Best of the Week

Thursday, May 29, 2008

Crude Oil Bubble About to Burst? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Gary_Dorsch

“A trend in motion, will stay in motion, until some outside force, knocks it off its course!” After watching the parabolic rise in crude oil prices, doubling from a year ago, to above $130 a barrel last week, central bankers who under-estimated the power and resiliency of the “crude oil vigilantes”, are now praying for a “Bubble” that is destined to burst under its own weight, and at a moment's notice.

In an interview with The Daily Telegraph, one of the world's biggest hedge fund traders, Mr George Soros said although the weak US dollar, depleting supplies from aging oil fields, government fuel subsidies, and record Chinese and Indian demand could explain the parabolic surge in energy prices, the crude oil market is also significantly inflated by speculation. “Speculation is increasingly affecting the price, which has a parabolic shape, which is characteristic of bubbles,” he said.

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Thursday, May 29, 2008

The Oil Price- We are Living in the Last Days of Cheap Resources / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: David_Vaughn

It looks like we may be paying 5 dollars a gallon for gasoline before the end of the summer.

There seems to be a great deal of speculation as to why the oil price is rising. Are the oil companies simply gouging American citizens? Perhaps OPEC is doing the gouging. Or maybe it would help things if the United States allowed for refineries to be built and oil to be drilled here in our own country.

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Thursday, May 29, 2008

Gold Slumps on Strong Dollar / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Adrian_Ash

SPOT GOLD PRICES gave back an overnight rally early in London on Thursday, flirting with a two-week low beneath $890 per ounce as crude oil fell 0.6%, the US Dollar rose, and world stock markets continued to gain.

"There is not much speculative participation" in the Gold Market right now, according to one London fund manager.

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Thursday, May 29, 2008

Gold Screaming Bear Market Targetting $650- Yorba TV Show / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Here are the topics for todays television show on www.yorba.tv Thursday at 4:00 pm EDT.

The first topic is the making of a head and shoulders pattern.  Chart # 1 shows the price of gold for the past year.  Let me point out an obvious level of resistance on the way up last fall.  In early November, gold bounced up against resistance at 850 and fell back.  On the second attempt, it cut through resistance, but fell back to retest it in January 2008.  

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Thursday, May 29, 2008

Laws to Prevent 'Investment' Buying Oil, Gold and Silver?- Part1 / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Julian_DW_Phillips

The chairman of a Senate oversight committee, Joseph Lieberman, has said he is considering legislation to place limits on large institutional investors in commodities markets, which have posted record prices this year in agricultural products and oil. The chairman of the Senate Homeland Security and Government Affairs Committee said that the legislation would be aimed at speculators and other investors who use commodities as a way to hedge against swings in other investment instruments like stocks and the dollar.

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Thursday, May 29, 2008

The Solution to Peak Oil – A Crude Oil Super Spike! / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadeem_Walayat

We may be witnessing a possible solution to the Peak Oil dilemma in the formation of an unsustainable speculation driven crude oil price super spike. The impact of which will be to shock corporate and private consumers into making the necessary changes in the near future to be able to better adapt to the real impact of Peak Oil which will mean the reduction of crude oil supply and hence fuel shortages.

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Wednesday, May 28, 2008

Crude Oil $130 and Beyond / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Roger_Conrad

Markets have a way of humbling even the most prescient prognosticator. That's definitely been the case for oil this decade.

There have been perfectly good reasons why oil prices couldn't break, let alone hold, every perceived milestone it's hit and passed in recent years—from the $20 level taken out in the run-up to the Iraq war to the $100 mark burst through this year. But even with a lot of very smart people betting against it, black gold has pushed on through, and the next impassible point has been shoved higher still.

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Wednesday, May 28, 2008

Coal Appears to Have Completed Near-term Correction / Commodities / Coal

By: Mike_Paulenoff

As long as this morning's pullback low at 49.80 in the Market Vectors Coal ETF (NYSE: KOL) contains any forthcoming weakness, my pattern work is "warning" me that the KOL has completed a near-term correction within an otherwise still powerful bullish channel, and has turned up for a retest of the prior high at 54.00, likely on the way to new highs at 56.00.

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Wednesday, May 28, 2008

Energy and Resources in High Demand / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Aden_Forecast

There seems to be no stopping the high flying oil price as it leaps above $130, a price that seemed unlikely just last December. The growth in oil demand will continue to be driven by China and Asia , in spite of the U.S. economic slowdown.

In fact, according to the International Energy Agency, China, India , Russia and the Middle East will consume more crude than the U.S. , for the first time. Oil use worldwide will increase 2% this year because of the emerging markets. So with demand as robust as it is, any possible supply disruption will simply push oil up further.

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Wednesday, May 28, 2008

Gold Follows Crude Oil Slide / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Adrian_Ash

THE PRICE OF PHYSICAL GOLD slumped another $18 at the London opening on Wednesday, falling to an eight-session low as crude oil slid yet again.

European equity markets turned sharply higher for the first time in a week – gaining 1.5% in Paris – while bond prices fell on news of accelerating inflation in Germany , the Eurozone's largest single economy.

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Wednesday, May 28, 2008

Gold Technically Damaged / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Mark_OByrne

Gold's sharp sell off yesterday (Gold closed at $907.40 down $18.60; Silver at $17.45 down 79 cents) has continued. Gold traded sideways in Asia before selling off again late in Asia and in early trading in Europe. Stock markets in Asia were mixed overnight but European markets have recovered from early losses and the FTSE is up nearly 0.5% in the session so far.

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Wednesday, May 28, 2008

Gold Alternative Elliott Wave Counts / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Joe_Nicholson

“We've made no secret of viewing the current bullishness as a “sucker's rally” until proven otherwise, and will continue to seek verification for this view, with an open mind towards changing our outlook if dictated by price action. The current advance… could easily extend to the 5-week sma, at about $920. Strong resistance also exists at $955. Dollar strength seems technical and artificial, rather than based on strong fundamentals, but may yet last just long enough to provide the best gold buying opportunity in months.” ~ Precious Points: So Far So Good, May 17, 2008

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Tuesday, May 27, 2008

Leverage Alternatives for Junior Mining Shares / Commodities / Options & Warrants

By: Dudley_Baker

Investing in the junior mining shares over the last year or two has been considered risky at best and perhaps insanity by some investors. So, why would we be looking for leverage on the junior mining sector when the shares and the mining indices are hardly keeping up with the price of the bullion, gold or silver? Why not just purchase gold or silver? The simple answer is that many analysts believe the juniors will eventually break out and greatly out perform (as they have historically) and will reward investors beyond their dreams. Currently, there are signs of a bottom forming and thus it is a great time to discuss different forms of leverage for those investors willing to take on slightly more risk than merely purchasing the junior mining shares.

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Tuesday, May 27, 2008

Importance of Covariance between Agri-Food Prices and Gold / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities

By: Ned_W_Schmidt

Prices are influenced by two forces. Inflation, caused by monetary expansion, is an increase in the general price level. That influence is felt directly though domestic prices rising and through a depreciating national money forcing imported prices higher. Additionally, prices on a relative basis can change. In the Agri-Food sector both influences have been felt. Prices for Agri-Food commodities have moved higher on a relative basis as a massive global demand shift has occurred.

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Tuesday, May 27, 2008

Cyclical Corrections In Secular Trends  / Commodities / Resources Investing

By: Captain_Hook

That is what is happening right now in stocks, commodities, and currencies, as the secular trends that were prevalent in all three asset groups up until mid-May will reassert themselves at the appropriate time, in the not too distant future. For stocks, this will involve a newer trend lower in both absolute and relative terms. For currencies and commodities the understanding is not so straightforward however, where all of the former are depreciating against the later being the important take-away. As per our title however, in the meantime cyclical (intermediate-term) corrections that can last for months are in play at present, meaning commodities could correct lower for some time (months) as the US Dollar Index ($) works off an oversold condition.

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Tuesday, May 27, 2008

Don't Blame Crude OIl Speculation- Commodity Prices Are Driven by Fundamentals / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Frank_Holmes

John Derrick writes: U.S. Global Investors (Nasdaq: GROW ) recently hosted a webcast titled “Energy and Commodities Trends: Speculative or Sustainable?” to provide a closer look at the current strength in natural resources prices. Our timing for this topic was good: oil prices hit a record $135 a barrel last week and drivers get more and more depressed every time they pull up to the gas pump.

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Tuesday, May 27, 2008

Gold Dips as Crude Oil Gains / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Adrian_Ash

SPOT GOLD PRICES ticked lower in early action on Tuesday, slipping just below the tight trading range seen on Monday, when London and New York – the center of world Gold Trading – were closed for public holidays.

Crude oil meantime rose above $133 per barrel after militants hit key pipelines in Nigeria .

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Tuesday, May 27, 2008

Middle Eastern Gold Demand Surges in 1st Quarter / Commodities / Gold & Silver

By: Mark_OByrne

With markets in the U.S. and UK closed yesterday for US Memorial Day and UK bank holiday, gold traded sideways in slow trade in Asia and Europe. Stock markets in Asia were positive overnight but European markets have come under pressure and the FTSE has given up its early morning gains to trade flat for the session so far.

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Monday, May 26, 2008

Raising Margin Requirements May Spike Oil Prices Higher / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Mack_Frankfurter

Commodity pricing theory mainly focuses on the transference of a “risk premia” from risk-adverse hedgers to speculators. This insurance-like context was first proposed by Keynes (1930) in his theory of normal backwardation. Essentially, Keynes believed that hedgers have to pay speculators a risk premium to convince them to accept their risk.

Dr. Richard Spurgin (2000) explained it in the following way. There are four types of participants in futures markets: short hedgers, long hedgers, speculators and arbitrageurs. Short hedgers are commercial producers and long hedgers are commercial consumers.

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Monday, May 26, 2008

Why Crude Oil Prices have Spiked Higher / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andy_Sutton

Maybe it is just bad timing. Maybe our luck has run out. Whatever the case, it is downright unfortunate that the full effects of skyrocketing world oil supplies had to be realized during the silly season of a presidential election cycle. It is virtually a lock at this point that what needs to be said will be left unsaid and what needs to be done will be left undone. This week as crude oil pierced the $130/bbl mark and headed all the way above $135 before pulling back a multiple of reasons were offered. Some have merit while others do not even deserve mentioning.

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