Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Spike High for Treasuries / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Based on my near- and intermediate-term work, the patter and momentum configuration in the iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas Bond ETF (TLT) argue that the price structure hit a spike high this morning at 109.50, reflecting the flight to safety surge in buying of US Treasury paper despite the puny yields.
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Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Why Are You Buying a Stinkin' Bond Fund Now? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: DailyWealth
Dr. Steve Sjuggerud writes: You're guilty... You're busted.
But it's not just you... Everybody is doing it. Everybody is buying bond funds.
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Is the U.S. Treassury Bond Bubble About to Burst? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Money_Morning
Jason Simpkins writes:
Bonds have provided a welcome safe-haven for investors seeking shelter from the financial maelstrom of the past two years. But now many analysts fear bonds have entered bubble territory and pose a rising threat to their holders.
The amount of money flowing into bonds is "probably not sustainable on a consistent basis" Joel Levington, managing director of corporate credit at Brookfield Investment Management Inc., told Bloomberg News. "Eventually it won't be sustainable. Whether that means five years from now or five weeks is a little difficult to tell."
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Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Self Fulfilling Prophecy: The U.S. Treasury Bond Trade / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Dian_L_Chu
The 10 year T-Note is currently yielding 2.5%, and the Fed`s latest quantitative easing initiative is becoming counterproductive to their stated purpose of trying to stimulate the economy by encouraging more risk taking, i.e., private capital utilization seeking attractive return on investment opportunities. The issue is that Mr. Ben Bernanke and the Fed governors although great academicians have failed to take account for how traders and financial markets impact and take advantage of Fed policy.
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
The True U.S. National Debt / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: James_Quinn
When I read Paul Krugman and the other Keynesian boneheads saying that our debt is not a problem, they quote figures about our debt of $13.3 trillion versus our GDP of $14.6 trillion not being so bad. That is only 91% of GDP. They point to World War II when our national debt reached 120% of GDP. They say everything worked out after that.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
At Least Be Aware Of The Current Risk In Treasury Bonds! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Sy_Harding
Money continues to pour into bonds at a ferocious pace, with investors confident they are a safe and conservative holding in the midst of all the economic and stock market uncertainty.
With last week’s further rally, the 30-year Treasury bond had its biggest weekly gain in price since May, pushing their yield down to just 3.66%. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was pushed down to 2.61%, while the yield on two-year notes fell to 0.496%.
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
U.S. Treasury Bonds, The Fed's Biggest Bubble / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Michael_Pento
I've made a living out of exposing economic fallacies, but there's one whale that I can't seem to harpoon. Even top-flight Wall Street analysts seem to believe that the Fed's doubling of the monetary base after the credit crunch has not had an inflationary impact on our economy. Their logic can be summed up like so: "The money the Fed created and dropped from helicopters has all been caught in the trees." In other words, the Fed is creating money, but it is just being held as excess reserves by the banking system instead of being loaned to the public. Therefore, the money supply hasn't truly increased, there is no money multiplier effect, and aggregate price levels are behaving themselves.
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Tuesday, August 24, 2010
Why US Treasury Notes Will Eventually Yield Nothing / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Barry_M_Ferguson
For all investors seeking income, I have some bad news for you. US Treasury notes and bonds will eventually yield nothing. That’s right, I said it. “Zero percent interest coupons”. Many pundits would argue the opposite. And yes, the argument for higher interest coupons in the future is valid and sound. The US is currently following a strategy of debt destruction such that as I write, the nation is closing in on $13.5 trillion in debt. To see the number is quite startling. It is: $13,500,000,000,000.00. Mercy! The number is so large, most calculators can’t account for all the numeric placeholders. The number is so large, we now round up by hundred billions. The number is so large, the late astronomer, Carl Sagan, referred to really large numbers as “billions and billions”.
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
A U.S. Treasury Bond Bubble? Not Likely! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Guy_Lerner
My thoughts on the bond bubble can be summarized in two words: "not likely". When commentators have to tell you it is a bubble, it isn't a bubble. Or to put this in another context, name me one market top in the last 10 years where the commentators on CNBC where not imploring their audience to buy at the top. If anything, the commentators have this aura of incredulousness. "How dare bonds head higher and stocks head lower. Doesn't everyone know how undervalued equities are?" When CNBC throws in the towel and when they utter those famous words - "is it to late to buy now?" - then we can consider the possibility of a bond bubble.
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
Bill Gross Pushing for MORE Bailouts for PIMCO Bond Fund / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Stathis
Two years ago when Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were collapsing, former Goldman Sachs CEO and U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson repeated the promise of “no more bailouts,” so as to calm worried Americans who feared they would be on the hook for hundreds of billions of dollars of toxic mortgages held by these GSEs.
Monday, August 23, 2010
What Does Debt-Based Money Imply for Interest Payments? / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Robert_Murphy
In a previous article, I explained the sense in which our fractional-reserve, fiat financial system is built upon debt-based money. In this perverse arrangement, new dollars come into existence through the creation of government and private debt. Going the other way, if the private sector and the federal government ever began seriously paying down their debts, the supply of US dollars would shrink.
Sunday, August 22, 2010
U.S. Treasury Bond Market Continues to Power Ahead / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The long bond futures moved up another couple of points as the fundamental backdrop looks to be increasingly dire. In spite of the bullish bias of equity options expiry week, stocks struggled mightily last week as the stocks to bonds investment flows gained momentum. We are back to the risk versus safe haven trade as the US Dollar and bonds benefitted from their perceived safe haven status.
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Thursday, August 19, 2010
The Utility of Debt / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
For many, debt is a burden. For many others, it's a utility to be respected. Regardless of which position you take, realize that there are some situations in which debt is beneficial - and others where it's just dangerous. For the US Government, debt is now just simply dangerous.
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Wednesday, August 18, 2010
U.S. Treasury Bonds Inverse Chart, If This Were A Stock.... / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Guy_Lerner
See figure 1 a weekly price chart. The 40 week moving average (i.e, red line) is heading higher, and prices are trading above key pivot points, which are areas of support (buying) and resistance (selling). In essence, this is a "beautiful" chart with lots of momentum (i.e., note the breakout gaps). If this were a stock, the analysts and pundits would be all over the "breakout" ---blah, blah, blah.
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Tuesday, August 17, 2010
U.S. Treasury Bonds vs Dow Jones 30 Yield Analysis / Interest-Rates / Investing 2010
By: Dian_L_Chu
Government bonds across the globe are benefiting from concern about anemic economic growth, the risk of deflation in the US, and the Federal Reserve’s decision to reinvest maturing bonds and buy US Treasuries. Yields on Japanese, German, UK and US government bonds fell to fresh multi-month and, in some cases, all-time lows.
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
This Market Just Flashed a Huge Warning Signal / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: DailyWealth
Tom Dyson writes: David Rosenberg calls it the smoking gun...
Rosenberg and I just spoke on the phone. You might not know his story, but David Rosenberg is a Wall Street legend.
Monday, August 16, 2010
Corporate Bonds, The Safest Source of High Income Today / Interest-Rates / Corporate Bonds
By: DailyWealth
Tom Dyson writes: What's the safest way to earn high income right now? You buy bonds...
American companies are absolutely loaded with cash. Take Microsoft, for example. It has $35 billion in cash and only $6 billion in debt. Accountants would say Microsoft has a net cash position of $29 billion.
Saturday, August 14, 2010
Quantitative Easing No Exit - Stage Left or Right / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Peter_Schiff
This week, national attention was fixated on JetBlue flight attendant Steven Slater, whose bold, creative, and controversial exit strategy could revitalize his future prospects. Not nearly as noticed was the Federal Reserve's decision on Tuesday to avoid finding an exit strategy for its own never-ending career trap. Unfortunately, the Fed's choices affect our lives much more than Slater's.
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Friday, August 13, 2010
QE2, Fed Policymakers Screw It Up Again! / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Mike_Larson
Albert Einstein famously defined insanity as doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. But apparently the message hasn’t gotten through to the folks in the Eccles Building in Washington. Because the Federal Reserve is at it again!
This week, policymakers met in D.C. and decided to fire up the printing presses. Led by “Helicopter Ben” Bernanke, they pledged to buy new Treasury securities whenever old Treasuries or mortgage securities matured or were paid off.
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Thursday, August 12, 2010
Hey DeLong! U.S. Treasury Bond Bubble Prices Do Not Justify Bubble Prices! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Brady_Willett
The U.S. government bond market is the last of the great asset bubbles. We know this, first and foremost, because no one in any position of power in America is willing, and perhaps more precisely able, to enact the painful policies required to ever repay current/future obligations - and yet the market does not, as yet, seem to care.