Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, September 07, 2017
Forecasting US 30-Year Treasury Bond Yields / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Francois_Soto
The movement of interest rates affects lenders and creditors across global markets while influencing key variables such as output, employment, etc.We predict the US Generic 30-Year Treasuries Yield using a selection of macroeconomic variables chosen from hundreds of time series available.
We trade US1 future contracts based on the differential between the regression output and the actual yield and this strategy is profitable.
Interest rates are an important monetary policy tool to gauge the state of the economy and for policy makers to act accordingly. Per its definition, it is the rate at which interest is paid by a borrower for the use of money. The movement of interest rates affects lenders and creditors across global markets while influencing key variables such as output, employment, consumption, etc.
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Thursday, September 07, 2017
Yet Another Theory of the Fed? Uggh! / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: F_F_Wiley
The world hardly needs another theory of the Fed, especially so soon after its Jackson Hole symposium. But we have a theory, too, and who knows, ours could be as close to the bulls-eye as any of the others. Plus, our theory is easy to explain—it rests on the simple premise that decision makers worry mostly about their reputations. We’ll propose that reputational risks are the primary drivers of central bank policies, and then we’ll use that belief to predict a major policy shift.
Thursday, August 31, 2017
The Demise Of Libor Is Part Of A Massive Global Trend That Many Overlook / Interest-Rates / Global Financial System
By: John_Mauldin
BY XANDER SNYDER : For decades, the public put its trust in technocrats.
The thinking was that the economy and politics had become too complex for ordinary citizens to understand. And that the best way to handle it was to allow the experts to take over.
They were perceived to be skillful and knowledgeable enough to manage economically and politically important institutions (including banks).
The events of 2008–2009 shattered that belief.
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Wednesday, August 30, 2017
President Trump and ... the Interest Rate Yield Curve? Video / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: EWI
This chart offers a completely different take on the question of why President Trump's approval is falling.
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Sunday, August 27, 2017
Jackson Hole and the Appalachians / Interest-Rates / Central Banks
By: Raul_I_Meijer
The Jackson Hole gathering of central bankers and other economics big shots is on again. They all still like themselves very much. Apart from a pesky inflation problem that none of them can get a grip on, they publicly maintain that they’re doing great, and they’re saving the planet (doing God’s work is already taken).
But the inflation problem lies in the fact that they don’t know what inflation is, and they’re just as knowledgeable when it comes to all other issues. They get sent tons of numbers and stats, and then compare these to their economic models. They don’t understand economics, and they’re not interested in trying to understand it. All they want is for the numbers to fit the models, and if they don’t, get different numbers.
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Wednesday, August 23, 2017
How Planned Fed Rate Increases Impact The National Debt & Deficits / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Dan_Amerman
The United States national debt is currently about $20 trillion, and the federal government is paying some of the lowest interest rates in history on that debt. The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates four times now, and is publicly considering another five increases, for a total increase of roughly 2.25%.
What will be the impact on the national debt and deficits if the interest payments on the debt jump upwards because of the actions of the Fed?
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Sunday, August 20, 2017
Whoever Gets Appointed to the Fed, Expect Negative Rates and QE in the Next Crisis / Interest-Rates / Negative Interest Rates
By: John_Mauldin
Janet Yellen’s current turn at the chair expires in February.
Who will be running the Fed next year, and will it matter? How will new leadership change anything?
Trump could renominate her but hasn’t yet announced a decision or even given a hint.
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Thursday, August 17, 2017
The War on Cash - Rogoff, Orwell and Kafka / Interest-Rates / War on Cash
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Harvard professor and chess grandmaster Kenneth Rogoff has said some pretty out there stuff before, in his role as self-appointed crusader against cash, but apparently he’s not done yet. In fact, he might just be getting started. This time around he sounds like a crossover between George Orwell and Franz Kafka, with a serving of ‘theater of the absurd’ on top. Rogoff wants to give central banks total control over your lives. They must decide what you do with your money. First and foremost, they must make it impossible for you to save your money from their disastrous policies, so they are free to create more mayhem.
Thursday, August 10, 2017
Really Bad Ideas - Government Debt Isn’t Actually Debt / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: John_Rubino
The failure of fiat currency and fractional reserve banking to produce a government-managed utopia is generating very few mea culpas, but lots of rationalizations.
Strangest of all these rationalizations might be the notion that government debt is not really a liability, but an asset. Where personal and business loans are bad if taken to excess, government borrowing is not just good on any scale, but necessary to a healthy economy. Here’s an excerpt from a particularly assertive version of this argument:
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Monday, August 07, 2017
The Death of Abenomics; the Rise of Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / Japanese Interest Rates
By: Michael_Pento
Job approval numbers for Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe are in freefall. Abe's support has now fallen below 30%, and his Liberal Democratic Party recently suffered heavy losses stemming from a slew of scandals revolving around illegal subsidies received by a close associate of his wife.
But as we have seen back on this side of the hemisphere, the public’s interest in these political scandals can be easily overlooked if the underlying economic conditions are favorable. For instance, voters were apathetic when the House introduced impeachment proceedings at the end of 1998 against Bill Clinton for perjury and abuse of power. And Clinton’s perjury scandal was indefensible upon discovery of that infamous Blue Dress. The average citizen, then busily counting their chips from the dot-com casino, were disinterested in Clinton’s wrongdoings because the 1998 economy was booming. Clinton remained in office, and his Democratic party gained seats in the 1998 mid-term elections.
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Thursday, August 03, 2017
The Fed’s Manipulations Have Rendered The Yield Curve Useless As a Recession Indicator / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: John_Mauldin
The yield curve has always had an excellent forecasting record.
The Fed’s own wacky policies may have skewed this early-warning system’s reliability, but an interpretive adjustment can restore its usefulness.
This indicator has allowed me to predict the last two recessions.
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Thursday, August 03, 2017
Raising the US Debt Ceiling Means Jacking Up Future Inflation / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: MoneyMetals
By Stefan Gleason : The dramatic failure of the U.S. Senate’s last-ditch Obamacare repeal effort leaves Republicans so far without a major legislative win since Donald Trump took office. No healthcare reform. No tax reform. No monetary reform. No budgetary reform.
The more things change in Washington... the more they stay the same.
Despite an unconventional outsider in the White House, it’s business as usual for entrenched incumbents of both parties. The next major order of business for the bipartisan establishment is to raise the debt ceiling above $20 trillion.
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Thursday, August 03, 2017
America's Finances in a Better World / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: DeviantInvestor
In a better world we might expect:
- Individuals, corporations, and governments spend no more than their income.
- “Honest” money is used by all, has intrinsic value, retains its purchasing power and is not counterfeited by individuals or bankers.
- Governments and bankers support and encourage “honest” money.
Tuesday, August 01, 2017
The Fed’s Monetary Tantrum Will Push The Economy Into Outright Deflation / Interest-Rates / Deflation
By: John_Mauldin
It is increasingly evident that the US economy is not taking off like some predicted after the election.
President Trump and the Republicans haven’t passed any of the fiscal stimulus measures we hoped to see. Banks and energy companies have got some regulatory relief, and that helps. But it’s a far cry from the sweeping healthcare reform, tax cuts, and infrastructure spending we were promised.
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Tuesday, August 01, 2017
Here’s The Real Reason The Fed Is Making Absurd Monetary Decisions / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: John_Mauldin
I have often written about the Fed's abysmal track record in managing the economy. Here Lacy Hunt and Van Hoisington of Hoisington Investment Management explain the reasons for the Fed's consistently poor track record.
They start by considering the Fed’s “dual mandate,” which sets “the goals of maximum employment, stable prices and moderate long-term interest rates.” (And yes, that is actually three goals, not two.)
But a problem arises, the authors note, “because considerable time elapses between the implementation of the monetary actions designed to follow the mandate and when the impact of those actions take effect on broader business conditions.”
The time lag can easily be three years or longer, with the result that policy changes often end up being pro-rather than countercyclical. To make matters even worse, “the economic risks from adherence to this dual mandate are now much greater than historically due to the economy’s extreme over-indebtedness, poor demographics and a fragile global economy.”
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Sunday, July 30, 2017
368 TRILLION Reasons the Fed Won’t “Normalize” Rates / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Graham_Summers
Many commentators are baffled as to why the Fed has suddenly reversed course. Throughout 2017 the Fed has talked repeatedly about raising rates several times as well as shrinking its balance sheet.
Then in the span of a single month, the Fed just about dropped all of this. Fed Chair Janet Yellen, speaking to Congress, confessed that the Fed is just about done with rate hikes and that any balance sheet reduction will NOT be used to drain liquidity from the system.
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Thursday, July 27, 2017
Why Surging UK Household Debt Will Cause The Next Crisis / Interest-Rates / UK Debt
By: GoldCore
– Easy credit offered by UK banks is endangering “everyone else in the economy”
– UK banks are “dicing with the spiral of complacency” again
– Bank of England official believes household debt is good in moderation
– Household debt now equals 135% of household income
– Now costs half of average income to raise a child
– Real incomes not keeping up with real inflation
– 41% of those in debt are in full-time work
– £1.537 trillion owed by the end of May 2017
Wednesday, July 26, 2017
Central Banks ARE The Crisis / Interest-Rates / Central Banks
By: Raul_I_Meijer
If there’s one myth -and there are many- that we should invalidate in the cross-over world of politics and economics, it‘s that central banks have saved us from a financial crisis. It’s a carefully construed myth, but it’s as false as can be. Our central banks have caused our financial crises, not saved us from them.
It really should -but doesn’t- make us cringe uncontrollably to see Bank of England governor-for-hire Mark Carney announce -straightfaced- that:
Read full article... Read full article...“A decade after the start of the global financial crisis, G20 reforms are building a safer, simpler and fairer financial system. “We have fixed the issues that caused the last crisis. They were fundamental and deep-seated, which is why it was such a major job.”
Friday, July 21, 2017
Are Central Bankers Secretly Terrified? / Interest-Rates / Central Banks
By: Graham_Summers
Central Bankers are absolutely terrified.
In the last month, both Fed President Janet Yellen and ECB President Mario Draghi have issued somewhat hawkish statements, only to turn around within 48 hours and walk back their comments.
Again, two of the most powerful Central Bankers in the world couldn’t even last three days being hawks.
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Thursday, July 20, 2017
The Fed May Show Trump No Love / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Peter_Schiff
Typically, U.S. Presidents are wary of claiming stock market performance as a referendum on their success. Most have seemed to understand that taking credit also means accepting blame, and no one would want to make the tortured argument that the positive moves reflect well on their presidency but that the negative moves do not. But Donald Trump has shown no reluctance to make any argument that suits his political purpose of the day, no matter its absurdity, and no matter if he has to contradict the arguments he made last year, or last week. Perhaps he assumes, as most investors seem to, that the risks are minimal because the Federal Reserve will jump in to save the markets if things turn bad. But in binding his performance so closely to the markets he overlooks the possibility that the Fed will be far less charitable to him than it was to Obama.