Tuesday, February 01, 2022
Unloved Biotech Stocks Sector / Companies / BioTech
By: Nadeem_Walayat
And the same it true for the unloved Biotech sector, where here's a taste of what to expect when I take a detail look at the biotech stocks. It's definitely going to take something special to buck the sector downtrend!
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Tuesday, February 01, 2022
The Quantum Entangled Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The FAANG stocks are entangled with one another, which is why the likes of Amazon is still holding up there with the likes of Apple and Microsoft. and why we don't tend to get many opportunities to accumulate in the FAANG stocks at deep discounts because to get an opportunity means we are going to have to wait for an opportunity in ALL of the FAANG+ stocks to materialise.
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Tuesday, February 01, 2022
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: It's Time To Invest Based Upon Corporae Earnings / Companies / Stock Market 2022
By: Avi_Gilburt
We have all heard the phrase “earnings are the mother’s milk of stocks.” I believe the phrase was coined by Larry Kudlow. In fact, I have some commenters to my articles that claim that earnings are the only thing one needs to know about investing in the stock market.
But, is it true?
Bob Prechter has done some research into this topic, and has outlined some very interesting market history that flies in the face of the common perception regarding earnings: The Myth of Company Earnings and Stock Price
Are stocks driven by corporate earnings? In June 1991, The Wall Street Journal reported on a study by Goldman Sachs’ Barrie Wigmore, who found that “only 35% of stock price growth [in the 1980s] can be attributed to earnings and interest rates.” Wigmore concludes that all the rest is due simply to changing social attitudes toward holding stocks. Says the Journal, “[This] may have just blown a hole through this most cherished of Wall Street convictions.”
What about simply the trend of earnings versus the stock market? Well, since 1932, corporate profits have been down in 19 years. The Dow rose in 14 of those years. In 1973-74, the Dow fell 46% while earnings rose 47%. 12-month earnings peaked at the bear market low. Earnings do not drive stocks.
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Sunday, January 30, 2022
STOCK MARKET CRASH INDICATOR / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash
By: Nadeem_Walayat
STOCK MARKET CRASH INDICATOR
It looks like my last article freighted a lot of patrons, which was not my intention for I already flagged that the risks of a market panic event have been increasingly long before the neural net signaled a 100%+ reading. It is what it is, an independant indicator which increases the probability for lower prices going forward hence I revised my stock market expectations lower as illustrate by the updated stock market trend forecast graph.
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Sunday, January 30, 2022
Warren Buffetts $130 billion 2022 Investing Master Plan / Stock-Markets / Investing 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway is sat on $130 billion of cash. Why? Waiting for the inevitable panic event? Then why didn't Berkshire Hathaway buy in March 2020?
No, Warren Buffett master plans is this -
When the markets starts to crash / roll over into a bear market the naked longs facing forced sales will seek out investors to buy them out of their positions else the the markets would face a cascade of forced panic selling and where would they look for that buyer of last resort who has advertised to all well in advance that they have a mountain of cash? Warren Buffett who will likely be able to pick up positions in his target stocks at deep discounts to market prices.
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Sunday, January 30, 2022
Fed Comments Help To Settle Global Stock Market Expectations / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The recent Fed comments should have helped settle the global market expectations related to if and when the Fed will start raising rates and/or taking further steps to curb inflation trends. Additionally, the Fed has been telegraphing its intentions very clearly over the past few months, providing ample time for traders and investors to alter their approach to pending monetary tightening actions. Read the full Fed Statement here.
In my opinion, foreign markets are more likely to see increased risks and declining price trends for two reasons. First, at-risk nations/borrowers struggle to reduce debt levels. Second, foreign market traders/investors struggle to adapt to the transition away from speculative “growth” trends. I think the US Dollar may continue to show strength over the next 4+ months as the foreign traders pile into US economic strength while the Fed initiates their tightening actions. So it makes sense to me that global markets would recoil from Fed tightening while debt-heavy corporations/nations seek relief from rising debt obligations.
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Sunday, January 30, 2022
Gold Price in 2022 Between Inflationary Rock and Hard Fed Hard Place / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Gold’s fate in 2021 will be determined mainly by inflation and the Fed’s reaction to it.In the epic struggle between chaos and order, chaos has an easier task, as there is usually only one proper method to do a job – the job that you can screw up in many ways. Thus, although economists see a strong economic expansion with cooling prices and normalization in monetary policies in 2022, many things could go wrong. The Omicron strain of coronavirus or its new variants could become more contagious and deadly, pushing the world into the Great Lockdown again. The real estate crisis in China could lead the country into recession, with serious economic consequences for the global economy. Oh, by the way, we could see an escalation between China and Taiwan, or between China and the US, especially after the recent test of hypersonic missiles by the former country.
Having said that, I believe that the major forces affecting the gold market in 2022 will be – similarly to last year’s – inflation and the Fed’s response to it. Considering things in isolation, high inflation should be supportive of gold prices. The problem here is that gold prefers high and rising inflation. Although the inflation rate should continue its upward move for a while, it’s likely to peak this year.
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Sunday, January 30, 2022
Should Investors Fear Fed Interest Rate Hikes? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: MoneyMetals
The prospect of Federal Reserve rate hikes continues to rattle Wall Street and cloud the outlook for precious metals.
On Wednesday, the central bank strongly signaled it will raise its benchmark Fed funds rate for the first time in three years – likely at its March policy meeting.
Policymakers noted that inflation is running “well above” target and also claimed a “strong labor market” justifies a degree of monetary tightening.
"There's quite a bit of room to raise interests without threatening the labor market,” Fed chairman Jerome Powell said, adding, “wages are moving up at the highest pace they have in decades."
Sunday, January 30, 2022
Gold Plunged but Didn’t Knuckle Under to the Hawkish Fed / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The FOMC set the stage for a March interest rate hike, which was an aggressive signal. Gold got it and fell – but hasn't capitulated yet.The Battlecruiser Hawk is moving full steam ahead! The FOMC issued yesterday (January 26, 2022) its newest statement on monetary policy in which it strengthened its hawkish stance. First of all, the Fed admitted that it would start hiking interest rates “soon”:
With inflation well above 2 percent and a strong labor market, the Committee expects it will soon be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate.
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Saturday, January 29, 2022
FED TAPER CON TRICK, Recession 2022 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Did you buy the panic? Or were you scared shitless by the clueless MSM and barely out of puberty youtube clowns into a state of paralysis, missed buying Microsoft for $282, or AMD for $101, Nvidia $226, even Google for $2512? My prospective buying levels mailed to patrons before last Monday's open...
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Saturday, January 29, 2022
M&As: Beware of This Major Sign of a Stock Market Top / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: EWI
Here's what often precedes "prolonged and devastating bear markets"
Inside the three publications that comprise Elliott Wave International's flagship Financial Forecast Service, Elliott Wave International recently documented the many expressions of "financial optimism." Things like crypto mania. Or meme stocks. Or just buying any stocks, all stocks, no matter if the companies that issued them are making money, losing it, or have yet to turn a profit.
And it's more than just the individual investors who are caught up in it. Among the other behaviors this widespread financial optimism leads to are corporate mergers and acquisitions.
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Saturday, January 29, 2022
STOCK MARKET WARNING ARK FUNDS GROWTH STOCKS 90% CRASH! / Companies / Tech Stocks
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The great valuation reset that I have been warning of for a good 6 months is taking place with a vengeance! As it's not a question of everyone waiting for the Fed act to raise rates because the market is already raising rates anyway and at their sharpest pace in over a year which punishes the high PE garbage growth stocks whilst rewarding low PE strong cash flow stocks.
Look at ARK GARBAGE STOCKS - NO EARNINGS, NO SALES, JUST SOME GARBAGE MANTRA of "DESRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY" THAT SPEWS OUT of CATHY WOOD from time to time! The only thing getting disrupted are the portfolios of all the poor souls who fell for her snake oil sales pitch!
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Saturday, January 29, 2022
9 Year Old Bird of Paradise Plant / Personal_Finance / Gardening
By: Anika_Walayat
HAPPY BIRTHDAY! Our Flowering Bird of Paradise plant is 9 years old and so it is Anika's 14th Birthday who has cared for the plant for 9 years as this video illustrates.
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Friday, January 28, 2022
BREWING FINANCIAL CRISIS 2.0 Suggests RECESSION 2022 / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My last article featured an Inflationary indicator pointing to a recession 2022. That latest Inflation data out of the US (6.8%) reinforces what this indicator suggests i.e. US CP LIE inflation is now at it's highest since the early 1980's!.
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Friday, January 28, 2022
Financial Stocks Sector ETF XLF $37.50 Continues To Present Opportunities / Companies / Banking Stocks
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Recent volatility in the US markets ahead of the Fed comments/actions have prompted a relatively big pullback in almost every sector. Many traders are concerned the Fed may take immediate action to raise rates. Yet, a small portion of traders believes the Fed may be trapped in a position to act more conservatively in addressing inflation going forward. I think the Fed will continue to talk firmly about potentially raising rates. The Fed is more interested in decreasing the assets on their balance sheet before they risk doing anything to disrupt support for the global markets.
Suppose my analysis of the Fed predicament is correct. In that case, the recent collapse of the US markets represents a fear-based emotional selloff of many sectors that may still represent a strong opportunity for a recovery rally in 2022. One of those sectors is the Financial sector – particularly XLF.
I wrote about this on January 7, 2022, in this article: FINANCIAL SECTOR STARTS TO RALLY TOWARDS THE $43.60 UPSIDE TARGET
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Friday, January 28, 2022
Stock Market Rushing Headlong / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
Glass half full call on S&P 500 yesterday was vindicated – this yet another reversal has the power to go on, and credit markets appear sniffing out the upcoming reprieve. While rates have justifiably risen, they have done so quite fast in Jan – time to calm down and reprice the excessively hawkish Fed fears. Even if it was just energy and financials that rose yesterday, the table is set for gains across many assets – just check the progress from yesterday‘s already optimistic upturn, or the already fine early view of yesterday‘s market internals.
VIX is calming down, Fed is unlikely to rock the boat too much – such were my yesterday‘s thoughts about:
(…) seeing a rebound on Wednesday‘s FOMC (I‘m leaning towards its message being positively received, and no rate hike now as that‘s apart from the Eastern Europe situation the other fear around).
The sizable open profits – whether in S&P 500 or crude oil – can keep on growing while gold slowly approaches $1,870 again (look for a good day today), and copper stabilizes above $4.50 to keep pushing higher even if not yet outperforming other commodities. More dry firepowder and fresh profits ahead anywhere I look – even cryptos are to enjoy the unfolding risk-on upswing.
Friday, January 28, 2022
The right way to play Climate Change Investing (not green energy stocks) / Companies / Climate Change
By: Submissions
By Justin Spittler : The climate change money continues to pour in…
Two weeks ago California Governor Gavin Newsom proposed a $37 billion budget to fight climate change.
The six-year plan is mostly focused on green transportation and cleaner energy.
And that’s just the latest news…
In November, Reuters reported that “banks, insurers, and investors with $130 trillion at their disposal pledged to put combating climate change at the center of their work.”
$130 trillion!
Thursday, January 27, 2022
Why Most Investors LOST Money by Investing in ARK FUNDS / Companies / Investment Funds
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Understand this, it is highly probable that 90% of RETAIL INVESTORs in ARK Funds have LOST MONEY!
LOOK at the volume on the ARKK chart and that tells you when the retail investors were FOMO-ing, then buying the DIPS in ARKK!
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Thursday, January 27, 2022
The “play-to-earn” trend taking the crypto world by storm / Currencies / cryptocurrency
By: Submissions
By Justin Spittler: Something incredible happened last year in the Philippines.
Everyday people were making up to $3,500/month… from playing a video game.
That might not sound like a lot of money to you and me. But you should understand something.
The typical Filipino makes around $878 per month.
And these people making thousands of dollars a month aren’t professional gamers. They’re not part of an esports team. And they don’t receive money from sponsors.
They’re simply playing Axie Infinity.
Wednesday, January 26, 2022
Quantum AI Stocks Investing Priority / Companies / Investing 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
From time to time I get asked by Patrons what stocks would I prioritise exposure to, so that there is no confusion my priority has stayed fairly constant for a good 5 years now as illustrated by the ordering of ny AI stocks portfolio where as far as I can recall Google has always remained primary, numero uno, and why through thick and thin, even if I thought armageddon was just around the corner, Google has remained a constant in my portfolio and represents the pinnacle of what one would deem to be a PERFECT STOCK. Google is PRIMARY, In fact one could just buy and hold Google and nothing else and likely beat the market!
Whilst all of the other stocks do jiggle around in their positions from time, however the primary AI stocks have remained fairly constant for some time. In fact digging into my article archives here is one of the earliest iterations of my AI stocks portfolio list dating back to October 2016 which has aged well noting that Apple had a stock split so that the un split price now would be about $700!
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