Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Sunday, June 16, 2019

Gold Stocks Bull Upleg Mounting / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks have surged powerfully over the past few weeks, challenging upleg highs.  Traders started returning to this small contrarian sector as gold blasted back above the psychologically-crucial $1300 line.  While such early-summer strength is atypical, gold miners’ technicals, sentiment, and fundamentals all support more gains to come.  Gold stocks need to mean revert to much-higher price levels.

Traders usually track gold-stock fortunes with this sector’s most-popular exchange-traded fund, the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF.  Launched in May 2006, this was the maiden gold-stock ETF.  That big first-mover advantage has helped propel GDX to sector dominance.  This week its net assets of $9.7b ran 46.5x larger than the next-biggest 1x-long major-gold-miners ETF!  GDX is this sector’s leading benchmark.

And it sure didn’t look pretty in May, with traders wanting nothing to do with gold stocks.  GDX spent the great majority of last month languishing near its 200-day moving average.  Just a few weeks ago on May 29th, GDX closed at $20.42.  That was down 3.2% year-to-date, much worse than gold’s own slight 0.2% YTD decline.  The gold stocks were really out of favor, just like the metal they mine which fuels their profits.

Sunday, June 16, 2019

Gold Price Seasonal Trend Analysis - Video / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is my third video in this series that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for the Gold Price into September 2019.

SEASONAL ANALYSIS

Saturday, June 15, 2019

US Dollar Gold Trend Analysis / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The following chart illustrates that there is a strong inverse relationship between the US Dollar and Gold. When the Dollar rises, the gold price tends to fall and visa versa, it should not be surprising given that the Gold is priced in dollars. The only recent deviation from the correlation was October to December which coincided with stock market weakness i.e. SAFEHAVEN buying of the Dollar AND Gold. So the safe haven buying that gold bugs obsess over tends to be temporary at times of stock market stress.

Saturday, June 15, 2019

Gold Stocks “Launch” is in Line With Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Gary_Tanashian

I make the point in the title because the real fundamentals that matter for the gold stock sector must be in line at the beginning of a real bull phase or bull market for the sector. I make that point with the example of Q1 2016, when a very powerful gold stock “launch” erupted but in Q2 of that year we (NFTRH) were already advising a degrading of those fundamentals. A public article I wrote referenced this on May 30, 2016.

AMAT Chirps, b2b Ramps, Yellen Hawks and Gold’s Fundamentals Erode

What had happened in 2016 was that gold bottomed first, followed by the miners and silver. But then the whole raft of cyclical assets (commodities, stocks, etc.) bottomed and turned up. A cyclical party soon regenerated and the counter-cyclical gold stock sector was sent back to the hell it came from.

Saturday, June 15, 2019

The Rise of Silver and Major Economic Decline / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Hubert_Moolman

After a period of economic prosperity, it is a given that eventually a period of economic decline will follow. This is a well known reality.

Since at least the early 80s there has been a period of great economic prosperity. Yes, there were many recessions during that period, however, as a whole it has been a prosperous period.

Now, there are many signs that we are likely to get a period of serious economic decline. The type that has not been seen in many a lifetime of those living today.

Friday, June 14, 2019

Gold and Silver, Precious Metals: T-Minus 3 Seconds To Liftoff! / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

We take great pride in our research team’s ability to make accurate predictions and calls in the markets.  In addition to the many predictions and calls we’ve made over the past few years, our Gold prediction from October 2018 continues to astound many industry professionals. We receive emails from people asking how we were able to make such an incredible call in Gold 6 to 8 months before these price moves?  We politely tell these people that our research team and our proprietary predictive modeling tools assist us in finding and making these incredible predictions.  The simple answer is it takes hard work, specialized tools and a lot of skill and research.

Please take a minute to review some of our research from January 2019 that highlighted this incredible prediction for Gold and the supporting, more recent, research posts suggesting Silver is the real sleeper trade.

Friday, June 14, 2019

Silver Investing Trend Analysis - Video / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Silver price reluctantly followed the Gold higher early in the year to a late February peak of $16.20, following which it abruptly gave up all of its hard won gains for the year by making a new low early March at $15, breaking the preceding low of $15.45 and thus entering into a downtrend of a series of lower highs and lows where it remained until the Gold price came alive at the end of May 2019. Following which the Silver price busted out of its 2019 downtrend by hitting a recent high of $15.15 before succumbing to selling to bring the price down to its last close of $14.74 DOWN 5% for the year which compares against the Gold price up 4% for the year which illustrates the persistent under performance of the Silver price against the Gold price.

Friday, June 14, 2019

Soft Inflation Data and Concerned Draghi. How Will Gold Like It? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

U.S. consumer inflation has moderated recently. Trade wars go on. What the Fed will do now? Let’s not forget the recent ECB monetary policy meeting. It carries implications for both EUR/USD and gold. Just what are they?

Inflation Slows Down in May

The CPI rose just 0.1 percent in May, following an increase of 0.3 percent in April, the government said on Wednesday. It was the smallest hike since January. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, also increased 0.1 percent, for the fourth month in a row. Although the monthly numbers do not portend a revolution, May indicates eased inflationary pressure, mainly because of falling energy and used-vehicle prices.

Thursday, June 13, 2019

How Socialism Presidential Election 2020 Could Affect the Gold Market / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

The 2020 presidential election is already shaping up to be one of the most bitterly contested in history. The outcome could have enormous ramifications for all asset markets, including precious metals.

In the meantime, a lot can happen before November 2020 – especially with the Federal Reserve apparently set to turn dovish and cut interest rates this summer.

Some historical research into presidential election cycles suggests that the stock market tends to perform well heading into an election year. The incumbent administration tends to focus on padding economic statistics.

Wednesday, June 12, 2019

Perfect Storm Brewing for Price Inflation / Commodities / Inflation

By: MoneyMetals

A “perfect storm” is brewing for midwestern farmers. Unending rains have led to the flooding of tens of millions of acres of farmland. The deluge comes on the heels of years of low crop prices.

It has the makings of an agriculture disaster on a scale never seen before.

The nation may see a “perfect storm” in terms of food inflation. Prices for some farm commodities figure to be a lot higher in the months ahead as markets adjust to dramatically lower crop yields. This will be coupled with price hikes associated with tariffs on all manner of goods from China and elsewhere.

Wednesday, June 12, 2019

Gold Price Breaks to the Upside / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Michael_J_Kosares

COMEX speculator positions post largest single gain on record

Gold suddenly broke to the upside on the morning of Thursday, May 30th, 2019. After rising nearly $70 – a 5.4% gain and eight-straight days of posting gains, it took a breather on news that Mexico would take steps to stem migrant flow to the United States, thus avoiding the imposition of new tariffs.  We asked Zac Storella from Counting Pips, a widely-acknowledged expert on the COMEX Commitment of Traders reports, what he saw in last week’s numbers.  His response is worth  noting:

“This week’s change in speculative positions (Commitment of Traders) for gold jumped by a total of +69,427 net contracts. This is the largest one-week gain on record, according to the CFTC data dating back to 1986. The current net position (long positions minus short positions) is now at the most bullish level in over a year – showing that sentiment for gold is coming back into favor.

Wednesday, June 12, 2019

Silver Investing Trend Analysis / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Silver price reluctantly followed the Gold higher early in the year to a late February peak of $16.20, following which it abruptly gave up all of its hard won gains for the year by making a new low early March at $15, breaking the preceding low of $15.45 and thus entering into a downtrend of a series of lower highs and lows where it remained until the Gold price came alive at the end of May 2019. Following which the Silver price busted out of its 2019 downtrend by hitting a recent high of $15.15 before succumbing to selling to bring the price down to its last close of $14.74 DOWN 5% for the year which compares against the Gold price up 4% for the year which illustrates the persistent under performance of the Silver price against the Gold price.

Tuesday, June 11, 2019

Gold Surprise! / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: The_Gold_Report

Sector expert Michael Ballanger describes why he has swung from long to short on the precious metals and miners. Before we go any further, let it be known that in the days leading up to this missive, i have gone from "net long" to "net short" on gold, silver and the miners. Those receiving my email blasts and those following me on Twitter (@Miningjunkie) have been put on notice that this advance, while impressive in its blunt-force trauma, lacks the perfection of the Q4/2015 advance, which arrived from multiyear polar extremes in sentiment and COT structure setups.

All last week I was emailing and tweeting how frail this advance looked and why I was a seller. With Friday's COT, you have the reason:

Tuesday, June 11, 2019

Natural Gas Moves Into Basing Zone / Commodities / Natural Gas

By: Chris_Vermeulen

After an incredible rally in Natural Gas that our researchers called perfectly in November 2018, another opportunity for an upside price move appears to be setting up for later this year. We believe the current price lows, near $2.30, are setting up for a bounce and then will drop and form a basing pattern near $2.00 before rocketing higher.  It is this last move to the downside which will set up the incredibly deep price base and oversold conditions for the upside price move in late August/September 2019.

We’re issuing this research post to alert all of our followers to our research and to allow for proper price rotation for this base to set up and conclude before jumping into any false triggers that may occur on the Daily or Weekly charts.

Start by taking a look at this Monthly NG chart showing how extended high price peaks are usually followed by extended price declines.  It is very unlikely that any upside price move will begin before late August or early September 2019. 

Tuesday, June 11, 2019

U.S. Dollar Stall is Good for Commodities / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Donald_W_Dony

After months of advancing, the U.S. dollar's climb is showing signs of weakness.

Over the last five years, the greenback has risen almost 20 percent, whereas other world currencies have not been so lucky.

Monday, June 10, 2019

Gold Price Trend Analysis - Video / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Gold Price began 2019 with a continuation of it's strong December 2018 rally towards resistance at $1300 that was soon overcome propelling the Gold price higher to next resistance at $1350 by Mid February. Since when entered into a shallow downtrend all the way to the recent low of $1269. Which is particularly disappointing given that many Gold bugs had pinned hopes on safe haven demand in the aftermath of Trump trade war chaos tumbling stock markets since the start of May, not to mention a aircraft carrier group steaming towards the Persian Gulf, none of which is being reflected in the Gold price to date.

Monday, June 10, 2019

The Gold Price Golden Neckline… / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Rambus_Chartology

It’s hard to believe that the massive H&S consolidation pattern we’ve been following for several years began to develop all the way back in 2013 during the initial crash off the 2011 high. This weekly line chart shows the price action closing this week right on the neckline at 1350. Note how many touches the neckline has experienced from below with each one backing off. Now the question remains, how may bears are left to defend the 2013 neckline? There is a good chance that if they are exhausted that the price action could just spike right through the neckline this time around completing the massive H&S base which would be long term bullish. Big patterns lead to big moves.

Sunday, June 09, 2019

Gold Price Seasonal Trend Analysis / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

SEASONAL ANALYSIS

The most reliable seasonal patterns are for a strong January and February, weak April, May and July followed by a strong August and September which tends to be the best month of the year. Then the trend is expected to continue into the end of the year with variable reliability for October and November.

Sunday, June 09, 2019

Fed Rate Cuts Soon; Bitcoin Enthusiasts Join Wall Street in Bashing Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.

Coming up David Morgan of The Morgan Report joins me to discuss the ticking time bomb that is the trade war with China, why he believes flooding in the Midwest could lead to serious price inflation in food, and also gives us his outlook for the precious metals. Don’t miss my conversation with our good friend David Morgan, resource expert and silver market guru, coming up after this week’s market update.

It was a big week for gold, as prices for the yellow metal advanced toward new highs for the year. The gold market is putting in a 3.0% gain this week to trade at $1,345 an ounce.

Gold does face some formidable multi-year resistance in the $1,350 to $1,375 area. But if it can clear that hurdle and then blow through $1,400, it may be off to the races.

Turning to the white metals, silver has a lot more work to do get back on bullish technical footing. Silver’s price performance has lagged behind gold’s so severely that it trades at its biggest discount to gold in nearly 30 years. It could be a once-in-a-generation opportunity to buy silver on the cheap.

Sunday, June 09, 2019

1990s vs. 2010s - Which Expansion Will be Better for Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Ladies and Gentlemen, we have a tie! The current expansion already lasts as long as the economic boom that started in March 1991 and ended in March 2001. We invite you to read our today’s article, which compares both expansions and find out whether the current boom will be better for gold than the 1990s. 

Ladies and Gentlemen, we have a tie! The current expansion already goes on 120 months, the same as the economic boom lasting from March 1991 to March 2001. However, in the previous edition of the Market Overview, we suggested that the current expansion still has room to run. After all, the ongoing boom is very long, but this is because it is very weak. If the US economy is to replay the robust recovery of the 1990s in terms of GDP growth and not merely in terms of number of months, it could grow for additional couple of years.

Now, let’s compare our growth leaders in a more detailed way and draw valuable conclusions for the economic outlook and the gold market.