Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, June 13, 2009
U.S. Fed in Trouble as Falling Dollar Risks Bond Investors Revolt / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Submissions
Frank Shostak writes: A growing concern for Fed policy makers is a weakening in the US dollar against major currencies. The price of the euro in US-dollar terms climbed from a low of $1.27 in November last year to around $1.41 in May and $1.43 in early June – an increase of 12.6% from November. The major currencies dollar index fell to 78.89 in May from 82.3 in April – a fall of 4.1%. If the declining trend in the US dollar were to consolidate, this could cause foreign holders of US-dollar assets to divest into non-dollar-denominated assets and precious metals. This in turn could spark another financial crisis.
Saturday, June 13, 2009
Bond Yields Soaring is Not Always an Inflationary Event / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market
By: Adam_Brochert
Bond yields soaring is not always an inflationary event. The traditional teaching is that rising bond yields indicate economic recovery and/or inflation. This is true until it isn't. The problem is that the best parallel for when it ain't true is what's happening right now. Damn, this investing stuff gets complicated when you look through actual history.
Friday, June 12, 2009
Technical Rally in Treasury Bonds TLT ETF / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE: TLT) continues to climb off of yest.'s new low of 87.45 (that occurred ahead of the 30 year auction results), which has triggered buy signals in my work (above 89.30/40) for upside continuation to 92.00 next. Has anything changed that has all of a sudden made longer term Treasury bonds more attractive FUNDAMENTALLY? For the time being, the upmove is mostly considered a sling-shot from a very oversold condition.
Friday, June 12, 2009
Is Short Sterling Topping Out? / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Seven_Days_Ahead
The Technical Trader’s view:
Thursday, June 11, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bonds Volatility and Interest Rate Swaps / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The rising long-term USTreasury Bond yield continues to capture attention. The breakout chart for the 10-year Treasury shot up to 3.75% last week, but zoomed to touch 4.0% this week. Less attention has been directed at the short-term USTreasury Bill yields. What was a reasonably steady 2-year TBill yield in the 0.80% to 1.0% range has made a big move to 1.35% suddenly. Few have noticed, since mortgage rates are tied to the 10-year USTreasury. Much talk came in the last few weeks that China was rebalancing its USTreasury hoard, selling some long-term maturity bonds and buying shorter-term maturity bills. The rise in bond yields has actually been attributed to a USEconomic recovery, but that is absurd on its face, with a dozen statistics to debunk it. This China story was intended to mask the real events, to blame them in part for the US bond instability, and to divert attention away from a potentially important threat. Not only has the housing market stalled, with new mortgages and refinanced loans hitting a brick wall.
Thursday, June 11, 2009
Profit from Rising Interest Rates with ETFs / Interest-Rates / Exchange Traded Funds
By: Money_and_Markets
Ron Rowland writes: Have you looked at interest rates lately? They’re soaring! Back on March 18, the 10-year Treasury bond yield dropped as low as 2.54 percent. This week it went above 3.90 — a huge move in less than three months. The same thing is happening in all but the very shortest maturities.
Thursday, June 11, 2009
U.S. Government to Issue $2 Trillion of Debt This Year / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Axel_Merk
In our estimate, the U.S. Treasury will have to raise over $2 trillion dollars this year to finance new obligations. In addition, over $2 trillion in government debt held by the public is coming due and has to be re-financed this year.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
Anatomy Of A Treasury Bond Market Top / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Guy_Lerner
One of the major themes that I have been highlighting on this blog since its inception 6 months ago is the potential for a secular trend change in long term Treasury bonds. Starting back in December, 2008, there was a high likelihood of higher yields and lower bond prices. Last month provided technical confirmation that the top is in for Treasury bonds, and we should see yield pressures in the long end of the curve lasting at least 12 months.
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
Parabolic U.S. Treasury Yield Curve Warning of Hyper Inflation / Interest-Rates / HyperInflation
By: Gary_Dorsch
Everything depends upon proper judgment. Of ten people who examine the same chart, or listen to the same speech, each person may well understand it differently - perhaps only one of them will understand it correctly. How then should traders interpret the shape of the US Treasury yield curve, which has gone parabolic in recent weeks, steepening to its highest level since 2004? Similarly, in Australia, the Treasury yield curve is at its steepest in history.
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
Printing Debt not Money / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Adam_Brochert
We often hear and read about the government “printing money” like there’s no tomorrow. Our federal government has certainly passed out enough money to the people who got us into this mess that it seems as though hyperinflation is theoretically possible. But every US Dollar printed in our current fiat monetary system is actually a debt.
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
Regional Central Banker Blows the Whistle on the Fed / Interest-Rates / Central Banks
By: LewRockwell
Thomas Hoenig is the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. In a recent speech, he laid out a scenario for what the Federal Reserve ought to do and what the U.S. government ought to do, and what will happen if they refuse. You can read it here.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 09, 2009
As Treasury Bond Yields Rise, Why Are Other Yields Falling? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
There is a lot in the press these days about how the recent rise in Treasury bond yields has the potential to abort a nascent economic recovery. To this I say, nonsense! Chart 1 shows that as the Treasury bond yield has risen in recent weeks, the yields on privately-issued debt have declined in absolute levels. Chart 2 shows that the stock market has been trending higher since March as the Treasury bond yield has risen.
Tuesday, June 09, 2009
Mortgage Borrowers Suffer as Lenders Charging Extortionate Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / Mortgages
By: MoneySupermarket
Despite the Base Rate continuing to hold at 0.5 per cent, providers are increasing average mortgage rates, and the margin above the Libor rate is rising, proving that the Bank of England is increasingly toothless when it comes to regulating the cost of mortgages, with lenders increasing profit margins at the expense of their customers.
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Tuesday, June 09, 2009
Seasonal's and Fundamentals Supportive of Treasury Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The bond market sold off another four and a half points during the course of last week. Market participants seem to be convinced that the worst is behind us as they were busy selling more bonds and buying whatever else they could get their dirty paws on. This week there is another set of 3, 10 and 30 year Treasury auctions on deck. That ought to hold the market back at the outset, but perhaps not after Thursday’s long bond auction.
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Monday, June 08, 2009
U.S. Debt Crisis as Treasury Bond Prices Collapsing and Interest Rates Surging / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Money_and_Markets
Martin Weiss writes: Just as we’ve been warning, the United States Treasury is the next and largest victim of this great debt crisis.
Right now, the Treasury’s finances are collapsing … its bond prices plunging … its interest rates surging.
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Saturday, June 06, 2009
Huge Budget Deficit Producing New Debt to Force Interest Rates Higher / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: John_Mauldin
The New, New Normal
A Different Perspective on Health Care
Staying Rich in the New Normal
We are coming to a critical inflection point, perhaps the most critical point that we have had in 70 years for the US and to a great extent the global economy. The choices we make (or that Congress and the Fed make for us) will affect not just our investment portfolios but business and our jobs for a very long time. Last week I talked about the three paths we face as a nation. I want to go back to that theme and expand upon it. You need to clearly understand what the risks are so that you can interpret the actions and data that will be coming at us in the next few quarters. I am feeling a little tired today, so I am going to take the liberty to reproduce Bill Gross's latest comments as well, which are somewhat in line with my own.
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Friday, June 05, 2009
Team Obama Charm Offensive on U.S. Treasury Bond Holders / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Peter_Schiff
This week, Team Obama took their dog and pony show on the road. Treasury Secretary Geithner went to China, Fed Chairman Bernanke to Capitol Hill, and the President himself began a Mideast tour in Saudi Arabia. This full-court press is not coincidental, and comes just as the federal government has begun unloading trillions of dollars in new Treasury obligations. The coordinated charm offensive is meant to assure the world-at-large that the United States can repay these obligations without destroying the dollar.
Thursday, June 04, 2009
Germanies Merkel Cautions European Central Bankers on Debt Monetization / Interest-Rates / Euro-Zone
By: Axel_Merk
German Chancellor Angela Merkel caused a stir when warning the European Central Bank not to engage in asset purchases. She has received a lot of attention as it is an unwritten rule not to infringe upon the independence of central bankers. While we would typically agree that the independence of central bankers is of paramount importance, we believe it is not only appropriate, but also her duty to speak out. Let us elaborate.
Wednesday, June 03, 2009
Why Interest Rates are Rising / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Marty_Chenard
Today ... I must speak about long term interest rates and mortgages.
Yesterday, the 30 year yields closed at 44.89. At the end of December, the 30 year yields were only 25.19 ... that was a significant rise (see the chart below). 30 year mortgage rates got down as low as 4.5%, and yesterday they ranged from 5.25% to 5.375%.
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Wednesday, June 03, 2009
Geithner's Debt Dialogue With China, but the U.S. Dollar May Still be Doomed / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Money_Morning
Jason Simpkins writes:Two days of talks between U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner and Chinese officials culminated yesterday (Tuesday) with both parties reaffirming their confidence in the value of the dollar, and the viability of U.S. debt.