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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Friday, April 15, 2011

Ireland Should Consider Joining the Sterling Area or the Dollar / Interest-Rates / Euro-Zone

By: Christopher_Quigley

“On Thursday 18th  November 2010 The IMF arrived in the Emerald Isle. What a sad sad day that was  for the proud people of Ireland. Following 300 years of armed struggle the then resident Fianna Fail government replaced English masters with the Continental variety. However the method of usurpation this time was not guns and bullets and starvation but economic and financial prowess. To the victor will go the spoils.” 

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, April 14, 2011

Why the FOMC Interest Rate Doves Have an Advantage at the April Meeting / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEconomic recessions have differences and similarities.  In terms of the duration and depth of a recession, the most recent downswing in economic activity is a close cousin of the 1981-82 recession, which lasted 16 months.  During this recession, real GDP fell 2.6% from peak to trough and the unemployment rate shot up to 10.8% by December 1982.  The most recent recession is 18 months long, real GDP has dropped 4.1% from peak to trough, and the unemployment rate hit a high of 10.1% in October 2009. 

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, April 12, 2011

Bill Gross, Master of Monetary Psy-Ops / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Ashvin_Pandurangi

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEvery so often, and more often than not, a rumor emerges in the blogosphere about a significant development, seemingly adverse to the interests of the U.S. federal government, being manufactured by the government to further solidify their control over the masses. Sometimes these rumors are plainly absurd on their surface, and sometimes they are just too perfect to be true. The nature of these "psy-ops" is that they are nearly impossible to verify with any direct evidence until well after the fact, so we must rely on indirect logical analysis and a bit of intuition.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, April 12, 2011

Financial Crisis in 2012 is Inevitable! Here’s Why / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2011

By: Arnold_Bock

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article2012 is shaping up to be the blockbuster main event of the ongoing financial crisis. Massive amounts of new debt, vast quantities of additional digital dollars and the spark of higher interest rates will set off version 2.0 of the credit-driven financial implosion.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, April 12, 2011

The End of QE2: Fed Major Policy Shift Ahead, How to Invest Accordingly / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis week’s Outside the Box is from my friend David Galland, an interview he did for The Casey Report, and it represents a philosophical train of thought more in line with Austrian economics and libertarianism than my own. But if we only read what we already think, then how do we learn? It is only when your ideas are challenged and you must determine why the other guys are wrong and you are right, that you can either become more firm in your beliefs, or change. And much of what David says in this interview resonates. (I wrote about the end of QE2 a few weeks ago.)

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Interest-Rates

Monday, April 11, 2011

U.S. Downward Debt Spiral Into the Abyss / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Jesse

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs we can see, the 'crisis' of the US budget impasse was averted, and the theater came to an end. Now the real work of creating a sustainable budget can begin.

The pigmen are going to be unrelenting in their attacks on the middle class and the poor. The attacks are threefold:

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, April 07, 2011

ECB Takes Away Low Interest Rate Punch Bowl / Interest-Rates / ECB Interest Rates

By: Axel_Merk

Today, the European Central Bank (ECB) raised its main refinancing rate by 0.25% to 1.25%.

ECB President Trichet has long argued that its monetary policy is independent of the "extraordinary measures" put in place to support the financial system. However, it was only earlier this year that the market took Trichet's suggestions that he may raise rates seriously, even as the sovereign debt crisis remains unresolved.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, April 06, 2011

Fed FOMC Minutes Show Divisions Over Inflation, QE and Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Asha_Bangalore

The main message from the minutes of the March 15 FOMC meeting is that policy making will be contentious as the members of the FOMC hold different opinions about inflation and the need to continue the exceptional financial accommodation that is underway.  Although all members agree that the recovery is on a "firmer footing" and the housing sector remains in a slump, their views about inflation were significantly different. 

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, April 05, 2011

The Low Interest Rate Economic Cure is the Disease / Interest-Rates / Economic Theory

By: Thorsten_Polleit

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs a reaction to the global financial and economic crisis, central banks around the world have cut their interest rates to the point of disappearing, because they see low interest rates as being conducive to making economies return to growth and prosperity.

According to the Austrian School of economics, however, the latest crisis has been brought about by a monetary policy of artificially suppressing the interest rate; and pushing interest rates down even further will only make matters worse.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, April 05, 2011

Bernanke’s Speech Should Help to Clarify the Likely Direction of the Fed / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Asha_Bangalore

The March employment report included several noteworthy aspects of strength in hiring.  The March 15 FOMC policy statement upgraded the Fed's assessment of the economy from the January evaluation.  At the same time, the housing market remains in a slump, there is severe financial stress at state and local governments, and there is considerable global economic uncertainty.  Chairman Bernanke is scheduled to speak this evening at a financial conference at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.  .Recent Fed rhetoric suggests that voting and non-voting members hold different opinions.  Chairman Bernanke may not have FOMC members voting in the same direction at the April 26-27 meeting.  In the interim, his speech today should suggest where he stands.  These are the latest comments of voting and non-voting members of the FOMC. 

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Interest-Rates

Monday, April 04, 2011

U.S. Will Default on Its Debt / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: DailyWealth

Dr. Steve Sjuggerud writes: "I am confident that this country will default on its debt," Bill Gross wrote this week.

Bill Gross is not some anti-American crackpot... quite the contrary.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, April 04, 2011

Will Portugal Send European Debt Crisis Out of Control? / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis

By: Pravda

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMost Americans have no idea just how bad the financial problems over in Europe are right now. The truth is that the entire European financial system is teetering on the brink of disaster. Ireland and Greece have already received bailouts and Portugal, Spain, Italy, France and Belgium are all drowning in an ocean of unsustainable debt. Sovereign credit ratings all over Europe have being slashed in recent months. For example, a while back Moody's Investors Service cut Ireland's bond rating by five levels. Up until now Europe has weathered all of this financial instability fairly well, but now huge new financial problems in Portugal threaten to send the European debt crisis spinning out of control.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, April 02, 2011

Picture Yourself as a Loan Officer, and Uncle Sam Wants a Loan / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Richard_Shaw

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticlePicture yourself as a loan officer for a moment.

Then imagine a very nice and sincere, but obviously clueless, person comes to you and says, my husband and I earn $100,000 per year, and we have found the home of our dreams with everything we have always wanted. It's price is $3.5 million, and I am here to request a mortgage in that amount from you.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, April 01, 2011

The Monetary Implications of Japan's Nuclear Catastrophe / Interest-Rates / Japanese Interest Rates

By: Ellen_Brown

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWHY THE JAPANESE GOVERNMENT CAN AFFORD TO REBUILD: IT OWNS THE LARGEST DEPOSITORY BANK IN THE WORLD

The Japanese government can afford its enormous debt because it owns the bank that is its principal creditor.  But competitors are attempting to force the bank’s privatization.  If they succeed, they could propel the country into debt servitude along with other credit-strapped nations. 

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Interest-Rates

Friday, April 01, 2011

The Credit Cycle / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2011

By: Puru_Saxena

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLet’s face it; the availability and cost of credit determine the value of every asset on the planet.

When credit is cheap and plentiful, all assets (with the exception of government bonds) inflate or appreciate in value.  Conversely, when credit becomes scarce and expensive, all assets (with the exception of government bonds) deflate or decline in value. 

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, March 30, 2011

Europe Whispers “Crisis” While the Market Continues Screaming / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis

By: Jason_Kaspar

Last year the Europe Union (and the euro) teetered on the verge of collapse when the Greek financial crisis strained the viability of the EU construct. This year, as other EU countries domino in similar fashion, no one seems to care – certainly not the markets. Portugal’s government collapsed last Friday, and Standard and Poor has downgraded Portugal twice in the last week from A- to BBB-.  S&P then proceeded to cut Greece’s rating further from BB+ to BB-. Yet, defying all reason, the markets have gone up.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, March 30, 2011

Quantitative Easing QE3 is on Its Way, Inflation Will Go Through the Roof / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Bob_Chapman

QE3 is on the way accompanied by almost zero official interest rates. QE1 was to bail out the financial sectors in the US and Europe and QE2 was to bail out US government debt. That is why the Fed has purchased 70% to 80% of Treasuries. Previous debt and the $1.6 trillion of new debt created this year means someone has to buy that debt and there are very few buyers. That means the Fed has to buy most of paper with funds created out of thin air in this monetization process.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, March 30, 2011

Federal Reserve Report: Central Bank's Record $82 Billion "Profit" is a Red Flag Warning / Interest-Rates / Central Banks

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMartin Hutchinson writes: If the record $81.7 billion in profit that the U.S. Federal Reserve reported for 2010 was turned over to taxpayers directly, there's no doubt it would have some "stimulus" benefit - after all, a $270 check for every man, women and child in the United States ain't chicken-feed.

But since that money actually just "disappears" into the coffers of the U.S. Treasury, it does very little good for anybody.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, March 30, 2011

European Stability Mechanism Helps Push Portugal To The Brink / Interest-Rates / Euro-Zone

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Richard Thies writes: Just days after cutting the rating on Portuguese government bonds from A- to BBB, S&P took the unusual action of further reducing its rating to BBB- today. The explicit cause for the additional downgrade was the recently announced terms of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), the structure that will permanently replace the temporary European Financial Stability Facility in 2013. Greece's rating was also cut further into junk territory from BB+ to BB-. There now exists a three-notch spread between Portugal's S&P and Moody's sovereign ratings, with the Moody's rating at A3 following a March 16th downgrade. 

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, March 29, 2011

To QE or Not to QE? That is the Question / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAt its March 15 meeting, the FOMC decided to continue with its program of quantitative easing, which would result in a net increase of $600 billion of Federal Reserve holdings of securities by the end of June. Of course, the FOMC issued a proviso with its decision. To wit, "The Committee will regularly review the pace of its securities purchases and the overall size of the asset-purchase program in light of incoming information and will adjust the program as needed to best foster maximum employment and price stability." Upon what "incoming information" should the Committee base its decision to modify its quantitative easing policy between now and June or, as important, beyond June?


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