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Why the Gold Bull Market is Far From Over

Commodities / Gold & Silver May 09, 2008 - 12:32 PM GMT

By: Julian_DW_Phillips

Commodities Some talk of the end of the credit crunch. Some say that the gold bull market has suffered severe damage, which will affect its long-term prospects. If we were to accept these statements then it would appear that the gold ‘bull' market is over. But are these statements acceptable and do they reflect the true picture underlying the gold [and silver] markets? To get the proper perspective let's stand back and look at the ‘big' picture.


Is the Worst Over?

Credit Crunch?

Not according to the I.M.F. An assessment by the International Monetary Fund that potential losses as a result of the credit crisis could exceed US$1 trillion, including warnings that further losses and write-downs on prime mortgages, commercial real estate, leveraged loans, and consumer finance were likely. The IMF's Global Financial Stability report put credit market losses at USD945bn, as of mid-March, with more losses expected for months to come. The report also stressed the fact that the credit crisis was impacting the full spectrum of the financial market in one way or another, with losses distributed between banks, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, and other investors. We note that credit card finance alonside car finance has been included in assets acceptable to the Fed as collateral, which tells us it is not over by a long shot.

U.S. Trade Deficit

February recorded a Trade deficit of $62.3 billion against a January deficit of $59.0. This still looks like a $720 billion deficit to us and with oil prices now at over $120 a barrel and Chinese imports still cheaper than local products and flooding in, the prospects are for a worse annual Trade deficit than ever before. And there is no real sign that this deficit is dropping.

Oil prices

With OPEC talking of a potential oil price of $200 a barrel something has to be done to stop more than a decline in the $; a stop must be put to the massive global scramble for resources by a combination of the developed world and the emerging world, because prices will continue to rise until they are so high that some will have to do without. This problem is about the massive rises in demand with far greater ones to come.

So are there solutions in the pipeline? It seems that the only solutions available to the authorities are existing market controls and proposed market controls on all types of markets, but not on a globally coordinated front . Unless there is global coordination such control will be completely inadequate.

“The actual prices of gold and silver will become simply academic.” 

For the entire report please visit www.GoldForecaster.com

By Julian D. W. Phillips
Gold-Authentic Money

Copyright 2008 Authentic Money. All Rights Reserved.
Julian Phillips - was receiving his qualifications to join the London Stock Exchange. He was already deeply immersed in the currency turmoil engulfing world in 1970 and the Institutional Gold Markets, and writing for magazines such as "Accountancy" and the "International Currency Review" He still writes for the ICR.

What is Gold-Authentic Money all about ? Our business is GOLD! Whether it be trends, charts, reports or other factors that have bearing on the price of gold, our aim is to enable you to understand and profit from the Gold Market.

Disclaimer - This document is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment. Gold-Authentic Money / Julian D. W. Phillips, have based this document on information obtained from sources it believes to be reliable but which it has not independently verified; Gold-Authentic Money / Julian D. W. Phillips make no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness. Expressions of opinion are those of Gold-Authentic Money / Julian D. W. Phillips only and are subject to change without notice.

Julian DW Phillips Archive

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