Monday, November 21, 2016
Elites Are an Endangered Species / Politics / Social Issues
By: John_Mauldin
I’m glad to read that the halls of power in Europe are in an uproar over our election.
Their concern is not that Trump is now president. They are worried that elites everywhere—the people who “know” how the world should be run and expect the “little people” to stay in line—are an endangered species.
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Monday, November 21, 2016
The Trump Trade War Already Started / Politics / Protectionism
By: John_Mauldin
BY PATRICK WATSON : After the initial shock-and-awe reaction to the surprise Trump victory, the markets rejoiced last week… a lot.
“The Dow closed at an all-time high on Thursday, while the S&P and the Nasdaq were flirting with their record highs entering Friday,” reported CNBC.
Others were less thrilled with the election result. Some experts claimed Trump’s plans to raise tariffs on China, withdraw from NAFTA, and otherwise stop globalization in its tracks would surely set off a trade war and hurt the markets.
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Monday, November 21, 2016
Obstacles to Trump’s Economic Growth Plans / Economics / US Economy
By: Raul_I_Meijer
For the second time in a few weeks (see ‘End of Growth’ Sparks Wide Discontent), former British diplomat Alastair Crooke quotes me extensively, and I return the favor. Crooke here attempts to list -some of- the difficulties Donald Trump will face in executing the -economic- measures he promised to take in his campaign. Crooke argues that, as I’ve indicated repeatedly, for instance in America is The Poisoned Chalice, the financial crisis that never ended may be one of his biggest problems.
Here, again, is Alastair Crooke:
We are plainly at a pivotal moment. President-Elect Trump wants to make dramatic changes in his nation’s course. His battle cry of wanting to make “America Great Again” evokes – and almost certainly is intended to evoke – the epic American economic expansions of the Nineteenth and Twentieth centuries.
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Monday, November 21, 2016
Trump Negotiating NAFTA's Future, Mexico Economic Uncertainty / Politics / US Politics
By: STRATFOR
In Mexico, uncertainty abounds over U.S. President-elect Donald Trump and, in particular, his promises to change NAFTA. Although the next president will have the power to unilaterally pull out of the trade bloc, as he has threatened to do, congressional opposition and legal challenges from private companies may discourage him from doing so. Aside from the political and legal battles that would doubtless ensue, withdrawing from the North American Free Trade Agreement would be economically painful, disrupting business continuity for companies around the world — including those in the United States. Still, Trump has a few options with regard to NAFTA. Instead of suddenly withdrawing from the deal, he could try to renegotiate certain aspects of it. He may even decide to leave NAFTA alone (although that seems unlikely given the emphasis he placed on the agreement during his campaign). Regardless of which path he takes, Trump will not be acting in a vacuum. His decision will likely depend on the cooperation of the U.S. Congress and of the trade agreement's other signatories, Canada and Mexico.
Monday, November 21, 2016
Stocks Remain Close To All-Time Highs - Will The Uptrend Continue? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Paul_Rejczak
Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,240, and profit target at 2,060, S&P 500 index).
Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook remains neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral
Monday, November 21, 2016
All Cash ISA Savings Interest Rates Plunge Below 1.00% / Personal_Finance / ISA's
By: MoneyFacts
Moneyfacts UK Savings Trends Treasury Report data, yet to be published, highlights that all ISA averages have fallen below the 1.00% barrier for the first time on Moneyfacts records.
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Monday, November 21, 2016
UK Autumn Statement: The Longest Tax Freeze in History Must be Turned into a Cut / Politics / UK Tax & Budget
By: Submissions
Pre-Autumn Statement releases and announcement rumours of a continuing freeze in fuel duty till April 2018 show that the Chancellor of the Exchequer in his first ‘Mini-Budget’ is undeniably listening to FairFuelUK’s overwhelming economic evidence that lower prices at the pumps are hugely beneficial to the economy.However, following the Autumn Statement UK petrol drivers will remain the 5th most fuel taxed in the world with diesel drivers being punished more than all other countries in 1st position. UK drivers will still pay £33bn in fuel taxes each year to the Treasury for little investment return into roads infrastructure.
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Monday, November 21, 2016
This Past Week in Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: The_Gold_Report
Technical analyst Jack Chan charts the latest movements in the gold and silver markets, and shows why investors can expect lower prices overall.
Monday, November 21, 2016
Energy Sector Cycle Turns Up / Commodities / Energy Resources
By: The_Energy_Report
Technical analyst Jack Chan charts a new buy signal in the energy sector.
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Monday, November 21, 2016
Silver Is Not Real Money / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Kelsey_Williams
Is silver real money? I don’t think so. But I know that my proclamation will likely draw vociferous contradictions from others who consider themselves “hard-money advocates”.
That’s okay. Let’s look at the facts. And in order to be consistent with the introduction of my companion article GOLD IS REAL MONEY, let’s start similarly here. In this case though, I will list what silver is rather than what it is not. Silver is:
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Monday, November 21, 2016
An Honest Look at Gold Chartology / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Rambus_Chartology
For the last two weeks, since the US elections, we’ve been discussing the possibility of strong inflection points building out on many different areas of the markets. These are areas where the markets can turn on a dime leaving those folks looking one way while the markets go the opposite way. Important inflection points are more of a price thing than a time thing. An inflection point can last days or weeks before they finally resolve themselves.
Lets start by looking at the US dollar, as it plays such a key role in so many markets. Below is a three year daily chart which shows its major impulse leg up out of the mid 2014 low, and topped out in the spring of 2015. For just under two years the US dollar has been chopping out a sideways trading range, rectangle consolidation pattern, and closed above the top rail this week. The breakout is not actually confirmed yet as the price action would have to close above the 103 area and then a backtest to the top rail around 100 would have to hold. For the time being, we have to give the benefit of a doubt, to the US dollar bulls until proven otherwise.
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Monday, November 21, 2016
Stock Market Swift Shift From Safety to Risk / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Donald_W_Dony
Part of the U.S. president-elect's narrative has been on invigorating the economy. Massive spending on upgrades in schools, highways, hospitals and infrastructure have all been mentioned.
The market, in response to the proposed spending, quickly shifted from safety assets to risk and growth.
Four sectors, in particular, saw solid selling pressure over the last 30 days (Chart 1).
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Monday, November 21, 2016
Donald Trump Grey Champion Assumes Command of America's Fourth Turning Crisis - Part 2 / Politics / US Politics
By: James_Quinn
In Part One of this article I discussed the arrival of Grey Champions in previous Fourth Turnings; their attributes, deficiencies, and leadership skills; and why Donald Trump is the Grey Champion of this Fourth Turning - whether you like it or not. Now I will try to make sense of what could happen next.
Read full article... Read full article..."Our movement is about replacing a failed and corrupt political establishment with a new government controlled by you, the American people. The establishment has trillions of dollars at stake in this election. For those who control the levers of power in Washington and for the global special interests, they partner with these people that don't have your good in mind. The political establishment that is trying to stop us is the same group responsible for our disastrous trade deals, massive illegal immigration and economic and foreign policies that have bled our country dry.
Monday, November 21, 2016
Stock Market Short Term Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: The long-term trend is up but weakening. Potential final phase of bull market.
SPX Intermediate trend: SPX may be entering the final intermediate phase of the uptrend which started at 1810.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily-basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
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Sunday, November 20, 2016
What Happens When the Fake Stock Market Driven By Fake Data Finally Adjusts to Economic Realities? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Graham_Summers
While we’re on the topic of fake news… how about we assess the fake economy of the last eight years?
President Obama at one point claimed that those who questioned the strength of the recovery were “peddling fiction.”
It’s an interesting claim given the entire recovery, at least post 2010, has been built on fake economic data to perpetuate a fake narrative of growth.
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Sunday, November 20, 2016
Trump Inauguration Day Protests Planned / Politics / US Politics
By: Stephen_Lendman
Protesting Trump’s inauguration misses the point. I’ve explained many times. America’s criminal class is bipartisan, democracy pure fantasy.
Deep state duopoly power runs things - one-party state governance with two right wings, independents entirely shut out. Media scoundrels are press agents for wealth, power and privilege exclusively.
Election-rigging made Trump president. Power brokers decided Hillary was too scandal-ridden to serve effectively. Her deplorable public record defeated her.
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Sunday, November 20, 2016
Stock Market Warning Signs, Gold Bounce Due / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Brad_Gudgeon
All year, I have been looking for an important bottom in the stock market around the end of November. The 40 week cycle low is due to give us at least an 11% shellacking and we have not seen one yet. I believe November 29th to December 5th may be the dates that will give us that drop.
Short term we are also due for a pullback, probably into November 21-22 of about 1 ½ to 2% off the top on Friday. Friday posted an evening star reversal sign.
Gold made an irregular bottom on Friday, with huge positive divergences. GDX did not make a new bottom, also, creating an inter market bullish divergence. We may see a huge spike up Monday and Tuesday, in the precious metals and GDX, as the stock market falls.
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Sunday, November 20, 2016
The Real Barrier To Trump's Economic Policies! / Economics / US Economy
By: Gordon_T_Long
Gordon T Long, Co-Founder of MATASII.com sat down with Mish Shedlock to get his views on what the new Trump Administration and its "Trumponomics" policies will mean to the markets and investment strategies in 2017.
Here are a few of Mish's current views on some of the Key Economic Platforms of "Trumponomics":
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Sunday, November 20, 2016
Grey Champion Assumes Command of America's Fourth Turning Crisis - Part 1 / Politics / US Politics
By: James_Quinn
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Sunday, November 20, 2016
Gold's 2016 Bull Market Moving Off Course / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
While we expected additional weakness in Gold and gold stocks (weeks ago) we did not quite expect the kind of selling the sector experienced in the wake of Donald Trump's election victory. The market reacted by sending bond yields dramatically higher which resulted in stronger real interest rates, which is fundamentally negative for precious metals. This has created significant technical damage in the sector and has potentially thrown the 2016 bull off course.