight For Best Five-year Fixed Rate Savings Account Deals / Personal_Finance / Savings Accounts
By: MoneyFacts
Savers may be pleased to hear that rates are improving on five-year fixed rate bonds. Furthermore, it may not necessarily be down to the Bank of England increasing the base rate for the first time in 10 years. In fact, the average five-year fixed bond rate rests at 1.98% today, which is 0.24% higher than it was a year ago.
Remarkably, providers have not had to work too hard to attract customers, as the smallest of tweaks have resulted in propelling them to higher positions in the Best Buy tables. Indeed, since the start of February, several changes in the market have resulted in market-leading deals.
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Tuesday, February 27, 2018
Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast for March 2018 / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The crude oil price started 2018 with a BANG, rising from an opening $60 to a January peak of $67, that's a 12% gain in less than 1 month!
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Tuesday, February 27, 2018
US Goldilocks Economy is DEAD! / Economics / US Economy
By: James_Quinn
“Once you strip out the effects of the debt binge, the artificial stimulus via currency depreciation, and the fabled ‘wealth effect’ from the equity market runup, real GDP growth stripped-down to its core was the grand total of 0.7% last year. Potemkin would be proud.” – David Rosenberg
appears every president finds the religion of false economic narrative once they ascend to power. Trump never stops babbling and tweeting about the fantastic economy and raging jobs market since his election. He has embraced the stock market bubble as proof of his brilliant leadership, rather than the tens of trillions in debt propping up the most overvalued market in world history. Every president takes credit for any good news, spins bad news as good news, or blames the previous president for bad news that can’t be denied. The president has absolutely zero impact on the economy or stock market over the short term. It’s like taking credit for the sun rising in the east each morning.
The Big Lie method works wonders when you have a willfully ignorant, mathematically challenged, easily manipulated populace. I spent the entire Obama presidency obliterating the fake economic data perpetuated by his BLS, BEA and every other government agency trying to paint a rosy economic picture. I voted for Trump because the thought of Crooked Hillary as the president made me ill. Despite disagreeing with many of his economic, budgetary, and military policies during his first year in office, I’d vote for him again over Hillary in an instant. The thought of having that evil shrew running the country gives me chills.
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