Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, August 12, 2010
Japanese Style Deflation Fear Strikes Global Bond Markets / Interest-Rates / Deflation
By: Gary_Dorsch
The US-economy has not experienced sustained deflation since the Great Depression of the 1930’s, when consumer prices fell 10% between 1929 and 1933. But Japan has been battling falling prices since 1995, – triggered by the bursting of the Nikkei-225 equity bubble, and a unrelenting slide in land prices. Central bankers and macro-economists from all corners of the earth have been studying Japan’s descent from its giddy economic prosperity in the 1980’s, and into the deflation trap in the 1990’s, that Tokyo’s financial warlords have still been unable to remedy.
Thursday, August 12, 2010
Gold and U.S. Treasury and Mortgage Bonds Naked Shorts As Liquidity Machine / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The article of July 22nd on "Smoking Guns of USTreasury Monetization" hit more desks, raised more dust, and brought more attention than expected to the grand fraud in progress using USGovt debt securities. The glaring actions continue without any hint of legal prosecution but deep foreign resentment among creditors as publicity mounts. Nobody appreciates counterfeit of the instruments held in great volume as supposed savings. The only counterfeit of honorable origin is of Microsoft products, since mostly stolen and surely not the output of in-house innovation.
Wednesday, August 11, 2010
Front Running the Fed Treasury Bond Purchase Announcement - Who Knew? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Shedlock
Curve Watchers Anonymous is paying close attention to the following snip from the Bloomberg article Pimco Calls Fed Rate Policies ‘Good for Risk Assets’
Read full article... Read full article...The central bank said in a separate statement that it will announce a purchasing schedule today and that its buying will be concentrated “in the two- to 10-year sector” of the maturity spectrum, though it will also buy other maturities as well as Treasury Inflation Protected Securities.
Wednesday, August 11, 2010
Impotent U.S. Fed 'Swings' Limp Appendage / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Alex_Wallenwein
Bernanke and the other Fed governors know they are out of bullets, and that even if they had any bullets left, there would be nothing to shoot them at. So, the next best policy option on August 10, 2010 was for them to at least appear to be doing “something” to assure financial markets and institutional investors that they could rest (in peace?) in the secure knowledge that, because the Fed is doing “something” at least, there must still be something it can do to make the economy all better.
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Wednesday, August 11, 2010
Credit Easing Goodbye, Quantitative Easing Ahoy! / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Axel_Merk
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has decided to reinvest any proceeds from maturing securities acquired through its $1.25 trillion mortgage-backed security (MBS) purchase program. The proceeds won't be invested in short-term, but in long-term Treasuries.
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Tuesday, August 10, 2010
Quantitative Easing Take II Into Uncharted Territory / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Mike_Shedlock
In response to Will Quantitative Easing Spur Inflation? Job Creation? Credit Expansion? Do Anything? (a point-by-point discussion of thoughts from Chris Ciovacco at Ciovacco Capital Management regarding quantitative easing), I received a nice reply from Chris.
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Monday, August 09, 2010
U.S. Treasury Bond Market Continues to Power Ahead / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The bond market continues to power ahead. The long bond futures tested the 130 level for the first time in 20 months and look set for a slight breather heading into the long auction cycle next week.
While stock investors seem to be oblivious of the mounting evidence of a significant deflationary loss of economic momentum (or maybe they just choose to ignore it on purpose), the Federal Reserve will get its chance to vocalize its concerns following their Policy Meeting scheduled for next Tuesday.
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Monday, August 09, 2010
Federal Reserve Magically Erasing Debts and Liabilities / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Richard_Daughty
Hossein Askari is a professor of international business and international affairs at George Washington University, and Noureddine Krichene is an economist with a PhD from UCLA, which I mention to establish their credentials, since some bozo from the Federal Reserve created a stir when he said, with a sniff of condescension and smugness, that nobody should comment about economics unless they have a PhD in economics from a “proper” university, because we unwashed huddled masses are “dangerous” and a “threat to society.”
Friday, August 06, 2010
UK Gilts Set to Drive Ahead / Interest-Rates / UK Debt
By: Seven_Days_Ahead
The Technical Trader’s view:
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Tuesday, August 03, 2010
Hedonic Adjustments and the Mulligans of Monetary Policy / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Richard_Daughty
I knew it was going to be "one of those days" when, on the very first fairway, this new guy Bob says that he thought my tee shot had landed over there behind those trees, and how he is surprised to see that my golf ball is now sitting on the fairway, and another twenty yards further towards the hole, too.
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Tuesday, August 03, 2010
Can the Fed Successfully Exit Liquidity Flood Policies ? / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2010
By: David_Howden
The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis recently interviewed macroeconomist Robert Hall for the June issue of its quarterly magazine, The Region. His words on the Federal Reserve's ability to enact an exit strategy to unwind its unconventional policies were clear and sure: "There are two branches to the exit strategy: There's paying interest on reserves, and there's reducing reserves back to normal levels. They're both completely safe, so it's a nonissue."
Monday, August 02, 2010
US Economic Outlook: Indebted to Death / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Richard_Daughty
John Stepek at MoneyWeek.com, talking about the “European bank stress tests” that were “a whitewash, of course” said that it kind of reminded him of “one of Gordon Brown’s budgets.”
My immediate reaction, of course, and speaking as a true American, is to ask, “Huh? Gordon who?” as a clever way of reminding these British guys that real Americans, like me, don’t know about anything, or care about anything, that is not about America and/or Americans and how it affects us, as Americans, but mostly me, personally, as an American.
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Sunday, August 01, 2010
Debt is Devouring Sovereign Nations, U.S. Deficit is being Monetized by the Fed / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Bob_Chapman
While we wait, watch and listen, the Fed decides when the banks will be given the word to start lending to get the domestic economy back to neutral. Action is needed quickly because the world economy is quickly deteriorating, and the recovery is simply not happening, as the administration admits to a fiscal deficit of $1.4 trillion. That would be down from a deficit of $1.9 trillion in 2009. Our long-term estimate has been $1.6 to $2 trillion.
Friday, July 30, 2010
New Upleg for TLT Treasury Bond ETF / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
This morning's surge in the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treas Bond (NYSE: TLT) reflects greater-than-expected economic deceleration from Q2 to the revised (higher) Q1, as well as disappointing figures for personal consumption, which has triggered a fierce bout of short-covering.
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Thursday, July 29, 2010
The Fed Flashes the Nuclear Quantitative Easing Trump Card / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Gary_Dorsch
Of ten people who hear the same story or speech, each one might understand it differently. Perhaps, only one of them will understand it correctly. On July 21st, Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke was speaking in riddles, as central bankers are apt to do, while delivering his testimony before Congress. Each word that’s uttered by the Fed chief is scrutinized by anxious speculators, who try to interpret the message correctly, before quickly placing bets in the marketplace.
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
European Banking Stress Test: Much Ado about Nothing / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2010
By: Claus_Vogt
On Friday the Committee of European Banking Supervisors (CEBS) revealed the results of its banking sector stress test. The objective of the test, in the CEBS’s dry words, was to “provide policy information for assessing the resilience of the EU banking system to possible adverse economic developments and to assess the ability of banks ( … ) to absorb possible shocks on credit and market risks, including sovereign risks.”
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Investors Beware of Municipal Bonds as Defaults Soar / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes: Of the speculative excesses that misguided monetary policy and a prolonged recession has caused, the one that poses the most danger to investor wealth is the financial bubble in state and local municipal bonds.
Municipal bonds - usually referred to as "munis" - are very popular portfolio plays because of tax advantages that, in effect, enhance their rates of return. There's also an allure because of their local nature: Investors can invest in specific bond issues that provided the money for projects such as schools, highways, bridges, hospitals or housing that actually affects the community in which the investor lives. That makes them a very tangible investment.
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Tuesday, July 27, 2010
The Unlimited Power of Suppressing the Interest Rate / Interest-Rates / Economic Theory
By: Thorsten_Polleit
Under today's fiat-money regimes, central banks, as a rule, control short-term interest rates. They do so by setting the interest rates on short-term loans extended to commercial banks (typically with maturities of one day, one week, two weeks, or one month).
Tuesday, July 27, 2010
Should the Fed Pump Even More Money? / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Frank_Shostak
Some Fed officials and various commentators, such as Professor Paul Krugman, are of the view that the US central bank should be ready to consider additional steps to boost the US economy in the wake of a visible softening in key economic data. For instance, the yearly rate of growth of retail sales, after climbing to 8.5% in March, have fallen to 4.8% in June. The ISM manufacturing purchasing manager's index (PMI) fell to 56.2 last month from 59.7 in May.
Tuesday, July 27, 2010
Will China Grab the Credit-Rating Business? / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2010
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes:
There's a new name in the credit-rating-agency business these days: It's Dagong Global Credit Rating Co. Ltd., and this Beijing-backed business is China's bid for a spot in the global-credit-rating oligopoly.
And Dagong's Chairman Guan Jianzhong doesn't think much of his long-established U.S. competitors.
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