Stock Market Long Wave Theory 92% Right (On S&P 500); Buffett & Roubini 75% Wrong

By: Andrew_Butter

January 2009 I thought I’d see if "market-long-wave" theory (which I previously only used for real estate), works for the US stock market.

Now that the Bears seem to have almost completely disappeared and the S&P 500 is flirting with 1,000 I thought I’d have a look and see how it did:

Looks like it works...new paradigm perhaps?

Notes on Scoring:
The one mistake with market-long-waves was in January when I misread the wave periodicity, I corrected that in February, so I'll count that as half (6.5 ÷ 7 = 92% right).

Warren Buffet's call for 900 in February was correct in principle, but in the long term (after five months), and there was a 25% drop in-between; so I'll give him half; Professor Roubini was 100% wrong about the dead-cat-bounce; so that's (1.5 ÷ 2 = 75% wrong).

Links:
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article8293.html
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article9131.html
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article9321.html
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article9749.html
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article10101.html
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article10604.html

By Andrew Butter

Andrew Butter is managing partner of ABMC, an investment advisory firm, based in Dubai ( hbutter@eim.ae ), that he setup in 1999, and is has been involved advising on large scale real estate investments, mainly in Dubai.

© 2009 Copyright Andrew Butter- All Rights Reserved
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