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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Friday, September 18, 2015

Fed Keeps US Interest Rates Unchanged - Comparison of Sep and July Statements / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Ashraf_Laidi

The Fed kept rates unchanged with an unambiguously dovish statement, focusing on weakening inflation, rising market turbulence and a new reference to foreign developments. The dot forecasts pointed to slower growth and lower core inflation and lower fed funds projections. The only hawkish dissent to the decision was from Richmond Fed's Lacker, but this point was made moot by not only due to Lacker's well documented hawkish stance, but also by the fact that the dot plot showed one Fed member expecting negative rates, even if this member is the widely dovish Minneapolis Fed's Kocherlakota.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, September 17, 2015

Stock Market Optimism Ahead Of Fed's Interest Rate Decision Release / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified

Our intraday outlook is neutral, and our short-term outlook is neutral:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): neutral
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): neutral
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): bearish
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, September 17, 2015

Don't Buy the Fed's New "Bribe-a-Bank" Interest Rate Policy / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: ...

MoneyMorning.com Lee Adler writes: After seven long, strange years, we're now looking at the end of ZIRP as we know it.

And good riddance, too. It's been a disaster for the U.S. economy, the middle class, the housing market – just about every facet of American economic life has suffered from this fiscal disaster masquerading as coherent monetary policy.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, September 17, 2015

U.S. Fed Must Avoid Bank of Japan Errors / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Ashraf_Laidi

No, the US is not Japan and the Federal Reserve is not the Bank of Japan. But when we assess the implications of what could be the first Fed rate after 7 years of zero interest rate policy in the US, there's no better reference than the BoJ.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, September 16, 2015

Lowdown on U.S. Rate Hikes / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Axel_Merk

Will she raise or will she not? As financial markets focus on whether we will see a Fed rate hike this week, investors may be in for a rude awakening.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, September 16, 2015

U.S. Interest Rate Hike - Will The Fed Pick A Winning Combination? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Raul_I_Meijer

It’s highly amusing to read all the ‘expert’ theories on a Federal Reserve hike or no hike tomorrow, but it’s also obvious that nobody really has a clue, and still feel they should be heard. Don’t know if that’s so smart, but I guess in that world being consistently wrong is not that big a deal.

Thing is, US economic numbers are so ‘massaged’ and unreliable, the Fed can pick whichever way the wind blows to argue whatever decision it makes. As long as jobs numbers get presented for instance without counting the 90-odd million Americans who are not in the labor force, and a majority of new jobs are waiters, just about anything goes in that area. Numbers on wages are just as silly.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, September 15, 2015

One and Done Fed is a Wall Street Fantasy / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Michael_Pento

One of the current myths promulgated by Wall Street is that the Federal Reserve will raise rates once this year, breathe a sigh of relief, and be done until the "12th of never". But those who are familiar with our central bank's history are aware that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has never tightened the Fed Funds Rate just once. A quarter point hiking cycle has no historical basis and is just wishful Wall Street thinking.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, September 14, 2015

Next Generation QE Money Printing Coming Soon / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: John_Rubino

The intellectual groundwork is being laid for the next stage of the Money Bubble, and it's going to be epic. Here are excerpts from two articles that appeared over the weekend (and which should be read in their entirety). Both deal with Japan, which went all-in on debt monetization, lost badly, and now needs a new plan.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, September 13, 2015

How the Fed Is Hurting U.S. Manufacturing / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Investment_U

Sean Brodrick writes: Whether he deserves it or not, Obama is getting kudos on his handling of the economy, particularly the declining unemployment rate. In August, the official headline unemployment rate dropped to 5.1%. But that same jobs data out of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) contained some sobering news: Manufacturing payrolls are getting shredded.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, September 13, 2015

Three Critical and Disturbing Facts About the Debt Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Investment_U

Andrew Snyder writes: The next five days are going to be some of the most important days for investors in recent history. What happens next will set the stage for big profits or a sustained downturn.

We are worried about what the Fed has done to the interest rate game. As Yellen and her troops prepare to raise rates for the first time in over half a decade, the distortions they created in the market have become flat-out dangerous.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, September 12, 2015

The US Has Already Tightened — Which Explains A Lot / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: John_Rubino

Next week we’ll find out if the longest-ever will-they-or-won’t-they drama involving a virtually insignificant quarter-point interest rate change will amount to anything. But either way, US monetary policy is already a lot tighter than it was a year ago.

The Fed’s balance sheet, for instance, is a measure of how much new currency it is pumping into the banking system. And it’s up only $79 billion, or 1.8%, in the past year. In real terms, that’s flat to slightly negative.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, September 11, 2015

Bloomberg Interest Rate Hike Odds Still Wrong; Deflationary Bust Coming / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Bloomberg

As of September 10, the CME has the of a September hike by the Fed at 24%. Bloomberg says the probability of a move is 28%.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, September 10, 2015

Confusions About Interest Rates Part 2 / Interest-Rates / Economic Theory

By: Frank_Hollenbeck

Following the 2001 dot-com crisis, interest rates were lowered to 1% and then slowly raised to 5% over a 4-year period. This timid policy still created a massive bubble in housing that finally bust in 2008. Instead of learning from the past, we doubled down on this same failed policy. Interest rates were then lowered to 0% and have been held there with little political will to raise them one iota.

We are now on the eve of another major financial crisis, yet economists (except Austrians) still don’t really understand the role played by interest rates in a capitalist economy. To avoid repeating economic mistakes of the past, we must understand the faulty logic that led us to these errors.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, September 10, 2015

Confusion About Interest Rates Part 1 / Interest-Rates / Economic Theory

By: Frank_Hollenbeck

Since 2008, central banks have rushed to lower interest rates to spur growth. This has induced mal-investments in almost all asset classes. For example, with oil prices below $50 a barrel and trending lower, the shale oil industry is in serious trouble as is the banking industry that lent it over $1 trillion.

Of course, economists and faulty economic theory are 100% responsible for what is to come. The professional economist today is like the doctor of the past whose prescription to bleed the patient was considered state-of-the-art medicine; the cure, of course, being much worse than the disease. 

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, September 09, 2015

Why the Greeks Should Repudiate Their Government’s Debt / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: MISES

Simon Wilson writes: In apportioning blame for the Greek government debt crisis, it would be difficult not to lay the major share on Greece itself. With government jobs paying three times the private sector average, a national rail service with a wage bill four times its annual revenue, a public pension system that would pay out generous benefits at fifty for anyone classified as working in “arduous” professions like hairdressing, there is no shortage of taxpayer-funded largesse running rampant through Greek society.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, September 09, 2015

Fed Interest Rate Tightening Cycles and USD Performance / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Ashraf_Laidi

Is the peak of the US dollar behind us? Depending on your USD measure of choice, the dollar may have already peaked, when using EUR and JPY, the two largest and most liquid currencies aside from the greenback. If the bulk of the USD bull market starting in summer 2014 was based on heightened expectations of a Fed hike, then would an actual Fed hike signal the peak of the US dollar? Here is our analysis on the response of the US dollar to each of the last three Fed tightening cycles (1994-1995, 1999-2000 and 2004-2006). One common theme was found.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, September 08, 2015

Here's Your Insurance Against a $200 Trillion Debt Bubble Crash / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2015

By: ...

MoneyMorning.comPeter Krauth writes: The world is awash in debt, and it's simply unsustainable. As worldwide debt levels keep setting new records, there's no chance anyone will ever be paid back.

Even "vampire squid" Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS), with its tentacles deep into bond markets, thinks so.

The world's central banks now have an insurmountable dilemma: Raising interest rates will just increase the repayment burden. Keeping them low will only inflate the debt bubbles all over.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, September 07, 2015

4 Reasons Why the Fed Will Try Quantitative Easing - REDUX / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

While we were led to believe that the Fed would begin tightening upon recovery, new fears of a double dip have sparked the Keynesian clan into moving in the opposite direction. Soon enough, we believe, a new quantitative easing program will be unveiled.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, September 04, 2015

Meet QT; QE's Evil Twin / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Peter_Schiff

There is a growing sense across the financial spectrum that the world is about to turn some type of economic page. Unfortunately no one in the mainstream is too sure what the last chapter was about, and fewer still have any clue as to what the next chapter will bring. There is some agreement however, that the age of ever easing monetary policy in the U.S. will be ending at the same time that the Chinese economy (that had powered the commodity and emerging market booms) will be finally running out of gas. While I believe this theory gets both scenarios wrong (the Fed will not be tightening and China will not be falling off the economic map), there is a growing concern that the new chapter will introduce a new character into the economic drama. As introduced by researchers at Deutsche Bank, meet "Quantitative Tightening," the pesky, problematic, and much less disciplined kid brother of "Quantitative Easing." Now that QE is ready to move out...QT is prepared to take over.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, September 04, 2015

Bill Gross: Jobs Report Means ‘Fifty-Fifty’ Chance of Fed Sept Interest Rate Move / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Bloomberg

Bill Gross of Janus Capital spoke with Bloomberg's Tom Keene and Michael McKee on Bloomberg Radio and Television about today's jobs numbers, the markets and Fed policy.

When asked whether the Fed will raise rates on September 17th, Gross said: "I still think it’s 50/50 and China and global conditions are the dominant factor. Otherwise, I would have said, yes, I think Fischer and Yellen and maybe even Dudley their fingers are itching."

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