Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, February 19, 2010
U.S. Treasury Debt Auctions Bombing, China Heading for the Hills … Higher Interest Rates Dead Ahead! / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Mike_Larson
You can’t count on Washington to proactively warn you about major economic and market problems …
Politicians and Fed policymakers failed to warn investors away from tech stocks during the Nasdaq bubble.
They failed to warn you in advance that the housing and mortgage markets would crash.
Friday, February 19, 2010
Fed Raises Discount Interest Rate, Dollar Soars, Equity Futures Sink, What's It Really Mean? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Mike_Shedlock
The Fed has been talking about its "exit strategy" for quite some time. Few believed he would pull the trigger on anything soon. Yet, Bernanke, unexpectedly raised the discount rate headed into options expiration.
Friday, February 19, 2010
Is all this Fed Central Bank Exit Strategy Talk Warranted? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Tim_Iacono
Boy, for a group of policymakers at the nation's central bank who, in a best case scenario, are going to just sit on their hands for at least the rest of the year, there sure has been a lot of talk about an "exit strategy".
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
Are US Treasury Bonds About to Rally or Implode? Part2 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Graham_Summers
Back in October I wrote a piece, Are US Treasuries About to Rally or Implode? At that time, I noted that the chart for long-term US debt was forming what could have either been a challenge to long-term support, or a potential head and shoulders pattern.
The main idea was that the market was about to tell us whether or not investors considered US Treasuries a safe-haven anymore. If they did, long-term debt would rally. If they didn’t the potential head and shoulders pattern would be confirmed by a break below the “neckline” which would trigger a major sell-off.
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Wednesday, February 17, 2010
The Municipal Bond Crisis Is About to Begin / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2010
By: Graham_Summers
Thus ends one more safehaven.
For decades municipal bonds have been considered one of the safest income plays on the planet. If you’re unfamiliar with these investments, municipal bonds or muni bonds as they’re commonly called, are bonds issued by lower tier governments (state, city, or even county) to raise capital for public projects like building a highway, sewer, or what have you.
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Wednesday, February 17, 2010
U.S. Treasury Bonds TLT and IEF Update / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Guy_Lerner
One month ago, I looked at US Treasury bonds, and I was a bit more constructive than I had been in the prior 12 months. Technically, it had appeared that TLT and IEF had made reversals. So what has happened?
Absolutely nothing! Bonds have yet to get off their back and move higher. On the other hand, they have not moved lower. Do I get any points for that?
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Wednesday, February 17, 2010
The End of Low Interest Rates Is Near / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Francois_Soto
Long Term Interest Rates To Double By 2020
We believe 10-Year U.S. Treasuries Government Yield is going to double over the next decade to eventually reach 10% by 2020. This prediction seems quite nonsensical as interest rates are hovering at their lowest level but secular financial environment changes occur most of the time when market participants are expecting it the least... And this might just be the case with long term interest rates!
Tuesday, February 16, 2010
Fed Chooses to Exit through Eye of Needle / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Michael_Pento
Ben Bernanke is making sure the Fed’s exit strategy goes as easily as a camel can pass through the eye of a needle. Instead of choosing to just sell assets and unwind the amount of securities it holds, the Fed chairman is seeking to be creative once again—as he was in the buildup of its balance sheet--and increase the amount of interest it pays on excess reserves. He said this in a prepared statement for the House Financial Services Committee that was released on Wednesday, “It is possible that the Federal Reserve could for a time use the interest rate paid on reserves, in combination with targets for reserve quantities, as a guide to its policy stance, while simultaneously monitoring a range of market rates.”
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Monday, February 15, 2010
Credit Card Interest Rates Hit 12 Year High Despite 0.5% Base Rate / Interest-Rates / Credit Cards & Scoring
By: MoneyFacts
Increased competition in the credit card market at the end of the 1990s meant rates started to fall, dropping to their lowest level in 2006.
Since 2006 as the economic downturn took hold, credit card rates have steadily increased, with the average rate today hitting a 12 year high of 18.8%.
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Sunday, February 14, 2010
Niall Ferguson: A Greek Debt Crisis is Coming to America / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Trader_Mark
Oh that Niall! Always stirring up trouble... Today might be the most entertaining set of posts I've ever put together - what a smorgasbord. Today we have an editorial in the Financial Times raising many of the same issues we speak out weekly in these virtual pages. Don't forget your own homeland Mr. Ferguson; it's a mini US but without the reserve currency - this "grand experiment" of fighting debt with more debt should show up on your shores before ours. The only thing that separates our 2 nations from the Greeks on a fiscal basis, is the printing press. [Feb 5, 2010: Sovereign Risk Chart - Where Would the US Fit in, on Europe's Scale?]
Sunday, February 14, 2010
U.S. Treasury Bond Debt Auctions on a Trend to Failure? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Fresbee
The latest 30 year bond auction have been disappointing with some already terming it as a failure. This is an opportune time to analyse the trends in bond markets. There is almost a pall of gloom across the many who understand bond market mechanics and we will try to break down two of the most important auctions: 30 year and 10 year auctions, to see the trend and patterns in results. Quoting from Reuters on the latest 30 Year auction:
Friday, February 12, 2010
Forget Greece, the US Almost Had a Failed Treasury Bond Auction / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Graham_Summers
While most of the investment world focuses on the various ”senior officials” (none of whom seem to have actual names or positions) commenting on whether Greece will or will not be bailed out/ receive an emergency loan/ offered moral support, etc, a far more significant debt story is emerging in the US.
Friday, February 12, 2010
U.S. Real Estate Market and Interest Rates in 2010 and Beyond / Interest-Rates / US Housing
By: Mike_Larson
Last week’s World MoneyShow in Orlando was a huge success! I had the pleasure of meeting several of you at the Gaylord Palms Hotel, and I couldn’t have been happier with the constructive feedback you shared.
But I also know that not everyone could make the trek. And I don’t want to leave you out in the cold!
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Thursday, February 11, 2010
Not All UK Fixed Rate Mortgages Are Decreasing / Interest-Rates / Mortgages
By: MoneyFacts
Latest Moneyfacts.co.uk figures show that while fixed mortgage rates are falling, they are only doing so for those with significant equity.
The average two year fixed rate for a borrower with a 10% deposit has increased steadily since April 2009, now standing at 6.48%, the highest level since December 2008.
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Thursday, February 11, 2010
Plausible Sovereign Debt Default On A Global Scale / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Dian_L_Chu
In a CNBC interview on Feb. 10, Marc Faber of Gloom, Boom & Doom Report went out on a limb by stating that he is not buying any sovereign debt or bonds, because ALL governments will eventually default, including the United States.
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
California Debt Crisis, Muni Bonds At Real Risk of Default / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Richard_Shaw
California’s finances are a mess. Credit default swap rates put California among the top ten most likely to default among major governments worldwide.
If you are a California resident and think California can solve it’s own budget problems, or if you think the US government will bail them out, then you might want to own California municipal bonds for the best fit tax shelter and the higher nominal yield. However, if you doubt either of those, you may be better off owning a national or non-California muni fund, and accept a less tax efficient holding with a somewhat lower nominal yield, but with superior credit quality.
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Tuesday, February 09, 2010
What Do Rising Sovereign Debt, Credit Default Swaps Mean? / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Washingtons_Blog
Rolfe Winkler argues that - in the short-run - the PIIGS countries (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) will slash their budgets and get bailed out by the EU.
Tuesday, February 09, 2010
Front-Running the Fed in the Treasury Market, There's No Business Like Bond Business / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Professor_Emeritus
For some nine years I have been predicting that the economy is going to a recession morphing into a depression, using a purely theoretical argument. The essence of my argument is that the open market operations of the Fed cause a protracted decline in interest rates which is responsible for the hard-to-detect capital destruction affecting the financial sector no less than the productive sector. The immediate cause of the depression is the destruction of capital. The ultimate cause is the monetary policy of open market operations. The chain of causation is as follows.
Monday, February 08, 2010
ECB in a Fix, Trichet is as Chill as Ever! / Interest-Rates / ECB Interest Rates
By: Vishal_Damor
Trichet is one of the stalwarts of the economic crisis of 2008. He steered the EU economy through one of the most difficult eras after its creation and yet has maintained one of the cleanest balance sheet (Deficit 6% of GDP: one can almost mistake it for China or India Balance sheet).
Saturday, February 06, 2010
E.U. Government Bonds are STILL the Safest Bet / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market
By: Vishal_Damor
Well you will not hear that too often. Will you? At a time when markets are ravaging the hapless Greece government into complete submission, PIGS as a basket is being slaughtered mercilessly in the bond markets, Euro has now tumbled a mind boggling 1500 pips from its peak of 1.524, it is important to step above the markets and take a deep breadth on where exactly are we in the much hyped sovereign bond risk.