Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
US Housing Market House Prices Momentum Analysis - 26th Feb 21
FOMC Minutes Disappoint Gold Bulls - 26th Feb 21
Kiss of Life for Gold - 26th Feb 21
Congress May Increase The Moral Hazard Building In The Stock Market - 26th Feb 21
The “Oil Of The Future” Is Set To Soar In 2021 - 26th Feb 21
The Everything Stock Market Rally Continues - 25th Feb 21
Vaccine inequality: A new beginning or another missed opportunity? - 25th Feb 21
What's Next Move For Silver, Gold? Follow US Treasuries and Commodities To Find Out - 25th Feb 21
Warren Buffett Buys a Copper Stock! - 25th Feb 21
Work From Home Inflationary US House Prices BOOM! - 25th Feb 21
Man Takes First Steps Towards Colonising Mars - Nasa Perseverance Rover in Jezero Crater - 25th Feb 21
Musk, Bezos And Cook Are Rushing To Lock In New Lithium Supply - 25th Feb 21
US Debt and Yield Curve (Spread between 2 year and 10 year US bonds) - 24th Feb 21
Should You Buy a Landrover Discovery Sport in 2021? - 24th Feb 21
US Housing Market 2021 and the Inflation Mega-trend - QE4EVER! - 24th Feb 21
M&A Most Commonly Used Software - 24th Feb 21
Is More Stock Market Correction Needed? - 24th Feb 21
VUZE XR Camera 180 3D VR Example Footage Video Image quality - 24th Feb 21
How to Protect Your Positions From A Stock Market Sell-Off Using Options - 24th Feb 21
Why Isn’t Retail Demand for Silver Pushing Up Prices? - 24th Feb 21
2 Stocks That Could Win Big In The Trillion Dollar Battery War - 24th Feb 21
US Economic Trends - GDP, Inflation and Unemployment Impact on House Prices 2021 - 23rd Feb 21
Why the Sky Is Not Falling in Precious Metals - 23rd Feb 21
7 Things Every Businessman Should Know - 23rd Feb 21
For Stocks, has the “Rational Bubble” Popped? - 23rd Feb 21
Will Biden Overheat the Economy and Gold? - 23rd Feb 21
Precious Metals Under Seige? - 23rd Feb 21
US House Prices Trend Forecast Review - 23rd Feb 21
Lithium Prices Soar As Tesla, Apple And Google Fight For Supply - 23rd Feb 21
Stock Markets Discounting Post Covid Economic Boom - 22nd Feb 21
Economics Is Why Vaccination Is So Hard - 22nd Feb 21
Pivotal Session In Stocks Bull Bear Battle - 22nd Feb 21
Gold’s Downtrend: Is This Just the Beginning? - 22nd Feb 21
The Most Exciting Commodities Play Of 2021? - 22nd Feb 21
How to Test NEW and Used GPU, and Benchmark to Make sure it is Working Properly - 22nd Feb 21
US House Prices Vaccinations Indicator - 21st Feb 21
S&P 500 Correction – No Need to Hold Onto Your Hat - 21st Feb 21
Gold Setting Up Major Bottom So Could We See A Breakout Rally Begin Soon? - 21st Feb 21
Owning Real Assets Amid Surreal Financial Markets - 21st Feb 21
Great Investment Ideas For 2021 - 21st Feb 21
US House Prices Momentum Analysis - 20th Feb 21
The Most Important Chart in Housing Right Now - 20th Feb 21
Gold Is the Ultimate Reserve Asset - 20th Feb 21
Is That the S&P 500 And Gold Correction Finally? - 20th Feb 21
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD - 20th Feb 21
The Stock Market Big Picture - 19th Feb 21
Could Silver "Do a Palladium"? - 19th Feb 21
Three More Reasons We Love To Trade Options! - 19th Feb 21
Here’s What’s Eating Away at Gold - 19th Feb 21
Stock Market March Melt-Up Madness - 19th Feb 21
Land Rover Discovery Sport Extreme Ice and Snow vs Windscreen Wipers Test - 19th Feb 21
Real Reason Why Black and Asian BAME are NOT Getting Vaccinated - NHS Covid-19 Vaccinations - 19th Feb 21
New BNPL Regulations Leave Zilch Leading the Way - 19th Feb 21
Work From Home Inflationary House Prices BOOM! - 18th Feb 21
Why This "Excellent" Stock Market Indicator Should Be on Your Radar Screen Now - 18th Feb 21
The Commodity Cycle - 18th Feb 21
Silver Backwardation and Other Evidence of a Silver Supply Squeeze - 18th Feb 21
Why I’m Avoiding These “Bottle Rocket” Stocks Like GameStop - 18th Feb 21
S&P 500 Correction Delayed Again While Silver Runs - 18th Feb 21
Silver Prices Are About to Explode as Stars are Lining up Like Never Before! - 18th Feb 21
Cannabis, Alternative Agra, Mushrooms, and Cryptos – Everything ALT is HOT - 18th Feb 21
Crypto Mining Craze, How We Mined 6 Bitcoins with a PS4 Gaming Console - 18th Feb 21
Stock Market Trend Forecasts Analysis Review - 17th Feb 21
Vaccine Nationalism Is a Multilateral, Neocolonial Failure - 17th Feb 21
First year of a Stocks bull market, or End of a Bubble? - 17th Feb 21
5 Reasons Why People Prefer to Trade Options Over Stocks - 17th Feb 21
The Gold & Gold Stock Corrections Are Normal - 17th Feb 21
WARNING Oculus Quest 2 Update v25 BROKE My VR Headset! - 17th Feb 21
UK Covid-19 Parks PACKED During Lockdown Despite "Stay at Home" Message - Endcliffe Park Sheffield - 17th Feb 21
How to Invest in ETFs in the UK - 17th Feb 21
Real Reason Why Black and Asian Ethnic minorities are NOT Getting Vaccinated - NHS Covid-19 Vaccinations - 16th Feb 21
THE INFLATION MEGA-TREND QE4EVER! - 16th Feb 21
Gold / Silver: What This "Large Non-Confirmation" May Mean - 16th Feb 21
Major Optimism for Platinum, Silver, and Copper - 16th Feb 21
S&P 500 Correction Looming, Just as in Gold – Or Not? - 16th Feb 21
Stock Market Last pull-back before intermediate top? - 16th Feb 21
GAMESTOP MANIA BUBBLE BURSTS! Investing Newbs Pump and Dump Roller coaster Ride - 16th Feb 21
Thinking About Starting to Trade This Year? Here Are Some Things to Keep in Mind - 16th Feb 21
US House Prices Real Estate Trend Forecast Review - 15th Feb 21
Will Tesla Charge Gold With Energy? - 15th Feb 21
Feeling the Growing Heat and Tensions in Stocks? - 15th Feb 21
Morgan Stanley Warns Gasoline Industry Is About to Become Totally Worthless - 15th Feb 21
Debts Lift Gold - Precious Metal Prices Will Rise on a Deluge of Red Ink - 15th Feb 21
Platinum Begins Big Breakout Rally - 15th Feb 21
How to Change Car Battery Without Losing Power, Memory, Radio Code Settings - 15th Feb 21
Five reasons why a financial advisor can make a big difference to your small business - 15th Feb 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Stock & Commodity Markets Elliott Wave update - Play It Again, Sam !

Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis Jan 21, 2007 - 05:00 PM GMT

By: Dominick

Stock-Markets

The Jan 14th update stated:

So, what's next? NOW we are finally getting to where I can become comfortable looking for the market to complete my count. I may have started to sound like a broken record, saying, “I still didn't see confirmation of a top and that I needed another new high”. But it's the market's that's been playing this same old sideways tune.

Sentiment indicators have tried to provide sell signals intraday but we haven't closed into those levels. Indicators are diverged, but this recent rally has kept them from triggering sell signals. With that said, the good news is that if I do get the signals any time soon, I can finally be comfortable labeling a chart complete, knowing it's correct.

Well, nothing has changed. I still don't have a sell signal and I don't gauge sentiment at the end of an options expiry week. We opened the week on the S&P trying to poke our heads to higher levels only to find sellers out playing whack-a-mole. We tried on Tuesday, and then again on Wednesday only to selloff into Thursday. Basically, the market's still playing the same sideways tune.


I'm sure many traders were either buying into the new highs or sold the reversal of it thinking it was the big one again . We instead, had our roadmap to use, and it went well. The chart below was posted at 11:00 on Tuesday morning and the rest of the week we waited for the S&P to find its way into and out of the target area. We weren't chasing any moves but instead, buying and selling support and resistance. In 4 th waves, you either trade it back and forth or find a different market that is moving. We did both.

S&P Elliott Wave Analysis

In all, it was a pretty boring week for index trading, seeing more of a healthy pullback than anything else, but it was nice to see members use the Forums to their advantage in other markets. We spent most of the time taking advantage of the drama on the financial news stations in regards to oil. The talking heads have officially gone from bracing us for $100 oil to an almost palpable sense of disappointment as they start to anticipate the price will drop under $30? What happened to peak oil? I think the point to take is that watching the news is no way to make money. Folks, wake up and use your charts or go broke!

I've been looking for a bottom in oil over the last week or two and expressed last week that I was looking to buy it above 54.61. With all the non-stop talk of oil, I posted on Wednesday at 11:00 that I was going to take a small long position. The next day, after rallying off the lows, oil made a slight new low, and has since started to advance upward. It was actually nice to start getting questions like, “What is the symbol for oil futures”, or, “What is the symbol for the ETF?” There are many markets to trade and people are realizing that many of them are actually easier because they move more transparently. Many traders at the Forum took home 2 points of profit from oil and, after they turned off CNBC, laughed their way into the weekend.

If I could have my way, oil would play around at this level a bit and then spike down and reverse leaving no one on board for the next train going to $60 plus. But oil is going to do the deciding and, if it blasts off from here, I have no problem paying up after confirmation that the low is in. We're still under the 54.61 and it's questionable if a low has been established or if another low is needed. The March contract has resistance right above it and I've been taking my profits into the weekend. Once I can see confirmation, I'll either wait for the low or chase the price higher. But, as you can see from this daily oil chart, there was a reason for traders to start buying recently.

Oil price Elliott wave analysis
 

If we do get lucky and see a spike to a higher low, a double bottom or a take out of the lows, I expect it to be fast and to reverse. There could be a nice bear trap at 50.50. Being so close to $50 makes you think that it will be penetrated, if only to open the trap door. If that were to happen, I'll be watching 49.70 closely, but the March contract does have targets down to 47.60.

So, as you can see, even though last week was boring, we kept busy. Going forward, we may have plenty of chances to do it again, but we'll definitely be keeping our eye first and foremost on the major indexes. Friday's advance on the S&P will probably have early next week taking off to new highs, where we have the potential of creating a reversal pattern. Otherwise, the S&P's are looking to buy time into either the end of the month, or possibly around February 8 th . If so,

we might trade sideways to down until we approach those dates.

The only surprise here would be an impulse move lower, and that wouldn't come as a shock to anyone following the Nasdaq, which might be already heading south. I rather have a pop to short as I patiently watch to see if my NYSE target mentioned months ago reaches perfection. The chart below shows the NYSE weekly at the 9314 target. Sure, at this proximity it would already be considered a hit, but why get in the way of Mother Nature?

Dow Jones  Elliott wave analysis

And could the DAX be running into nice resistance and getting ready to lead us to what we've been waiting for in the S&P? The chart below seems to think so. Generally, the Dax has been behaving excellently and is another example of a market that's much cleaner than the S&P.

S&P 500  Elliott wave analysis

Another area to watch going forward is the volatility index. For years I've joked that the markets would not top until the VIX closed under 10. Not only has it done so, but it now seems to like this level and may want to consolidate or poke even lower in the short term. The chart below, however, shows what the direction of the larger move should ultimately be.

VIX  Elliott wave analysis
Free Elliott Wave Tutorial

Grains
When one door is closed, another is opened. When the indexes got slow we traded oil. If oil decides to consolidate at this low, we'll find another market to trade. It just so happens that we are watching another hot new item everyone's talking about. I think we have a great technical setup possibly waiting in the grain markets. The chart below, which members can view in the grain forum, shows the setup in detail.


Google
Last week's idea was,

Long positions should now adjust their stops to the idea of resistance close above.

After a 60 point rally, the double top kicked in as the RSI diverged. Nothing has changed. We now need to see what it wants to do, hit my target or start heading down in a big way. I'll lean a bit in favor of my target until proven wrong, but there isn't a good risk/reward trade here in my opinion. Staying out of a market until there is something to work with is a good choice. Again, when one door is closed . . .

Google  Elliott wave analysis

Metals
Precious metals have been swinging pretty nicely of late, even though they holding roughly to sideways consolidation patterns. For more in depth analysis, be sure to read Joe's weekly Precious Points updates.

Have a great week trading, and don't forget:

“Unbiased Elliott Wave works!”

By Dominick

For real-time analysis, become a member of http://www.tradingthecharts.com for only $50

If you've enjoyed this article, signup for MarketUp dates , our monthly newsletter, and, for more immediate analysis and market reaction, view my work and the charts exchanged between our seasoned traders in TradingtheCharts forum. Continued success has inspired expansion of the “open access to non subscribers” forums, and our Market Advisory members and I have agreed to post our work in these forums periodically. Explore services from Wall Street's best, including Jim Curry, Tim Ords, Glen Neely, Richard Rhodes, Andre Gratian, Bob Carver, Eric Hadik, Chartsedge, Elliott today, Stock Barometer, Harry Boxer, Mike Paulenoff and others. Try them all, subscribe to the ones that suit your style, and accelerate your trading profits! These forums are on the top of the homepage at Trading the Charts. Market analysts are always welcome to contribute to the Forum or newsletter. Email me @ Dominick@tradingthecharts.com if you have any interest.

This update is provided as general information and is not an investment recommendation. TTC accepts no liability whatsoever for any losses resulting from action taken based on the contents of its charts, commentaries, or price data. Securities and commodities markets involve inherent risk and not all positions are suitable for each individual. Check with your licensed financial advisor or broker prior to taking any action.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules