Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, September 19, 2010
Was Stagflation Really Hyperinflation? / Interest-Rates / HyperInflation
By: LewRockwell
Gonsalvo Lira writes: In his new post, Gonzalo Lira analyzes the Oil Shock of '79, and the subsequent run up in inflation. He comes to some interesting conclusions about 1979, and how those conclusions might apply to today, if and when there is a run on Treasuries. He writes: "In both 1979 and today, dollars were poised to chase after commodities, following a triggering event. In '79, it was the fall of the Shah of Iran. In 2010, we are waiting for our moment to exit the Treasuries bubble. Therefore, one can look at the events of '79–'82 as a dress rehearsal for what I think will happen today, and in the immediate future – if and when the Treasury bond bubble pops."
Thursday, September 16, 2010
U.S. Treasury TLT ETF Downmove Nearing Completion? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Let's have a look at the pattern that continues to unfold in the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT). Very interesting and tricky set-up in the TLTs now. Let's notice that it plunged to new lows at 100.85 for the decline off of the 8/25 high at 109.50 and in so doing has broken the Apr-Sep up trendline at 102.15 (for a second consecutive session).
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Thursday, September 16, 2010
Jim Rogers Warns, United States Biggest Debtor Nation in History / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Videos
United States is now the largest debtor nation , not in the world , in the history of the world...no country has ever run up so much debt as we have in the US , this is not just a problem for our children and grand children judge , this is a problem for you for me and our parents , you know this is a problem that is hitting all of us in the face right now , those guys in Washington just worry about the next election , they worry to make sure they'll stick around , they do not care about you , they do not care about me , they care about getting their next pay check and not whether the country survives....etc...
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
If You Own These Popular Income Investments, Watch Out / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: DailyWealth
Income investments are on fire right now...
Take the MLP sector as an example. MLP stands for "master limited partnership." It's a special corporate structure used by about 100 small companies – mostly natural gas pipelines. MLPs can make excellent dividend investments. You can usually expect to earn around 9% a year in dividends from them.
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
Covered Bonds Hybrid Debt Securitization: The Solution to America’s Economic Ills? / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2010
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes: When it comes to the global financial crisis and the Great Recession that followed, this could well be the ultimate irony: The Wall Street invention that got us into this mess may well be the only thing that can get us out.
I'm talking about securitization, a masterstroke of financial engineering in which assets are aggregated in order to reduce risk. Once heralded as the greatest financial innovation of modern times, abusive securitization practices instead generated a feeding frenzy of gross excesses that exponentially multiplied risk and drove the world to the brink of financial Armageddon.
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Tuesday, September 14, 2010
The Curse of Fiat Money, Preventing the Banking Industry from Shrinking / Interest-Rates / Fiat Currency
By: Thorsten_Polleit
It may come as a surprise to many, but the relative size of the US commercial-banking industry has not declined following the so-called credit-market crisis, which developed in the second half of 2007. On the contrary, it has increased since then. While nominal GDP rose 4.2% from the second quarter of 2007 to the second quarter of 2010, banks' total assets rose 18.4%.
Tuesday, September 14, 2010
UK Savers Hopes on Hold as Inflation Fails to Fall / Interest-Rates / Savings Accounts
By: MoneyFacts
Inflation figures released today show that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has remained unchanged at 3.10%, still way above the Government’s 2% target.
To stop their savings pot effectively eroding away, a basic rate tax payer needs to find an account paying 3.88%, while a higher rate tax payer needs to find an account offering 5.17%.
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Tuesday, September 14, 2010
Does the Fed Ultimately Control U.S. Interest Rates? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Michael_Pento
In forecasting the consequences of current economic policy, many pundits are downplaying the risks associated with the surging national debt and the rapid expansion of marketable Treasury securities. Their comfort stems from the belief that a staggering debt burden will be manageable as long as interest rates remain extremely low; and, as they believe the Fed is in complete control of setting rates across the yield curve, they see no danger of rates ever rising past the point of comfort. Those who subscribe to this fairy tale forget that, in real life, there are many more hands on the interest rate steering wheel.
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Tuesday, September 14, 2010
Americans Going Out with a Bang, Using Credit Cards They Can’t Pay Back / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Mac_Slavo
Peter Schiff joins the CNBC talking heads panel on Fast Money September 8, 2010. (Video follows excerpts and commentary)
As usual, Schiff is a bull on gold and precious metals commenting that silver “is going a lot higher.” Though he didn’t have a specific number in mind, he sees a likely and continued uptrend that can reach levels much higher than where it is today. “I think silver is going to go, ultimately, fifty dollars an ounce, a hundred dollars an ounce, who knows how high it can go?” forecasts Schiff.
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Monday, September 13, 2010
The Federal Reserve’s Next Moves … / Interest-Rates / Central Banks
By: Larry_Edelson
We are now entering a period of time that I’ve been warning you about. A time when the majority begins to recognize that the U.S. and European economies are both plunging deep under water, drowning in debt …
While at the same time, leaders in both the U.S. and Europe face political nightmares … financial markets going haywire … gold soaring through the roof … and central banks beginning, yet again, to pull out their big guns.
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Saturday, September 11, 2010
U.S. Monetary System is in Serious Trouble / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Bob_Chapman
There is no question the US monetary system is in serious trouble and the situation continues to deteriorate. The smug elitist owners of the system are not getting the desired results and there is great consternation among the players. Since 1913 in running US monetary policy the Fed has had one recession after another and two depressions. The second one is the one we are now in. The Fed’s creation was mainly to end recessions and depressions, something obviously they have been quite unsuccessful at.
Friday, September 10, 2010
Is This Where the U.S. Treasury Bond Market Gets Into Trouble? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Marty_Chenard
Bonds prices up, bond yields down. Bonds prices down, bond yields up.
This is an important day for watching bond yields, because the odds are now starting to increase for an upside move on bond yields ... and that would mean down movement on bond prices.
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Friday, September 10, 2010
TLTs Should Hold / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Let's notice that the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE: TLT) is testing the 102.00-101.80 area, which represents the lower channel support line off of the April low (87.30), as well as the mid-August upside breakaway gap area.
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Friday, September 10, 2010
Japanese Bonds Teeter on the Brink of a Big Bull Rally / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market
By: Seven_Days_Ahead
Over recent weeks the JGB has endured a reasonable pull-back, much like other bond markets, as equities staged a rally fuelled by:
- Bernanke’s recent pledge to ease further if the faltering US economic recovery continues to lose traction, and
- A better-than-expected US non-farm payroll report last Friday.
Friday, September 10, 2010
Investor Fixed Income Feeding Frenzy, Bond Markets Hoovering Up Cash / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Larson
More than a decade ago, investors speculated wildly in dot-com stocks. You don’t need me to remind you how that ended.
Then a half-decade ago, investors went hog wild in real estate. That didn’t work out so well, either.
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Friday, September 10, 2010
Making Money from Municipal Waste, Increasing Risk of States Bond Defaults / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Fred_Sheehan
Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, is defaulting; Half Moon Bay, California, is disincorporating; and the City of Miami, Florida, declared a "state of fiscal urgency," then broke contracts with workers. Yet, Pennsylvania, California, and Florida municipal bond funds managed by Blackrock are trading at or near 52-week highs.
Wednesday, September 08, 2010
Investor Shift from U.S. Treasury Bonds and into Gold and Commodities? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Gary_Dorsch
For the past decade, prices in Japan have been stable or fallen, in an economy where the central bank has pegged its overnight loan rate near zero-percent, and where 10-year bond yields haven’t climbed above 2-percent. Between 1991 and 1995, Tokyo spent $2.1-trillion on public works, in an economy that’s less than half the size of the United States, in order to lift its economy out of a severe downturn caused by the bursting of a real estate and stock market bubble in the early 1990’s.
Wednesday, September 08, 2010
Investors Searching for Yield: At Any Cost? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Kieran_Osborne
In an environment with historically low interest rates, fixed income investors have been pouring money into longer-duration securities, substituting 3 and 6 month T-Bills with 10-year Treasures or bond funds. To an extent, this should not be so surprising: the Federal Reserve’s (the Fed) extraordinary monetary policies have resulted in extremely low yields at the short end of the yield curve. Investors seeking yield have been forced out the yield curve or into increasingly risky investments in an attempt to gain higher investment returns. However, this is not a strategy without risks, both at the individual investor level and for the economy as a whole. Are the Fed’s monetary policies, combined with the government’s decision to issue increasing levels of longer duration debt, having the unintended consequence of stoking the fire for further financial stress?
Tuesday, September 07, 2010
I Guarantee You'll Lose Money in The U.S. Treasury Bond "Comfort Trap" / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: DailyWealth
Tom Dyson writes: You'll sleep soundly at night. Your neighbors won't laugh at you. Your pulse won't budge. But if you make this trade, I guarantee you'll lose money...
One year ago, I opened an essay with the paragraph above. Then I showed you why a certain trade was a foolish proposition, even though it appeared to be a "no brainer."
Saturday, September 04, 2010
Quantitative Easing QE2, Debt Created Out of Thin Air, Banking Crisis Worsens / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Bob_Chapman
In a futile attempt to keep the economic and financial system afloat, QE2 is underway. It began in early June as banks changed the rules for awarding loans. Their efforts over the past few months have only met with moderate success. Banks had cut back lending by some 25% over the past 16 months mainly to small and medium-sized companies. In the process the economy slowed down markedly and unemployment shot up to levels not seen since the 1930s. These first attempts to restart a sliding economy have so far not met with success. It was not long after that the real decision makers at the Fed that QE2 was going to be needed. We saw the marshalling of financial and economic forces and the tell tale sign of a stock market moving upward for unexplained reasons. That tipped us to QE2.