Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Silver Is Close To Something Big - 2nd Mar 21
Bitcoin: Let's Put 2 Heart-Pounding Price Drops into Perspective - 2nd Mar 21
Gold Stocks Spring Rally 2021 - 2nd Mar 21
US Housing Market Trend Forecast 2021 - 2nd Mar 21
Covid-19 Vaccinations US House Prices Trend Indicator 2021 - 2nd Mar 21
How blockchain technology will change the online casino - 2nd Mar 21
How Much PC RAM Memory is Good in 2021, 16gb, 32gb or 64gb? - 2nd Mar 21
US Housing Market House Prices Momentum Analysis - 26th Feb 21
FOMC Minutes Disappoint Gold Bulls - 26th Feb 21
Kiss of Life for Gold - 26th Feb 21
Congress May Increase The Moral Hazard Building In The Stock Market - 26th Feb 21
The “Oil Of The Future” Is Set To Soar In 2021 - 26th Feb 21
The Everything Stock Market Rally Continues - 25th Feb 21
Vaccine inequality: A new beginning or another missed opportunity? - 25th Feb 21
What's Next Move For Silver, Gold? Follow US Treasuries and Commodities To Find Out - 25th Feb 21
Warren Buffett Buys a Copper Stock! - 25th Feb 21
Work From Home Inflationary US House Prices BOOM! - 25th Feb 21
Man Takes First Steps Towards Colonising Mars - Nasa Perseverance Rover in Jezero Crater - 25th Feb 21
Musk, Bezos And Cook Are Rushing To Lock In New Lithium Supply - 25th Feb 21
US Debt and Yield Curve (Spread between 2 year and 10 year US bonds) - 24th Feb 21
Should You Buy a Landrover Discovery Sport in 2021? - 24th Feb 21
US Housing Market 2021 and the Inflation Mega-trend - QE4EVER! - 24th Feb 21
M&A Most Commonly Used Software - 24th Feb 21
Is More Stock Market Correction Needed? - 24th Feb 21
VUZE XR Camera 180 3D VR Example Footage Video Image quality - 24th Feb 21
How to Protect Your Positions From A Stock Market Sell-Off Using Options - 24th Feb 21
Why Isn’t Retail Demand for Silver Pushing Up Prices? - 24th Feb 21
2 Stocks That Could Win Big In The Trillion Dollar Battery War - 24th Feb 21
US Economic Trends - GDP, Inflation and Unemployment Impact on House Prices 2021 - 23rd Feb 21
Why the Sky Is Not Falling in Precious Metals - 23rd Feb 21
7 Things Every Businessman Should Know - 23rd Feb 21
For Stocks, has the “Rational Bubble” Popped? - 23rd Feb 21
Will Biden Overheat the Economy and Gold? - 23rd Feb 21
Precious Metals Under Seige? - 23rd Feb 21
US House Prices Trend Forecast Review - 23rd Feb 21
Lithium Prices Soar As Tesla, Apple And Google Fight For Supply - 23rd Feb 21
Stock Markets Discounting Post Covid Economic Boom - 22nd Feb 21
Economics Is Why Vaccination Is So Hard - 22nd Feb 21
Pivotal Session In Stocks Bull Bear Battle - 22nd Feb 21
Gold’s Downtrend: Is This Just the Beginning? - 22nd Feb 21
The Most Exciting Commodities Play Of 2021? - 22nd Feb 21
How to Test NEW and Used GPU, and Benchmark to Make sure it is Working Properly - 22nd Feb 21
US House Prices Vaccinations Indicator - 21st Feb 21
S&P 500 Correction – No Need to Hold Onto Your Hat - 21st Feb 21
Gold Setting Up Major Bottom So Could We See A Breakout Rally Begin Soon? - 21st Feb 21
Owning Real Assets Amid Surreal Financial Markets - 21st Feb 21
Great Investment Ideas For 2021 - 21st Feb 21
US House Prices Momentum Analysis - 20th Feb 21
The Most Important Chart in Housing Right Now - 20th Feb 21
Gold Is the Ultimate Reserve Asset - 20th Feb 21
Is That the S&P 500 And Gold Correction Finally? - 20th Feb 21
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD - 20th Feb 21
The Stock Market Big Picture - 19th Feb 21
Could Silver "Do a Palladium"? - 19th Feb 21
Three More Reasons We Love To Trade Options! - 19th Feb 21
Here’s What’s Eating Away at Gold - 19th Feb 21
Stock Market March Melt-Up Madness - 19th Feb 21
Land Rover Discovery Sport Extreme Ice and Snow vs Windscreen Wipers Test - 19th Feb 21
Real Reason Why Black and Asian BAME are NOT Getting Vaccinated - NHS Covid-19 Vaccinations - 19th Feb 21
New BNPL Regulations Leave Zilch Leading the Way - 19th Feb 21
Work From Home Inflationary House Prices BOOM! - 18th Feb 21
Why This "Excellent" Stock Market Indicator Should Be on Your Radar Screen Now - 18th Feb 21
The Commodity Cycle - 18th Feb 21
Silver Backwardation and Other Evidence of a Silver Supply Squeeze - 18th Feb 21
Why I’m Avoiding These “Bottle Rocket” Stocks Like GameStop - 18th Feb 21
S&P 500 Correction Delayed Again While Silver Runs - 18th Feb 21
Silver Prices Are About to Explode as Stars are Lining up Like Never Before! - 18th Feb 21
Cannabis, Alternative Agra, Mushrooms, and Cryptos – Everything ALT is HOT - 18th Feb 21
Crypto Mining Craze, How We Mined 6 Bitcoins with a PS4 Gaming Console - 18th Feb 21
Stock Market Trend Forecasts Analysis Review - 17th Feb 21
Vaccine Nationalism Is a Multilateral, Neocolonial Failure - 17th Feb 21
First year of a Stocks bull market, or End of a Bubble? - 17th Feb 21
5 Reasons Why People Prefer to Trade Options Over Stocks - 17th Feb 21
The Gold & Gold Stock Corrections Are Normal - 17th Feb 21
WARNING Oculus Quest 2 Update v25 BROKE My VR Headset! - 17th Feb 21
UK Covid-19 Parks PACKED During Lockdown Despite "Stay at Home" Message - Endcliffe Park Sheffield - 17th Feb 21
How to Invest in ETFs in the UK - 17th Feb 21
Real Reason Why Black and Asian Ethnic minorities are NOT Getting Vaccinated - NHS Covid-19 Vaccinations - 16th Feb 21
THE INFLATION MEGA-TREND QE4EVER! - 16th Feb 21
Gold / Silver: What This "Large Non-Confirmation" May Mean - 16th Feb 21
Major Optimism for Platinum, Silver, and Copper - 16th Feb 21
S&P 500 Correction Looming, Just as in Gold – Or Not? - 16th Feb 21
Stock Market Last pull-back before intermediate top? - 16th Feb 21
GAMESTOP MANIA BUBBLE BURSTS! Investing Newbs Pump and Dump Roller coaster Ride - 16th Feb 21
Thinking About Starting to Trade This Year? Here Are Some Things to Keep in Mind - 16th Feb 21
US House Prices Real Estate Trend Forecast Review - 15th Feb 21
Will Tesla Charge Gold With Energy? - 15th Feb 21
Feeling the Growing Heat and Tensions in Stocks? - 15th Feb 21
Morgan Stanley Warns Gasoline Industry Is About to Become Totally Worthless - 15th Feb 21
Debts Lift Gold - Precious Metal Prices Will Rise on a Deluge of Red Ink - 15th Feb 21
Platinum Begins Big Breakout Rally - 15th Feb 21
How to Change Car Battery Without Losing Power, Memory, Radio Code Settings - 15th Feb 21
Five reasons why a financial advisor can make a big difference to your small business - 15th Feb 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Stocks & Commodity Markets Elliott Wave Analysis - 28th Jan 07

Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis Jan 28, 2007 - 10:28 PM GMT

By: Dominick

Stock-Markets

What a week! I'm going to do less writing than usual and focus more on technical analysis, which is, after all, how we trade. But, looking back over the last update, it's impressive that the market managed to make it all happen so quickly. The Jan 21st update said:

Friday's advance on the S&P will probably have early next week taking off to new highs, where we have the potential of creating a reversal pattern. Otherwise, the S&P's are looking to buy time into either the end of the month, or possibly around February 8. If so, we might trade sideways to down until we approach those dates. I'd rather have a pop to short as I patiently watch to see if my NYSE target mentioned months ago reaches perfection.


So, let's see, that's:

“probably have early next week taking off to new highs”: Check

“where we have the potential of creating a reversal pattern”: Check

“looking to buy time into the end of the month, or February 8th”: ?

Clearly, our “unbiased Elliott wave” works. The secret is that we leave our personal bias out of the charts and follow their lead. To see the difference in action, let's go to last week's charts. Monday started by extending the previous week's correction. Posted as the S&P dropped to its lows, this first chart captured the bottom of the move nicely.

Elliott Wave Analysis - S&P 500 

After that proved to be the correct target for the decline, we turned to planning the next upside target, only to find that many methods of technical analysis had SPX targets clustered at 1440. Actually, we'd known about the targets for weeks, but it finally looked as if their time had arrived. The next chart was posted Wednesday morning as the SPX was taking out the previous day's highs. I wonder how many buyers at that level were wondering exactly how much further the rally could go!

Elliott Wave Analysis - S&P 500

Not surprisingly, 1440 was the high point of the move and, as it was reached, I expressed that it was time to short the market even though it didn't feel like the thing to do. It was the charts that were doing the talking. As the indices rallied into the close, there must have been some of chatroom members thinking I'd lost it. If they were, they were probably watching the financial info-tainment shows and getting caught up in the euphoria of the huge rally. It could happen to anybody. But, a disciplined trader knows this is exactly the time to shut off the TV and trade the charts.

You've heard the saying “A picture is worth a thousand words”, well, I sometimes feel the same way about charts. In fact, when Elliott wave is applied correctly, you can step in front of a moving train, which is exactly what we did on Wednesday afternoon when we shorted the top of the rally.

The OEX chart below was posted almost every weekend for months. Members watched the progression of this move as it got closer and closer to its target each week. I'm sure many margin calls were saved from this one chart out of the 20+ that are posted on Saturdays alone! The fact that the OEX reached its exact target on the same day as the S&P was even further impetus for us to stick with the original plan and go short.

Elliott Wave Analysis - OEX

Once you've got your shorts on at the top, then I guess it's OK to turn the TV back on watch the reporters scramble to explain the dramatic selloff. Just one day after it was originally posted, this next chart looked like this:

Elliott Wave Analysis - S&P 500

Even I didn't think we would get such a move without creating some up/dn wiggles on the way down. It shows you how many many momentum players are nervous here.

As you can see, the trend charts have been right, with the 15min chart breaking at the top and picking up some points to the long side.

Elliott Wave Analysis -  

We also had a hit in the NYSE chart that I've been constantly targeting. This week, a 9000 point index came within 46 points of a target I've watched for months, just another multi-decade Fibonacci study to come amazingly close. Then again, maybe we have a small rally left in it to hit the exact number.

Elliott Wave Analysis - NYSE

In keeping with the “unbiased” theme, I put a question mark at the start of this update next to one of the ideas from last week. Could we have played out all three ideas? Could the reversal looking pattern only be part of a larger correction that's stalling for time? When I look over many of my charts, the answer that pops out is yes . Don't get me wrong, the week hit a target and produced a bearish outside down week. With that, all eyes should now be at the exit doors as this is the first week that I can comfortably label a complete count into the highs.

The majority of traders out there seem to keep their primary focus on THE top, but that's just not the way to make money in this market. The S&P closed down 9 for the week, but the swings produced a range of close to 60 points! Trading the volatility I promised for 2007 proved correct and profitable this week. Sure, bears can make money on a week that's straight down 50 or more, but with all the cash that sloshing around waiting for the “crash” is just not game I want to be playing.

So, even though I can label a top is in, I won't do it yet for several reasons. The sentiment on that drop wasn't what I wanted to see and, believe it or not, I have two very valid setups for additional highs. Another huge leg up isn't in the cards, but I'm not about to be short prematurely into the squeeze of all squeezes and get taken out of the position minutes before it turns. What's the hurry anyway, we aren't expecting just a 20-point drop. There will be plenty of areas to enter even if a bit late due to waiting on true confirmation.

And, afterall, next week is one where real-time analysis will prove golden and a map in this update could be in jeopardy at 2:16 on Wednesday. With the Fed meeting at 2:15 and Google earnings that same night, put on your TOP hat, as we're going out in style and don't expect to get to get stuck with the check! Yes, next week, or perhaps the next several weeks, are going to get really exciting.

I don't have a problem challenging those highs, but not in the first half of the year. The most I can see at the moment if an additional high is needed is up to 1472. If correct, long term investors should seriously look into their holdings and maybe adjust them, or place stops, if we see hints of what's outlined. Short term traders should not assume a top has been registered solely because we trade under this week's low. What happens at that low is key, not just that we get there.

The truth lies somewhere between here and the 2000 highs. Analysis going into these important events can be viewed 24/7 for only $50 per month.

Grains
We still await a perfect technical pattern to give us the go in the grains.

The chart below, which members can view in the grain forum, shows the setup in detail.

Elliott Wave Analysis - Grains 

Google

“After a 60 point rally, the double top kicked in as the RSI diverged. Nothing has changed. We now need to see what it wants to do, hit my target or start heading down in a big way. I'll lean a bit in favor of my target until proven wrong, but there isn't a good risk/reward trade here in my opinion. Staying out of a market until there is something to work with is a good choice.

Elliott Wave Analysis - Google 

Oil

A few weeks ago I expressed that oil wasn't going to $30 and I wanted to buy it above 5461 on the February contract and 4618 in the USO. The USO found resistance, and closed ten cents away from that original number of 4618. Rejection of that number should send it down to complete a 5 th wave, otherwise, the move to $60 + may have started.

Elliott Wave Analysis - Crude oIl

Metals

Joe has been covering the precious metals markets for us in rare depth and accuracy. For specific analysis, be sure to read his weekly Precious Points updates.

Have a great week trading, and don't forget:

“Unbiased Elliott Wave works!”

By Dominick

Subscription Special - Did you take advantage of the SPX 1360 call back in August? Are you ready to make more money from here? Are you aware of what is needed to confirm a top? This is Dominick, a.k.a. Spwaver, admin at www.TradingtheCharts.com and I'm so confident you'll enjoy learning and profiting from our site that I'll refund your FULL payment if you don't. Subscribe now for $50/month (1 ES point) and if you don't see the value within 1 week, email me by Feb 6 th and I will send you an immediate refund, no questions asked.

All types of investors already see the upside, from the daytrader that wants the community of a realtime chatroom, to the mutual fund trader that casually visits once a week for trend changes, and the many lost Elliott followers that've recently dusted off their RN Elliott books. I won't cut the monthly fee because there's simply no better value on the internet. Try us now with zero risk and see the upside! If you've enjoyed this article, signup for Market Updates , our monthly newsletter, and, for more immediate analysis and market reaction, view my work and the charts exchanged between our seasoned traders in TradingtheCharts forum .

Continued success has inspired expansion of the “open access to non subscribers” forums, and our Market Advisory members and I have agreed to post our work in these forums periodically. Explore services from Wall Street's best, including Jim Curry, Tim Ords, Glen Neely, Richard Rhodes, Andre Gratian, Bob Carver, Eric Hadik, Chartsedge, Elliott today, Stock Barometer, Harry Boxer, Mike Paulenoff and others. Try them all, subscribe to the ones that suit your style, and accelerate your trading profits! These forums are on the top of the homepage at Trading the Charts.Market analysts are always welcome to contribute to the Forum or newsletter. Email me @ Dominick@tradingthecharts.com if you have any interest.

This update is provided as general information and is not an investment recommendation. TTC accepts no liability whatsoever for any losses resulting from action taken based on the contents of its charts, commentaries, or price data. Securities and commodities markets involve inherent risk and not all positions are suitable for each individual. Check with your licensed financial advisor or broker prior to taking any action.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules