Friday, November 13, 2015

The U.S. Shadow Interest Rate Casts Gloom / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Peter_Schiff

Nearly 92% of economists surveyed this week by the Wall Street Journal expect that our eight-year experiment with unprecedented monetary easing from the Federal Reserve will come to an end at the next Fed meeting in December. Since we have had the monetary wind at our back for so many years, at least a few have begun to question our ability to make economic and financial gains against actual headwinds. But in reality, the tightening cycle that the forecasters are waiting for actually started last year. Sadly, the markets and the economy are already showing an inability to handle it.

Friday, November 13, 2015

The “Bloodbath” in Canada Is Far From Over / Commodities / Canada

By: Casey_Research

By Justin Spittler

The oil price crash continues to claim victims…and many of them are in Canada.

The price of oil hovered around $100 for most of last summer. Today, it’s trading for less than $45.

Weak oil prices have pummeled huge oil companies. The SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP), which tracks the performance of major U.S. oil producers, has declined 36% over the past year. The Market Vectors Oil Services ETF (OIH), which tracks U.S. oil services companies, has declined 30% since last November.

Friday, November 13, 2015

Russia Sees Gold Reserves As “Additional Financial Cushion” In Face Of “External Uncertainties” / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015

By: GoldCore

- Gold and FX reserves are “additional financial cushion” for state in face of “external uncertainties”
– Russia bought another 77 tonnes of gold in Q3
– Ruble volatility does not create risks for financial stability in Russia
– Russia intends building fx and gold reserves to $500 billion in coming years
– Gold is a “100% guarantee from legal and political risks”

Friday, November 13, 2015

Why Black Friday Needs to be a National Holiday / Politics / Shopping

By: Walter_Brasch

At one time, people placed carved pumpkins with a candle inside on their front porches to announce the beginning of the Halloween season.

And then it became a contest. First, best Halloween pumpkin. And then who could decorate their trees and hedges with the best fake cobwebs, followed by fake witches in trees.

Friday, November 13, 2015

Africa Population Explosion - Why Europe's Migrant Crisis is Going to Get A Lot Worse - Video / Politics / Africa

By: Nadeem_Walayat

What's lost in the midst of this year’s migration crisis of as many as 1 million migrants heading for Europe's shores, near five times the number for 2014, is the consequences of the REAL MEGA-TREND, that is not just of the war in Syria but the fact that Africa (both North and South) is undergoing a population explosion, that is literally manifesting in an exponential trend, one of MORE than doubling of Africa's population every 40 years that looks set to make today's migrant crisis look like a picnic when compared against the several of millions per year that will be arriving on Europe’s borders within a few short years as the global population graph based on UN data illustrates.

Friday, November 13, 2015

Stock Market Make or Break, Is the US Heading Towards Recession? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Puru_Saxena

The global economy is slowing down rapidly and it is conceivable that the developed world may face a recession next year. Already, the Japanese economy is contracting and even Europe is barely growing.  Across the pond, the US is still muddling through but the leading economic indicators and all the major Fed regional activity surveys (Figure 1) are suggesting economic weakness ahead. 

Friday, November 13, 2015

Inspiration from the World of Sports for Sucessful Investing / Stock-Markets / Investing 2015

By: John_Mauldin

One of the most successful investors in the world is Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital Management. One of the things I look forward to every quarter is the letter he writes to his clients – it goes right to the top of my reading list. Not only is it always full of generally brilliant investment counsel, Howard is also a really great writer. He has an easy style that pulls you through his letter effortlessly.

I have never sent his letter to you as an Outside the Box, as the copies I get are clearly watermarked and copyrighted. So I was surprised and delighted to learn that the letter is free when I listened to a speech by Howard in which he encouraged everyone to get it. Unlike another hundred-billion-dollar hedge fund company that shall go unnamed, Oaktree evidently thinks that brilliance should be shared.

Friday, November 13, 2015

US Stock Market: Anatomy of a Correction / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Gary_Tanashian

Over the last week we (NFTRH) have used market sentiment indicators and index charts to gauge the prospects of finding a high on the post-September relief ‘bounce’ rally.

During August and September market sentiment had become brutally over bearish and this was very dangerous from the bears’ perspective.  We set upside bounce targets for the SPX at 2020, 2040, 2060 and 2100.  The first three were resistance levels (broken support) and the last was the general measurement of the ‘W’ bottom that formed in August and September.  With the extremes in bearish sentiment, it was not so surprising that SPX climbed all the way to just above 2100.

Friday, November 13, 2015

Deflation and the Devaluation Derby - A Closer Look at All Those New U.S. Jobs / Economics / Deflation

By: EWI

U.S. labor force participation rate is at its lowest level in 38 years

Editor's note: You'll find a text version of the story below the video.

I was in the café of a bookstore recently and overheard a young man tell his friend, "It's hard to get a job these days, even with a degree."

Friday, November 13, 2015

Crude Oil and Gold Daily Cycles / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Gary_Savage

Oil has confirmed a failed daily cycle. That's not good news and probably means the 3 year cycle low will now get stretched out to early spring.

Thursday, November 12, 2015

Another Day Older and Deeper in Debt / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2015

By: DeviantInvestor

Debt overwhelms most people in debt based fiat currency economies (US, UK, Europe, and others).  Credit cards, auto loans, student loans, mortgages, and more …

Debt overwhelms most governments in debt based fiat currency economies.  They are in debt because governments spend more than their revenues, which is a truly simple concept.  However, don’t expect fiscal sanity to return anytime soon.

Thursday, November 12, 2015

Copper Monthly, Aussie Jobs Soar, but Capex far from Done / Commodities / Copper

By: Ashraf_Laidi

It's not the first time an Australian jobs report shows employment growth rise five times more than expected. Whether it will be revised downwards or not, it is undoubtedly reflecting partial strength in the nation's labour market. Australia added a net 58.8K jobs in September; over four times expectations, the highest increase in 3 ½ years and the 3rd biggest jump over the last 15 years. Remarkably, 40K of the 58.8K increase emerged from full time jobs, while only 18.6K was from part time employment. The 231.7K increase jobs in the first 10 months of the year showed the its biggest annual gain since 2010.

Thursday, November 12, 2015

Stock Market Breakdown / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning!

My start this morning was delayed due to a late work night and early morning dentist’s appointment. I have more activities planned for the day, so my reportage may be spotty.

However, there is good news for our bearish positions this morning. SPX broke down as anticipated with a 2.5 point gap which suggests that selling pressure overwhelmed the always bullish HFTs this morning.

Thursday, November 12, 2015

USD, XEU, CRB, DBC, Oil, Copper and Gold Chartology of Deflation / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Rambus_Chartology

Tonight I would like to update some of the charts on the possible inflection point we looked at about three weeks or so ago. That possible inflection point is still gaining momentum to the downside as the deflationary environment still looks good to go. No market goes straight up or down so one needs to expect some turbulence along the way.

In order for the deflationary theme to play out we will need to see a strong US dollar which will affect the commodities complex and other important currencies of the world. Below is a closeup view for the US dollar that now shows the bullish falling wedge in breakout mode with one backtest to the top rail so far.

Thursday, November 12, 2015

UK BrExit Referendum as European Union Faces Migration Catastrophe / Politics / UK EU Referendum

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This week David Cameron kick started his negotiations with the European Union to head off the risk of a Referendum vote to leave the European Union due to be held some time during 2017. The latest opinion polls put the LEAVE camp in the minority on 39%, however faced with continuing out of control immigration could by referendum day bring the vote closer to a 50/50 knife edge result.

By most accounts David Cameron's demands in his letter to to Donald Tusk (President of the European Council) are pretty weak, most of which are designed to be achieved in what amounts to a pantomime act for an gullible electorate to swallow.

Thursday, November 12, 2015

Stock Market Very Negative Close / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Harry_Boxer

The stock market indices had a volatile session today. They popped at the opening, 3-wave, corrective pullback ensued, then they had a very strong rally midday that led to the session highs just under 4680 Nasdaq 100, and 2987 S&P 500. They came down in a 3-wave decline near the close, and then rolled over into the close to cement the negative close for the day.

Thursday, November 12, 2015

Global Stocks Bull Market Breadth / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Donald_W_Dony

Strong bull markets normally have a broad participation or breadth base. When that breadth starts to narrow, the short-term outlook for a continuation of the upward trend comes into question.

Thursday, November 12, 2015

Stock Market Trying To Unwind.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Jack_Steiman

would allow for another move higher once the stochastic's and MACD have moved low enough. Nothing impulsive as the market sells, which is key to understanding what type of selling is taking place. Whether it's truly bearish selling or the type of selling that will allow for the markets to try higher once again in time. So far the bulls have to like the process, but it shouldn't be over quite yet. While we can still rally some, the process of moving lower should still have some decent energy left.

Wednesday, November 11, 2015

Israel Detaining and Imprisoning Palestinian Children for Political Reasons / Politics / Israel

By: Stephen_Lendman

Israel doesn’t just violate inviolable international laws. It smashes, tramples on and ignores them, writing its own rules, setting its own standards, doing whatever it pleases, consistently justifying the unjustifiable - longstanding rogue state practice.

It treats children like adults, already abducting, detaining and imprisoning them for political reasons.

America and Israel are the only two nations incarcerating young children for life without parole (LWOP). It’s a 1989 Convention on the Rights of the Child (CRC) signatory, mandating protection for their rights, safety and welfare - “without discrimination of any kind,” regardless of “race, colour, sex, language, religion, political or other opinion, national, ethnic or social origin, property, disability, birth or other status," including their "right to life…survival (and) development.”

Wednesday, November 11, 2015

The US Dollar Rally Could Trigger a $9 Trillion Debt Implosion / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Graham_Summers

The US Dollar rally, combined with the ECB’s policies and the Fed’s hint at raising rates in December, is at risk of blowing up a $9 trillion carry trade.

When the Fed cut interest rates to zero in 2008, it flooded the system with US Dollars. The US Dollar is the reserve currency of the world. NO matter what country you’re in (with few exceptions) you can borrow in US Dollars.

And if you can borrow in US Dollars at 0.25%… and put that money into anything yielding more… you could make a killing.