Monday, June 29, 2020

Will People Accept Rampant Inflation? Hell, No! / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

What do snapping turtles and long-time investors have in common? Sector expert Michael Ballanger explains.

The Weekly Missive, which usually arrives over the weekend (sometimes on Friday, sometimes on Sunday) was delayed this weekend for one reason: I had to change it.

I started out last week with an idea that was leaning in the direction of full-on capitulation in the sense that this latest, three-month, Fed-fueled rally was beginning to smell like 2009 and 2002 and 1988. All occurred after precipitous market plunges; all were the direct result of Fed policy actions; and all obliterated the shorts.

I have been very successful in 2020 in moving into markets gripped with fear and moving away from markets obsessed with greed, but of those two emotions that have always been the "controllers" of markets since the late 1800s, greed absolutely conflagrates during Fed "printing" orgies, while fear dissipates into only minor outbursts of selling. This has been the exact playbook by which the Fed (totally owned and operated by a consortium of publicly traded banks) has been able to change the "rules of engagement" by which traders and investors have operated since inception.

Monday, June 29, 2020

Gold & Silver Begin The Move To New All-Time Highs / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

We warned about this move many months ago and just 6 days ago we issued a research post suggesting Gold had cleared major resistance and would start a rally mode to push above $2000 – possibly above $2100.  Well, guess what happened right after we made that statement? Yup – Gold started to rally higher and is currently trading near $1790 – about to break $1800 for the first time in 2020.

You can read some of our most recent Gold articles below:

June 3, 2020: Gold & Silver “Washout” – Get Ready For A Big Move Higher

June 18, 2020: Gold Has Finally Cleared Major Resistance – Time For Liftoff

June 20, 2020: All That Glitters When The World Jitters Is Probably Gold

Monday, June 29, 2020

US Stock Market Enters Parabolic Price Move – Be Prepared / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

After the recent COVID-19 virus event and the global market concerns that will warrant caution for skilled traders and investors, the US stock markets have entered an upside parabolic trend that will likely end with a massive price collapse – extremely volatile and aggressive in nature.  Our research team continues to warn of the unpredictable nature of the current price rally and the fact that the upside parabolic price trend appears more prominent in the NASDAQ sector.  If history has taught us anything, it is that these types of parabolic moves can last a while and that they always end in a deep downside price correction – usually 61% to 75% of the last upside price trend.

Our research and trading team has been advising friends and followers to stay very cautious of the current markets (excluding Gold, Miners, and certain other protective sectors).  We don’t believe this rally warrants any exposure greater than 15 to 20% given the current global economic environment and the hyper-parabolic nature of the current price move.  We believe the opportunity presented by the upside advances does not negate the potential risks of a massive collapse event taking place in the near future.  In other words, we’re more cautious of how ugly and aggressive the end of this parabolic move will be than willing to try to find some opportunities in an already hyper-extended parabolic upside price trend.

Sunday, June 28, 2020

Meet BlackRock, the New Great Vampire Squid / Politics / Market Manipulation

By: Ellen_Brown

To most people, if they are familiar with it at all, BlackRock is an asset manager that helps pension funds and retirees manage their savings through “passive” investments that track the stock market. But working behind the scenes, it is much more than that. BlackRock has been called “the most powerful institution in the financial system,” “the most powerful company in the world” and the “secret power.” It is the world’s largest asset manager and “shadow bank,” larger than the world’s largest bank (which is in China), with over $7 trillion in assets under direct management  and another $20 trillion managed through its Aladdin risk-monitoring software. BlackRock has also been called “the fourth branch of government” and “almost a shadow government”, but no part of it actually belongs to the government. Despite its size and global power, BlackRock is not even regulated as a “Systemically Important Financial Institution” under the Dodd-Frank Act, thanks to pressure from its CEO Larry Fink, who has long had “cozy” relationshipswith government officials.

Sunday, June 28, 2020

Stock Market Gummy Bears Must Act Now! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Ricky_Wen

Tuesday’s session was more of the same action as the market remains stuck within our immediate range levels. If you recall, the bulls tried to break above last week’s 3150s range high on the Emini S&P 500 (ES), but price did not have the strength to conquer it. Instead, the ES micro-double topped in the mid-3140s and spent the rest of the day grinding back towards the 3110 gap fill/prior day’s closing print.

The main takeaway remains the same as the price action remains stuck in an overall daily pattern of 3231.25-2923.75 where a temporary top and temporary bottom were confirmed a few sessions ago. The ongoing battle remains tough for both sides because the longer this thing consolidates in a high-level consolidation; the better the outcome for the ongoing bulls. This is why it’s critical for gummy bears to act now and entice the real, big, bad bears to rotate back into town.

Sunday, June 28, 2020

Stock Market S&P 500 Approaching a Defining Moment / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Paul_Rejczak

Stocks extended Monday's gains, yet retreated from the daily highs – how bullish is that? The short-term outlook hasn't changed as the S&P 500 still trades within Tuesday's intraday confines – we lack a clear short-term direction. In today's analysis, I'll cover what has changed and what has not since we last spoke. I'll also discuss the overnight dip on renewed corona fears – as if this news piece just arrived out of the left field. Yet, the market seems getting sensitive here.

Saturday, June 27, 2020

U.S. Long Bond: Let's Review the "Upward Point of Exhaustion" / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EWI

Here's an update on the trend of 30-year U.S. Treasuries since the historic early March price moves

Back in early March, the behavior of the bond market was reminiscent of what unfolded during the depths of the 2007-2009 financial crisis.

Prices and yields were making major moves in a short period of time.

On March 5, the U.S. Treasury long bond closed at 173^30.0. The very next day, on March 6, the long bond rallied to 180^19.0, a whopping 6+point move, reaching a new all-time high.

Saturday, June 27, 2020

Gold, Copper and Silver are Must-own Metals / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Richard_Mills

Gold surged on Monday after a spike in coronavirus cases worldwide dashed hopes of a quick economic recovery. Within 24-hours the number of infections globally rose 183,020, a new record, the World Health Organization reported, Reuters said the US saw a 25% increase in new COVID-19 cases over the week ending June 21st. 

Saturday, June 27, 2020

Why People Have Always Held Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

The current phase of the gold bull market, which started last year, is – we believe – the third and final wave of the secular bull run tracking back to 2001.

It's going to create a tidal bore of immense size and power. A wave that those who hold the metal (and silver) can ride as insurance against state-sponsored value-destruction of a country's currency, and as real money that cannot and has not ever gone to zero in recorded history.

It could last 3 or 4 years, until the end of this decade... or beyond.

Saturday, June 27, 2020

Crude Oil Price Meets Key Resistance / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Crude oil moved above the previous highs and at the moment of writing these words, it’s testing the upper border of the March price gap. And given the fundamental news that are reaching (and likely to reach) the market – the increasing Covid-19 cases in the U.S. and globally – it seems that black gold might not have enough strength to keep pushing higher.

Thursday, June 25, 2020

INTEL x86 Chip Giant Stock Targets Artificial Intelligence and Quantum Computing for 2020's Growth / Companies / INTEL

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This analysis will now seek to update potential buying levels for AI stocks during Q2 of where stocks could trade down to in terms of technical support levels during the anticipated general stock market correction of about 15% that should be imminent.

Top 5 AI Stocks are all primary, the ordering of which is arbitrary for instance of the 3 Google, Amazon and Microsoft it's a toss up of which comes first. For instance If I was compiling the list today then I would likely put Amazon at No1 ahead of Google. So keep in mind that the rankings are more in terms of primary, Secondary and Tertiary rather than their number order.

Thursday, June 25, 2020

Gold’s Long-term Turning Point is Here / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Historical precedents are in many a technician's toolbox – and it's a tool they reach for with success repeatedly. Does the yellow metal offer any interesting parallels?

Gold had declined and it recovered, but the above simply prolongs the 2008-2020 analogy; it doesn’t invalidate it. Today, gold is attempting to break above the previous highs, but it’s not being successful in that.

Thursday, June 25, 2020

Hainan’s ASEAN Future and Dark Clouds Over Hong Kong / Economics / Asian Economies

By: Dan_Steinbock

The Hainan Free Trade Port plan is aligned with China’s new Silk Road initiatives, the Greater Bay Area plan and deeper ties with Southeast Asia. Hong Kong’s real threats are closer and farther.

On June 1, the Chinese government published its Hainan masterplan. It seeks to transform the southernmost province, separated from Guangdong’s Peninsula by the Qiongzhou Strait, into a Free Trade Port (FTP). The plan will turn China’s largest and most populous island to its biggest special economic zone (SEZ).

The initiative stems from the early days of Chinese economic reforms. Following the first special economic zones in Guangdong and the opening of further 14 coastal megacities to overseas investment, the government disclosed its plan to transform Hainan into China’s largest SEZ in 1988.

Thursday, June 25, 2020

Don’t Expect an Uneventful Summer for Gold & Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

Bullion premiums have been drifting lower in recent weeks after spiking earlier this spring. That in part reflects a waning of fear among investors… and a hope for markets and the economy returning to normal as we head into the summer.

But make no mistake, these are NOT normal times.

Not with some parts of the economy still locked down. Not with the Federal Reserve embarked on an unlimited Quantitative Easing program that will dwarf all others that came before it. And not with the fabric of American society being ripped apart by radicals who are bent on erasing history and fomenting a race war.

Wednesday, June 24, 2020

Silver Price Trend Analysis / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Long-term Trend Analysis

Silver faces very heavy overhead resistance from $18 all the way to $21 which means that it is going to be tough going and take significant effort for Silver to reach let alone breach $21. Whilst there is strong support at $16 and $14.5 (ignoring the crash low of $11.64).

Wednesday, June 24, 2020

A Stealth Stocks Double Dip or Bear Market Has Started / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The stock has gone through many cycles since the 2000 tech bubble. The tech bubble was the last significant time the stock market’s popularity among individuals piqued their interest in such a huge way similar to what we see now in the markets.

Market legend Jeremy Grantham recently talked on CNBC about the price action in the markets is the “Real McCoy” of bubbles. We will get back to his insight later in this article, but let’s get into some technical analysis that helps us see when and where the market bubble could burst.  When it does, it’s going to seriously hurt all the newly unemployed and sports betting traders who don’t know better yet how the markets move.

The stock market and how it moves is always evolving. Since 2008 when the FED stepped into the bailout America, which manipulated the financial system, the markets have been riddled with new policies by presidents and the Fed.

Wednesday, June 24, 2020

Trillion-dollar US infrastructure plan will draw in plenty of metal / Commodities / Infrastructure

By: Richard_Mills

Donald Trump appears to have torn a page from Ahead of the Herd’s manual for recharging the US economy. 

In an earlier article we said what the global economy really needs, in this low-growth, spending-stalled environment brought about by the pandemic, is a push - something big that will attract huge amounts of investment, and workers. As we have suggested, this could be a massive infrastructure spending program, on the scale of President Roosevelt’s “New Deal”.

Not coincidentally - we like to think Trump reads AOTH - the administration is said to be preparing a nearly $1 trillion infrastructure proposal – some of the dollars are geared toward 5G/ Broadband - as a way of spurring the world’s largest economy back to life. US GDP growth fell 5% in the first quarter and when second-quarter economic output figures are released, they will be far worse, likely double-digit.  

Fortune Magazine reported A preliminary version being prepared by the Department of Transportation would reserve most of the money for traditional infrastructure work, like roads and bridges, but would also set aside funds for 5G wireless infrastructure and rural broadband, the people said...

Wednesday, June 24, 2020

WARNING: The U.S. Banking System ISN’T as Strong as Advertised / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2020

By: MoneyMetals

Despite a year of tumult on Wall Street and Main Street, the banking system seems to be holding up remarkably well… for now.

Whereas previous financial crises were marked by a surge in bank failures, hardly any have gone under so far in 2020. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) reports that only 1% of FDIC-insured banks are on the “problem list” for financial weakness.

"Banks are safe," according to FDIC chair Jelena McWilliams. "There are no concerns for depositors."

No concerns? We beg to differ.

Wednesday, June 24, 2020

All That Glitters When the World Jitters is Probably Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The economic pressures and concerns within the global markets have not abated just because the US Fed has ramped up the printing presses. Inversely, the stock market price levels may be elevated based on a false expectation of a quick recovery and of future expectations that may be very unrealistic.

In terms of technical analysis, Gold has set up a very interesting sideways basing pattern after recently breaking above a major resistance channel near $1720.  Our research team believes the recent base in Gold, near $1720 to $1740 is setting up just like the 2005 to 2007 peak in the US stock markets – just before the Credit Crisis hit in 2008.  We believe the similarities of the current and past events, in price and in technical/fundamental data, are strangely similar.

Tuesday, June 23, 2020

Making Sense of Crude Oil Price Narrow Trading Range / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

We previously wrote that while it was tempting to bet on crude oil’s prices due to their weakness, it was not a good idea from the risk to reward point of view, as black gold didn’t invalidate the breakout above the early-March high. And it was definitely a good idea not to enter a short position then either – crude oil moved higher since that time.