Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, August 19, 2011
U.S. Treasury Hidden Trickery in Mortgage Backed Security Recoveries / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis Bailouts
By: Aftab_Singh
Right on schedule, the US Treasury received around $11 billion from the proceeds of Mortgage-backed Securities sales last Thursday. Moreover, the US Treasury released an update on the MBS portfolio wind down titled; ‘Taxpayers Recoveries Reach 70 Percent Milestone‘. The title left us thinking; hmmm… sort of… Here, I highlight the hidden confiscation involved with this particular piece of trickery and present the usual daily treasury statement charts.
Tuesday, August 16, 2011
Smallest Yield Curve Gap Between US and Japan in 19 Years Confirming Deflation / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Mike_Shedlock
Curve Watchers Anonymous notes amazingly low yields across the entire yield curve for the US, Japan, Germany, and the UK. Here is a chart I put together this evening.
Sunday, August 14, 2011
Central Banks Monetary Policy Rocked by Global Financial Markets Turmoil / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2011
By: CentralBankNews
The past week in monetary policy was rocked by the turmoil in global sentiment in the wake of the US sovereign credit rating downgrade, and heightened concerns about contagion in the European sovereign debt crisis. In all, 11 central banks reviewed monetary policy rates, with the following banks adjusting rates: Qatar -50bps to 4.50%, Mozambique -50bps to 16.00%, and Belarus +200bps to 22.00%. Meanwhile the following central banks held interest rates unchanged: Rwanda 6.00%, Indonesia 6.75%, US 0.25%, Hong Kong 0.50%, Norway 2.25%, Serbia 11.75%, South Korea 3.25%, and Peru 4.25%.
Saturday, August 13, 2011
Wall Street Bailout: Too Big To Collect? / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: EconMatters
In light of the recent S&P downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating, the nation suddenly looks more dire financially than before the downgrade ( (at least psychologically, as the country still has the ability to borrow at its pre-downgrade low interest rates.) So it would make tracking down Wall Street bailout money still outstanding a good start to reclaim some of the lost treasure.
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Saturday, August 13, 2011
The Zero Interest Rate Market Fix is In / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Peter_Schiff
This week's wild actions on Wall Street should serve as a stark reminder that few investors have any clue as to what is really going on beneath the surface of America's troubled economy. But this week did bring startling clarity on at least one front. In its August policy statement the Federal Reserve took the highly unusual step of putting a specific time frame for the continuation of its near zero interest rate policy.
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Friday, August 12, 2011
Opportunities in UK Gilts and US Bonds / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market
By: Seven_Days_Ahead
The market has overcome the important Pivot at 124.95 from 2002 - and where it has failed twice before in 2009 and 2010.
Thursday, August 11, 2011
Fed's Extension of Low Interest Rates For Another Two Years Will Deliver Damaging Inflation / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Money_Morning
David Zeiler writes:
With little ammo left in its arsenal, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) yesterday (Tuesday) was unable to offer jittery markets anything more than a two-year extension of the Fed's low interest rates.
Instead of promising to keep rates at their low 0% to 0.25% level for an "extended period" as it has in its past several meetings, the FOMC said it would maintain those rates "at least through mid-2013."
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Thursday, August 11, 2011
Why a U.S. Debt Default Will Be a Good Thing / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes:
Now that Standard & Poor's has finally slashed its U.S. credit rating, it's more apparent than ever that a U.S. default is imminent.
So if you're at all panicked by S&P's decision to downgrade the country's top-tier credit rating - and the resultant freefall in U.S. stock prices - brace yourself: It's going to get a lot worse before it gets better.
But make no mistake, it will get better.
Thursday, August 11, 2011
Why the Yield Curve is Steepening / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
Investors know that the yield curve can be used to forecast market movements. When the difference in yield between short-dated debt and long-dated debt grows or shrinks, the next major move is a bearish or bullish signal for risk-related investments.
Now the yield curve is steepening significantly, but this time, the steepening of the yield curve shows indecision in lending, not indecision in investing.
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Thursday, August 11, 2011
China Downgrades U.S. Treasury Bonds to A+, Is Anybody Listening? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Gary_Dorsch
Of the big-3 credit rating agencies, only the S&P rating agency had the courage and fortitude to speak the truth, about the severe deterioration of America’s financial status. S&P shocked the political establishment in Washington, by following through with its threat to downgrade US Treasury debt to AA+ on the evening of August 5th. S&P added that the US Treasury debt could be downgraded further, if the crooked and inept politicians in Washington haven’t taken any meaningful moves to cut the size of its mounting debt.
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
The Ice is Cracking, Get off the Sovereign Debt Late Before the Great Default Hits / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Gary_North
Ice skaters who go out onto lakes or large ponds are told from their early years not to skate on thin ice. The sound of cracking ice is a signal to skate toward the shore.
On Friday, August 5, 2011, the world heard the ice crack. Late in the day, Standard & Poor's downgraded American government debt by one point: from AAA to AA+.
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Wednesday, August 10, 2011
Marc Faber: Long-term U.S. Treasury Bond Market is a Bubble, Buy Gold / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Bloomberg
Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, appeared on Bloomberg Television's "Street Smart" with Bloomberg TV anchors Carol Massar and Matt Miller today.
Speaking on the phone from Thailand, Faber said that the markets are very oversold, the Fed is "underestimating the severity of the economic downturn" and that gold is the best investment right now.
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Wednesday, August 10, 2011
The Fed Holds Federal Funds Rate Unchanged Until Mid-2013, Also Leaves Door Open For More / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Asha_Bangalore
The one-day FOMC meeting concluded with an unchanged federal funds rate, no surprises here. In light of a string of recent weak economic reports a downgrade of its economic outlook was also not a surprise. The FOMC now sees “downsides risks the economic outlook” as having increased compared with its assessment in June. The Fed depicted labor market conditions to have “deteriorated,” household spending to have “flattened out,” the housing sector as languishing in a “depressed” state and the supply chain disruptions due to the natural disaster in Japan explaining only part of the economic slowdown.
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Wednesday, August 10, 2011
Trichet's Secret "Dragon Transfer" to Italy and France Becomes the "New Italy" / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Mike_Shedlock
Last week, ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet sent a secret letter to Silvio Berlusconi, Italy's Prime Minister demanding various labor reform actions from the Italian government. Leaks of that letter have appeared in Italian media, but there has been no comment on the letter in the US although there has been some discussion of announced Italian labor reforms.
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
Bankrupt Los Angeles, Harbinger for America / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Douglas_French
In a piece for the Wall Street Journal, Joel Kotkin tells of the demise of Los Angeles. No, you won't see Snake Plissken or Rick Deckard racing through the City of Angels just yet. But the city's political machine is doing all it can "to leave behind a dense, government-dominated, bankrupt, dysfunctional, Athens by the Pacific," explains Kotkin.
Tuesday, August 09, 2011
Trend-Ending Pattern in U.S. Treasury TBTs / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Purely from a near-term pattern perspective, the most recent down-leg in the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) from 28.43 to this morning's low at 26.69 appears to be carving out a falling wedge formation, which usually is a "trend-ending" pattern -- in this case, a down-trend ending pattern.
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Tuesday, August 09, 2011
S&P’s Downgrade of U.S. Sovereign Debt – Some People Actually Pay Them for these Opinions? / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2011
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
S&P stated the obvious after the U.S. markets closed on August 5 – the projected growth in U.S. public debt is on a long-term unsustainable path. Rather than paying S&P for this opinion, all you need to do is look at some past CBO projections and you would have arrived at the same opinion years ago. For example, in December 2007, CBO published the chart immediately below showing its projections of U.S. public debt held by the public as a percent of nominal GDP under two scenarios. The first scenario, the “extended-baseline” scenario, assumed that the federal spending and revenue budgetary legislation that was on the books as fiscal 2007 would prevail over the next 75 years.
Monday, August 08, 2011
S&P U.S.Debt Downgrade, Don't Shoot the Messenger / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2011
By: Axel_Merk
Don't shoot the messenger. The downgrade of U.S. government debt by S&P is the result of policies pursued over many years that rely on the U.S. being the world's reserve currency. Policy makers have forgotten that the status must be earned; it's not a birthright.
Monday, August 08, 2011
El-Erian: U.S. Very, Very Long Way from Debt Default Risk / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2011
By: Bloomberg
Mohamed El-Erian, co-CEO of PIMCO, spoke to Bloomberg Television’s Betty Liu and Erik Schatzker this morning regarding the S&P downgrade and its impact on the markets and economy.
El-Erian said that the S&P downgrade is perhaps not yet the “Sputnik moment” and that the costs and risks of any new QE have gone up. Excerpts from the interview ca be found below, courtesy of Bloomberg Television
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Monday, August 08, 2011
U.S. Debt Downgrade Drama / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: George_Maniere
Well we’ve done it. It’s official. The partisan bickering in Congress has managed to snatch defeat from the mouth of victory. I have written that I find it incredibly ironical that if S&P had done their job properly in the years of 2000 – 2007 we would not find ourselves in this economic morass. When the banks were selling these toilet paper mortgages, toxic assets and bundling them together as CDO’s who was stamping them “AAA”? S&P. S&P is a culpable for the collapse of the economic system as any of the greedy bankers. In my opinion they are more to blame. It was their job to make sure that this kind of greed and arrogance would not be tolerated. Instead they were willing co-conspirators in this fraud that was perpetrated on the ill educated middle class. Read full article... Read full article...