Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, August 05, 2011
U.S. Debt: Has its Past Become its Future? / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Casey_Research
Frank Trotter, President, EverBank Direct writes: Friends who know that I speak frequently about global economics have been calling to see what I think about the smackdown arguments over spending in Washington. I have surprised them all by saying that it’s really an empty record. Well, I suppose there is some kind of odd entertainment factor in the recent public debates about the U.S. debt ceiling.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 05, 2011
Dark Window Debt Default / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Andrew_McKillop
The US debt crisis, with its see-through debt ceiling and dark invisible floor, so far below, has very serious rivals in Europe. Relative to GDP, the USA's sovereign debt is either less extreme, comparable to, or not far ahead of sovereign debt load in not-so-small Italy, France, Germany, UK and Spain. Apart from Germany, the other four members of Europe's Big-5 are very close to recession, even using their own official and doctored economic data. But needless to say, these are not normal times and hope, or at least illusion is more important than ever, to keep the party going one more day.
Friday, August 05, 2011
German Central Bank Goes to War with ECB Over Resumption of Bond Purchases / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Mike_Shedlock
ECB Resumes Bond Buys; Open Feud Between German Central Bank and the ECB; Implications of "Trichet Out, Draghi In"
Yet Another Open Feud Between German Central Bank and the ECB on Bond Purchases;
Thursday, August 04, 2011
U.S. National Debt Heading for $23 Trillion by 2021 / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes:
There was a lot of back-patting in Washington this week after U.S. President Barack Obama signed a debt-ceiling deal that he and members of Congress claim will reduce the national debt.
But here's the truth: This deal does nothing to reduce America's debt burden. In fact, the $14 trillion we owe now could every easily exceed $23 trillion by 2021.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 04, 2011
Debt Ceiling or QE3 in Disguise? Gold Smells the Rats / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Andy_Sutton
With the debt deal now signed and the crisis proclaimed to be over by the government and the mainstream lapdog media, it is time to take a serious look at the debauchery that was just perpetrated on the American people – again. The names have barely changed from 2008. The tactics certainly haven’t. The magic of government accounting has had another chapter added to it as something that actually adds to the deficit and requires money be borrowed on its behalf is now a ‘cut'. Isn’t that just special? There are several big myths about the past few weeks that we need to uncover before anyone is really going to understand what is really going on here.
Thursday, August 04, 2011
Is it a Sea Change if Rating Agencies Stick a Lower Rating for U.S. Sovereign Debt? / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Asha_Bangalore
The debt ceiling has been raised through 2012 and political drama related to the debt ceiling is unlikely to be repeated soon. Fitch and Moody’s indicated that the coveted AAA status of U.S. debt remains in place with a possibility of downgrades tied to the nature of fiscal consolidation Congress may deliver. As of this writing, S&P has not made public its opinion, but the new law does not meet its requirement of a $4 trillion reduction of the projected deficits indicated last month. Federal government debt (gross) of the United States stood at 93% of GDP in 2010 (see Chart 1). The Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) projections show this number at 105% by 2021.
Thursday, August 04, 2011
QE3 Coming Soon? Treasury TIPS Say No / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Tony_Pallotta
Using the Treasury TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities) one can determine inflation expectation simply by subtracting the treasury yield for the same maturity. As an example.
10 Year TIPS currently yields 0.29% (inflation adjusted yield)
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 04, 2011
Italy Bond Market Failure to Trigger Bailout as ECB to Become Buyer of "Only" Resort / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Mike_Shedlock
A critical Italian government bond auction is coming up Thursday, August 4. That bond auction is highly likely to fail. However, if it does fail, don't expect results to be reported that way.
Wednesday, August 03, 2011
The New World Order of Global Sovereigns / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: EconMatters
The U.S. debt ceiling political soap has finally come to an end. With the debt deal done, the U.S. has dodged a major bullet of a debt default, but may not be out of the woods yet for a sovereign credit downgrade. Nevertheless, regardless whether one or more of the Big 3 agencies (S&P, Moody's and Fitch) would really deal a downgrade to the U.S., it is the markets that holds the key to a sovereign's credit worthiness based on its ability to manage a balanced budget, implementing proper monetary and fiscal policies. From that perspective, the markets probably have already spoken.
Tuesday, August 02, 2011
U.S. Debt Cut Deal is Just Smoke & Mirrors / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Jeff_Berwick
That's it? This is the deal? This is what they've been supposedly fighting over for months?
We'll get to the exact details in a moment but let's start by doing a fantasy comparison of the same "cuts" being made in a format that the regular man on the street can understand.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 02, 2011
What’s not for the WSJ to Like about the Debt-Ceiling Legislation? / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
Milton Friedman taught us that the real economic cost of government is not how it raises its funds – taxes or borrowing -- but how many funds in toto it raises. That is, according to Friedman, the real economic cost of government is how much it spends. The pending legislation on the increase in the U.S. public debt ceiling dictates that federal outlays be reduced in the coming 10 fiscal years. So, the editorial board of the WSJ should be ecstatic about the outcome of this debate about the debt-ceiling increase, right? Federal spending will be decreased. But I suspect that very shortly the op-ed page of the WSJ will be complaining about this pending debt-ceiling legislation.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, July 31, 2011
A U.S. Sovereign Debt Downgrade Is No Laughing Matter for China or Anybody Else / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: EconMatters
With a stalemate heading into the weekend, the debt drama of the United States is going down to the wire, and when the clock strikes twelve midnight on August 2 (countdown clock at our homepage), the world's largest economy could be looking at an unprecedented technical default. The current consensus suggests that although a total default is nothing but a remote possibility, the damage is already done to the dollar, and a sovereign debt downgrade could be inevitable even after the debt ceiling deadlock is resolved.
Saturday, July 30, 2011
United States Defaulted Long Ago, Approaching Final Collapse of our Credit Expansion Boom / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: James_Quinn
“There is no means of avoiding a final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.” – Ludwig von Mises
Thursday, July 28, 2011
The Fed’s Funny Money / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Dr_Ron_Paul
Today's hearing is the second in a series examining the relationship between Federal Reserve policy and the performance of the United States economy. Today we are receiving testimony from the Federal Reserve banks. Of the half-dozen Reserve banks we contacted, only President Hoenig was willing to testify in front of this subcommittee, and we welcome him here today.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 28, 2011
The Death of the "Risk-Free" Investment / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes:
There's an old investing axiom that says "there's no such thing as a free lunch" - which basically tells us we can't earn a profit without taking some risk.
And whether or not the United States defaults on its debt when the federal government hits its debt ceiling on Tuesday, the threat by Standard & Poor's to downgrade the United States' top-tier AAA credit rating means there will also be no such thing as a "risk-free" investment.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 26, 2011
Greek Debt Bailout Might Succeed, If All Goes According to Plan / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis Bailouts
By: Victoria_Marklew
With the second bailout agreement for Greece announced on Friday (July 22), the EU has stumbled toward a new level of institutional development. However, Greece still does not have a sustainable funding package in place; and the easing of contagion pressures on other Euro-zone members may be short-lived.
Monday, July 25, 2011
U.S. Political Leaders Playing Dangerous Game with Nation’s Debt Rating / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2011
By: Chris_Ciovacco
Leaders from both parties in Washington are playing a dangerous political game with the nation’s AAA credit rating. The first self-imposed deadline of July 22 to have a framework of a debt-ceiling deal in place has already passed. The second and firmer deadline of August 2 is a little more than a week away. Despite Standard and Poor’s warnings of a possible debt downgrade if realistic deficit-reduction plans are not agreed upon, the Wall Street Journal included the following in their update from Sunday night:
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 25, 2011
The $1 Billion Armageddon Trade Placed Against the United States Bond Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Money_Morning
Jack Barnes writes :
Someone dropped a bomb on the bond market Thursday - a $1 billion Armageddon trade betting the United States will lose its AAA credit rating.
In one moment, an invisible trader placed a single trade that moved the most liquid debt market in the world.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 25, 2011
US Debt Default Will Punish Pensions / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Barry_M_Ferguson
As America debates its debt, its debt ceiling, and the indebtedness of future generations, let’s make sure we all understand what we are talking about. Also, let’s look at an example of how the debt permeates through our society.
Sunday, July 24, 2011
How to Prepare for and Profit From the Stalled U.S. Debt Limit Talks / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Investment_U
Marc Lichtenfeld writes: Last November, I wrote about how to protect yourself from an impending crash that would take place this year – if the threat of failure to raise the debt ceiling seemed real.
As of right now, most people expect some resolution to be reached in the next few weeks before the August 2 debt-hike deadline.
Read full article... Read full article...