Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
Stock Market Volatility (VIX) - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Investor Sentiment - 25th Mar 24
The Federal Reserve Didn't Do Anything But It Had Plenty to Say - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Breadth - 24th Mar 24
Stock Market Margin Debt Indicator - 24th Mar 24
It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - 24th Mar 24
Stocks: What to Make of All This Insider Selling- 24th Mar 24
Money Supply Continues To Fall, Economy Worsens – Investors Don’t Care - 24th Mar 24
Get an Edge in the Crypto Market with Order Flow - 24th Mar 24
US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions - 18th Mar 24
US Recession Already Happened in 2022! - 18th Mar 24
AI can now remember everything you say - 18th Mar 24
Bitcoin Crypto Mania 2024 - MicroStrategy MSTR Blow off Top! - 14th Mar 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - 11th Mar 24
Gold and the Long-Term Inflation Cycle - 11th Mar 24
Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - 11th Mar 24
Two Reasons The Fed Manipulates Interest Rates - 11th Mar 24
US Dollar Trend 2024 - 9th Mar 2024
The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - 9th Mar 2024
Investors Don’t Believe the Gold Rally, Still Prefer General Stocks - 9th Mar 2024
Paper Gold Vs. Real Gold: It's Important to Know the Difference - 9th Mar 2024
Stocks: What This "Record Extreme" Indicator May Be Signaling - 9th Mar 2024
My 3 Favorite Trade Setups - Elliott Wave Course - 9th Mar 2024
Bitcoin Crypto Bubble Mania! - 4th Mar 2024
US Interest Rates - When WIll the Fed Pivot - 1st Mar 2024
S&P Stock Market Real Earnings Yield - 29th Feb 2024
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic - 29th Feb 2024
U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - 29th Feb 2024
What a Breakdown in Silver Mining Stocks! What an Opportunity! - 29th Feb 2024
Why AI will Soon become SA - Synthetic Intelligence - The Machine Learning Megatrend - 29th Feb 2024
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks - 19th Feb 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

US Housing Market - Homeownership Rate and Sub-Prime Mortgages - A Positive Correlation?

Housing-Market / Forecasts & Technical Analysis Mar 01, 2007 - 01:29 AM GMT

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Housing-Market

Chart 1 shows that the national homeownership rate (the percentage of occupied housing units that are owner occupied housing units) started rising sharply around 1995, hitting a record high in 2004. Why this sudden rise in homeownership?

Chart 1


Was it because of a sudden and steady rise in housing affordability, which is a function of the price of a house, the mortgage rate and the income of the buyer? Well, housing affordability did start to rebound in the early 1980s. But, as shown in Chart 2, housing affordability topped out in 1993 - before the rapid ascent in homeownership. Moreover, the homeownership rate remained near its record high of 69% (set in 2004) even as housing affordability was falling significantly in 2005 and 2006.

Chart 2

What is interesting is that about the time the national homeownership rate was rising, the homeownership rate for the relatively young - under 35 years old - was rising relative to that of the homeownership rate of seniors - 65 years old and over. This is shown in Chart 3.

Chart 3

Was there a sharp increase in the incomes of adult children relative to their parents that could explain the increase in the kids' relative rate of homeownership? Yes, there was some increase in the ratio of the median incomes of the 25-to-34 year old set to seniors starting in 1996 (see Chart 4). This may have accounted for some of the relative increase in homeownership rates for the under 35ers.

Chart 4

Unfortunately, I do not have data on the relative increase in sub-prime mortgages relative to prime. But if any of you out there in cyberland do, I would like to look at it. My hypothesis is that the sharp increase in homeownership rates in the past ten years or so is positively related to the amount of sub-prime and "exotic" mortgage products originated in this time period - products that most likely were marketed to younger potential homebuyers. If my hypothesis is correct, I would predict a sharp drop in homeownership rates as the underwriting standards for sub-prime and/or exotic mortgages are tightened significantly in the quarters ahead. And, oh yes, if my hypothesis is correct, the term homeownership might be a misnomer for the younger set. "Renters with options to buy" might be more accurate.

By Paul Kasriel
The Northern Trust Company
Economic Research Department - Daily Global Commentary

Paul joined the economic research unit of The Northern Trust Company in 1986 as Vice President and Economist, being named Senior Vice President and Director of Economic Research in 2000. His economic and interest rate forecasts are used both internally and by clients. The accuracy of the Economic Research Department's forecasts has consistently been highly-ranked in the Blue Chip survey of about 50 forecasters over the years. To that point, Paul received the prestigious 2006 Lawrence R. Klein Award for having the most accurate economic forecast among the Blue Chip survey participants for the years 2002 through 2005.

The opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of The Northern Trust Company. The Northern Trust Company does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in