Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, December 23, 2009
Bernanke Pushing His Luck on U.S. Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: John_Browne
The vast majority of economists now say that the recession is over. Many expect nominal GDP growth as high as four percent in 2010. Now, with the economy assumed to be back on stable footing, some in the private sector are starting to talk about inflation.
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bonds Spell Trouble for Bernanke Low Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Marty_Chenard
Bernanke is vowing to keep interest rates low ... but, can he?
We say this because the market is not satisfied with receiving low yields when risk levels are perceived to be rising. That clearly showed up on the 10 year yields yesterday when the yield jumped up to 36.82.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
Did the Fed Monetize by Stealth? / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Andrew_Butter
This is a chart of the Fed’s balance sheet that I lifted from an article by Tim
Iacono: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article15004.html.
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
U.S. Bond Market Holds Bottom / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The bond market was a touch stronger last week as bonds managed to hold the bottom of the recent range again. The fundamental news was a mixed bag, the FOMC offered no surprises so as a result we had a fairly uneventful week with a narrow trading range heading into the holiday season. The yield curve is not budging from its record steep shape as the Fed made it clear again that they don’t plan to hike their benchmark overnight rate any time soon.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 21, 2009
Why the Fed Will Be Sidelined in 2010 / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Michael_Pento
The release of the Non-Farm Payroll Report for November along with the latest inflation data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics placed further into question the Federal Reserve’s free money policy. The spate of less bad news on the economy and increases in certain price levels has brought some of the bond vigilantes back from hibernation, while the cacophony from the hard-money guys (me chief among them) to raise interest rates is growing yet louder.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 21, 2009
U.S. Debt Totals $133 Trillion, China Prime Beneficiary of Fed Money Printing / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Larry_Edelson
Last week I suggested you to take some hefty profits off the table: Specifically, up to a 91.69% gain on the ProShares Ultra Real Estate ETF (URE), recommended in my June 29 column. That’s almost double your money if you acted on it, in a tad under six months. Not bad!
What’s more, it comes on top of six other recommendations I issued in this column — and closed out — since April, five of them with gains as high as 68.31%, and just one loser!
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 21, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bonds Hit, TBT on Rise / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
We have been discussing for weeks that the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year T-Bond ETF (NYSE: TBT) is warning us that longer-term rates are heading higher, but we just don’t know exactly which of the many reasons will come to the fore. Today, bonds are getting hit, perhaps because the healthcare bill in all its splendor, expense and unintended consequences looks like a done deal.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 21, 2009
Government Reports Reveal Economy Faces Unprecedented Risk of Rising Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Martin_D_Weiss
Never before have I seen a broader range of investment opportunities as those opening up early in January!
But if you’re among those throwing caution to the wind … or if you’re slashing your keep-safe holdings to practically zero, then take a long, hard look at the …
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 18, 2009
Crumbling U.S. Treasury Bond Market Suggests Spike in Interest Rates 2010 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Larson
The holiday season is here — and in just a couple of weeks, 2009 will fade into the history books. I truly hope that you and your family enjoy these happy times.
But before I sign off for the year, I feel obligated to address one of the biggest threats to your wealth that’s looming in 2010. I’m talking about the very real prospect of “failed” Treasury auctions, plunging bond prices, and a big spike in long-term interest rates.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 18, 2009
UK Government Bonds, Gilts On Edge of Bear Market Triggers / Interest-Rates / UK Debt
By: Seven_Days_Ahead
The Technical Trader’s view:
Thursday, December 17, 2009
Fed Tightening U.S. Interest Rates? Give Us a Break! / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Axel_Merk
At the end of its scheduled two-day meeting, the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) confirmed it will leave its target range for the federal funds rate unchanged and is on schedule to phase out various special liquidity programs. The Fed also confirmed it will continue to buy mortgage backed-securities (MBS) and expects to gradually slow the pace of these purchases; the Fed expects the entire $1.25 billion of MBS purchases to be executed by the end of the first quarter of 2010.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
Could the Fed Hike U.S. Interest Rates Sooner than Expected? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Gary_Dorsch
One more Dance before Midnight Strikes, “As the old saying goes, what the wise man does at the beginning, fools do in the end,” said Warren Buffett, at Berkshire Hathaway’s Annual Meeting, in May 2006. “It’s like Cinderella at the ball. You know that at midnight everything’s going to turn back to pumpkins and mice. But you look around and say, one more dance, and so does everyone else. Everyone thinks they’ll get out at midnight. The party does get more fun, dance partners get prettier, - one more glass of champagne. And besides, there are no clocks on the wall. And then suddenly, the clock strikes 12, - and everything turns back to pumpkins and mice,” the sage of Omaha said.
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
Why You Should Expect U.S. Interest Rates to Rise Soon / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Claus_Vogt
Last December, the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond fell to 2 percent, the lowest level in 40 years. The financial and economic crisis had investors heading for a safe harbor … and Fed members panicked. Deflation was the buzz word of the time.
If market forces had been allowed to take over and purge the system of all the imbalances, malinvestments, and excesses that characterized the bubble years, a deflationary wave would have swept the world. And after this sharp and deep cleansing process, a new healthy recovery would have begun.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 11, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bonds Interest Rate Yield Curve Steepest Since 1980 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Shedlock
The bond market is starting to show signs of concern over budget deficits and the corresponding supply of treasuries. Please consider Treasury Yield Curve Steepest Since at Least 1980 After Auction.
Thursday, December 10, 2009
Short Treasury Bond TBT ETF on the Rise / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
As the market awaits the results of the 30-year bond auction today, let’s notice that the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE: TBT) is climbing towards a confrontation with the Sep-Dec resistance line, now at 48.25, which if hurdled and sustained should trigger additional strength that tests the prior rally peak at 48.57. The 48.57 level is important technically because if the TBT’s take out that resistance plateau, the Aug-Dec rounded baselike pattern will project an eventual target zone of 53.70-54.20.
Tuesday, December 08, 2009
Bankrupting Britain's AAA Credit Rating at Risk / Interest-Rates / UK Debt
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The credit ratings agency Moody's in late as usual move woke up to the fact that Britain's public sector net debt looks set to mushroom to more than 100% of GDP and therefore threatens Britain's AAA credit rating status, which currently stands at AAA "resilient" below that of AAA "resistant" as enjoyed by the likes of Germany and France. Especially as Britain lags virtually all other major economies in terms of economic recovery.
Tuesday, December 08, 2009
Banks Cut UK Mortgage Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / Mortgages
By: MoneyFacts
Mortgage lenders have continued to cut fixed rates, causing the average two year fixed mortgage rate to continue to tumble.
Last week Moneyfacts.co.uk reported that the average two year fixed had fallen below 5.00% for the first time since June 2009, but since then rates have fallen further, standing at 4.86% today.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 06, 2009
Australian Luxury of High Interest Rates, Should the U.S. Follow Suit? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Oakshire_Financial
Many are quick to question the logic behind Australia's recent pattern of raising interest rates, citing the risk involved with this strategy and the "danger" it puts Australia's economy in by lowering housing demand and making financing more difficult for businesses. Some call it an outright mistake.
Boo hoo. The finance gurus of the world sound like a bunch of children jealous that their little brother opened a Christmas present that they asked for. 'Tis the season.
Sunday, December 06, 2009
David Malpass: Near Zero Interest Rates are Hurting the Economy / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Trader_Mark
Following up some excellent commentary he has been doing as a guest on CNBC (see video here) [Oct 16, 2009: The Inverse Correlation Between Stocks and the US Dollar in 1 Chart] David Malpass makes an eloquent argument on how near zero interest rates are hurting the US economy in a Wall Street Journal opinion piece.
Saturday, December 05, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bond Yields Setting Up for Advance / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The 10-Year Treasury Bond yield commanded our attention this past week, and we see it as one of the most important charts entering 2010. Why? Purely from a technical perspective, let's notice that three distinct instances in the past 12 months, yield pressed to 3.50% or lower, only to see an upside reversal back above 3.50% very quickly thereafter. In other words, the "beachball effect" kicks in under 3.50%. With the foregoing as a backdrop, let's also notice that yield has been declining since June even though nonfarm payrolls have been improving.