Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, July 15, 2011
Europe's Debt Default Crisis: It's the CDS, Stupid / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Adrian_Ash
"The constraints imposed by market forces [on government deficits inside a single-currency union] might either be too slow and weak, or too sudden and disruptive." - The Delors Committee report on European monetary union, getting it exactly right in 1989
GREEK BONDS have lost half to three-quarters of their face value. Six national strikes have all ended in violence already this year. In the three months to April, public investment spending fell 42% from the start of 2010, but total spending still rose – and tax revenues sank – forcing the budget deficit still wider as the economy shrank 5.5% year-on-year.
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Thursday, July 14, 2011
Moody's Puts U.S. AAA Credit Rating at Risk of Downgrade / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Mike_Shedlock
At long last the bond vigilantes have a spotlight on US debt. Please consider Japan Stock Futures Fall as Yen Rises as Moody’s Reviews U.S Credit Rating
Read full article... Read full article...Moody’s Investors Service put the U.S., rated Aaa since 1917, under review for a credit-rating downgrade for the first time since 1995 on concern the government’s $14.3 trillion debt limit will not be raised in time to prevent a missed payment of interest or principal on outstanding bonds and notes even though the risk remains low. The rating would likely be reduced to the Aa range and there is no assurance that Moody’s would return its top rating even if a default is quickly cured.
Thursday, July 14, 2011
Fed Tells It Like It Is... / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Jack_Steiman
And what it is isn't pretty at all. He said he's disappointed at how things are moving along and expects recent weakness to persist for a while longer than he'd like it to. When the fed makes a statement like that there's only one thing left for him to do. Be more inappropriate, of course. Keep the printing presses rolling day and night. Print those dollar bills as if they are the holy grail. He has hinted that there's a reasonable chance we will actually be seeing a QE3 program even though QE1 and QE2 did absolutely nothing for the economy other than to put it further into debt. He also talked about too big to fail meaning there will be no free markets. He will control what he needs to when he feels he wants to.
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Thursday, July 14, 2011
Bernanke Willings to Implement QE3, if Necessary / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Asha_Bangalore
Bernanke's testimony this morning maintains optimism about the second-half of 2011. He noted that "once temporary shocks that have been holding down economic activity pass, we expect to again see the effects of policy accommodation reflected in stronger economic activity and job creation." The Fed's projections of economic growth have been published following the June21-22 FOMC meeting. The Fed expects the economy to grow 2.7% to 2.9% on a Q4/Q4 basis in 2011 after a 1.9% increase in the first quarter and an expected gain of a little over 2.0% in the second quarter. At the same time, Bernanke's remarks were indicative of the Fed's willingness to provide additional monetary policy support to the economy, if necessary:
Thursday, July 14, 2011
The Debt Ceiling Reality Show Must Go On / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: James_Quinn
The Debt Ceiling Reality Show is winding down to its dramatic conclusion on August 2. I think Fox should capitalize on the drama by gathering the American Idol judges to vote on the best performance by a political hack. We can have Ryan Seacrest announce on August 1 at 11:55 pm that the winner is – THE WALL STREET MONIED INTERESTS.
Thursday, July 14, 2011
United States on the Road to Perdition / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: David_Galland
David Galland interviews Terry Coxon, The Casey Report : Terry Coxon worked side by side with best-selling author Harry Browne for years and is a rare expert in the arcane study of monetary systems. His remarks at this juncture in time, a time that might end up labeled in the history books as “Money Runs Wild,” are especially germane.
Thursday, July 14, 2011
Bernanke - Money for Nothing and Dollars For Free / Interest-Rates / Central Banks
By: Axel_Merk
Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Bernanke, in a verbal duel with Representative Ron Paul, provided insult to injury to hard money appreciating investors. When asked whether gold should be considered money, Bernanke replied: “no”; when further quizzed why central banks then hold gold reserves, Bernanke brushed the question off, suggesting gold is simply held because of tradition.
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Wednesday, July 13, 2011
U.S. Debt Ceiling Show Baloney / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Gary_North
The mainstream media are all a-twitter. Speaker of the House John Boehner has given up in the President's offer of a solution to the deficit crisis: a $4 trillion deficit reduction package. Oh, the horror! Oh, the pigheadedness of the Republicans!
Oh, the chicanery of the media. Maybe you have noticed the game that the media manipulators play: they announce a Big Government Deal in the headline, only to add later in the story these words: "over the next decade." This is the baloney factor.
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Wednesday, July 13, 2011
Could There Be QE3? / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
The minutes of the June 21-22 FOMC meeting released today hinted at the possibility of another round of QE. To wit, "a few members noted that, depending on how economic conditions evolve, the Committee might have to consider providing additional monetary policy stimulus, especially if economic growth remained too slow to meaningfully reduce the unemployment rate in the medium run." A couple more employment reports of similar tone to the June one might cause the wording to change from a "few members" to "most members." But I do not think there will be a serious discussion of another round of QE until the fourth quarter of this year.
Tuesday, July 12, 2011
Will Bernanke Hint At QE3? / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Asha_Bangalore
Chairman Bernanke presented his view about the economy last on June 7, 2011. He is scheduled to testify about the U.S. economy on July 13 and 14, 2011. On June 7, Chairman Bernanke, indicated that "U.S. economic growth so far this year looks to have been somewhat slower than expected." Incoming economic reports, in fact, do not present an improvement in business conditions since June 7.
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Monday, July 11, 2011
Defaulting on the Fed's Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Robert_Murphy
Ron Paul recently made (another) splash among economic pundits with his suggestion that the Treasury simply cancel the $1.6 trillion in its debt held by the Federal Reserve. Many of Paul's longstanding critics seized on the proposal as reckless and said it was further evidence that Paul doesn't understand financial markets. However, Paul received unexpected praise from the progressive economist Dean Baker.
Monday, July 11, 2011
European Debt Crisis Sees Government Bond Spreads Hit Record Highs / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Mike_Shedlock
10-Year Government Bond Yields and Spreads vs. Germany
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Monday, July 11, 2011
The Euro Debt Crisis and You / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Fred_Sheehan
Greece may seem a long way from Newport Beach, California. Well, it is. But, we live in the global village, or some other dim construction. In his June 16, 2011, edition of The Credit Strategist, Michael Lewitt explained "the interconnected nature of global financial markets render Europe's problems the world's problems.... [T]here is no longer any periphery."
Sunday, July 10, 2011
Why QE2 Failed: The Money All Went Offshore / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Ellen_Brown
On June 30, QE2 ended with a whimper. The Fed’s second round of “quantitative easing” involved $600 billion created with a computer keystroke for the purchase of long-term government bonds. But the government never actually got the money, which went straight into the reserve accounts of banks, where it still sits today. Worse, it went into the reserve accounts of FOREIGN banks, on which the Federal Reserve is now paying 0.25% interest.
Sunday, July 10, 2011
On the Road to U.S. Government Debt Default, August 2nd Judgement Day / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Gary_North
A great default is behind us. The public is unaware of this. If you read this report, you will no longer be unaware of it.
The ease with which this default took place should serve as a warning: there will be additional, much larger defaults. Again, the public does not understand this. The main one will be Social Security. The program is now in the red: more money going out than comiomng in. But most people still cannot believe that the program really will go belly-up. That's why I produced a video on this.
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Saturday, July 09, 2011
Central Banks Monetary Policy Week in Review - 9 July 2011 / Interest-Rates / Central Banks
By: CentralBankNews
The past week in monetary policy saw interest rate decisions from 14 central banks around the world, of which 7 made changes in their monetary policy settings. Those that increased interest rates were: Sweden +25bps to 2.00%, China +25bps to 6.56%, the EU +25bps to 1.50%, and Denmark +25bps to 1.55%. While those that cut rates included Vietnam, which cut its OMO rate -100bps to 14.00%, and Ghana -50bps to 12.50%.
Saturday, July 09, 2011
Real Bills Doctrine, You Have Never Ever Seen An Elephant Fly / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2011
By: Professor_Emeritus
In the 19th century a saying, long since forgotten, was current on Lombard Street: "There is nothing easier in the world than the banker's profession - provided that he can tell a real bill and a mortgage apart."
Friday, July 08, 2011
The China Debt $1.5 trillion, Is there a problem? / Interest-Rates / China Economy
By: James_Loong
It is a mystery. US analysts and rating agencies are increasingly worried about Chinese debt problem. But try and hunt as much as we do, we cant find a rationale for this.
Friday, July 08, 2011
Is The Irish Debt Attractive? / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Jan_Kaska
According to a Bloomberg article, Sandor Steverink, the Europe’s best-performing sovereign debt fund manager over the last decade, asserted that when the Irish debt gets downgraded to junk, it is time to become a buyer. Steverink said he prefers Irish bonds to Portuguese ones as the country’s debt burden was caused by the banks and the country doesn’t have the structural problems of southern Europe’s economies. Above all, Ireland also has more potential to export its way out of trouble. We very much agree with such assessment and believe that once Ireland gets downgraded to junk, forced sellers will create a wonderful opportunity to buy.
Thursday, July 07, 2011
The Psychology of Bond Market Investors / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market
By: Michael_Pento
Those who take issue with the outlook of Austrian economists in general, and Euro Pacific Capital in particular, have pointed to the persistence of low bond yields as proof that our philosophy does not hold water. We argue that as the United States takes on ever more debt and prints greater quantities of dollars, that buyers of our debt will demand higher rates of interest to compensate for greater risk.