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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Friday, February 19, 2010

Is all this Fed Central Bank Exit Strategy Talk Warranted? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Tim_Iacono

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBoy, for a group of policymakers at the nation's central bank who, in a best case scenario, are going to just sit on their hands for at least the rest of the year, there sure has been a lot of talk about an "exit strategy".

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, February 17, 2010

Are US Treasury Bonds About to Rally or Implode? Part2 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Graham_Summers

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBack in October I wrote a piece, Are US Treasuries About to Rally or Implode?  At that time, I noted that the chart for long-term US debt was forming what could have either been a challenge to long-term support, or a potential head and shoulders pattern.

The main idea was that the market was about to tell us whether or not investors considered US Treasuries a safe-haven anymore. If they did, long-term debt would rally. If they didn’t the potential head and shoulders pattern would be confirmed by a break below the “neckline” which would trigger a major sell-off.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, February 17, 2010

The Municipal Bond Crisis Is About to Begin / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2010

By: Graham_Summers

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThus ends one more safehaven.

For decades municipal bonds have been considered one of the safest income plays on the planet. If you’re unfamiliar with these investments, municipal bonds or muni bonds as they’re commonly called, are bonds issued by lower tier governments (state, city, or even county) to raise capital for public projects like building a highway, sewer, or what have you.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, February 17, 2010

U.S. Treasury Bonds TLT and IEF Update / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Guy_Lerner

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOne month ago, I looked at US Treasury bonds, and I was a bit more constructive than I had been in the prior 12 months. Technically, it had appeared that TLT and IEF had made reversals. So what has happened?

Absolutely nothing! Bonds have yet to get off their back and move higher. On the other hand, they have not moved lower. Do I get any points for that?

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, February 17, 2010

The End of Low Interest Rates Is Near / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Francois_Soto

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLong Term Interest Rates To Double By 2020
We believe 10-Year U.S. Treasuries Government Yield is going to double over the next decade to eventually reach 10% by 2020. This prediction seems quite nonsensical as interest rates are hovering at their lowest level but secular financial environment changes occur most of the time when market participants are expecting it the least... And this might just be the case with long term interest rates!

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, February 16, 2010

Fed Chooses to Exit through Eye of Needle / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Michael_Pento

Ben Bernanke is making sure the Fed’s exit strategy goes as easily as a camel can pass through the eye of a needle. Instead of choosing to just sell assets and unwind the amount of securities it holds, the Fed chairman is seeking to be creative once again—as he was in the buildup of its balance sheet--and increase the amount of interest it pays on excess reserves. He said this in a prepared statement for the House Financial Services Committee that was released on Wednesday, “It is possible that the Federal Reserve could for a time use the interest rate paid on reserves, in combination with targets for reserve quantities, as a guide to its policy stance, while simultaneously monitoring a range of market rates.”

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Interest-Rates

Monday, February 15, 2010

Credit Card Interest Rates Hit 12 Year High Despite 0.5% Base Rate / Interest-Rates / Credit Cards & Scoring

By: MoneyFacts

Increased competition in the credit card market at the end of the 1990s meant rates started to fall, dropping to their lowest level in 2006.

Since 2006 as the economic downturn took hold, credit card rates have steadily increased, with the average rate today hitting a 12 year high of 18.8%.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, February 14, 2010

Niall Ferguson: A Greek Debt Crisis is Coming to America / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Trader_Mark

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOh that Niall!  Always stirring up trouble... Today might be the most entertaining set of posts I've ever put together - what a smorgasbord. Today we have an editorial in the Financial Times raising many of the same issues we speak out weekly in these virtual pages.  Don't forget your own homeland Mr. Ferguson; it's a mini US but without the reserve currency - this "grand experiment" of fighting debt with more debt should show up on your shores before ours.  The only thing that separates our 2 nations from the Greeks on a fiscal basis, is the printing press.  [Feb 5, 2010: Sovereign Risk Chart - Where Would the US Fit in, on Europe's Scale?]

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, February 14, 2010

U.S. Treasury Bond Debt Auctions on a Trend to Failure? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Fresbee

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe latest 30 year bond auction have been disappointing with some already terming it as a failure. This is an opportune time to analyse the trends in bond markets. There is almost a pall of gloom across the many who understand bond market mechanics and we will try to break down two of the most important auctions: 30 year and 10 year auctions, to see the trend and patterns in results. Quoting from Reuters on the latest 30 Year auction:

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Interest-Rates

Friday, February 12, 2010

Forget Greece, the US Almost Had a Failed Treasury Bond Auction / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Graham_Summers

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhile most of the investment world focuses on the various ”senior officials” (none of whom seem to have actual names or positions) commenting on whether Greece will or will not be bailed out/ receive an emergency loan/ offered moral support, etc, a far more significant debt story is emerging in the US.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, February 12, 2010

U.S. Real Estate Market and Interest Rates in 2010 and Beyond / Interest-Rates / US Housing

By: Mike_Larson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLast week’s World MoneyShow in Orlando was a huge success! I had the pleasure of meeting several of you at the Gaylord Palms Hotel, and I couldn’t have been happier with the constructive feedback you shared.

But I also know that not everyone could make the trek. And I don’t want to leave you out in the cold!

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, February 11, 2010

Not All UK Fixed Rate Mortgages Are Decreasing / Interest-Rates / Mortgages

By: MoneyFacts

Latest Moneyfacts.co.uk figures show that while fixed mortgage rates are falling, they are only doing so for those with significant equity.

The average two year fixed rate for a borrower with a 10% deposit has increased steadily since April 2009, now standing at 6.48%, the highest level since December 2008.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, February 11, 2010

Plausible Sovereign Debt Default On A Global Scale / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis

By: Dian_L_Chu

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn a CNBC interview on Feb. 10, Marc Faber of Gloom, Boom & Doom Report went out on a limb by stating that he is not buying any sovereign debt or bonds, because ALL governments will eventually default, including the United States.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, February 10, 2010

California Debt Crisis, Muni Bonds At Real Risk of Default / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Richard_Shaw

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCalifornia’s finances are a mess.  Credit default swap rates put California among the top ten most likely to default among major governments worldwide.

If you are a California resident and think California can solve it’s own budget problems, or if you think the US government will bail them out, then you might want to own California municipal bonds for the best fit tax shelter and the higher nominal yield.  However, if you doubt either of those, you may be better off owning a national or non-California muni fund, and accept a less tax efficient holding with a somewhat lower nominal yield, but with superior credit quality.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, February 09, 2010

What Do Rising Sovereign Debt, Credit Default Swaps Mean? / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis

By: Washingtons_Blog

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleRolfe Winkler argues that - in the short-run - the PIIGS countries (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) will slash their budgets and get bailed out by the EU.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, February 09, 2010

Front-Running the Fed in the Treasury Market, There's No Business Like Bond Business / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Professor_Emeritus

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFor some nine years I have been predicting that the economy is going to a recession morphing into a depression, using a purely theoretical argument. The essence of my argument is that the open market operations of the Fed cause a protracted decline in interest rates which is responsible for the hard-to-detect capital destruction affecting the financial sector no less than the productive sector. The immediate cause of the depression is the destruction of capital. The ultimate cause is the monetary policy of open market operations. The chain of causation is as follows.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, February 08, 2010

ECB in a Fix, Trichet is as Chill as Ever! / Interest-Rates / ECB Interest Rates

By: Vishal_Damor

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleTrichet is one of the stalwarts of the economic crisis of 2008. He steered the EU economy through one of the most difficult eras after its creation and yet has maintained one of the cleanest balance sheet (Deficit 6% of GDP: one can almost mistake it for China or India Balance sheet).

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, February 06, 2010

E.U. Government Bonds are STILL the Safest Bet / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market

By: Vishal_Damor

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWell you will not hear that too often. Will you? At a time when markets are ravaging the hapless Greece government into complete submission, PIGS as a basket is being slaughtered mercilessly in the bond markets, Euro has now tumbled a mind boggling 1500 pips from its peak of 1.524, it is important to step above the markets and take a deep breadth on where exactly are we in the much hyped sovereign bond risk.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, February 04, 2010

Portugal's Debt Costs Rise to 11 Month High / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis

By: Trader_Mark

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAnother reason to like the dollar (v the Euro) in the near term is the realization that quite a few member states of the European Union are in a word (BLEEP)'ed!  The irony is the United States is in just as bad of shape; in fact California has the same credit rating as Greece.  But the world still regards the US as the safe haven - even though when you put our unfunded liabilities on the balance sheet we are in horrific shape.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, February 03, 2010

Greece Part of Unfolding Global Sovereign Debt Crisis 2010 / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI wrote about Greece in last week's letter. Then I ran across this column in the Financial Times by my friend Mohammed El-Erian, chief executive of Pimco, and someone who qualifies to be introduced as one of the smartest men on the planet. It is short and to the point. ( www.pimco.com)

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