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Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Monday, July 29, 2019

Gold ETF That Obliterates its Competition / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: The_Gold_Report

Bob Moriarty of 321Gold profiles a precious metals ETF that has "absolutely obliterated its main competition." The U.S. Global GO GOLD and Precious Metal Miners ETF (NYSE: GOAU) just had its two-year anniversary at the end of June, and since inception, the fund has absolutely obliterated its main competition.

GOAU delivered a remarkable 41% since inception through July 24, crushing the hugely popular VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) and VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), which were up 32.7% and 27.6% over the same period.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Monday, July 29, 2019

Google News Articles and Searches for Recession and Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Everyone is discussing recession right now. But how much do they actually chatter about it? Does this talk reflect or change people’s perception? And the key question is: can the world-related indices predict the recession? Are they useful for the precious metals investors?

It turns out that yes! At least to some extent. Let’s start with the R-word index created by The Economist. It counts how many stories in the The Washington Post and The New York Times are using the word “recession” in a quarter. The idea behind the indicator is that economic downturn coincides with a surge in the frequency of the that scary world starting with R. The index surges when recessions are on the minds of people and the financial journalists who write articles about them. And, indeed, it has been pretty good at spotting economic turning points over the past three decades. As one see in the figure below, the R-word index signaled the start of recessions in America in 1990, 2001, and 2007.

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Commodities

Sunday, July 28, 2019

Gold Price Breakout - Trend Forecast 2019 July Update / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Houston we have lift off! So the gold price took off like a rocket in commemoration of the 50th anniversary of the Apollo 11 Launch and Lunar landings. One small step for precious metals one giant leap for gold bugs as the gold price barely paused at a series of resistance levels, $1300, $1350, $1370, $1400, none managed to hold gold in check for more than a couple of days as the price gravitated towards a rendezvous with $1450, which the gold price hit a week ago before retreating to currently stand at $1419.

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Commodities

Sunday, July 28, 2019

Silver Outperforming Gold Price / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Zeal_LLC

Silver has blasted higher in the last couple weeks, far outperforming gold.  This is certainly noteworthy, as silver has stunk up the precious-metals joint for years.  This deeply-out-of-favor metal may be embarking on a sea-change sentiment shift, finally returning to amplifying gold’s upside.  Silver is not only radically undervalued relative to gold, but investors are aggressively buying.  Silver’s upside potential is massive.

Silver’s performance in recent years has been brutally bad, repelling all but the most fanatical contrarians.  Historically silver prices have been mostly driven by gold, with the white metal amplifying moves in the yellow metal.  Silver has generally leveraged gold by at least 2x in the past.  And rarely silver skyrockets as higher prices and bullish sentiment feed on themselves in powerful virtuous circles fueling huge gains.

Silver’s legendary upside is largely the result of it being such a tiny market.  Silver’s leading fundamental authority is the Silver Institute.  In its latest World Silver Survey covering 2018, it reported that total world demand ran 1033.5m ounces last year.  That was worth a mere $16.2b at 2018’s average silver prices, a rounding error in markets terms.  That was just 1/11th the size of last year’s world gold demand worth $179.4b!

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Commodities

Sunday, July 28, 2019

Cobalt to Share EV Battery Duties with Nickel / Commodities / Electric Cars

By: Richard_Mills

In the spring of 2018 Tesla came out with a bold prediction: bringing the amount of cobalt used in their Model 3 battery cells down to zero. 

“Cells used in Model 3 are the highest energy density cells used in any electric vehicle. We have achieved this by significantly reducing cobalt content per battery pack while increasing nickel content and still maintaining superior thermal stability,” the company stated in its Q1 2018 update letter. “The cobalt content of our Nickel-Cobalt-Aluminum cathode chemistry is already lower than next-generation cathodes that will be made by other cell producers with a Nickel-Manganese-Cobalt ratio of 8:1:1,” Tesla boasted. 

In the quest to reduce input costs, be socially responsible and to provide longer driving ranges, like Tesla, those other cell producers are wanting to reduce the amount of cobalt used in their EV batteries and increase the content of nickel. Typically EV batteries use NCA or NMC type lithium-ion - 60% of the world’s cobalt supply comes from the DRC where mining it is controversial.

Tesla is ahead of its competitors with respect to this switch. The company only uses 5% cobalt in their electric vehicle battery metals (the Model 3 uses 2.8% cobalt) versus 30% across the industry (eg. four times less than Volkswagen). 

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Saturday, July 27, 2019

Natural Gas Sets Up Two New Trades – Here They Are / Commodities / Natural Gas

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Before we discuss these incredible trade setups in the Energy sector, we have to discuss the continued shifting global economy and how that relates to these setups.  Nearly three weeks ago, we posted a research article suggesting Crude Oil would call to levels near $50 over the next 30+ days, then stall for about 45 days before falling further and potentially attempting new lows near $40 ppb.  It is important to understand certain aspects of the global economy, economic demand and how it relates to seasonal patterns for Energy. 

We believe the move lower is Crude Oil is related to a supply glut that continues to plague the global markets while global economic trade, shipping, and activity continue to weaken.  Too much oil supply with weakening global economic activity means Crude Oil will likely waffle lower until this dynamic changes. 

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Commodities

Saturday, July 27, 2019

Gold At 6 Year High In Euros At €1,288 as ECB Says Outlook Is “Worse and Worse” / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: GoldCore

Gold rose to a six and a half year high in euros at €1,288/oz yesterday prior to giving up the gains as it succumbed to profit taking in volatile trading during and after the ECB meeting.

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Commodities

Friday, July 26, 2019

Silver Investing Trend Analysis and Price Forecast 2019 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Formulating a Trend Forecast

The long-term picture is of the Silver price being stuck in a trading range of between $21 and $14 pending a breakout higher with the current resistance at $15.25. Then resistance at $16,25, $18.50 and finally $21.

The silver price only really tends to come alive during a monetary crisis of sorts be it financial or inflation, stock market panic etc. So is there a crisis on the horizon? Well whilst Trump's china trade war is stressing the system a bit, it's not exactly reached the point yet where each side is threatening military action and trade embargo's so we are not quite there yet. Whilst many may argue that another financial crisis is brewing out there, perhaps in student and auto loans. But again we are not quite there yet hence Silver remaining in hibernation. Whilst the US economy may be slowing, it's not exactly teetering on the brink of recession yet.

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Commodities

Friday, July 26, 2019

Precious Metals Continue to Look Higher / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Avi_Gilburt

Last weekend, the important point of note was that silver had basically run out of room. It had a series of 1’s and 2’s set up for it to “melt up,” but it had to do so rather soon. Well, this past week, I would say that silver finally followed through and it took it directly to the level at which I noted on the chart was our next major resistance level. In fact, we were almost able to top tick the high of the week right at our resistance point, at which time I sent out an alert when I suspected that a pullback was imminent. Within minutes after that alert, silver began its pullback within wave iv.

The reason this is a major resistance level is that it is the 1.00 extension off the low we struck in 2018. Oftentimes, this could present us with an a-b-c corrective structure, wherein a=c. And, for this reason, I have been very cautious about silver holding over the 15.90 region. As long as it holds that support, and continues higher, it makes it less likely (but not impossible) that this rally is a corrective rally pointing us down to levels below those struck in 2018 for a final low.

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Commodities

Friday, July 26, 2019

Can Silver Lead Precious Metals Higher Still? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

It’s not true that yesterday’s session in precious metals was uneventful. While gold and mining stocks didn’t do much, silver moved a bit above its previous high, closing at a fresh 2019 high. Sounds pretty remarkable, doesn’t it? In today’s analysis, we’ll put silver’s breakout into proper perspective and examine if the white metal has much more room to run.

Let’s dive in to the silver chart. The situation there seems to have changed - but is it really the case?

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Friday, July 26, 2019

Gold Is Your Life Insurance / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Jared_Dillian

I have always secretly wanted to work at a precious metals bullion dealer. I love gold. And silver and platinum. I love them philosophically, and I also just like shiny rocks.

But if you think about it, trading metals is a really weird business.

Say you are bullish on silver and want to speculate on it, thinking it will appreciate in price. You can buy the ETF, yes, or you can buy silver miners, but the most straightforward way to invest in silver is just to buy coins or bars.

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Commodities

Thursday, July 25, 2019

Silver Price Target during the Next Bull Market / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

It is time to explore the details of our Gold vs. Silver ratio research and to start to understand the potential for profits within this move in precious metals.  The first part of our research article highlighted the Gold vs. Silver ratio and why we believe the “reversion process” that is taking place in price could be an incredible opportunity for traders. 

Historically, when the Gold vs. Silver ratio reaches an extreme level, and precious metals begin to rally, a reversion within the ratio takes place, which represents a revaluation process for silver prices compared to gold prices.  This typically means that the prices of Silver will accelerate to the upside as the price of gold moves higher – resulting in a decrease in the ratio level.

This reversion process related to precious metals pricing is an opportunity for traders to take advantage of an increased pricing advantage to generate profits.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Thursday, July 25, 2019

Silver Should Pause At $16.75 Before Next Rally Starts / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our advanced Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting that the current Silver rally may be nearing a point where the price will pause and retrace a bit before advancing further.  The incredible breakout rally over the past few weeks in Silver was a real surprise for many investors.  The sleepy shiny metal that everyone thought was dormant broke well above the $15.50 level on huge volume and continued to rally to levels near $16.65.

We published some incredible research regarding the longer-term potential for precious metals – specifically the potential for Silver as the Gold/Silver ratio continues to decline.  Please take a minute to read this research post PART I.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Thursday, July 25, 2019

The Third World Is Imploding: An Argument for Investment in Gold Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: The_Gold_Report

In this interview with Maurice Jackson of Proven and Probable, Jayant Bhandari presents his world view and discusses how it meshes with investment in the precious metals markets.

Maurice Jackson: Joining us for a conversation is Jayant Bhandari, the founder of the world-renowned Capitalism and Morality seminar, and a highly sought-out advisor to institutional investors. Mr. Bhandari, welcome to the show, sir.

Jayant Bhandari: Thank you very much for having me, Maurice.

Maurice Jackson: Always glad to have you on our program, sir. We have a number of topics to address that are important for members of our audience to be aware of that may have an impact on their investment decisions. I would like to begin our discussion by addressing geopolitics in areas of the world that many investors and those in the media identify as emerging economies. But in previous interviews you've pointed out that these are not emerging economies but they're Third World economies, and they will remain Third World economies. Let's began in Latin America and go to Venezuela. What has your attention there and why?

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Thursday, July 25, 2019

Will Powell Cutting US Interest Rates Triggering Gold Price Rally? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Yesterday we wrote about Draghi, so today Powell is our hero. Only one week separates us from the pivotal FOMC meeting. What should gold investors expect?

First Fed Cut Since 2008

In a week, the Fed may deliver its first interest rate cut since 2008. Given the market odds, the move is practically a foregone conclusion. Futures traders assign a 100-percent probability of a cut. The bone of contention is the size of the reduction: there are 76.5-percent chances of a standard 25-basis point cut and 23.5-percent odds of a 50-basis point slash. As Powell did nothing to alter these expectations, the U.S. central bank now has to deliver a cut, if it does not want to upset the financial markets. However, the 50-basis point reduction sounds be a bit too much. The economy is not yet in recession, and you do not fire a bazooka as an insurance just in case!

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Wednesday, July 24, 2019

Financial Media Elite Defensively Bash “Useless” Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

At least the Financial Times now has come clean about its hostility to gold – as well as to free markets and elementary journalism.

Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA) friend Chris Kniel of Orinda, California, sent to the newspaper's chief economic columnist, Martin Wolf, the excellent summary of gold and silver market manipulation just written by gold researcher Ronan Manly.

Wolf replied derisively and dismissively: "This is a matter of absolutely no importance whatsoever. Who cares about the prices of useless metals?"

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Commodities

Wednesday, July 24, 2019

Draghi or Lagarde: A Meaningful Difference for Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

In November, Christine Lagarde will replace Mario Draghi as the ECB President. Will gold warm up to her more than to Draghi? It remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: Super Mario will not leave his position just like that. Gold investors should be prepared for his Grand Finale.

Mario’s Grand Finale?

In June, the ECB became more dovish, as it postponed the possible beginning of the interest rate hiking from the end of 2019 to the mid-2020. Shortly after the central banks’ monetary policy meeting, at the annual conference in Sintra, Portugal, Draghi delivered a mini ‘whatever it takes’ speech, sending even more forceful signal about the upcoming monetary accommodation. Last month, we wrote in the Gold News Monitor that “the European central bankers are getting more worried about the state of the Eurozone economy and may adopt an even more dovish stance in the near future”.

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Commodities

Tuesday, July 23, 2019

Silver Outlook Is 'Excellent' / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: The_Gold_Report

The silver market is on the upswing but consolidation could be in the offing, according technical analyst Clive Maund. Some weeks back we had correctly surmised that gold's gathering strength would rub off on silver and cause it to start catching up, so we bought a range of silver ETFs and stocks, a move which has paid off well as they have spiked quite dramatically in the recent past.

Starting with silver's 10-year chart, we can see that its presumed giant double bottom is starting to look more and more like the genuine article, with the price starting to advance away from the second low of the pattern.

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Commodities

Tuesday, July 23, 2019

Why The Coming Silver Rally Might Be The Greatest / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Hubert_Moolman

In the last one hundred years there have been some great silver rallies. Some have been greater than others though.

The economic conditions underlying the different silver rallies were not all the same. Obviously those that occurred during conditions most conducive to silver rallies were the great performers.

The coming silver rally could be the greatest especially since it potentially has most conditions in common with the great silver rallies.

Gold/Silver Ratio (GSR)

The most ideal time for a silver rally relative to the Gold/Silver ratio is after a major peak in the GSR and as close to the all-time high as possible. This is because the Gold/Silver ratio is to silver rallies much like cycling down a hill is compared to cycling up a hill is to a cyclist. 

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Tuesday, July 23, 2019

Gold & Gold GDX Stocks Ripping. What’s Next? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

It was a huge week for the gold stocks. GDX gained nearly 7% while GDXJ surged over 10%.

Gold hit $1450/oz after Thursday before selling off Friday. Silver met the same fate on Friday but managed to close the week up over 6% and at a new 52-week high.

Let’s take a look at the current technicals.

Gold closed the week just below $1427/oz. If it remains above $1420-$1425, then it is likely to trend towards $1475/oz, which is the only resistance between $1425 and $1525.

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