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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Sunday, March 11, 2012

There Will Be Euro-zone Debt Crisis Contagion, The Next Greek Tragedy / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis Article… (December 11, 2009) – Greece's prime minister, George Papandreou, told reporters in Brussels on Friday that European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet and Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker see "no possibility" of a Greek default, Bloomberg News reported. Papandreou also said that there was no possibility of Greece leaving the euro area, according to the report.

… (January 29, 2010) – There is no bailout and no "plan B" for the Greek economy because there is no risk it will default on its debt, the European monetary affairs commissioner, Joaquin Almunia, insisted on Friday.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, March 10, 2012

The Fed gets creative / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Alasdair_Macleod

According to a story in Wednesday’s Wall Street Journal, the US Federal Reserve is considering buying long-term Treasury and mortgage bonds in return for deposits held at the Fed. There has been no comment from the Fed and the story might have been no more than a trial balloon, in which case Bernanke and Co may be considering skewing the yield curve so that long-term bonds are less attractive than the time-preferences set by the market.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, March 09, 2012

If Economy is Recovering, Why Are U.S. Cities Going Bankrupt? / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: EWI

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs pundits chatter about an economic recovery, 80 miles east of San Francisco you'll find a city (pop. 292,000) facing bankruptcy:

Stockton is on the verge of becoming the largest city in the United States to declare bankruptcy...

San Francisco Chronicle (3/4)

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, March 08, 2012

BoE Interest Rate Ddecision / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates

By: Submissions

Gareth Talbot submits: Following today’s Bank of England interest rate decision Phil McHugh, senior analyst at foreign exchange firm Currencies Direct, said:

“The pound fell to a one week low against the euro in the run up to the BoE rate decision although remained steady on the announcement.  The decision as expected was to maintain rates at 0.5% and to hold fire on the asset purchasing programme.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, March 04, 2012

Debt Crisis Unintended Consquences, What Greece Should Do and What About Ireland? / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"Illusions commend themselves to us because they save us pain and allow us to enjoy pleasure instead. We must therefore accept it without complaint when they sometimes collide with a bit of reality against which they are dashed to pieces."

– Sigmund Freud

Let me introduce Mauldin's Rule of Thumb Concerning Unintended Consequences:

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Interest-Rates

Friday, March 02, 2012

The Greek Bailout, the CDS Market, and the End of the World / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleShah Gilani writes: A not-so-funny thing happened on the way to the latest Greek bailout.

The terms and conditions of the bond swap Greece agreed to before getting another handout constitutes a theoretical default - but not a technical default.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, February 28, 2012

A Primer on the Euro Breakup: Debt Default, Exit and Devaluation as the Optimal Solution / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIt's one thing to say that peripheral eurozone countries are better off leaving the euro, but how, exactly? And how severe can we expect the consequences to be, not only for those nations but also for the entire eurozone – and for the rest of us, worldwide? To minimize fallout from the event(s), it would be helpful to have a solid foundation, based on an historical understanding of similar events, on which we could build a reasonable set of expectations.

In the following piece, Jonathan Tepper, my Endgamecoauthor, gives us the cornerstone of just such a foundation. With his London firm, Variant Perception, he has prepared a 53-page report with the very confident title "A Primer on the Euro Breakup: Default, Exit and Devaluation as the Optimal Solution."

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Interest-Rates

Monday, February 27, 2012

Short Term Interest Rates and Their Implications, Under the Radar / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Tony_Caldaro

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhen a potental economic downturn is first sensed investors gradually start to shift into what is perceived as safe assets, namely Treasury bills, notes and bonds. As more and more investors pick up on this scenario a trend begins to appear. When economic data starts to confirm the downturn, the shift to safety turns into a long term trend and rates drop substantially. The opposite, of course, occurs during an economic upturn. When this occurs investors gradually shift out of the Treasury safe haven, and rates begin to rise. The initial shift, in both situations, is quite subtle, but measurable. We track these events using the 1 year T-bill.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, February 27, 2012

To QE or Not to QE That is The Question / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Tony_Pallotta

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Fed does not like to surprise the markets. They telegraph policy changes well in advance. The coded language of Alan Greenspan has been replaced with plain english and press conferences under Bernanke. The Fed's monetary policy may be questionable but their strategy of being more transparent to the market has improved albeit far from perfect.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, February 27, 2012

The Way Forward for Greece / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: Submissions

Alasdair Macleod writes: Last Monday night, before the US markets opened after President’s Day, bailout terms for Greece were announced. The detail is secondary to assessing whether or not it will work, or whether only a little time has been bought. Theoretically the deal can work, but it is extremely unlikely that it will. Almost everyone knows or suspects this, but the survival of the European political system is at stake, and this systemic priority is more important than hard economic reality.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, February 25, 2012

Our Depraved Future of Debt Slavery (Part II) / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Ashvin_Pandurangi

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"Debt" has been used as a means of slavery throughout human history, in ancient societies dating as far back as thousands of years ago, such as those in Mesopotamia, Egypt, North/South America, etc. Debtors in these societies would be forced to relinquish their crops, land, freedom and even their wives and children to satisfy unpaid debts. Such extravagant periods of debt creation often culminated in the necessity for systemic debt forgiveness (or "Jubilee") by the decree of chiefs, emperors and kings to simply maintain some sense of social order [see Debt: The First 5000 years].

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, February 23, 2012

Investing in Mortgages Makes Sense While Fed Supresses Yields / Interest-Rates / Mortgages

By: Bloomberg

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticlePIMCO founder and co-CIO Bill Gross spoke with Bloomberg Television's Trish Regan, Lisa Murphy and Adam Johnson today about where to invest, the ETF PIMCO is launching next week and the state of the economy.

Gross said that investing in "mortgages make sense" as "yields are not going anywhere for the next two or three years."

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, February 23, 2012

Solar Cycles And Astro Trading / Interest-Rates / Learn to Trade

By: John_Hampson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere is one (and only one) strand of scientific theory that gives astro trading credibility (astro traders typically operate without reference to science or logical reasoning, and more on faith, which doesn’t sit well with me), namely that planetary alignment influences solar activity (which in turn influences the financial markets through sunspots and geomagnetism), so is there any evidence for this?

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, February 23, 2012

Low Interest Rates, Economic Kill or Cure? / Interest-Rates / Inflation

By: Adrian_Ash

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleHold still! This might sting a little...

"TREATING serious medical conditions often has unwanted side effects," said Charles Bean, deputy governor of the Bank of England and a doctor of economics, in a speech in Glasgow on Tuesday.

"But, unpleasant as those side effects sometimes are, treatment is invariably better than the alternative. So it is with the economic medicine of low interest rates and quantitative easing."

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, February 19, 2012

The Cancer of Debt and Deficits / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWe are coming to the point in the United States when even the US government will no longer be able to borrow at very low long-term rates. That point is a few years off, and we have time to change paths; but as I have shown in previous letters, the longer we wait to get the deficit under control, the fewer choices we have and the more painful they are. NO country can run deficits the size we are currently running, along with unfunded deficits over four times the size of the economy and a growing overall debt burden, without consequences. At some point, investors in bonds will start wondering exactly what the process is by which they will be repaid. And what will the value of those future payments be?

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, February 16, 2012

Investors Turn to TIPS as Warren Buffett Warns on Inflation / Interest-Rates / Inflation

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDon Miller writes: Warren Buffett last week did more than warn investors on the dangers of low interest rates and inflation.

The Oracle of Omaha also had harsh words for traditional bonds.

In a Fortune article Buffett went so far as to say, "Right now bonds should come with a warning label."

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, February 15, 2012

FOMC Meeting: Divided House about Additional Quantitative Easing / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Asha_Bangalore

The minutes of the FOMC meeting of January 24-25 presented a range of opinions about whether further monetary accommodation through asset purchases (QE3) is necessary. At one end of the spectrum, “a few members observed that, in their judgment, current and prospective economic conditions – including elevated unemployment and inflation at or below the Committee’s objective – could initiate the purchases of additional securities before long.” A more qualified position was held by other members who indicated that “such policy action would become necessary if the economy lost momentum or inflation seemed likely to remain below is mandate consistent rate of 2 percent in the medium run.” In stark contrast to these two opinions that suggest an inclination toward additional asset purchases or QE3, on member viewed maintaining the current extent of monetary accommodation more than the near term as “inappropriate.”

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, February 15, 2012

The Lesson of "Half-Hearted" QE Money Printing / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Adrian_Ash

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleTake 40 trillion Yen, add another 22 trillion, and you still aren't doing enough!

SO HOW MUCH quantitative easing is enough quantitative easing?

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Interest-Rates

Monday, February 13, 2012

What Does the Bank of England Think It's Doing? / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Adrian_Ash

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleQuantitative easing has not worked as advertised so far. Why push ahead with more...?

"YOU'VE lost control – Bank of England takes over," says the Bank of England's cute little game for school-kids if you let the hot-air balloon you control crash into the ground, rather than happily floating it around the 2.0% annual inflation target.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, February 13, 2012

Bullish Set-up for Treasury Bonds TLT ETF / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Paulenoff

My near- and intermediate-term work indicate that the iShares Barclays 20 Year Treasury ETF (TLT) established a significant corrective low at 114.62 on Feb 9 and that since then the price structure is doing the work to create a powerfully bullish technical set-up that should propel it towards 120 in a hurry.

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