Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Thursday, September 22, 2016

Silver Price Forecast: Higher Silver Prices For Many Years To Come / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Hubert_Moolman

In a previous article, I highlighted how a Head and Shoulders Bottoming pattern on the silver chart
suggested that the silver rally since the beginning of 2016 is likely to continue.

This pattern has now matured nicely, thanks to the retrace to the breakout area. Below, is a silver chart (all charts from tradingview.com), with that pattern and the retrace to the breakout area highlighted:

Wednesday, September 21, 2016

Frack Sand: The Unsung Hero Of The OPEC Oil War / Commodities / Fracking

By: OilPrice_Com

The late-2014, Saudi-initiated oil-price war may have taken the ‘boom’ out of the US shale industry as it seriously threatened OPEC market share, but Saudi victory has been elusive: US shale has proven amazingly resilient. The industry has adapted quickly to the new playing field, and the unsung hero of a new uptick in drilling and investment isn’t just true grit—it’s sand.

The Saudi victory is equally dulled by the fact that it was not a decline in US shale production that rebalanced supply and demand; rather, it was chaos in Libya, militant attacks in Nigeria, massive fires in Canada and the destabilization of OPEC’s own Venezuela.

Wednesday, September 21, 2016

What’s Happening With Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Bob_Loukas

Robert Alexander writes: GOLD WEEKLY :  Using cycle timing, we should be close to a low for GOLD, but I am expecting an ICL.  An ICL is a quick sharp sell off into a low, and then a move higher.  It shakes out the bulls. I have pointed out Prior ICL’s  on the chart below, and you can see that they come roughly 4-5 months apart lately. We are 4 months from the ICL at the end of May, and I have been calling for a Deep Meaningful Trade-able LOW at the end of September / early October for several weeks.

Tuesday, September 20, 2016

Gold Fever / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Ed_Carlson

Gold Fever – as in "illness". Gold's bear market has been slow to get started. Rather it has played out as a consolidation since last June. But gold is now testing important support and despite bullish seasonality in September, we expect a breakdown in the metal to be forthcoming.

Gold fell $24.30/oz. last week and closed at $1,305.80 on the 89-dma and the December bull trendline. Resistance is at 1,365 (38.2% retracement of the 2011 bear market) and support is near 1,295.

Tuesday, September 20, 2016

Gold vs. Stocks and Commodities, Pre-FOMC / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Gary_Tanashian

We are well along in the precious metals correction and have downside targets for gold, silver and the miners.  In order for that to be a ‘buy’, the sector and macro fundamentals will need to be in order.  Some of those are represented by the gold ratio charts vs. various assets and markets.  Below are two important ones.

Gold vs. Stock Markets has been correcting the big macro change to the upside since leading the entire global market relief phase (potentially out of the grips of global deflation) earlier in the year.  A hold of these moving averages, generally speaking, keeps a key gold sector fundamental in play as the implication is that conventional casino patrons are choosing gold over their traditional go-to assets, stocks.  A breakdown from the moving averages and it’s back to Pallookaville for the gold “community”.

Monday, September 19, 2016

Is the Precious Metals Sector Correction Completing Now? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Clive Maund discusses how precious metals prices would be impacted by the Fed's interest rate decision this week.

The Precious Metals (PM) sector correction may be completing RIGHT NOW, with sector indices at the 2nd low of a potential Double Bottom. Whether it is or not depends on the outcome of the Federal Reserve meeting—if it announces a rate hike, then both the broad market and the PM sector can be expected to break sharply lower. If it doesn't—if it puts it off again till later, or never, then the PM sector should take off higher again. We cannot know in advance whether the Fed will hike or not, but we can be sure that its intentions have already been telegraphed to the 1%, so that they can position themselves to profit in advance.

Monday, September 19, 2016

Multiweek Correction in Gold and Silver Markets Continues / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Jack Chan charts gold and silver as the multiweek correction continues.

Monday, September 19, 2016

‘Hard’ Brexit Looms For Ireland / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: GoldCore

The risks that a ‘hard’ Brexit will have for Ireland has been outlined by economist Dan O’Brien. Having once worked for the European Commission as the EU mission’s economic and political affairs officer for Malta and having worked on a free trade deal, his opinions are worth noting.

O’Brien outlines the risks on the horizon in the Sunday Independent and the article is well worth a read as it highlights the risks posed by Brexit to the Irish economy.

Friday, September 16, 2016

Why Has Gold Stalled? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold’s young bull market has totally stalled out in the past couple months.  This major loss of momentum following gold’s powerful surges in 2016’s first half is really souring sentiment and vexing traders.  They are trying to figure out if gold’s recent consolidation drift is the dawn of a new bearish trend or a healthy pause within an ongoing bull.  The likely answer comes from understanding what’s causing gold’s high consolidation.

Back in mid-December right after the Fed’s first rate hike in 9.5 years, gold slumped to a miserable new 6.1-year secular low.  That was driven by heavy gold-futures selling from speculators, who were utterly convinced higher rates are gold’s mortal nemesis.  But with bearishness so extraordinary and investors’ gold allocations so low, a mighty mean reversion higher for gold was very likely in 2016 as I wrote in late December.

Friday, September 16, 2016

Trump or HIlary? Which Presidents Have Been Best for the Gold Market? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

In previous articles, we have examined the gold’s performance in different election cycle years. Now, we deepen our analysis and investigate the behavior of the shiny metal in each presidential cycle in more detail. We analyze how gold performed under each President and which governing party (or whether the new President is an incumbent or a newcomer) affects the gold market the most.

The first cycle ran from 1973 to 1976, when Richard Nixon (who in 1971 closed a gold window), and later, after the Watergate scandal, Gerald Ford were in office. As the gold standard was abandoned, while inflation and uncertainty surged, it was a good period for the shiny metal, which rallied 114.27 percent.

Friday, September 16, 2016

Deutsche Bank Initiates Coverage of Silver Wheaton / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: The_Gold_Report

Citing a strong balance sheet and a large portfolio of diverse gold and silver streaming assets worldwide, Deutsche Bank has initiated coverage of Silver Wheaton with a Buy rating.

Friday, September 16, 2016

War is Peace, Silver is Plentiful, and Other Misconceptions / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

The urgency for owning a financial put against the stupidity of central planners and politicians grows by the minute.

We continue to witness a multifaceted array of failure heaped upon failure while repeating history on a dramatic scale.

One of the great new wonders of the modern world is the credibility given to high profile economists.

Thursday, September 15, 2016

Crude Oil Prices: Investors Getting Comfortable with New Levels? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nicholas_Kitonyi

When the price of oil breached above the $50 level, everyone thought alas, we could be hitting $70 before the end of the year. It was a steady rally that appeared to have turned the tide completely. However, things did not turn out as earlier predicted. Within no time, oil prices dropped again below $50 and have since failed to reach those levels. If anything, there are fresh fears that the price of crude oil could drop below $40 if the production levels remain unchecked.

Thursday, September 15, 2016

Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast 2016 September Update / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadeem_Walayat

At the start of this year the prevailing mood in the oil market was not just one of doom and gloom but of catastrophe as the oil price sunk below $30, skidding by the middle of February to virtually touch $25, a period during which many prominent analysts and investment banks such as Goldman Sachs all of whom were bearish on the prospects for oil price this year even suggesting that the oil price could sink to as low as $10 (Standard Chartered) which meant that the oil producers, the frackers and even a string of nations such as Russia, Nigeria and Venezuela were on the fast track towards going bust as their oil profits that financed state spending budget deficits evaporated.

Thursday, September 15, 2016

Gold Waiting on the US Dollar to Begin its Intermediate Decline / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Gary_Savage

Gold is flagging above the 200 week moving average while it waits for the dollar to generate the downward leg of its intermediate cycle.

Thursday, September 15, 2016

Precious Metals Entering, Stocks and Bonds Exiting Bull Market / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Jeb_Handwerger

Summary
A)Stocks have been in an uptrend for more than five years and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has more than tripled since 2008 lows.
B)I am concerned that these gains are overinflated and pumped higher through these policies of the Central Bankers and stocks are way overvalued and extremely overbought.
C)Because we have not seen a meaningful correction in the Dow in more than seven years, the chance of a significant bear market remains higher than ever.
D)I believe the Dow-Gold ratio is about to turn in favor of precious metals in a big way.
E)The Fed raising rates could be good for precious metals as investors may finally rotate out of overvalued stocks in search for equities backed by precious metals.

Wednesday, September 14, 2016

Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast 2016 Update / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadeem_Walayat

At the start of the year the prevailing mood in the oil market was not just one of doom and gloom but of catastrophe as the oil price sunk below $30, skidding by the middle of February to virtually touch $25, a period during which many prominent analysts and investment banks such as Goldman Sachs all of whom were bearish on the prospects for oil price this year even suggesting that the oil price could sink to as low as $10 (Standard Chartered) which meant that the oil producers, the frackers and even a string of nations such as Russia, Nigeria and Venezuela were on the fast track towards going bust in as their oil profits that financed state spending budget deficits evaporated.

Wednesday, September 14, 2016

The Gold To Housing Ratio As A Valuation Indicator / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Dan_Amerman

The Gold to Housing ratio is a quite useful measure for evaluating relative values between real estate and gold, and also has an interesting historical track record for identifying turning points in long-term gold price trends.  In light of the surge in gold prices in 2016, and the continuing strength in housing – it is worthwhile revisiting this basic measure, because the results aren't at all what most people likely think they are.

Wednesday, September 14, 2016

GDXJ Gold Stocks - A Diamond in the Rough / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016

By: Rambus_Chartology

It wasn’t until yesterday that I could draw in a possible bottom rail of a possible diamond pattern on the GDXJ. This potential diamond pattern has been forming since the first of July. As it stands right now the diamond pattern has completed five reversal points which theoretically puts it into a reversal pattern category. With that said the bounce yesterday may have started the all important 6th reversal point to the upside which if completed would make this diamond a consolidation pattern to the upside. Keep in mind this potential diamond is still developing with no resolution either way yet.

Tuesday, September 13, 2016

There Is Only One Right Way to Do a Precious Metals IRA / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: MoneyMetals

A small handful of outfits in our industry recently sprang up and started heavily promoting a so-called “self-storage” or “LLC” IRA. The pitch is for you to establish an LLC company to store the metals on behalf of your IRA in your home (or nearby).

At first glance, it sounds like an attractive option. Investors buy metals to increase privacy and control. Some do not want to rely on third-party vaults and would prefer having personal access to their metals 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. We totally agree with this sentiment when it comes to precious metals that you personally and directly own. But anyone considering this “self-storage IRA” scheme should be extremely careful and aware of the risks.