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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Wednesday, January 16, 2019

Rare earths deja vu: Chinese crackdown = higher prices / Commodities / Rare Earths

By: Richard_Mills

In a scene awfully familiar to those who follow the rare earths market, China is once again threatening to hatchet production of the valuable minerals used in high-tech, renewable energy and military applications.

Last week it was reported that the Chinese government published new guidelines designed to eliminate illegal mining and encourage more high-end processing. Those sterile words are code for “less polluting”.

Shutting down illegal rare earth mines is nothing new to the Chinese, who have found that the process of extracting rare earth oxides from ore and refining them into useable products has come at a high price to the environment.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Wednesday, January 16, 2019

Commodities Are the Right Story for 2019 / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Richard_Mills

The markets are up and down like a bride's nightgown, as my dad used to say, bitcoin is in the toilet, and tech stocks, once as steady as the banks, are as unreliable as an old Apple computer. If you’re reluctant to dip your toe back into the stock market, you’re not alone.

‘The Hunt for Red October’ was a great movie but nobody thought ‘Red October’ would actually happen. In October it did. Anyone that was invested saw their equities turn as red as a Russian submarine commander. The S&P 500 churned. When the calendar mercifully turned to November, the benchmark US stock index had fallen 8.5%, the worst month since February 2009 and the ugliest October since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. The Dow and the Nasdaq were equally pummeled.

And then it kept going. December was the worst month since the Great Depression. The financial talking heads couldn’t decide what was going on. The trade war with China, speculation that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates in December (it did) and slowing global growth, were all trotted out as culprits. Algorithmic trading and end-of-the-year tax selling also played a role, as did good old profit-taking by retail investors, who figured it was as good a time as any to exit a nine-year bull market.

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Commodities

Monday, January 14, 2019

New Shortfall in Production Capacity for Fabricated Silver and Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

The two largest private producers of bullion bars and rounds in the U.S. have gone defunct over the past two years. Premiums for silver bars and rounds are already on the rise as markets adjust to the lack of supply.

At present, demand for these products is manageable. A surge in buying activity, however, could lead to serious difficulty finding low-premium products.

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Commodities

Monday, January 14, 2019

Gold A Rally or a Bull Market? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Although the financial media conflates the two, there is a difference between a rally and a bull market.

A rally implies a rebound after or a reprieve from weakness. A bull market is higher highs and higher lows for a period of at least a few years.

Gold’s strength in the 2000s was not a rally, as many have deemed it, but a bull market. Gold’s rebound in 2016 was a rally.

Nevermind the Gold pundits who insist Gold is in an invisible or stealth bull market or even a correction. A market that pops for seven months then doesn’t make a new high for almost two and a half years is not a bull market.  

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Commodities

Monday, January 14, 2019

Will Natural Gas Breakout Or Breakdown Next? / Commodities / Natural Gas

By: Chris_Vermeulen

We called the move from $4.75 to $2.90 in Natural Gas, and our predictive modeling solutions are suggesting a new upside rally in price is setting up for early Spring.

Very cold weather across the Northwest and Eastern US, as well as moderate demand globally, should prompt a renewed rally in Natural Gas through at least March or April of 2019. A move to, or above, $3.30~$3.40 would indicate there is little chance of a Washout-Low price formation and that a new rally is in place.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Monday, January 14, 2019

Gold Stocks, Dollar and Oil Cycle Moves to Profit from in 2019 / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: readtheticker

Every thing has a cyclical manner, some more than others. And when price and the cycle runs together, it great to be in it for the ride! Of course fundamentals are the reason for a price move, yet the laws of nature seems to co ordinate fundamentals, price and time together, hence the outcome can be seen via a sine wave cycle. If you use some math called 'Bartels' (more here) you can scan many sine waves periods to see if they fit into your price time series, each time series will have it's own characteristics, some cycles will be a better with either a daily, weekly or monthly periods. Back testing the cycle is critical, as cycles do come into form and fall out of form, but over time they do add to the investors arsenal while working out the next risk reward price move.  Consider these possible big movers in 2019.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Sunday, January 13, 2019

Top Ten Trends Lead to Gold Price / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Jim_Willie_CB

The year 2018 was a memorable year of great transitions. They involved changes in the political arena. They saw enormous changes in the debt picture, for both the USGovt and the major Western corporations. They saw a struggle to terminate the QE bond monetization, laced with hype-inflation. They offered staggering damage to California, whose effects are easily 100 times greater than the World Trade Center fallout. They offered resistance to the US-led bully tactics, in slapping sanctions even on the US allies, a forecast by the Jackass two years ago. The globalist cabal agenda has been dealt a powerful damaging blow, perhaps lethal, during a year of great exposure for their criminality. The transitions offered a complete shift away from the perception of USMilitary full spectrum dominance. But the most important changes have come in the finance & economic sectors.

The Gold Standard has seen a paved road for its implementation, arrival, and acceptance. The road can be identified for its several major constructed arteries. The pathways are built by the Eastern nations, which will continue to champion the financial reform, and thus wrest global control from New York and London. History is being made. It will still take time, but the momentum is gathering in a notable and convincing manner. The common theme of all the leading factors is the movement away from the USDollar, a theme so popular and widespread that it has been given a name, de-Dollarization. In the next year, even the compromised corrupted Wall Street bank community will openly discuss that Gold must be the solution to the unresolved crisis.

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Commodities

Sunday, January 13, 2019

Silver: A Long Term Perspective / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Rambus_Chartology

Tonight I would like to show you a couple of long term charts for Silver that puts where silver is currently trading into perspective. We can look at the hourly charts or even the daily charts for the short term patterns, but if you really want know where a stock is relative to its history we need to look at the long term view. The more history a stock has the more relative the current price action is.

Lets start with a 16 year monthly chart for silver which seems like a long time but in the big picture it only shows us a small part of its history. The dominate chart pattern is the 2011 bear market downtrend channel which is almost perfectly parallel. I purposely left the top rail of the 2011 downtrend channel and the top rail of the 2016 triangle thin so you can see the critical area silver is now trading at, red circle. So far this month silver has traded as high as 15.95 which puts it right against the top rail of the 2011 bear market downtrend channel and the top rail of the 2016 triangle.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Saturday, January 12, 2019

Big Silver Move Foreshadowed as Industrial Panic Looms / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.

Coming up we’ll hear one of the more important interviews we’ve ever done on the broken nature of the precious metals’ futures exchanges, and what might be the driving force that ultimately destroys the confidence in these markets, paving the way to true price discovery. Mining analyst and precious metals expert David Jensen joins me to talk about how palladium might just be the straw that breaks the back of the paper market. Don’t miss this must-hear interview, coming up after this week’s market update.

As the government shutdown persists, and a declaration of national emergency by President Donald Trump looms, financial markets are unfazed. The Dow Jones Industrials have swung approximately 500 points higher so far this week.

However, the U.S. Dollar Index did hit a 3-month low on Wednesday. That helped boost oil prices in a big way. Crude climbed 10% to $53 a barrel.

The price action in precious metal markets is more subdued. Gold shows a modest gain of 0.4% this week to bring spot prices to $1,291 per ounce. The yellow metal flirted with the $1,300 level last Friday. More backing and filling may be needed before the market is ready to push through that resistance.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Saturday, January 12, 2019

Gold GDXJ Upside Bests GDX / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold miners’ exchange-traded funds are surging with gold powering higher.  These mounting gains are naturally fueling growing interest in the leading gold-stock investment vehicles.  Traders looking to deploy capital are wondering which major gold-stock ETF is superior, offering the best balance between upside potential, component fundamentals, and risks.  GDXJ takes the crown, besting its larger big brother GDX.

By my count, there are currently 14 gold miners ETFs trading in US markets.  But that’s not authoritative, as the broader ETF industry is constantly in flux.  These gold-stock ETFs collectively held $17.5b in net assets as of the middle of this week.  And two major ETFs utterly dominated, commanding fully 85.1% of all those gold-stock investments!  They are of course GDX and GDXJ, which dwarf everything else in this sector.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Friday, January 11, 2019

Is It Time To Prepare For The Precious Metals To Get Whacked? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Avi_Gilburt

This article was originally published on Sun Jan 6 for members of ElliottWaveTrader: Over the last several weeks, I have seen those that were absolutely certain back in September and October that gold was going to drop below $1,000 now turn into major bulls in the metals complex. The silver rally especially has gotten the attention of many metal’s traders, and has everyone now all bulled up for a major break out in the complex.

It really is amazing to watch how price extremes dictate the manner in which investor’s views are driven about a market. Yet, as Roy Prassad, one of our more astute members at Elliottwavetrader.net, noted: “the goal of Elliott Wave is to analyze sentiment, not participate in it.”

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Thursday, January 10, 2019

Will Powell’s Put Support Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Fed signals more patience with its monetary tightening, despite strong economy. Why? And what does it mean for the gold market?

Minutes from December FOMC Meeting and Gold

As everybody knows, in December the FOMC voted unanimously to raise interest rates for the fourth time in 2018. We have analyzed the implications of that hike for gold in two editions of the Gold News Monitor (here and here).

However, yesterday, the Fed published the minutes of its latest monetary policy meeting. The document shows that despite the apparent unanimity, the tensions were growing, as a “few” officials were actually arguing for the central bank to pause:

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Thursday, January 10, 2019

Gold Mine Production by Country / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Michael_J_Kosares

Gold mine production by country Divergent paths among the major global producers tell an important tale

Sources: MetalsFocus and the World Gold Council with permission.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Thursday, January 10, 2019

Silver Price Trend Forecast Target for 2019 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

My long standing approach to Silver is one of buying when cheap to invest and forget, for it only tends to come alive towards the end of precious metals bull runs as illustrated the last time I took a look at Silver on the 8th of May 2018 -

Silver Forecast 2018 and Beyond, Investing for the $35+ Price Spike!

In terms of a Silver market position then as is currently the case the silver market can usually be expected to be a dead market with the tendency to flat line not just for many months but even years as it tends to play second fiddle to Gold in terms of tradable swings, usually only really coming alive towards the latter stages of precious metal bull markets.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Wednesday, January 09, 2019

Silver Price Trend Forecast 2019 / Commodities / Global Debt Crisis 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is the 4th and final article in this series that concludes in a trend forecast for the Silver price 2019.

  1. Silver Price Trend Forecast 2018 Review
  2. Gold - Silver Ratio
  3. Silver Price Trend Analysis 2019
  4. Silver Price Trend Forecast Conclusion for 2019

The whole of this analysis has first been made available to Patrons who support my work.

So for immediate First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Tuesday, January 08, 2019

Did Strong December Payrolls Push Gold Prices Up? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

December payrolls were strong – but gold prices rose. What happened?

Job Creation Surprises Positively

U.S. nonfarm payrolls accelerated in December, beating expectations. The economy added 312,000 jobs last month, following a rise of 176,000 in November (after an upward revision) and significantly above 182,000 forecasted by the economists. The number was the biggest increase since February 2018. On an annual basis, the pace of job creation increased slightly last month to 1.8 percent.

What is important is that the gains were widespread, but the most impressive expansion occurred in education and health services (+82,000), leisure and hospitality (+55,000) and professional and business services (+43,000).

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Commodities

Tuesday, January 08, 2019

Gold Hits Our $1300 Price Target – What Next? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Early trading on January 4, 2019, saw Gold reach just above $1300 per ounce – confirming our price target from our research and posts on November 24, 2018.  The importance of this move cannot be under-estimated.  Traders and investors need to understand the recent rally in the metals markets are attempting to alert us that FEAR is starting to re-enter the market and that 2019 could start the year off with some extended volatility.

Our research has shown that Gold will likely rotate between $1270~1315 over the next 30~60 days before attempting to begin another rally.  Our next upside price target is near $1500.  We will continue to post articles to help everyone understand when and how this move will happen.  We expect Gold to rotate near the $1300 level for at least another 30 days before attempting another price rally.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Monday, January 07, 2019

Will the Momentum in Precious Metals Continue? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

The precious metals complex has enjoyed a nice run in recent months.

GDX has gained 25% since the September lows while GDXJ has gained 22% since its November low. Gold has rallied over $100/oz since its October low and Silver has surged in recent weeks.

The Gold community is getting excited again. They think the equity market is doomed and Gold has started a real bull run. That may be true but in the interim there are questions on the sustainability of recent strength.

Below we plot GDX with its advance decline (A/D) line and its RSI indicator. We already know that the A/D line has been carrying a few negative divergences.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Monday, January 07, 2019

Gold Golden Long-Term Opportunity / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Dan_Steinbock


As global jitters are escalating with economic uncertainty and market volatility, gold looks more attractive. But there’s a big difference between its short- and longer-term prospects.

Those analysts who believe that fear has made a comeback argue that gold is benefiting as equities slide and investors are increasingly concerned about the economic prospects of the U.S., China, Europe and Japan. Yet, even at $1,290, gold still remains more than 30% behind its all-time high of $1,898 in September 2011 amid the U.S. debt-limit crisis.

Although U.S. dollar has not strengthened as much as anticipated, the Fed’s rising rates have contributed to the fall in gold prices. In this view, a reversal may be unlikely because the investor assumption is that the Fed will continue to normalize, though perhaps slower than anticipated.

In the postwar era, such tightening meant a strengthening U.S. economy and a stronger dollar. But at the time, American economy was not haunted by budget and trade deficits or a debt burden. Today, it suffers from both twin deficits and a massive $22 trillion sovereign debt burden.

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Commodities

Monday, January 07, 2019

Natural Gas Through our $3.20 Target – What Next? / Commodities / Natural Gas

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our research team has been nailing the markets moves with our proprietary price modeling tools.  Our December 12, 2018 call that Natural Gas would collapse nearly 30% after reaching a price peak was a very bold call.  Who would have thought that predictive price modeling could be so accurate and could identify a move like this – or call for what is expected to happen next?

Back when Natural Gas breached the $4.60~4.80 range, our ADL predictive modeling system was suggesting a massive price anomaly was setting up.  These types of triggers are becoming more common as volatility in the general markets increases.  The ADL system suggested that a massive -30% downside price move would happen before the end of February 2019.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


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