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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Sunday, July 06, 2008

US Treasury Bonds Trend Higher Despite Inflation as Economy Continues to Weaken / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Levente_Mady

The Treasury market extended its incredible winning streak to 3 weeks in a row! The trend remained intact as bonds continue to strangely trade higher with increasing energy prices. There was no relief for the financial sector as the US stock market started the second half the same way it finished the first half: round the bowl and down the hole… Credit spreads remain under pressure and liquidity is not improving. In spite of crude oil continuing to set new highs week after week, energy stocks are diverging noticeably. The lack of M&A activity even in the sector is just another sign of how severely liquidity has gone missing.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, July 03, 2008

ECB Increases Interest Rates as Trichet Warns of 'Exploding' Inflation / Interest-Rates / Euro-Zone

By: Mark_OByrne

Gold  rose to $94 4 .80 in New York yesterday and was up $ 2.0 0 and silver closed at $18. 33 , up  13  cents. 

Gold has remained firm near 10 week highs on the surging oil price which reached a new record high today < $145.72 - Light Sweet Crude Oil Future - Combined - AUG08>. The dollar is flat today after it's decline in value in recent days. Against the euro, the dollar looks set to fall through support at 1.60 in the coming days and 1.70 euro/dollar looks like a very real possibility by the end of September. Longer term the likelihood of a sharp long recession in the U.S. could well see the euro reach 1.80 or even 2.00 against the dollar (as sterling did to the surprise of many in recent years).

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, July 01, 2008

Treasury Bond Investors Mysteriously Prepared to Receive Negative Real Returns / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Michael_Pento

It has become apparent to me that investors who continue to place money in the U.S. Treasury market don't have any idea how to protect themselves from inflation or how to achieve a real return on their investments. Even though inflation is running at a multi-decade high (according to official government numbers), we find that these fixed income investors were willing to send the yield on the 10 year note to an historical low of 3.38% on March 19th of this year. As amazing as that sounds in a world of 4+% “official” inflation rates, it was nothing compared to what happened just last month.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, July 01, 2008

US Treasuries May Be Ending Recovery Rally Phase / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Paulenoff

Once again perhaps we can derive a message from the action of the Lehman 20-Year T-Bond ETF (AMEX: TLT), which today failed to climb above yesterday's 6-week recovery high at 92.81 in what I thought would be an extension of the "flight to safety" syndrome in an otherwise treacherous equity market. No such action has taken place thus far this morning.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, July 01, 2008

Credit Conditions Worst in 35 years as US Manufacturing Contracts / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleNot to belabor the point I have made in recent commentaries, but last Friday afternoon's report from the Fed of assets and liabilities of commercial banks in the U.S. showed the sharpest 13-week contraction in bank credit - loans and investments - in the history of the series, which dates back to January 3, 1973. In the 13 weeks ended June 18, bank credit contracted at an annualized rate of 9.14% (see Chart 1 below). Because of current or expected capital inadequacy, banks are reining in their earning assets and, therefore, are not availing themselves of the cheap credit the Fed is offering to fund them at. This suggests that the 2% fed funds rate in the current context does not represent as accommodative a monetary policy as it would if the banking system were willing and able to extend credit to the private sector.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, June 30, 2008

US Treasury's Retain Steepening Yield Curve Trend / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Levente_Mady

The Treasury market is on a tremendous winning streak: it is up for the second week in a row! Safe haven flows continue to dominate as bonds strangely trade higher in step with increasing energy prices. The financial sector continues to melt away in spectacular fashion as the US stock market looks to be heading for one of its top 10 largest monthly drops ever. Credit spreads remain under pressure and liquidity is not improving. Quarter end window dressing will definitely not help the sectors that have been beaten down at least for the next few days.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, June 28, 2008

Fed Money Supply and Aggregate Credit Not Fueling US Inflation / Interest-Rates / Money Supply

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOne of the tenets of that now allegedly defunct economic schools, monetarism, is that you cannot judge the stance of monetary policy by the level of the policy interest rate. Sometimes a 2% fed funds rate might be accommodative; sometimes restrictive. Right now, the 2% fed funds rate is not the catalyst for excessive growth in the money and credit aggregates. Let's start with the credit directly created out of thin air (similar to counterfeit money) by the Federal Reserve - the monetary base.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, June 28, 2008

Credit Derivatives Deleveraging End Game / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Mick_Phoenix

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWelcome to the Weekly Report. This week we get so bearish that even I worry that my personal sentiment indicator may have reached an extreme. We tie up some loose ends and recap Citigroup.

"The opera ain't over until the fat lady sings." Singing? I doubt there is a bear in the world that isn't humming the Ride of the Valkyries as the charts tell a tale that will scare your grandchildren. It's looking ugly and has the potential to get downright repulsive. That potential shows up when a longer term view of the charts is taken. This week we look at banks, more specifically those banks that participated or later merged/bought/bailed out with banks that helped liquefy the LTCM rescue.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, June 28, 2008

Fed Blows It! Wall Street and Dollar Pounded! / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMike Larson writes: Boy, did Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke blow it this week!

Investors were looking for a strong Fed statement because they believed it would support the dollar and snuff out the recent surge in commodities prices.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, June 28, 2008

Turf Wars: Fed, SEC vs. Congress, Treasury / Interest-Rates / Market Regulation

By: Mike_Shedlock

The infighting between Fed governors as noted in Fed Governors Openly Question Bernanke's Competence , has now become a major turf war involving the Fed, Congress, the treasury department, and the SEC.

Senators Dodd, Shelby Warn Fed, SEC on Rushing Securities Deal .
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Christopher Cox were ordered by two top senators not to proceed with a deal overseeing Wall Street until consulting with Congress.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, June 26, 2008

Markets Panic as Feds Bluff Called on US Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFor the last couple weeks, my attention has been given to the amusement and desperation behind propaganda, bluffs, and the utter desperation of the US Federal Reserve in the orchestrated rumors of a new position wherein they would soon or eventually raise the official interest rate in order to combat the horrendous price inflation brought about by the falling crippled US Dollar. What utter nonsense! To hear that the investment community actually accepted and embraced this notion was laughable on its face, and served as continued evidence that the loose collection of investors, speculators, and observers simply cannot wake up reality despite the events that began last August 2007 when the mortgage debacle ripped the banking system wide open with gaping wounds. The US Fed needs to arrest the falling US Dollar., no doubt. But it cannot.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, June 26, 2008

FOMC Stays on Hold, Keeping Its Interest Rate Options Open / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

The Fed is less worried about a death spiral in real economic activity and more worried about upside risks on inflation than it was at the end of April. This does not mean that the economic downside risks and inflation upside risks are equal in the eyes of the FOMC. In my opinion, the Fed remains more worried about weaker economic activity than it is about a wage-price spiral. Recent data suggest that housing is nowhere near a bottom, capital spending remains weak and the labor markets continue to soften.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Waiting for the Fed's US Interest Rate Decision and Statement / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Jennifer_Yousfi

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEconomists and investors wait with bated breath for the U.S. Federal Reserve to release the statement from the Federal Open Market Committee this afternoon (Wednesday) at 2:15 p.m. EDT.

While it is almost universally expected that the FOMC will vote to hold the Federal Funds rate steady at its current 2.0%, the language in the accompanying statement will be scrutinized for clues about the upcoming August and September meetings.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, June 24, 2008

Fed Futures Discounting Interest Rate Hikes and Dollar Support / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Black_Swan

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleToday begins a heavily anticipated FOMC meeting. Yeah, we know all the meetings are hyped-up quite a bit, but this one’s a little different. That’s because the head hauncho, Ben Bernanke, has changed his tone.

Coming off a series of rate cuts that’s taken the Fed Funds rate from 5.25% all the way down to 2%, Bernanke is talking like he’s already prepared to start hiking his benchmark rate right back up. His comments over the last few weeks have been aimed most directly at inflation (rather than the potential for further economic weakness). He’s even made clear remarks about the consequences of a weak U.S. dollar.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, June 24, 2008

Credit Crisis to Deteriorate on Credit Derivative Debacle / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Mark_OByrne

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleGold closed at $984.40 in New York  yesterday and was down 17.30 cents and silver closed at $16.76, down 57 cents. 

Gold rallied in Asia and in early European trading to recover some of yesterday's sharp losses. Oil has risen to near record highs, above $138 a barrel again this morning and the dollar has given up much of yesterday's gains (1.557 to the Euro) and this is likely leading to gold buying.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, June 23, 2008

All Eyes on the Fed Signals on US Interest Rates and Inflation / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: William_Patalon_III

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe U.S. Federal Reserve will be in the spotlight again this week - and not because of those speaking engagements that seem to help whipsaw investor emotions. Tomorrow (Tuesday) and Wednesday, central bank Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will meet with his fellow policymakers on the interest-rate setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

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Interest-Rates

Monday, June 23, 2008

Fed Interest Rate Cuts Have Fed Food and Fuel Inflation / Interest-Rates / Money Supply

By: Andy_Sutton

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article“Between a rock and a hard place” - Over the past few months, the US Federal Reserve, amid much fanfare, has lowered the benchmark interest rate from 5.25% to 2%. This loose policy was lauded by those in the financial media as being the right thing to do to prop up the economy, and banks in particular. Bernanke went from being the goat to the hero almost overnight. Rest easy folks, our Fed Chairman is on board; finally having gotten with the program.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, June 23, 2008

Fed to Keep Interest Rates on Hold for Months if Not Years / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Levente_Mady

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Treasury market finally showed some signs of life last week after a multi-week annihilation. It was a relatively quiet week in bond land as traders were more preoccupied with ever rising energy prices and ever increasing problems in the financial sector. After many months of deliberations the rating agencies finally got around to downgrading the bond insurers. 2 observations are in order here: 1, don't ever never ever never rely on the rating agencies for advice as they are severely, severely lagging indicators and they have a huge conflict of interest and 2, make sure you have a chuckle and quickly dismiss anyone who is trying to sell you on the idea of efficient markets.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, June 22, 2008

How the Fiat Money System Invents Money and What's Gone Wrong / Interest-Rates / Fiat Currency

By: Mick_Phoenix

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis week I want to aim the article at those who normally do not frequent financial bulletin boards or sites. You, the reader, need to help me in this cause.

People who read financial BB's are already interested and to some extent (though not always) informed about how certain economic conditions occur and can hold a healthy debate about the cures for such ills.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, June 21, 2008

$2 Trillion Credit Contraction as Consumer Debt Defaults Soar / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCredit is drying up everywhere. Banks are now concerned (finally), about rising credit card debt. They have every reason to be. The bankruptcy reform act of 2005, which encouraged such reckless lending is now blowing up in lenders' faces.

Banks and credit card companies wrote that bill. They got everything they wanted. It goes to show you two things:

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