Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, March 05, 2010
Prospects for U.S. Dollar Treasury Debt Exports / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Andrew_Butter
Prospects Not Good for What Was Once One of USA’s Greatest Export Success.
Beginning in the late nineties up to 2007 exports of debt (at that time mainly private sector “products”, now called “legacy” or “toxic”), was America’s biggest export category accounting for 21% of total exports (including debt) compared to 19% for Capital Goods (including autos and auto parts which were 4%).
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Friday, March 05, 2010
U.S. Negative Real Interest Rates, Case-Shiller CPI Now Tracking CPI-U / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Mike_Shedlock
It's been about 4-5 months since I last talked about Case-Shiller CPI (CS-CPI). Case-Shiller CPI is formulated by substituting the Case-Shiller housing index for Owner's Equivalent Rent (OER) in the CPI for all urban consumers (CPI-U) index, commonly shortened to CPI.
Thursday, March 04, 2010
Three ETFS to Protect From Rising Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Ron_Rowland
Wall Street is obsessed with interest rates. Many consumers are, too, especially anyone who wants to buy a home or car.
There’s a good reason for this: Debt — or you might call it “leverage” — is the lubricant that keeps the financial markets moving. Imagine a car without oil … it would soon grind to halt. The same is true of the modern economy.
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Thursday, March 04, 2010
ECB - Greece is Convincing / Interest-Rates / ECB Interest Rates
By: Axel_Merk
At its monthly press conference, European Central Bank (ECB) President Trichet announced a further gradual reduction of emergency lending facilities. Focus of the meeting was the fiscal austerity package passed by Greece's parliament the previous day. Unlike previous commentaries, Trichet was full of praise for Greece, saying it was "extremely important that the decisions taken by Greece could be convincing because they would credibilize [sic] the adjustment program that was absolutely necessary."
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Thursday, March 04, 2010
Marc Faber Discusses U.S. Debt Default and Hyper Inflation / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Submissions
Marc Faber sets out how he expects the U.S. will handle the growing debt mountain by first monetizing the debt, then defaulting on interest payments to foreigners as the U.S. inflates the debt away through high inflation or even hyper inflation.
Thursday, March 04, 2010
Investors Beware of Government Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Thorsten_Polleit
I. The Incentives for Holding and Issuing Government Debt
Many people invest their savings in government bonds. They are obviously of the opinion that government bonds offer an attractive yield and represent fairly little risk.
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Wednesday, March 03, 2010
Long-end Treasuries Drives Valuation Of Stocks And Real Estate: Where Are They Going? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Andrew_Butter
Not many people say this, but recently I noticed one of the guys at Minyanville saying…out of the blue, that the “fundamental” value of a stock is the best estimate of what the earnings will be discounted using the best estimate of what the 30 Year will be.
I almost had a heart attack!
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Wednesday, March 03, 2010
Bernanke on a Bailout of the U.S. Treasury / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Gary_North
On February 10, Ben Bernanke testified to the House Financial Services Committee. The topic: "Federal Reserve's exit strategy." His printed testimony contained the familiar promises. The Federal Reserve System will unwind when the economy recovers. Speaking of the TAF and TALF programs, he said:
Tuesday, March 02, 2010
An Attempt to Think Through the Greek Debt Crisis / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: John_Mauldin
Today I am sitting listening to Ralph Merkle lecture on nanotechnology, part of a 9-day-long series of lectures on how accelerating change in technologies of all types will affect our world. 15-hour days and intense discussions are stretching my brain, but I still have to make sure you get your Outside the Box. Fortunately, I came across today's OTB last week from my friends at GaveKal, who offer a way to think about the Greek crisis and what it means for all European bonds.
Monday, March 01, 2010
The Real Cause of Hyperinflation / Interest-Rates / HyperInflation
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
In his weekly letter, John Mauldin concluded that we have not experienced hyperinflation (despite massive Fed “printing”) due to the fact that the money multiplier has fallen and fallen below 1.0. This means that for each additional $1 added to the monetary base, the money supply is changing by less than $1. In other words, banks are not lending and so the velocity of money is declining.
Sunday, February 28, 2010
Bernanke Says U.S. Heading for Greece Style Debt Crisis / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Washingtons_Blog
Bernanke is now joining Rosenberg, Ferguson and Faber, Edwards, Grice and many others in warning that the debt crisis rearing its head in Greece may spread to America, causing U.S. interest rates to climb.
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Friday, February 26, 2010
U.S. Treasury Bond Market Auctions Results This Week / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Fresbee
We hereby summarise the bond auctions this week which held another record breaking amount as nearly 150 billion were auctioned between 3 months to 7 year duration. The overall Bid/cover has been very healthy at 2.9 and even with Chinese spat going on, Indirect bidders have been significant with their presence albeit at a lower level of participation.
Thursday, February 25, 2010
Bond Vigilantes set Sights on Sovereign Debt / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Gary_Dorsch
The collapse of Lehman Brothers triggered one of the biggest corporate debt defaults in history, and also ignited the biggest stock market meltdown in decades. When the smoke had finally cleared, Lehman’s bonds attracted bids of 8-cents on the dollar, resulting in staggering losses of $365-billion. Worse yet, about 350 banks and investors were thought to have insured $400-billion of Lehman’s bonds through complex derivatives, known as credit default swaps (CDS’s), causing even deeper losses and mayhem in the markets. A fifth was wiped off London Footsie shares, and in Tokyo, the Nikkei-225 index lost 10% of its value in a single week.
Wednesday, February 24, 2010
Sultans of Swap - Explaining $605 Trillion of Derivatives! / Interest-Rates / Derivatives
By: Gordon_T_Long
(The Bond Vigilantes are dead - RIP - Long Live the Sultans of Swap)
Every parent has had that moment when their child asks them the simplest sounding question but in that instance before you respond, you realize you have never really thought about it and actually don"t know the real truth. To not have an answer would be to lose all credibility as the "all knowing" parent. Like generations of parents before you - you bluff!
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Wednesday, February 24, 2010
U.S. Treasury Bonds, The Correct Play Is To Be Long / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Guy_Lerner
Over the past many months, I have spent much time on this blog writing about US Treasury bonds. Treasury bonds have become a tale of two diverse stories, and both stories have the potential to be secular or generational in nature.
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
How the Fed Lost Control of Monetary Policy / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
While investors contemplate the recent increase in the Federal Funds rate, astute investors realize this arbitrary figure means nothing in regards to fighting inflation or decreasing the money supply. Although the Federal Funds rate may have made an impact in 2008, its impact on the market was lost after the Fed expanded the balance sheet to buy illiquid assets in late 2008 through 2009.
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Tuesday, February 23, 2010
The Most Important Chart in the World Right Now / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: DailyWealth
To most people, any talk of the U.S. government debt simply doesn't mean anything.
For instance, I could tell you the annual funding costs of our national debt are approaching $4 trillion per year – that's $1.5 trillion in new annual deficits, plus $2 trillion-$3 trillion a year in short-term obligations coming due that need to be refinanced. Foreigners hold roughly half of this debt. Thus, we have about $2 trillion in foreign debt that must be repaid or refinanced each year.
Monday, February 22, 2010
U.S. Government Debt Crisis is Financial Armageddon / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Martin_D_Weiss
If you thought Wall Street’s debt crisis was traumatic, wait till you the see the consequences of Washington’s debt crisis!
Never before in history has a world power like the U.S. been so utterly buried in debt! And never before has that debt been financed so massively by foreign investors!
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Monday, February 22, 2010
U.S. Federal Reserve Raises Discount Rate, What is the Economic Significance? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Barry_Grey
In a move that took the financial markets by surprise, the US Federal Reserve Board on Thursday announced that, effective Friday, it was raising its discount rate by a quarter point, from 0.50 percent to 0.75 percent.
Monday, February 22, 2010
Interest Rate Yield Curve Steepest In History, Is it Different This Time? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Mike_Shedlock
Curve Watchers Anonymous is once again taking a look at the yield curve looking for economic clues. Here are a few charts to consider.