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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Tuesday, August 09, 2011

S&P’s Downgrade of U.S. Sovereign Debt – Some People Actually Pay Them for these Opinions? / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2011

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleS&P stated the obvious after the U.S. markets closed on August 5 – the projected growth in U.S. public debt is on a long-term unsustainable path. Rather than paying S&P for this opinion, all you need to do is look at some past CBO projections and you would have arrived at the same opinion years ago. For example, in December 2007, CBO published the chart immediately below showing its projections of U.S. public debt held by the public as a percent of nominal GDP under two scenarios. The first scenario, the “extended-baseline” scenario, assumed that the federal spending and revenue budgetary legislation that was on the books as fiscal 2007 would prevail over the next 75 years.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, August 08, 2011

S&P U.S.Debt Downgrade, Don't Shoot the Messenger / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2011

By: Axel_Merk

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDon't shoot the messenger. The downgrade of U.S. government debt by S&P is the result of policies pursued over many years that rely on the U.S. being the world's reserve currency. Policy makers have forgotten that the status must be earned; it's not a birthright.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, August 08, 2011

El-Erian: U.S. Very, Very Long Way from Debt Default Risk / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2011

By: Bloomberg

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMohamed El-Erian, co-CEO of PIMCO, spoke to Bloomberg Television’s Betty Liu and Erik Schatzker this morning regarding the S&P downgrade and its impact on the markets and economy.

El-Erian said that the S&P downgrade is perhaps not yet the “Sputnik moment” and that the costs and risks of any new QE have gone up. Excerpts from the interview ca be found below, courtesy of Bloomberg Television

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Interest-Rates

Monday, August 08, 2011

U.S. Debt Downgrade Drama / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: George_Maniere

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWell we’ve done it. It’s official. The partisan bickering in Congress has managed to snatch defeat from the mouth of victory. I have written that I find it incredibly ironical that if S&P had done their job properly in the years of 2000 – 2007 we would not find ourselves in this economic morass. When the banks were selling these toilet paper mortgages, toxic assets and bundling them together as CDO’s who was stamping them “AAA”? S&P. S&P is a culpable for the collapse of the economic system as any of the greedy bankers. In my opinion they are more to blame. It was their job to make sure that this kind of greed and arrogance would not be tolerated.  Instead they were willing co-conspirators in this fraud that was perpetrated on the ill educated middle class.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, August 08, 2011

When Risk-Free Becomes Risk-Certain, Repercussions of the S&P Announcement / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2011

By: Jeff_Berwick

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLate Friday evening, Standard and Poor's was the first US credit ratings agency to actually whisper that, possibly, the emperor has no clothes.

The emperor, in fact, has been standing there naked for years.  All one has to do is look at the growth in US Government debt and that fact is clear.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, August 08, 2011

Bill Gross of PIMCO on U.S. Debt Downgrade / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2011

By: Bloomberg

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBill Gross, who runs the world's biggest bond mutual fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., appeared on Bloomberg Television's "Downgrade: A Special Report" live Sunday night special with Bloomberg's Tom Keene. Gross said the U.S. has "enormous" problems and that the dollar is vulnerable. He also said “his hat is off” to S&P for “demonstrating some spin.”

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Interest-Rates

Monday, August 08, 2011

U.S. Credit Rating Downgrade, We Are Not AAA / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2011

By: Vitaliy_Katsenelson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI have received many emails and a few calls from friends, asking one question: What are the consequences of the downgrade? So I decided to put my thoughts on paper. I break up the consequences into three categories: fundamental (the impact on the economy), emotional (the short-term impact on the market), and political (will it change anything in Washington DC?).

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Interest-Rates

Monday, August 08, 2011

The U.S. Should Downgrade S&P / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2011

By: EconMatters

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe biggest news last week (other than the $2.5-trillion that got wiped off global stock markets) is that Standard & Poor’s made good on its tough talk and downgraded the United States long-term credit rating one notch from AAA to AA+. S&P also has kept the outlook at “negative” meaning the U.S. has little chance of regaining the top rating in the near term.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, August 07, 2011

U.S. Downgrades S&P / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2011

By: Brady_Willett

U.S. Treasury Securities are no longer risk-free.  This news comes after Standard and Poor’s cut the triple-A rating it has awarded the U.S. since 1941 (Moody’s has been in the AAA camp since 1917). Given the U.S.’s status as the world’s reserve currency printer – not to mention the safe haven flows arriving in the U.S. due to the recent upheaval in Euroland - the immediate impact of the downgrade is highly uncertain. However, what can be said is that should Moody’s or Fitch also cut, capital may be required to exit U.S. debt due to restrictive ownership covenants.  This ominous prospect could quickly come into play should another financial crisis arise and/or the U.S. economy slip back into recession. After all, Moody’s warned last week that it may cut if lawmakers do not enact larger debt reduction plans (an increasingly difficult undertaking with the markets and economy weakening), and Fitch is set to complete its U.S. ratings review by the end of August.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, August 07, 2011

U.S. Debt downgrade doesn't mean what you think / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Submissions

Sam Houston writes: The U.S. Treasury borrows money by issuing bonds.  Because it has a massive spending problem and can't live within its means it runs a perpetual and ever expanding deficit.  The deficit is financed by issuing more bonds.  This process is currently going parabolic as the U.S. debt load is expanding at an alarming rate.  See the chart below.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, August 06, 2011

Currency Wars and Quantitative Easing / Interest-Rates / Central Banks

By: CentralBankNews

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe past week in monetary policy saw 12 central banks reviewing monetary policy settings, with 2 expanding asset buying programs, and just 3 adjusting interest rate levels. Those that adjusted interest rates were: Pakistan -50bps to 13.50%, Uganda +100bps to 14.00%, and Turkey -50bps to 5.75%; Switzerland also adjusted its interest rate target range downward to halt gains in the Swiss franc. Meanwhile those that held rates unchanged were: Botswana 9.50%, Uzbekistan 12.00%, Australia 4.75%, Japan 0.10%, Romania 6.25%, Russia 8.25%, EU 1.50%, UK 0.50%, and the Czech Republic 0.75%.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, August 05, 2011

U.S. Debt: Has its Past Become its Future? / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Casey_Research

Frank Trotter, President, EverBank Direct writes: Friends who know that I speak frequently about global economics have been calling to see what I think about the smackdown arguments over spending in Washington. I have surprised them all by saying that it’s really an empty record. Well, I suppose there is some kind of odd entertainment factor in the recent public debates about the U.S. debt ceiling.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, August 05, 2011

Dark Window Debt Default / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis

By: Andrew_McKillop

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe US debt crisis, with its see-through debt ceiling and dark invisible floor, so far below, has very serious rivals in Europe. Relative to GDP, the USA's sovereign debt is either less extreme, comparable to, or not far ahead of sovereign debt load in not-so-small Italy, France, Germany, UK and Spain. Apart from Germany, the other four members of Europe's Big-5 are very close to recession, even using their own official and doctored economic data. But needless to say, these are not normal times and hope, or at least illusion is more important than ever, to keep the party going one more day.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, August 05, 2011

German Central Bank Goes to War with ECB Over Resumption of Bond Purchases / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleECB Resumes Bond Buys; Open Feud Between German Central Bank and the ECB; Implications of "Trichet Out, Draghi In"

Yet Another Open Feud Between German Central Bank and the ECB on Bond Purchases;

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, August 04, 2011

U.S. National Debt Heading for $23 Trillion by 2021 / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMartin Hutchinson writes: There was a lot of back-patting in Washington this week after U.S. President Barack Obama signed a debt-ceiling deal that he and members of Congress claim will reduce the national debt.

But here's the truth: This deal does nothing to reduce America's debt burden. In fact, the $14 trillion we owe now could every easily exceed $23 trillion by 2021.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, August 04, 2011

Debt Ceiling or QE3 in Disguise? Gold Smells the Rats / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Andy_Sutton

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWith the debt deal now signed and the crisis proclaimed to be over by the government and the mainstream lapdog media, it is time to take a serious look at the debauchery that was just perpetrated on the American people – again. The names have barely changed from 2008. The tactics certainly haven’t.  The magic of government accounting has had another chapter added to it as something that actually adds to the deficit and requires money be borrowed on its behalf is now a ‘cut'. Isn’t that just special? There are several big myths about the past few weeks that we need to uncover before anyone is really going to understand what is really going on here.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, August 04, 2011

Is it a Sea Change if Rating Agencies Stick a Lower Rating for U.S. Sovereign Debt? / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe debt ceiling has been raised through 2012 and political drama related to the debt ceiling is unlikely to be repeated soon. Fitch and Moody’s indicated that the coveted AAA status of U.S. debt remains in place with a possibility of downgrades tied to the nature of fiscal consolidation Congress may deliver. As of this writing, S&P has not made public its opinion, but the new law does not meet its requirement of a $4 trillion reduction of the projected deficits indicated last month. Federal government debt (gross) of the United States stood at 93% of GDP in 2010 (see Chart 1). The Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) projections show this number at 105% by 2021.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, August 04, 2011

QE3 Coming Soon? Treasury TIPS Say No / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Tony_Pallotta

Using the Treasury TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities) one can determine inflation expectation simply by subtracting the treasury yield for the same maturity. As an example.

10 Year TIPS currently yields 0.29% (inflation adjusted yield)

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, August 04, 2011

Italy Bond Market Failure to Trigger Bailout as ECB to Become Buyer of "Only" Resort / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA critical Italian government bond auction is coming up Thursday, August 4. That bond auction is highly likely to fail. However, if it does fail, don't expect results to be reported that way.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, August 03, 2011

The New World Order of Global Sovereigns / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis

By: EconMatters

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe U.S. debt ceiling political soap has finally come to an end. With the debt deal done, the U.S. has dodged a major bullet of a debt default, but may not be out of the woods yet for a sovereign credit downgrade.  Nevertheless, regardless whether one or more of the Big 3 agencies (S&P, Moody's and Fitch) would really deal a downgrade to the U.S., it is the markets that holds the key to a sovereign's credit worthiness based on its ability to manage a balanced budget, implementing proper monetary and fiscal policies. From that perspective, the markets probably have already spoken.

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