Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, November 15, 2016
Trump's Mandate to Yellen: Print More Money or You're Fired! / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Michael_Pento
What kind of President will Donald Trump be? Will he restore America to its former position of greatness, or end up being feckless like a long list of his predecessors? That is yet to be determined.
However, what is clear now is if Donald Trump wants to avoid starting his tenure with an economic crisis similar to that of Mr. Obama he will need to put a lid on long-term interest rates rather quickly. And in order to do that he will have to convince a supposedly politically-agnostic Fed Chair, Janet Yellen, to not only refrain from further interest rates hikes but also to launch another round of long-term Treasury debt purchases known as Quantitative Easing (QE).
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Monday, November 14, 2016
Bond Market Bull Over or The Start of The Final Blow Off Top? / Interest-Rates / Bond Bubble
By: Plunger
Over a Trillion dollars has been vaporized in the bond market in just one week. The phrase "blood bath" is an understatement as the widows and orphans have been routed. This isn't supposed to happen in the the bond market. So is the great 33 year bond bull finally over and the deluge that we knew would ultimately come upon us? Not so fast chipmunk, is my reply and this is why. All great bull markets go through three complete phases. Phase I is the accumulation or stealth phase, phase II is the mark-up phase which lasts the longest and phase III is the blow off or mania phase. The NASDAQ and the oil bull markets exhibit provide us clean examples of these three phases in their 10 year bull runs which ended in crashes. Phase III is characterized by violent and deep yet short term corrections which shakeout all but the strongest hands. That is what the government bond market is undergoing in this recent violent move. First let's review those two bull markets in the NASDAQ and oil.
Saturday, November 12, 2016
Did U.S. Treasury Bonds Just Get Stumped by Trump? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: EWI
The answer to where T-Bonds are headed is not in the news headlines about Trump. It's in the Elliott wave pattern
On November 9, the United States woke to the biggest political shock since Harry Truman defeated "shoe-in" Thomas E. Dewey in the 1948 U.S. presidential election.
For U.S. bond investors, the 2016 election has been head-spinning too.
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Thursday, November 10, 2016
And Of Course, No One is Talking About the US National Debt / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Rodney_Johnson
I’m beaten down.Worn out.
Punch drunk.
I’m not moonlighting as a cage fighter. I’m a registered voter in a swing state.
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Monday, November 07, 2016
Thanks to Obamacare, US Government Debt Is Worse Than You Think / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: John_Mauldin
You’re probably aware that the US budget deficit jumped to $590 billion for fiscal 2016. What you might not know is that US government debt rose by $1.4 trillion last fiscal year. That difference between the deficit and debt increases is a huge number.
What did we spend that additional $800 billion on?
My friends Dr. Lacy Hunt and Van Hoisington of Hoisington Asset Management can answer that question and more. Using current CBO projections and the trend in off-budget debt, Lacy and Van estimate that US government debt could grow by an additional $13 trillion in the next 10 years (by 2025). That would put total debt at $33 trillion and push to 150% debt-to-GDP.
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Thursday, October 27, 2016
The Next Big Shoe to Drop – Student Loans / Interest-Rates / Student Finances
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
More than 40 million young Americans carry federal and private student loan debt – amounting to over $1 trillion. Defaults are on the rise and the issue has grown to become a nasty wealth transfer mechanism, as well as sad example of the failure of finance in general.
This week, President Obama announced a new initiative framed as a way of addressing the issue. Sadly, it is far from the mark, and just one more indication that monetary masters are the real puppeteers.
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Tuesday, October 25, 2016
The Current Message of Yield Curves: Inflation or Deflation? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Gary_Tanashian
With the state of post-Op/Twist systemic dysfunction, there are no absolutes, but…
Generally, a rising yield curve (after years of Goldilocks and her favored declining curve) would signal changes in financial markets. But it is not as simple as stating ‘the curve is rising… it’s bearish!’ or ‘the curve is rising… it’s bullish!’. It is potentially both of those things and it will have different implications for different markets and asset classes.
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Tuesday, October 25, 2016
Broken Central Banks: 4 Quick Pix / Interest-Rates / Central Banks
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The Western central bank franchise system is totally broken, totally insolvent, and totally corrupt. It invites the Gold Standard return. The entire financial system is built upon a debt-based monetary system. The debt saturation process has run its full course. The central bank heads have been covering the sovereign debt for the last five years, having rendered their balance sheets as ruined. Debt is at obscene levels, like $19.7 trillion for the USGovt. No debt limits are in place anymore, a signal that most likely it has already defaulted. A hidden game is underway, with control lost to the creditors, even as they attempt to salvage their debt holdings. The major central banks continue to manage badly the great game, where money is fake phony and a farce. A titanic battle is underway, where the Eastern nations are discarding their USTreasury Bonds, and doing so in tremendous volume while they set up the many platforms and pieces to the Gold Standard.
Monday, October 24, 2016
Did a Secret Central Banking Cabal Just Turn AGAINST the US? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Graham_Summers
Quietly and with little if any notice, foreign Central Banks have begun DUMPING US Debt.
Take a look at this chart. Does this look like a bull market to you? Because to me it looks like it could be the beginning of a panic sale.
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Wednesday, October 19, 2016
The Fed Has Made Another Massive Policy Error / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: John_Mauldin
I would argue that the Great Recession was a result of a massive monetary policy error. The Fed kept rates too low for too long, which—when coupled with lax or no regulation in the mortgage markets—resulted in a housing bubble and a crash. This then bled over to global markets.
I believe we are again suffering the effects of a massive monetary policy error. The error has already been committed, but we have just begun to endure the consequences.
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Friday, October 14, 2016
US T-Bill Rejection At Ports In Progress / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Jim_Willie_CB
World trade has fallen for the second quarter in a row. The decade of stagnation of industrial production in the United States, Japan, and European Union can be blamed on financial engineering, housing bubbles, war, and recently on destructive monetary policy in QE bond purchase program. It is not stimulus, but rather a destroyer of capital. The West contains several nations with heavy industrial emphasis, hardly advanced economies anymore. They risk a fall into the Third World from a generation of outsourcing, asset bubbles, and financial fraud, as soon as the new currency regime is installed as part of the financial RESET.
Friday, October 14, 2016
Our Current Keynesian Nightmare / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Frank_Hollenbeck
It is not an understatement to say that the economic policy of the United States since 2008 has been purely Keynesian. Interest rates are near zero and the national debt stands at nearly $20 trillion. This is a direct result of applying the policy prescription recommended in Keynes’ General Theory. One day, his book will likely sit next to Karl Marx’s Communist Manifesto as works that generated dangerously false notions of reality with disastrous consequences.
Friday, October 14, 2016
These 2 Debt Instruments Pose Peril to Millions of Investors / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: EWI
A billionaire says the search for yield is overriding credit judgment
In a world of low and even negative rates, bond investors are so hungry for yield they're willing to accept high levels of risk.
For example, bond investors are increasingly embracing debt instruments known as covenant lite loans, which provide minimal protection should the issuer get into financial trouble.
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Wednesday, October 12, 2016
Announcing Trader Education Week -- a Free Event to Help You Learn to Spot Trading Opportunities / Interest-Rates / Learn to Trade
By: EWI
Dear Trader,
You have an opportunity to spend the next week learning how you can spot high-confidence trade setups in the charts you follow every day.
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Wednesday, October 12, 2016
Is The Fed Delaying The Day Of Reckoning? / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The FED and the Corporate World understand that there is NO economic recovery. They need to keep feeding this ‘bull market’ with plenty of accommodative easing or this ‘bull’ will die. The FED will do whatever it takes to maintain this by cutting rates to near zero and below so as to spruce up the economy. However, these conventional policies that are being applied, by the FED, will not work seeing as the ‘deflationary forces’ have gained momentum. Global economies cannot sustain rate hikes. They will continue to use ‘expansionary monetary policy’, indefinitely: (https://finance.yahoo.com/n...).
Monday, October 10, 2016
Bubble Blind Central Bankers / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: Michael_Pento
Fed Head Janet Yellen is keeping alive the tradition of her predecessors, Messrs. Greenspan and Bernanke, by showing she is equally as blind-sighted to the bubbles central banks are blowing in the bond and equity markets. During her September press conference, Ms. Yellen stubbornly clung to the misconception that it is only possible to tell if a bubble exists after it bursts. And because of this delusion, in Yellen's eyes ninety-six months of a virtual Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) is merely, and I quote, "a modest degree of accommodation." Her blinders are so opaque that she claims to see, "no signs of leverage building up." And her feckless ability to spot market imbalances even resulted in this doozy of a Yellen quote: "In general, I would not say that asset valuations are out of line with historical norms."
Sunday, October 09, 2016
World Gone Mad: Credit Bubble “Perpetual Preferred” / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market
By: John_Rubino
Towards the end of a credit bubble, ideas that might have seemed crazy in more boring times are not just accepted but embraced by investors desperate to keep the high that comes from effortless bull-market profits.
In the junk bond bubble of the late 1980s, for instance, there was the “PIK preferred,” a kind of stock/bond hybrid that paid its holders in more securities (PIK stood for “payment in kind”). Companies could issue them with zero near-term cash flow consequence while credulous investors bought them for their “high yields.”
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Tuesday, October 04, 2016
WARNING: the Bond Markets Are Signaling Something MASSIVE is Coming / Interest-Rates / Financial Crisis 2016
By: Graham_Summers
To understand the financial markets, you need to understand the hierarchy of asset classes.
That hierarchy is as follows:
Globally, the stock market is about $69 trillion in size, trading about $191 billion in shares per day.
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Monday, October 03, 2016
An Interest Rate Hike Would Be Ugly for US Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: John_Mauldin
BY JARED DILLIAN : I’ve taken bond math classes out the wazoo. The best of them was in the summer of 2001 at Lehman Brothers. Lehman Brothers wasn’t going to teach a bad bond math class, not at the firm that became synonymous with bond trading itself. I was ready to start whipping ‘em around. Pity I ended up in stocks.
Now, the tables have been turned, and I am the old, wizened professor, dropping some knowledge on the younger generation. I occasionally teach finance to MBA students, and there are a couple of chapters on bonds where the students have to get their calculators out.
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Monday, October 03, 2016
Out-of-Touch Fed Is Hurting the Average American / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: John_Mauldin
BY PATRICK WATSON : For the world’s top central banks, “the blind leading the blind” isn’t just a proverb. It’s reality.
A European Central Bank official recently said the ECB wants our Federal Reserve to hike interest rates in December. Why is that? In their twisted minds, it will confirm that years of monetary insanity actually worked.
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