Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, April 25, 2017
US Treasury Bond Yields / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Ed_Carlson
TNX – the yield on the 10yr US Treasury note - gained 0.22% last week closing at 22.37 but 14-day RSI remains below its own 20-dma; bearish. The break of support at 23.35 (now resistance) has opened a door for a return to 20.00.
The monthly chart below shows how the long-term trend line has turned back the rally in TNX on numerous occasions. However, as the monthly Coppock Curve failed to confirm the 2012 low during the 2016 test of that low we’ve probably seen the low of the +30yr decline in interest rates.
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Wednesday, April 19, 2017
The Fed Must Be Reading Our Work / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: Rodney_Johnson
It’s too much of a coincidence. Fed officials must be reading our work.OK, they don’t really have to be… but if they don’t, they should.
It’s not that we deserve credit for what comes next at the Fed, but I was glad to read the details last week in the nitty-gritty of the Fed’s minutes of its March meeting. (You would’ve had to have read it there; Fed chair Janet Yellen didn’t talk about it at all in her post-meeting press conference.)
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Monday, April 17, 2017
Fed Will Cause a 2008 Redux / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Michael_Pento
Truth is a rare commodity on Wall Street. You have to sift through tons of dirt to find the golden ore. For example, main stream analysis of the Fed's current monetary policy claims that it will be able to normalize interest rates with impunity. That assertion could not be further from the truth.
The fact is the Fed has been tightening monetary policy since December of 2013, when it began to taper the asset purchase program known as Quantitative Easing. This is because the flow of bond purchases is much more important than the stock of assets held on the Fed's balance sheet. The Fed Chairman at the time, Ben Bernanke, started to reduce the amount of bond purchases by $10 billion per month; taking the amount of QE from $85 billion, to 0 by the end of October 2014.
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Tuesday, April 11, 2017
Who’s Liking the US Interest Rate Hike Most? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Nicholas_Kitonyi
As investors prepare for what looks like a potentially second rate hike within the first half of 2017, there are those who are still questioning the overall impact of increased interest rates on the economy.By trade, stock market investors gain more when interest rates are higher. This is simply because capital risk assets will reflect the interest rate hike. However, as per the most recent rate hike, things seem to be a little different.
The stock market rallied from late January when a rate hike during the first quarter of the calendar year became more feasible with every Federal Reserve minutes pointing towards an increment.
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Wednesday, April 05, 2017
US Debt Ceiling Shutdown: What Would Happen if the Government Shut Down For Good? / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Jeff_Berwick
It’s that time of year again where the US government acts like it will “shut down” and argues about nonsensical things to try to make people believe they are somehow necessary.
In 2015, Congress suspended the ceiling, which let the government borrow as much as it wanted through March 15, 2017. On that date, the total national debt was $19.846 trillion, and the government can't exceed that limit without approval from Congress.
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Tuesday, April 04, 2017
All Eyes on US Bond Market Yields / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
After the first day of trading of April, a relatively uneventful one for the equity markets in general, the most consequential market for me is 10-year yield!
Yield continues to exhibit weakness, and is bearing down on a critical 5-month support level at 2.30%, which if violated and sustained, will trigger downside continuation signals that project to 2.10% optimally, and possibly to 2.00% prior to the next upmove (in yield).
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Thursday, March 23, 2017
Trading with Elliott Waves Doesn't Have to Be Complicated / Interest-Rates / Elliott Wave Theory
By: EWI
Start simple, with the basic 5 "core" Elliott wave chart patterns
Jeffrey Kennedy, a recognized expert in Elliott wave analysis and forecasting, explains why the Wave Principle is such a reliable and powerful way to forecast the financial markets.
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Thursday, March 23, 2017
Low Interest Rates Helping Australia Transition from the Mining Boom / Interest-Rates / Austrailia
By: Nicholas_Kitonyi
Australia’s transition from its reliance on mining exports to other sectors appears to be gathering pace as more businesses continue to take advantage of the low interest rates.The Reserve Bank of Australia reduced the base interest rate, popularly referred to as the cash rate, twice last year from 2% to 1.75% and again to 1.5%. The cash rate remains fixed at 1.5%, which when compared to many developed countries is still one of the highest.
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Wednesday, March 22, 2017
MSM Bond Market Full Nonsense Mode as ‘Trump Trades’ Unwind on Schedule / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Gary_Tanashian
I’ve been watching the herds to try to determine just when the interest rate topic among the best and brightest (as chosen by the media) would start to pivot from ‘rising rates!’ hysterics that have been locked and loaded in the public psyche since the US election to a sort of ‘rut roh, maybe we got played again… ‘ realization that Rome – and a Great America – are not built in a day.
Monday, March 20, 2017
Where the Fed Goes, Other Central Banks May Not Follow / Interest-Rates / Central Banks
By: STRATFOR
It has been a busy couple of days for the world's central banks. Since the U.S. Federal Reserve made its decision to hike interest rates, rate announcements have followed from the People's Bank of China, the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England. This confluence of activity from most of the key guardians of the global economy provides a good opportunity to take stock of where things stand.
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Friday, March 17, 2017
US Government Hits Its Debt Target (Ceiling) Again As Trump Has No Plan To Reduce Government / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Jeff_Berwick
Many people fell for Donald Trump’s pre-election promises, but we warned there would be no major changes made and that Trump was an elite insider.
How right we were.
Here was a list of his biggest promises and how he has already backtracked on all of them:
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Wednesday, March 15, 2017
Forget 3% Growth with This Deficit, US Approaching 150% Debt-to-GDP Ratio / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: John_Mauldin
Studies have shown that when government debt rises above 90% it begins to have an effect on the growth of GDP. That conclusion is a bit controversial in economic circles, as some say the critical level is higher or lower.
Understand, those studies are not examining some theoretical proposition; they are looking at actual debt and growth levels in countries over a long period of history. And the data show that excess debt inhibits growth.
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Wednesday, March 15, 2017
Fed Rate Hikes, Fiscal vs. Monetary Policy and Why Again the Case for Gold? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Gary_Tanashian
I’ve been thinking about the current Fed Funds rate hike cycle, which is logically gaining forward momentum now that the Fed can stand down from its 8-year, ultra-lenient monetary policy cycle. That is because the Obama administration’s goals required a compliant Federal Reserve to continually re-liquefy the economy as its fiscal policies drained it.
Tuesday, March 14, 2017
Raising the Ides of March US Debt Ceiling Limit / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: BATR
One of the most played out scenarios in the rarified air of Washington life support is keeping the debt balloon inflating without blowing. Dismissing all the drama from the Kabuki theater that relies upon passing another continuing resolution to raise the debt limit seems to be one of the most reliable predictions that can be made about Congress. Come hell or high water, the borrowing ceiling goes up. So when Mnuchin calls on Congress to raise debt limit as deadline approaches, all seems ready to follow the familiar pattern of kicking the can down the road.
Friday, March 03, 2017
How Trump Versus Fed Adds to Uncertainty / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Dan_Steinbock
To implement his $1 trillion dollar infrastructure plan, President Trump needs low rates, even though the Fed’s rate hikes will strengthen dollar. That means new uncertainty worldwide.In his Crippled America (2015), Trump argued that “our airports, bridges, water tunnels, power grids, rail systems—our nation's entire infrastructure is crumbling, and we aren't doing anything about it."
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Thursday, March 02, 2017
Trump Avoid Debt Crisis ? “Extremely Unlikely” says Rickards / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: GoldCore
The upcoming March 15 U.S. debt ceiling deadline is something that is being largely ignored by markets and most media for now. Despite it being just 9 trading days away. This will change in the coming days and is one of the many reasons why we are bullish on gold.
Saturday, February 25, 2017
A Damaging Week for U.S. Treasury Yield! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
What a weird and unsettling week. The equity indices for the most preserved their gains, albeit despite Thursday's divergent action, while the bond market went straight up (YIELD straight down), which is the more curious of the major asset class behavior as we head into the weekend...
Technically, the plunge in yield fom 2.46% on Tuesday to 2.30% on Friday (-6.5%) has broken the integrity of the Dec-Feb high-level coil/digestion pattern. It is threatening to morph all of the action since Dec 15 (2.64%) into an intermediate-term top formation that will project weaker yield into the area of the up-sloping 200 day eMA, now at 2.10%
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Monday, February 20, 2017
A Game Of Chess And The Source Of The Federal Reserve’s Power / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: Kelsey_Williams
We have become pawns in the game of Chess being played by the Federal Reserve Bank. Who is their opponent? Anybody else who makes a move.
Week in, week out, everyone’s eyes and ears seem fixed on what the Federal Reserve Board will say or do. Mostly, it is about what they say. That’s because they can’t really do much of anything.
Except inflate the supply of money and credit. Which they have been doing for over one hundred years. And they are good at it, too. The historic erosion in value of the US dollar should merit more acclaim – or outrage. Unfortunately, the Fed is good at shifting the focus of concern to their opponent(s).
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Wednesday, February 15, 2017
This Chart Shows an Economic Anomaly That Investors Can’t Explain / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: John_Mauldin
BY PATRICK WATSON : Nineteenth-century writer Frédéric Bastiat, in his classic “Broken Window” parable, warned that economic thinking requires us to see what isn’t happening as well as what is.
This yield curve chart from Macquarie Research provides a good example.
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Monday, February 13, 2017
Is the UK An Economy Built on Debt? / Interest-Rates / UK Debt
By: Submissions
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