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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Wednesday, September 12, 2007

Rise in Mortgage Interest Rates To Impact UK House Prices / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The ongoing credit crunch continued to bite into the mortgage banking sector as two large UK banks announced a rise in their mortgage interest rates, this despite the Bank of England pumping extra liquidity into the money markets and continuing signs that UK Interest Rates have peaked.

Both the Abbey and Halifax have announced rises in their tracker mortgage interest rates of .2% for new borrowers. Other financial institutions are expected to follow suit with further rises expected later this year and into 2008.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, September 12, 2007

Central Banks Reaction to the Credit Crunch - Fraud and Folly / Interest-Rates / Credit Crunch

By: Adrian_Ash

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"...Given how the Fed has reacted to the credit crunch so far, a Nobel Prize for Dr. Bernanke now seems out of the question..."

"IT IS A FRAUD to accept what you cannot repay," said Publilius Syrus way back in the first century BC.

But Syrus was merely a Roman hack...and a freed slave to boot. So what would he know about collateralized loan obligations? No more or less than today's Bank of England , perhaps.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, September 11, 2007

US Heads for Recession as Foreign Investors Rush for the Exit from US Dollar Holdings / Interest-Rates / Credit Crunch

By: Mike_Whitney

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"Credit booms do not end in inflation as most people believe. Credit booms ARE inflation that end in deflation. This credit boom is not any different. ”   Mike Shedlock , “Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis”  

The days of the dollar as the world's “reserve currency” may be drawing to a close. In August, foreign central banks and governments dumped a whopping 3.8% of their holdings of US debt. Rising unemployment and the ongoing housing slump have triggered fears of a recession sending wary foreign investors running for the exits. China, Japan and Taiwan have been leading the sell off which has caused the steepest decline since 1992.  

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, September 11, 2007

Would You Rather Have a Interest Rate Cut or a Strong Economy? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Hans_Wagner

Many investors seeking to beat the market are expecting a Federal Funds rate cut on September 18, 2007 as the Fed Funds Futures market is predicting at least a 25 basis point decrease. Also, it is likely that the rate cut has already been factored into the stock market. Recently, instead of focusing on the strength of the economy and the level of inflation, investors have become so enthralled with a rate cut that they are acting irrationally. When there is good economic news the market goes down. On the other hand the market goes up when the news is considered bad for the economy.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, September 11, 2007

Central Banks Panic Buying Toxic Bonds As Credit Crunch Looms / Interest-Rates / Credit Crunch

By: Gerard_Jackson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIt appears to be increasingly evident that the recent turmoil in the financial markets was not an aberration. John McFarlane, former ANZ chief executive, noted that 30-day bank bills were rising. Last week the bill rate exceeded 7 per cent as against the cash rate of 6.5 per cent, giving it a premium of 0.5 per cent. It was also reported that the banking system has been importing billions of dollars to cover its exposure. The same thing is apparently happening overseas.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, September 10, 2007

Fed Expected to Cut Interest Rates As US Recession Looms / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: John_Mauldin

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis week in Outside the Box, good friend Paul McCulley of PIMCO fame addresses the important topic of fed fund easing. Paul addresses the predicament the current Fed finds itself in on account of not wanting to bail out those who took excessive risk in what he dubs the "shadow banking system," - comprising an alphabet soup of levered non-bank investment conduits, vehicles, and structures. The crux of the matter as Paul highlights is that the 50bp discount rate reduction still remains a penalty to the Fed Funds rate, hence simply not an attractive source of funding for real banks, who have access to the Fed funds rate.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, September 10, 2007

Fed September Meeting is Bernanke's Test / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: David_Urban

The September Federal Reserve meeting becomes a major test for Bernanke's reign as chairman. Wall Street responded positively to the discount rate cut but now the addict that we described earlier will be looking for its next fix. It wants it drug and that drug is liquidity. Since the cut, central banks worldwide have injected more than $300 billion dollars of liquidity into their banking systems through repurchase agreements and other arrangements. This tells me that the problems are not over. They have only moved the liquidity crisis to the backburner hoping, like in March, it corrects itself.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, September 09, 2007

Housing Market Impact on the US Economy, Should the Fed Cut Interest Rates? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: John_Mauldin

In this issue:
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Shocker in the Employment Numbers
Should the Federal Reserve Cut Interest Rates?
Will A Cut Make Any Difference?
How Housing Woes Hurt the Rest of the Economy
Home Again, Home Again

The unemployment numbers came in today, and if you look under the hood of the data, it is worse than the headline loss of 4,000 jobs. Should the Fed cut the interest rates in two weeks? Will it make a difference? Are we headed into recession (as predicted here in my January 2007 forecast issue)? When do we see a bottom in the housing market? Are we there yet? We look at all this and more. It should make for an interesting letter, if I can get my jet-lagged body to cooperate.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, September 08, 2007

Will the Fed Continue to Cut US Interest Rates? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Tim_Wood

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIt seems like the hot debate on the upcoming Fed meeting is whether or not they will cut the discount rate. Given that we had a cut in August, I'm not sure if we will see another cut in September. But, I can tell you that at present the charts do in fact say that we have entered into an environment in which rates will continue to be cut over the longer-term. Here's why.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, September 06, 2007

Gold and Subprime US Dollar Backlash / Interest-Rates / Subprime Mortgage Risks

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA certain nerve has been struck a few times in recent reading on my part by the description of the USDollar as a subprime currency. How true!!! When a debtor has poor credit history, inadequate income, and shoddy assets, the borrower is deemed to be subprime, which means less than good, not up to snuff, of second rate standard. The entire world is growing in its disgust for having been defrauded. While US banking and economic leaders are smugly claiming containment of the problem, foreign officials are acting according to the opposite conclusion. Every single denial of the problem, whether from press pundits, corporate titans, banking officials, government ministers, agency heads, trade representatives, and central bankers, has been incorrect.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, September 06, 2007

The Bank of England to the Rescue - The Threadneedle Hotline / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates

By: Adrian_Ash

"...The lowest interest rates for 40 years! Employment at a record high! More debt per working family than any other people in history..."

THE BANK OF ENGLAND chose not to raise Sterling base rates on Thursday, despite the UK money supply growing at a two-decade record.

It also made fresh short-term loans available to London 's illiquid money market. But might the UK authorities be considering a more "prudent" response to the credit crunch, too?

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, September 06, 2007

UK Interest Rates on Hold at 5.75% As Financial Sector Crash Continues / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Bank of England kept interest rates on hold at 5.75%, the move was widely expected as the credit crunch continued to hit the financial sector which has seen sharp drops in stock prices of financial institutions such as Northern Rock as the credit crunch increases financing costs across the sector. This was evidenced by the recent surge in the inter bank LIBOR rate which resulted in the Bank of England to provide additional liquidity.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, September 05, 2007

Bernanke and Bush on Subprime Credit Crunch / Interest-Rates / Credit Crunch

By: David_Urban

Friday was a big day as the markets expected confirmation of a September rate cut in Bernanke's Jackson Hole speech. What they got was confirmation that the Fed is monitoring the situation and stands ready to act if the housing meltdown spills over into the general economy.

‘It is not the responsibility of the Federal Reserve –nor would it be appropriate – to protect lenders and investors from the consequences of their financial decisions. But developments in financial markets can have broad economic effects felt by many outside the markets, and the Federal Reserve must take those effects into account when determining policy.' Bernanke told the markets that it is not the Federal Reserve's job to bail out speculators but they will act if there is a spillover into the general economy.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, September 05, 2007

Fed Wants Mortgage Lenders to Ease Terms and Delay Foreclosures / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Adrian_Ash

Hit to the Head with a Two-by-Four

"...The Fed wants mortgage lenders to ease their terms and delay foreclosures. Yet it's just capped new lending at six state-chartered banks, hoping to restore their 'financial soundness'..."

BUSY DOING NOTHING about asset-price bubbles until after they burst, the Federal Reserve has still been chiding no end of miscreant banks, foreign firms, lenders and brokerages about fraud and money-laundering since the Dot Com Bubble burst.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, September 04, 2007

Analysis of Credit Markets Turmoil - Vectors of Credit / Interest-Rates / Credit Crunch

By: John_Mauldin

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe credit markets are in turmoil. This week I have asked Michael Lewitt of Harch Capital in Florida to tell us what is going on from his perspective. Michael has been watching the credit markets from the inside for a long time. So, this week we have a sort of insider's Outside the Box.

Michael is one smart guy with a deep understanding of the markets, especially the credit markets, and how they work. I really look forward each month to getting Michael's insights. The firm manages domestic and offshore debt and equity hedge funds and separate accounts. This may get more technical for some readers, but keep reading, as you can get a sense of what we are really facing.

John Mauldin
Editor, Outside the Box

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Interest-Rates

Friday, August 31, 2007

Gold Prices & Leasing Rates Jump as Bush Moves to Rescue Sub-Prime Housing / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Adrian_Ash

Treasury Bond Holders Face Surge in Supply

SPOT GOLD PRICES rose strongly throughout the Asian and early London sessions on Friday, gaining nearly $5 per ounce to reach a new high for the week, as President Bush announced a rescue package for subprime US home buyers.

Effectively offering to nationalize the mortgage market for low- and no-income borrowers, Bush's bail-out plan is likely to force a steep increase in US bond issuance. The "safe haven" of choice for large investment institutions during the turmoil in this month's credit markets, Treasury bonds now risk serious, long-term inflation.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, August 28, 2007

The Ongoing Impact of the US Housing Sector / Interest-Rates / Credit Crunch

By: John_Mauldin

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWho should we blame for the problems in the credit markets? This week in Outside the Box my good friend Barry Ritholtz takes on the task of pointing his prodigious finger at the guilty parties. As he notes, there is plenty of guilt to go around. This is a problem that is going to stay with us more than a few weeks. As I wrote last week, it is not a problem of liquidity. It is a problem of credibility. Until investors of all types feel safe getting back into the structured finance market water, US mortgages and all sorts of consumer finance are going to be severely hobbled. There is plenty of money on the sidelines, but it is going to take some work to make investors feel comfortable.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, August 27, 2007

US Fed - A "Slow Motion Train Wreck" / Interest-Rates / Global Financial System

By: Stephen_Lendman

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThese days, financial/market punditry seems to follow two opposite lines of thinking. It ranges from the predominant view that world economies are growing and sound, problems in them minor and fixable, and current volatility (aka turmoil) is corrective, normal and a healthy reassessing and repricing of risk. Contrarians, on the other hand, believe the sky is falling. Most often, extreme views like these turn out wrong and are best avoided. Things are never that simple and hindsight usually proves only Cassandra was good at forecasting although calling market tops and bottoms wasn't her specialty.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, August 24, 2007

US Fed - Write Some Checks! Bail 'Em Out! / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Adrian_Ash

"There are more tears shed over answered prayers than over unanswered prayers..." - Teresa of Ávila, patron saint of headache sufferers

BE CAREFUL what you wish for. The entire US Treasury market is betting the Fed will cut rates in September. Goldman Sachs expects rates to finish the year at 4.5%, fully 75-points lower from here.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, August 24, 2007

More Upside for US Treasuries / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Paulenoff

The Lehman 20-year Treasury Bond ETF (AMEX: TLT) continues to grind to new 4-month highs….See our recent daily chart, in which we note that our near and intermediate-term work continue to "warn" us to expect another surge in the TLT that thrusts prices towards 89, which appears to be gaining upside strength as we speak. The weakness in the equity indices hardly can be considered acute, yet the long end of the yield curve is ratching down (lower rates) to reflect expectations of…what?

An economic slowdown?

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